Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 8

[spider-neil]

$900m as the first profit point is much too high. TASM cost $230m production wise and conservatively it's marketing budget would be about $100m. Yet sony was more than happy with its $750m total.

Enough to option 3 sequels essentially.

You could argue Sony green lit a sequel because they are over the hump of the reboot/origin and expect more from the sequel.

 

[kalelvis]

Something to consider is that for sci fi and cbms, the movies serve as glorified commercials for a million other licensed products from toys to blankets to posters etc. Home video alone brings in tens of millions of dollars. Even a bomb like GL brought in almost 20 million in DVD/Blu Ray sales. Avengers brought in almost 100 million in home video without counting vod, cable etc). So, if we can safely assume that MoS will do half of Avengers home video business (just using 50% for the easy math) then that is about 50mil in profit. Any company (movie or otherwise is happy to get 50 million in profit....

While it is interesting to see the studio accounting sheets they are rarely accurate. Hollywood has a long history of baking numbers to keep net profits at zero to exclude payouts to talent and crew on the backend.

When a big movie that has tons of merchandising breaks even at the box office, there is usually already a big pile of money sitting around just from toy profits.

Man of Steel is likely already profitable especially since FX has already scooped up the tv rights and that they did so before the competition hit at the box office.

A movie doesn't have to bring in tens of millions of dollars a day to have legs. Even holding on to an average of a couple of million a day can lead to big bucks in a long run. MoS will be in first run theatres likely through early fall and then have a long second run that lasts past its release on home video.

Even if some people are disappointed by what ever the final BO is for this movie, you can rest assured that there are people rolling in money already from this movie. And anytime people end up rolling in money, the like to add to the pile which aside from the other factors plaguing WB right now, should lead to a MoS sequel being announced relatively soon.

 

[spider-neil]

Just speculation here I but I think Superman Returns failed to get a sequel because of critical response (from fans) rather than box office. BB made 400m world wide (like SR) but got a sequel.

I think the idea of breaking even and making a profit are out of control.
Some people call ASM a failure after making 762m.

 

[sf2]

Damn! This page is a harsh dose of reality. So if MOS doesn't reach 750 mil it won't make a single dime for WB? and we can kiss our sequel goodbye?

F Green Lantern for F'in everything up.

??? what have it got to do with GL???

 

[Sup3rman81]

MOS is going to get a sequel. You cant expect huge numbers from a reboot. 650-700m for a reboot is pretty good. WB knows that they have something here and they arent going to just throw it away. It didnt bomb like GL or John Carter did. People keep saying there only successful franchise was Batman. HP and Hangover made them billions. Batman 89 and Returns was successful before Begins but Begins didnt do blockbuster numbers at the BO. Begins was a great CBM but it almost didnt even get a sequel. If WB is so confident in Batman then lets see who can replace Nolan and turn it into a Billion dollar movie. Marvel is way ahead of WB and thats why movies like Thor could pass a DC movie. Marvel is everywhere and they take chances with its characters. WB gets scared and only cares about money it seems. They dont put any emphasis on making a true DC universe and thats why Marvel can outsell a DC movie. If MOS had come out in 2006 and with Nolans Batman, we could have already had a huge DC universe and JLA movie. Marvel would not even be a question and DC/WB would be running the show. But they panicked on SR and didnt let Singer to a sequel and it took 7 years for DC/WB to get another Superman going. I think the GA and fans are just sick of WB. They have no faith in them anymore to get anything going. MOS needs a sequel, it deserves a sequel. I know SR was not a good movie but it still made almost 400m WW with no 3D and thats a lot better than most Marvel movies made except sequels. Maybe if they had let Singer bring in another bad guy we could have gotten some action and the Donner Superman all the critics want because they sure cant seem to grasp a more physical edgy Superman. I love Cavill and I feel it was his role to play. I think WB needs to get MOS2 going and show they are committed. If they run from Superman and back to Batman they will lose a lot of moviegoers.

