Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread

[snyderrocks]

That's why I will never go too high on the film, I think that the release date is bad for a movie with such a huge budget. I know people think that good word of mouth will overcome the release date but I doubt it. We will see who's predictions are the closest some time in July.

Name the last early or mid June release that made 300mil domestically? I think you'd have to go back pretty freakin far. Maybe JP in 1993? So 20 years ago?

Good luck breaking the June curse because the only huge hits I can recall are JP and a couple of Pixar flicks. Personally I think my prediction is pretty generous considering the recent history of movies like MOS with the same release date.

there is no such thing as a june curse harry potter , batman begins , transformers 2 , toy story 3 , super 8 , x men first class , snow white and the huntsman ,
twilight eclipse ,the hangover , ted , kung fu panda , ect are examples of hit films in the 21 century not june 20 years ago .

 

[snyderrocks]

I agree with this. Thor made 449M WW, and while he's not as recognized as Superman, I really don't think it's going to be 300M more than that movie was. Plus if you adjust Batman Begins for inflation, it's around 450-500M.

500M-600M is a good start and will start the franchise.

Part of the problem, and I know I've beat this like a dead horse, but having a mid June release date was horrible for this film, and hopefully it will have good legs, because there's strong competition on either side of it's release.

thor would have done better had it not been for that odd boycott .

 

[snyderrocks]

BB as in Batman Begins? lawl. What did they spend it on? BB had terrible marketing.

one of my favorite films ever clerks 2 that was made on 5 million dollars by
new jersey legend kevin smith had much better marketing then the big studio film batman begin's ever did .

 

[Kryptonian Warrior]

there is no such thing as a june curse harry potter , batman begins , transformers 2 , toy story 3 , super 8 , x men first class , snow white and the huntsman ,
twilight eclipse ,the hangover , ted , kung fu panda , ect are examples of hit films in the 21 century not june 20 years ago .

Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone opened in November. So that doesn't count.
Batman Begins opened June 15th and had a total domestic return of $206,852,432.
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen opened June 24th and had a total domestic return of $402,111,870. With it being June 24th, you are getting close to that July 4th crowd, but I'll give you that one.
Toy Story 3 was a monster hit that opened June 18th and had a total domestic return of $415,004,880.
Super 8 opened on June 10th and only had a total domestic return of $127,004,179.
X-Men: First Class opened on June 3rd and only had a total domestic return of $146,408,305.
Snow White and the Huntsman opened on June 1st and had a total domestic gross of $155,332,381.
The Twilight Saga: Eclipse opened on June 30th and had a total domestic return of $300,531,751.

 

[snyderrocks]

Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone opened in November. So that doesn't count.
Batman Begins opened June 15th and had a total domestic return of $206,852,432.
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen opened June 24th and had a total domestic return of $402,111,870. With it being June 24th, you are getting close to that July 4th crowd, but I'll give you that one.
Toy Story 3 was a monster hit that opened June 18th and had a total domestic return of $415,004,880.
Super 8 opened on June 10th and only had a total domestic return of $127,004,179.
X-Men: First Class opened on June 3rd and only had a total domestic return of $146,408,305.
Snow White and the Huntsman opened on June 1st and had a total domestic gross of $155,332,381.
The Twilight Saga: Eclipse opened on June 30th and had a total domestic return of $300,531,751.

all those films made a profit and what i meant to say was that third harry potter film was a dud but made money back in june 2004 , domestic box office today does not mean what it used to so this is a pointless topic .

 

[Marvin]

Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone opened in November. So that doesn't count.
Batman Begins opened June 15th and had a total domestic return of $206,852,432.
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen opened June 24th and had a total domestic return of $402,111,870. With it being June 24th, you are getting close to that July 4th crowd, but I'll give you that one.
Toy Story 3 was a monster hit that opened June 18th and had a total domestic return of $415,004,880.
Super 8 opened on June 10th and only had a total domestic return of $127,004,179.
X-Men: First Class opened on June 3rd and only had a total domestic return of $146,408,305.
Snow White and the Huntsman opened on June 1st and had a total domestic gross of $155,332,381.
The Twilight Saga: Eclipse opened on June 30th and had a total domestic return of $300,531,751.

Of those films, which were actually set to make money from the start and which weren't.

For example, Xmen first class. Everyone and their mother knew of how much it had riding against it. Not to mention how much Xmen films actually make on average(a well kept secret).
Was Super 8 supposed to be some kind of mega hit? I could go on about most films that are selected for june dates. In a similar way I can go on about many films that are selected for August or September or January dates. Only those months actually have tangible reasons for a slowed box office(such as vacationing months and school schedules).

