Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 8

[Rock Sexton]

I predicted an over 200 million dollar opening weekend! <---Mud on face...

It's ok .... I told my father a couple weeks before it's release that is was the next billion dollar CBM.

Then I actually saw it ....

 

[Snark88]

It's ok .... I told my father a couple weeks before it's release that is was the next billion dollar CBM.

Then I actually saw it ....

Even if Man of Steel was a masterpiece, it wasn't gonna see a 200 million dollar opening. As of right now, Warner Bros can only dream of achieving that amount. If they want it, they're gonna have to work for it first, like Marvel did with the lead up to the Avengers.

 

[Rock Sexton]

I think you missed the discussion (maybe it was in the previous thread of this topic) where we already discussed how much was spent on advertising, and other non-production expenses. Someone said it was around $170 million I believe.

We also already discussed how much money the film has made when you include product placements, merchandise, and other non-production related revenue. I believe it's around $150 million.

So basically the non-production expenses and revenues cancel out give or take ~20 million. Thus, just using the basic formula of Box Office - Production Budget is completely valid way to measure the success of the film.

Now the revenue-sharing deals that WB has with other studios (like Legendary, Synecopy) is another topic, but considering that WB just severed ties with Legendary I think it's pretty obvious that a sequel for MoS is going to happen at this point regardless of the final BO numbers; which basically everyone on SHH is in agreement will be at minimum $600 million WW. Some say $650, others say $700, others say $750, I say $800+

Where is a link for the $150 million they made in product placement, etc ?

exactly... Marvel said Avengers needed to hit 1Bil to break even

That was based on a report during the whole "The actors want more money" thing .... it has not been confirmed.

 

[Tra-El]

They might have to. The problem is I can't see certain heroes fitting in this ultra realistic universe that's been created with Man of Steel. I can see Batman and Green Lantern fitting in, but Wonder Woman? Because if Wonder Woman exists, then so do the Greek Gods. That's gonna be really difficult fitting in this universe, because you got realism, sci fi, and now you're gonna add magic and mythology as well?

I dunno, I just don't see it working.

Thats why these guys get paid the big bucks. The creative minds can defianatly come up with a way, they just need certain pieces to the puzzle that fit and right now, they dont have that. All they have right now, is MOS so hopefully, things can be put together and be a more natural fit in the sequel to allow each piece to make sense and fit together tightly.

 

[Sup3rman81]

This is the only site I see that moderator would say such a thing to forum memebers... I though they were to police the forum to make sure it is civil not to call out someone with an opinion... It wasn't like you were out of line and attacking the other members ... Oh well, I guess it's just the way SHH operates here...

Exactly! Thank you

 

[Sup3rman81]

Boxofficemojo.com has Man of Steel at #5 this weekend with 20.3m as an estimate. Lets hope it does that or slightly more

 

[Marvin]

It sure is....In Australia, Man of Steel has an average user review of 4.5 stars out of 5!
http://yourmovies.com.au/movie/42663/man-of-steel

this might be ignored(by naysayers)
fair warning

 

[Marvin]

Lex Luthor and Metallo would be perfect for a MOS sequel with a smaller budget.

Why would they give the sequel a smaller budget?

 

[kedrell]

Boxofficemojo.com has Man of Steel at #5 this weekend with 20.3m as an estimate. Lets hope it does that or slightly more

Well that would put it between $245-250M by weekends end.

 

[Marvin]

Boxofficemojo.com has Man of Steel at #5 this weekend with 20.3m as an estimate. Lets hope it does that or slightly more

20 plus would be pretty good.
Sadly the fact that it's number 5 in it's third week might be another sign that it's got bad WOM

 

[Juicy J]

I've heard incredibly mixed things about the movie from everyone I've talked to, leaning more towards the negative. I'd say this movie won't have good legs as the GA isn't eating it up.

 

[Sup3rman81]

20 plus would be pretty good.
Sadly the fact that it's number 5 in it's third week might be another sign that it's got bad WOM

WOM is fine. It's the constant two new movies coming out every week. MU and WWz last week and now Heat and WHD. BOmojo has it MU, Heat, WHD, WWZ, and MOS for the top 5

 

[Sup3rman81]

I've heard incredibly mixed things about the movie from everyone I've talked to, leaning more towards the negative. I'd say this movie won't have good legs as the GA isn't eating it up.

The user ratings on most sites say otherwise. I cant base a movie having a negative or positive feedback from a few people but most sites have thousands of users saying they like or love the movie. OS it is doing great and the fans are loving it

 

[sf2]

WOM is fine. It's the constant two new movies coming out every week. MU and WWz last week and now Heat and WHD. BOmojo has it MU, Heat, WHD, WWZ, and MOS for the top 5

why MU can be no. 1 for 2 weeks?

