Rogue One Rogue One Box Office Prediction Thread

[Blitzkrieg]

https://***********/ERCboxoffice/status/815609005707902976

Exhibitors Relations
@ERCboxoffice

ROGUE ONE can't be stopped. #1 for the 3rd week in a row, the Star Wars prequel grossed nearly $50M this weekend, $440M through Monday.

 

[JB33]

My estimate for the 3-day weekend is $49.4M.

 

[writer0327]

Not really a puzzle at all.
China is just now getting to know Star Wars.

That's what makes them a puzzle. We don't quite know what to expect just yet.

 

[Sithborg]

Looks like $49.5 for the three day weekend. Really makes up for last weekend.

Also, seems to be at $790 worldwide. A billion is locked.

 

[JB33]

Looks like $49.5 for the three day weekend. Really makes up for last weekend.

Also, seems to be at $790 worldwide. A billion is locked.

Yep, looks like I was off by about $100K. It behaved this weekend much like Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows did this time 5 years ago (when the calender was the exact same).

Looks like just under $15M for Monday as well, bringing the domestic total to over $439M. It'll drop harshly tomorrow, though. Look for a Tuesday gross of $6M- $7M and anywhere between $15M and $18m total for the Tuesday-Thursday frame.

 

[Sithborg]

I don't think it will be that harsh of a drop for Tue. The holiday Mon drop will be offset by the discount Tues, with schools still being out. I'm thinking 9-10 mil for Tue.

 

[Xrated48]

This film is doing way better domestically than I originally thought.

 

[JB33]

I don't think it will be that harsh of a drop for Tue. The holiday Mon drop will be offset by the discount Tues, with schools still being out. I'm thinking 9-10 mil for Tue.

I hope that's the case. Again, I'm going by holiday movie trends back in 2011/early 2012 but, that being said, Star Wars movies make their own rules.

I could definitely see a softer drop. Sherlock Holmes 2 is no Rogue One. Guess we'll see!

 

[JB33]

The estimate for Monday went up to $16M. The next best 3rd Monday/18th day is $12,777,105 for Toy Story 3.

As I said, the big drop will happen today though. Then it will continue being fairly steady.

 

[Iceman]

Already no.13 on the all time domestic list!

 

[Erzengel]

Disney did $3B domestically with just 16 movies, 13 movies released in 2016.

WB did $1.9B with 37 movies, 25 movies released last year.

Fox did $1.469B with 23 movies, 17 movies released last year.

Amazing.

 

[JOE]

I pray for the day WB sells DC comics...

 

[Erzengel]

$2B out of the $3B came just from 5 movies.

 

[DA_Champion]

What were the box office expectations for Rogue One? What kind of gross would be considered a sign the movie had good worth of mouth and rewatch interest?

 

[Erzengel]

This should finish at least $525M domestically, which would be #7 all time. If it reaches over $535, it'd be #6. I think that's good WOM.

 

[Xrated48]

Right now it's 39 million ahead of the dark knight domestically after 18 days.

 

[Mandon Knight]

Given how it's well it's doing $1.2-1.5 billion ain't out of the reckoning...

 

[Iceman]

Disney have overturned the domestic box office since getting their hands on Marvel and Star Wars. 2 great deals for them (and for us lol).

 

[DKDetective]

What were the box office expectations for Rogue One? What kind of gross would be considered a sign the movie had good worth of mouth and rewatch interest?

The expectations were about a billion if it was good. No one anticipated TFA-type numbers. This movie was an experiment as the first Staw Wars spinoff.

In my opinion, the movie's grosses already show it has good word of mouth and rewatch interest. It's already surpassed Civil War domestically. If it does similarly to TFA in China, a billion is assured. If it doesn't reach a billion, which is possible given how quickly foreign market burn out, it'll still be considered a success since it was a first Star Wars spinoff and given how strong the domestic box office has been, since the studio gets a much higher share of domestic profits. The movie has made back its budget domestically at this point, so the foreign grosses are pure profit for Disney.

 

[InCali]

What were the box office expectations for Rogue One? What kind of gross would be considered a sign the movie had good worth of mouth and rewatch interest?

I would have said going in that 450M DOM would have been a very good, solid showing. Obviously it's going to do much, much better than that. I think it will waltz past 1B.

 

[Sith]

It will be Capt America getting a "to the left" in a few days as Rogue One jogs on by

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

It will be Capt America getting a "to the left" in a few days as Rogue One jogs on by

Cap will likely keep the worldwide crown for 2016 tho.

 

[Sithborg]

Cap will likely keep the worldwide crown for 2016 tho.

Way too early to make that call.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

https://***********/GiteshPandya/status/816693296944869376

Gitesh Pandya
@GiteshPandya

$15.4M global TUE for #RogueOne which will reach about $830M today. Will surge to $925M area after this wknd w/ FRI debut in China.

 

[Erzengel]

So it'd be $225M under Civil War prior to the China release.

So China $100-125M and then another $100 global?