 

[Liam_H]

It looks it pulled in about $4.2M today. Expected.

Credit: Rth

 

[rayc1971]

Just speculation here I but I think Superman Returns failed to get a sequel because of critical response (from fans) rather than box office. BB made 400m world wide (like SR) but got a sequel.

I think the idea of breaking even and making a profit are out of control.
Some people call ASM a failure after making 762m.

why do people compare batman begins with superman returns but fail to look at the budget?bb had a lower budget than returns so it was more profitable even if they both grossed the same ww.

 

[T"Challa]

The problem here are these ridiculous production budgets. Not too long ago, a 200 mill budget was considered extravagant..nowadays its almost the norm. Is there any reason at all for John Carter, Battleship, World War Z, RIPD etc to have 200 million budgets? Green Lantern,MOS, TASM, MIB 3 have 220+ mill..freaking Lone Ranger is said to have 250+ mill. This is not even counting the usual 80+mill in marketing. How do you expect to earn significant profits when you need over 600 mill alone to break even? especially in this awful economy.

Iron Man and Batman Begins, 2 of the best films of the genre were made for under 150 mill. No reason why most of these films can't scale down to that level..all these bombastic cgi-fests that require millions upon millions are unnecessary

 

[Bruce Malone]

Just speculation here I but I think Superman Returns failed to get a sequel because of critical response (from fans) rather than box office. BB made 400m world wide (like SR) but got a sequel.

I think the idea of breaking even and making a profit are out of control.
Some people call ASM a failure after making 762m.

Box office played a major role indeed but it goes to your earlier point also about how there wasn't that much hope the sequel would do better as opposed to maybe TASM.

I think WB would have been willing to cut a loss had they seen potential for the sequel but that evaporated soon.

Begins didn't make that much profit wise for WB but its word of mouth kept growing throughout the films run until well after.

 

[sf2]

It looks it pulled in about $4.2M today. Expected.

Credit: Rth

good or bad? or just normal?
how about WWZ n MU?

 

[dark_b]

Domestic: $219,812,000 x 60% = 131,887

+ Foreign: $188,300,000 x 30% = + 56,490

= Worldwide: $408,112,745 = $188,377

That is roughly what this movie has made for WB at this time not including points for Nolan and Peters.




No. The 170 mil they made with the cross promotions aren't added to the box office they take away from the $150+ mil marketing budget and distribution costs (abo $30 - 50 mil)

those numbers are scaring me. not because the sequel is danger. the sequel will be made. its scaring me because i dont know what kind of movie WB will make based on those numbers.

i do belive that Clark & Lois on an adventure in Metropolis with comedy and big action from superman can make a lot of money.

 

[Liam_H]

good or bad? or just normal?
how about WWZ n MU?

That's a 20% drop. So for Wednesday its expected, wouldn't call it good or bad. WWZ at $6.6M(-24%) and MU at $9.9M(-17%). Expected for WWZ too but you can call MU good.

Credit: Rth

 

[Sup3rman81]

good or bad? or just normal?
how about WWZ n MU?

I would say pretty good. 4.5 monday, 5.2 tuesday, 4.2 wednesday. thats 13.9 with another 3.8-4m Thursday. I say with a 25-27m weekend it could have 45m for the week. that would put MOS at 254m. Maybe closer to 250m

 

[Sup3rman81]

those numbers are scaring me. not because the sequel is danger. the sequel will be made. its scaring me because i dont know what kind of movie WB will make based on those numbers.

i do belive that Clark & Lois on an adventure in Metropolis with comedy and big action from superman can make a lot of money.

I would not be worried about those numbers. Studios do not make a huge profit on alot of the movies they make but they get money back from tie ins and merchandise. MOS is only 12 days old and has not even opened in some markets. by the time its all said and done it will have made its money back and then some

 

[spider-neil]

Box office played a major role indeed but it goes to your earlier point also about how there wasn't that much hope the sequel would do better as opposed to maybe TASM.

