Let's be clear about a few things. First off this isn't quite over yet. This dispute has been brewing for a quite a while, well priori to FFH hitting theaters and the only reason why it's public now is because one of the parties involved (I'm assuming Sony based on how the story is being framed) is trying to make the other cave or lower its ambitions. It absolutely doesn't mean that talks aren't still ongoing and that things won't resolve themselves a few months down the line.
That being said, this is a tough situation. The fact is that there are a few hardliners at Columbia Pictures who opposed the original deal and are still thinking that they would be better off cutting ties with Disney. On the other side there are people at Disney objecting to the fact that Marvel is putting the bulk of the work on these films without seeing much profit going back to the studio (although they make money from other venues, these go to different divisions). Basically they feel that they are devoting too many ressources and manpower for what they deem in the end to be a limited ROI.
So where do we go from there ? The thing is the status of the Holland led sub-franchise might be in limbo at the moment with some people speculating that there are kinks in the original deal preventing Sony from going solo with this version of the character. It's obviously not clear cut but I think it's something that we should keep in mind moving forward. In any case cutting ties with the MCU is a death sentence for the franchise wether they reboot or not. A slow one maybe but a death sentence nonetheless.
Marvel Studios has been pretty consistent at showing how success breeds success. There's simply no way that Far From Home would have reached its current numbers if it wasn't for the character's appearances in Infinity War and Endgame. Sony doesn't have that. They do not have vehicles to propel their own movies to such heights. They tried and failed, quite miserably I might add, at that in the past. Separating Spider-Man from the larger MCU is again going down the road of the type of diminishing returns that led them to make a deal in the first place. Which is probably why they are testing waters by going public with the dispute.
And that is not even accounting for how petty Disney can be. They have the resources and content to basically bury any forthcoming Spider-Man movie and the ability to suffocate the property through the rights they still hold (which oddly enough still includes video games so I guess we might kiss a sequel to the Insomniac game goodbye if the deal isn't renewed). They can be pesky enough to open a Pixar juggernaut, one of their blockbuster live-action remakes or even another Marvel property day and date against a Spider-Man film, shake off the dent, and injure the competition in the process.
Now this isn't saying that "losing" Spider-Man isn't going to be an issue for Marvel and I cannot even begin to imagine how they will manage to phase out the character in a way that makes sense (although apparently they have a contingency plan for that that dates back to when the first deal was cut) but the MCU will go on and thrive in spite of (or somehow because of) the inevitable bumps on the road. The same cannot be said for whatever Sony has in store for the character in the future