The point being, you can't just look at the numbers and draw your conclusions from there alone. Sometimes one has to take an honest look at the films themselves. Someone above said that "well that's Ironman, and that's Transformers..." Yea, films destined to make money. Sorry but I for one will not attribute Superman Returns garbage performance to it's mid summer release date. Same goes for Green Lantern and the same will go for Wolrd War Z and the M. Night movie. They just happened to be stinkers.

Batman Begins had alot going against it. One thing being, it really wasn't all that cinematic though many of it's fans seem to think so(from the villain to the action to the characterization). Then along came TDK and presto....then again, TDK wasn't released in June so what do I know.

 

[Gianakin_]

I almost fear to ask what "BB wasn't all that cinematic" means.

 

[Kryptonian Warrior]

Of those films, which were actually set to make money from the start and which weren't.

For example, Xmen first class. Everyone and their mother knew of how much it had riding against it. Not to mention how much Xmen films actually make on average(a well kept secret).
Was Super 8 supposed to be some kind of mega hit? I could go on about most films that are selected for june dates. In a similar way I can go on about many films that are selected for August or September or January dates. Only those months actually have tangible reasons for a slowed box office(such as vacationing months and school schedules).

The point being, you can't just look at the numbers and draw your conclusions from there alone. Sometimes one has to take an honest look at the films themselves. Someone above said that "well that's Ironman, and that's Transformers..." Yea, films destined to make money. Sorry but I for one will not attribute Superman Returns garbage performance to it's mid summer release date. Same goes for Green Lantern and the same will go for Wolrd War Z and the M. Night movie. They just happened to be stinkers.

Batman Begins had alot going against it. One thing being, it really wasn't all that cinematic though many of it's fans seem to think so(from the villain to the action to the characterization). Then along came TDK and presto....then again, TDK wasn't released in June so what do I know.

Oh I completely agree with everything you are saying. I was just trying to help out by looking up some numbers and their dates. I knew that someone was going to do it.

So with all that said, I wonder what WB "magic number" for a sequel greenlight is this time around?

 

[Mysteryman]

thor would have done better had it not been for that odd boycott .

What boycott?

 

[Marvin]

I almost fear to ask what "BB wasn't all that cinematic" means.

In terms of what the modern audience interprets as cinematic...

This isn't the thread, but in brief and for starters:
Ninjas in the alps
GI Joe Retaliation vs Batman Begins.

Batman vs Swat team
Year One(animated) vs Batman Begins.

The Bruce Wayne home invasion scene...just seems in the books things actually get appropriately "epic"

It had it's fun little third act but even that was lacking in ways. I don't think it fired the right cylinders, I don't think most of "phase one" marvel did either. I don't anticipate the same thing happening here.

 

[Marvin]

Oh I completely agree with everything you are saying. I was just trying to help out by looking up some numbers and their dates. I knew that someone was going to do it.

So with all that said, I wonder what WB "magic number" for a sequel greenlight is this time around?

They will be announcing such things after the opening week numbers if anything. If they stay to their 3 day opening plan(which they probably won't), then I'm thinking if it opens over 100mill it's a sure thing.

That being said, this next trailer better knock it off with the holding back.

 

[Tony Stark]

there is no such thing as a june curse harry potter , batman begins , transformers 2 , toy story 3 , super 8 , x men first class , snow white and the huntsman ,
twilight eclipse ,the hangover , ted , kung fu panda , ect are examples of hit films in the 21 century not june 20 years ago .

If you look at the all time best releases for June, the top 3 are sequels. The next 3 on the list are Pixar films. The next spot on the list is Hulk, which is by all means considered a huge flop.

Snow White and the Huntsman, didn't make back it's production budget. It was a modest hit, but world wide under 400M.

The point is people saying this film is going to make 800M world wide, are being way too optimistic. If that happened, then it's a bonified hit, espeically for a June release. I'm being pretty generous saying 500-600M, in all likelyhood the film will be under 500M based on release date.

You have to look at comparable films. Transformers DOTM was a Wednesday release prior to the preceeding 4th of July week. It made a ton of money but it was extremely front loaded, and it was a sequel.

 

[mclay18]

I think MOS would have to be phenomenally well-received (as in small drops every weekend) in order to reach $1 bilion.

And if After Earth ever got pushed back or something, I wouldn't be surprised if WB bumped it up a week.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

I don't thing it fired the right cylinders, I don't think most of "phase one" marvel did either.

True. Thor and the first two Iron Mans had mediocre action. Cap had some fun slugouts but nothing to get really excited over. It wasn't until the Avengers that Marvel Studios delivered an action scene up to the standards of Singer, Vaughn and Raimi.