I think WB would have been willing to cut a loss had they seen potential for the sequel but that evaporated soon.

Begins didn't make that much profit wise for WB but its word of mouth kept growing throughout the films run until well after.

I read reports and it makes it sound like even blockbusters make $10 and packet of crisps. Makes you wonder why movie studios even bother making movies if there are no profits to be had. Exaggeration at it's worst.

 

[spider-neil]

I would not be worried about those numbers. Studios do not make a huge profit on alot of the movies they make but they get money back from tie ins and merchandise. MOS is only 12 days old and has not even opened in some markets. by the time its all said and done it will have made its money back and then some

Merchandise
Blu/DVD
TV/syndication

There is a lot of money to be made

 

[Sup3rman81]

Merchandise
Blu/DVD
TV/syndication

There is a lot of money to be made

oh for sure, FX already picked up the rights to MOS so you know they paid good $$$ for it. Also I bet Blu Ray sales will be huge for this movie. I wish they would have made a console game. WB doesnt really make tie in games. They did for Potter and Batman Begins but no TDK or TDKR. I wish Netherealm would make a Superman game like the Arkham ones

 

[sf2]

That's a 20% drop. So for Wednesday its expected, wouldn't call it good or bad. WWZ at $6.6M(-24%) and MU at $9.9M(-17%). Expected for WWZ too but you can call MU good.

Credit: Rth

they are dropped fairly normal then. i thought MOS could have stronger legs to overtake WWZ at least.

 

[MANOFSTEELtrilogy]

Looks like Cavill will end up playing Superman in 6 films, with a MOS trilogy and a Justice League trilogy. But I hope they make more than 3 MOS films. There is no point in stopping at 3 if the actor is young enough to continue on, and if it continues to break June records. And if the rumors are true about Warner Bros fast-tracking the MOS sequel for a 2014 release, they can definitely end up doing more than a trilogy.

 

[spider-neil]

oh for sure, FX already picked up the rights to MOS so you know they paid good $$$ for it. Also I bet Blu Ray sales will be huge for this movie. I wish they would have made a console game. WB doesnt really make tie in games. They did for Potter and Batman Begins but no TDK or TDKR. I wish Netherealm would make a Superman game like the Arkham ones

The only concern for WB is whether the movie is the best direction to move forwards because SR most certainly was not. Whether you like MoS or not that have set up a very compelling sandbox let's see where they go with no set up to fullfil.

 

[Liam_H]

they are dropped fairly normal then. i thought MOS could have stronger legs to overtake WWZ at least.

No, WWZ is not gonna drop that much for MoS to beat it. At least not anytime soon.

 

[sf2]

No, WWZ is not gonna drop that much for MoS to beat it. At least not anytime soon.

i think MOS having stronger legs OS. it retains no. 1 the weekends.

 

[Sup3rman81]

The only concern for WB is whether the movie is the best direction to move forwards because SR most certainly was not. Whether you like MoS or not that have set up a very compelling sandbox let's see where they go with no set up to fullfil.

WB is going to move forward with MOS. Nothing from WB suggests they wouldnt or that they arent happy with MOS. are you saying they didnt set up for a sequel? The whole movie to me was a set up for a sequel with all the easter eggs and the ending.

 

[Sup3rman81]

i think MOS having stronger legs OS. it retains no. 1 the weekends.

I think MOS and WWZ compete for 4th and 5th this weekend. I see MU #1, The Heat #2, WHD #3, WWZ or MOS #4 and #5

I really see a lakcluster weekend though for all movies

MU- 48-52m, Heat 45m, WHD 32m, MOS 25m, WWZ 22.5m

 

[MANOFSTEELtrilogy]

Is the rumor true about Warner Bros fast-tracking MOS2 for 2014 release? And I also read that Snyder wants Mark Strong to play Lex.