 

[Sup3rman81]

why MU can be no. 1 for 2 weeks?

Thats just how they see it. The Heat might be #1 but I doubt it because of its R rating. MU just doesn't have any true contenders

 

[MrMaooz]

Why would they give the sequel a smaller budget?

It wouldn't shock me.

 

[FlawlessVictory]

The user ratings on most sites say otherwise. I cant base a movie having a negative or positive feedback from a few people but most sites have thousands of users saying they like or love the movie. OS it is doing great and the fans are loving it

I agree. I cannot go by any personal anecdotes given on the internet, both positive and negative. It's usually people who like the movie have friends that all love the movie and can't stop talking about it. Then there are those that don't like the movie that happen to have all the people they know not like it either and therefore the movie is not doing that well. Funny how that always works.

All I go by for audience reaction is IMDB, RT and Metacritic and they are all either in the high 7's or 80 percentile. Sounds pretty damn solid to me.

 

[Sup3rman81]

I agree. I cannot go by any personal anecdotes given on the internet, both positive and negative. It's usually people who like the movie have friends that all love the movie and can't stop talking about it. Then there are those that don't like the movie that happen to have all the people they know not like it either and therefore the movie is not doing that well. Funny how that always works.

All I go by for audience reaction is IMDB, RT and Metacritic and they are all either in the high 7's or 80 percentile. Sounds pretty damn solid to me.

Yea MOS is for sure a hit with the fans and GA. Critics didn't all approve but that's okay

 

[rayc1971]

Why would they give the sequel a smaller budget?

it would be a good move to have a smaller budget because its not making the kind of coin they hoped.they are not going to have to show krypton in the sequel so that will save some money.it will be cheaper to have luthor and metallo then brainic or darksied save them for the 3rd.maybe they can lower the budget from 225mill to 190mill or so for the sequel

 

[MANOFSTEELtrilogy]

Snyder has dramatically changed the image of Superman overnight. It truly is the most incredibly entertaining film of all-time. As one review on RT said, 'It makes The Avengers look like Snow White'. Imagine if The Avengers was directed by Snyder! The box office would be $3billion if Snyder was at the helm. So lucky to have him with JLA, and of course the hotly-anticipated MOS2. With the image of Superman Returns, MOS was able to open with $129mil, imagine what MOS2 will open with!

 

[MANOFSTEELtrilogy]

it would be a good move to have a smaller budget because its not making the kind of coin they hoped.they are not going to have to show krypton in the sequel so that will save some money.it will be cheaper to have luthor and metallo then brainic or darksied save them for the 3rd.maybe they can lower the budget from 225mill to 190mill or so for the sequel

WB were hoping for $80mil Opening Weekend, weren't they? They got $129mil

 

[Bruce Malone]

I can't see them lowering the sequels budget hollywood like to go big or go home.

Look at the evolution of TDK series budgets:

BB: $150M
TDK:$185
TDKR:$250m

I don't think the budget will rise necessarily but probably stay the same.

 

[MANOFSTEELtrilogy]

I can't see them lowering the sequels budget hollywood like to go big or go home.

Look at the evolution of TDK series budgets:

BB: $150M
TDK:$185
TDKR:$250m

I don't think the budget will rise necessarily but probably stay the same.

That's true, BB only made $207mil domestically ($374mil overall).
MOS has already made $224mil domestically ($412mil overall).

If TDK got a budget increase, MOS2 obviously will. And if it follows the path of other superhero trilogies, there will be more action in MOS2 than in MOS! Although they might need to have an alien villain partnering Lex in order to increase the action.

 

[sf2]

Snyder has dramatically changed the image of Superman overnight. It truly is the most incredibly entertaining film of all-time. As one review on RT said, 'It makes The Avengers look like Snow White'. Imagine if The Avengers was directed by Snyder! The box office would be $3billion if Snyder was at the helm. So lucky to have him with JLA, and of course the hotly-anticipated MOS2. With the image of Superman Returns, MOS was able to open with $129mil, imagine what MOS2 will open with!

i just wish more and more people can see that. not only the action, the compelling and solid story and plot.

 

[Marvin]

I can't see them lowering the sequels budget hollywood like to go big or go home.

Look at the evolution of TDK series budgets:

BB: $150M
TDK:$185
TDKR:$250m

I don't think the budget will rise necessarily but probably stay the same.

Yea most sequels get a budget bump(see also transformers and ironman), seeing as how the sequels tend to almost always come with the promise of making more money(not sure about Ironman though).

The thing is sequels tend to get a bump towards what MOS had. I don't see it getting much higher than that but I don't get why it would go lower. Instead of coming off of Superman Returns, you'll have crowd looking at a film that's coming off of MOS. Naysayers might think that's a bad thing, I'd argue differently.