 

[BH/HHH]

I think MOS would have to be phenomenally well-received (as in small drops every weekend) in order to reach $1 bilion.

And if After Earth ever got pushed back or something, I wouldn't be surprised if WB bumped it up a week.

I'd love it if that happened

 

[kedrell]

It's interesting how this summer is gonna be a replay of 2006 in that it'll be Superman VS. Johnny Depp, again.

 

[Marvin]

It's interesting how this summer is gonna be a replay of 2006 in that it'll be Superman VS. Johnny Depp, again.

No kryptonite in sight this time.t:

 

[Mysteryman]

In terms of what the modern audience interprets as cinematic...

This isn't the thread, but in brief and for starters:
Ninjas in the alps
GI Joe Retaliation vs Batman Begins.

Batman vs Swat team
Year One(animated) vs Batman Begins.

The Bruce Wayne home invasion scene...just seems in the books things actually get appropriately "epic"

It had it's fun little third act but even that was lacking in ways. I don't think it fired the right cylinders, I don't think most of "phase one" marvel did either. I don't anticipate the same thing happening here.

How can you compare Batman Begins to GI Joe Retaliation when the latter film isnt out yet?

 

[Marvin]

How can you compare Batman Begins to GI Joe Retaliation when the latter film isnt out yet?

What I've seen has been more impressive to my point, than what I saw in Begins.

Snake eyes is battling an organization of ninjas and doing so in pretty spectacular fashion. Bat's just stumbled his way though some jump cuts and explosions and we were supposed to respect his skills...all tell and no show leaves the audience kinda disappointed.

 

[Mysteryman]

Batman & Robin sucked.
That is why most people didnt go to BB.

 

[Marvin]

As bad as Batman and Robin may have been, if they had played the trailer for The Dark Knight in 2005, the box office would have been heaps better than begins.

 

[Mysteryman]

After Batman& Robin, there was an 8 year break.
After BB there was a three year break to create a sequel,Big difference.

 

[snyderrocks]

If you look at the all time best releases for June, the top 3 are sequels. The next 3 on the list are Pixar films. The next spot on the list is Hulk, which is by all means considered a huge flop.

Snow White and the Huntsman, didn't make back it's production budget. It was a modest hit, but world wide under 400M.

The point is people saying this film is going to make 800M world wide, are being way too optimistic. If that happened, then it's a bonified hit, espeically for a June release. I'm being pretty generous saying 500-600M, in all likelyhood the film will be under 500M based on release date.

You have to look at comparable films. Transformers DOTM was a Wednesday release prior to the preceeding 4th of July week. It made a ton of money but it was extremely front loaded, and it was a sequel.

snow white and the huntsman over performed last june man it would have done even better at the box office but a week after the huntsman opened the more hyped up Prometheus came out undercut the huntsman at the uk box office and went on to do over 400 million .

 

[snyderrocks]

Of those films, which were actually set to make money from the start and which weren't.

For example, Xmen first class. Everyone and their mother knew of how much it had riding against it. Not to mention how much Xmen films actually make on average(a well kept secret).
Was Super 8 supposed to be some kind of mega hit? I could go on about most films that are selected for june dates. In a similar way I can go on about many films that are selected for August or September or January dates. Only those months actually have tangible reasons for a slowed box office(such as vacationing months and school schedules).

The point being, you can't just look at the numbers and draw your conclusions from there alone. Sometimes one has to take an honest look at the films themselves. Someone above said that "well that's Ironman, and that's Transformers..." Yea, films destined to make money. Sorry but I for one will not attribute Superman Returns garbage performance to it's mid summer release date. Same goes for Green Lantern and the same will go for Wolrd War Z and the M. Night movie. They just happened to be stinkers.

Batman Begins had alot going against it. One thing being, it really wasn't all that cinematic though many of it's fans seem to think so(from the villain to the action to the characterization). Then along came TDK and presto....then again, TDK wasn't released in June so what do I know.

i don't know about you but the will smith film after earth looks wonderful man and world war z has brad pitt this could be another war of the worlds .

 

[snyderrocks]

Batman & Robin sucked.
That is why most people didnt go to BB.

wb made a bunch of lousy decisions back in the 90's like not ending the batman films with forever and doing a campy batman and robin film that killed the series for 8 year's and by wb allowing tim burton to trash kevin smith's wonderful superman script and start over they indirectly stalled the superman film franchise too , had wb sided with smith his superman lives film would have been a monster hit nic cage was fresh off con air who know's maybe wb might have offered kevin smith a comic book fan the chance to be in control of the dc film series since they have struggled with any non batman dc product on the big screen .