Suicide Squad box office prediction - Part 2

[Greenlite]

Just a reminder of some of the hyperbolic self-righteous statements we have to endure in the thread for the last 3 weeks.

http://forums.superherohype.com/showpost.php?p=34120149&postcount=572

"I have no idea how you're getting 650-700m especially without China considering your "higher, if China ends up approving it" statement. i'm leaning more towards 500-550 mil. "

http://forums.superherohype.com/showpost.php?p=34121295&postcount=619

"Firstly. I think its way too early to say its gonna make it to 300m domestically for certain.

Secondly How is it getting another 100 mil domestically? I don't see that at all.

I think you're being waaaaaaaay too optimistic with this film. This result that you want to happen is in no way realistic.

Also. I'd consider Kubo and the two strings competition. Its a well marketed animated film that has an interesting visual style."

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://pro.boxoffice.com/studio-wee...-strings-opens-12-6m-ben-hur-crashes-w-11-3m/

Suicide Squad made an estimated $38.0 million overseas, down 35.3 percent, in 64 markets. The film has earned a terrific $310.4 million overseas and $572.6 million globally.

Well done everyone, common sense and science (and math) prevailed at the end t:

 

[Marvin]

still think the whole china thing is a shame. Especially with the art direction and intl stars.
TWS made 115mill in china alone.

WB needs to start establishing a presence there.

 

[JKKS085]

I think there is something that tends to get lost in these box office discussions.

The only thing that matters when it comes to the box office is how much money you make. You won't win any awards for "great legs" at the box office. All that matters is how these qualities translate to the bottom line. "Legs" and such are only useful for predicting the final result.

Hypothetically, if Spider-Man: Homecoming were to gross two billion dollars in the first weekend and then fail to sell another ticket, would that make it a failure? It would still have made two billion dollars.

Great marketing translates into huge opening weekends which then invariably translate into big drops and "weak legs." It's unfair to criticize movies for this in the manner I am seeing nowadays.

Legs determine audience drawing power. They determine long runs and higher grosses that might exceed studios expectations. A movie that has a longer longevity is also an indicator of repeated business. In a franchise it gives you indications wether or not your movie was able to reach past its targeted demo, how it's been received by the general audience and determines prospects for future installments.

It's not the be all and end all of a box office run but it is far from negligible. Especially in the context of a franchise with multiple movies on the way.

BvS legs and how they show that the movie has not been as widely embraced as WB thought it would be is one of the reasons why then engaged in a significant course correction a few months ago, not just how much money it made in the end.

 

[MydnightPhoenix]

What kind of movies will China accept? I have no knowledge on the films they let be shown but I would think something like SS wouldn't be allowed in.

 

[Knight-Tale]

Movies that are partly shot in china and feature their celebs *see transformers 4*
Movies that cater to their nationalistic sensibilities *see Dr Strange Ancient One controversy*
Movies that don't have japanese anything

Ultimately though China only has a select number of pictures it can show else its domestic film market would crumble.
I highly doubt suicide squad was too violent but BvS was okay to show

 

[idiot09]

Mark Hughes on twitter :
"
Oh there will be a sequel. Yes.

Either we'll get Harley spinoff, or that concept will essentially become SS2.

The break-even point is a/b $600M, give or take a few million.

It's doing very well, it's a hit.

fell only 36% from last weekend overseas, & its 52% domestic dip is one of the smallest of 2016 for comic films. $572M so far."

 

[harlequinade]

Normally I'd be glad, but this being a hit means WB may not learn and continue to mess up films in post production

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Normally I'd be glad, but this being a hit means WB may not learn and continue to mess up films in post production

I really don't think that WB will go out of their way to screw up another DCEU movie. They have made a big mistake by interfering with the making of SS but that was a reactionary measure to the extreme hate and vitriol that BvS received or it's what I believe happened. I do think they they care about these movies but again the reaction to the previous movie was so extreme that it shook 'em up and they tried to do something different but it clearly made them look bad.

Now do they really want bad PR for their movies? I don't think so and I believe the future of DCEU is in good hands with the involvement of Geoff Johns and Jon Berg in DC Films.

 

[harlequinade]

I really don't think that WB will go out of their way to screw up another DCEU movie. They have made a big mistake by interfering with the making of SS but that was a reactionary measure to the extreme hate and vitriol that BvS received or it's what I believe happened. I do think they they care about these movies but again the reaction to the previous movie was so extreme that it shook 'em up and they tried to do something different but it clearly made them look bad.

Now do they really want bad PR for their movies? I don't think so and I believe the future of DCEU is in good hands with the involvement of Geoff Johns and Jon Berg in DC Films.

I don't really have much faith in these guys anymore. And the way they look at it could be 'hey false marketing and interfering with the movie payed off!' since the film is a financial success

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I don't really have much faith in these guys anymore. And the way they look at it could be 'hey false marketing and interfering with the movie payed off!' since the film is a financial success

Well I disagree with you there, I think WB are getting the message loud and clear on what needs to be done to improve the DCEU but to each his own.

 

[dragonjo8]

Updated numbers. Budgets added (since a few of you may have thought they were left off intentionally)...

Marvel

Worldwide Gross (adjusted)
Iron Man - $706,305,286 (est.)
The Incredible Hulk - $317,957,054 (est.)
Iron Man 2 - $680,087,331 (est.)

Sub Total - $1,704,349,671 (est.)

Thor - $485,272,747 (est.)

Total for 4 movies - $2,189,622,418 (est.)

Production Budgets (adjusted)
Iron Man - $156,479,400 (est.)
The Incredible Hulk - $167,656,500 (est.)
Iron Man 2 - $220,700,000 (est.)

Sub Total - $544,835,900 (est.)

Thor - $160,470,000 (est.)

Total budgets for 4 movies - $705,305,900

Ticket sales - budget = $1,484,316,518

DC

Worldwide Gross (adjusted)
Man of Steel - $688,086,884 (est.)
Batman v Superman - $872,662,631 (no adjustment)
Suicide Squad - $572,683,335 (and growing)

Sub Total - $2,133,432,850

Production Budgets (adjusted)
Man of Steel - $232,427,336 (est.)
Batman v Superman - $250,000,000 (no adjustment)
Suicide Squad - $175,000,000 (no adjustment)

Total budgets for 3 movies - $657,427,336

Ticket sales - budget = $1,476,005,514

DC will match Marvel when Suicide Squad adds $8,311,004 (probably Tuesday or Wednesday). Fourth movie added to Marvel's totals to offset the A-list/B-list argument.

 

[Greenlite]

I don't really have much faith in these guys anymore. And the way they look at it could be 'hey false marketing and interfering with the movie payed off!' since the film is a financial success

That's why we need to gang up on WB's social media (or I don't know a mini-rally??) and let it be known.

I just hope that RT score makes them reflect how much more $$$ they could have got

 

[psylockolussus]

Updated numbers. Budgets added (since a few of you may have thought they were left off intentionally)...

Marvel

Worldwide Gross (adjusted)
Iron Man - $706,305,286 (est.)
The Incredible Hulk - $317,957,054 (est.)
Iron Man 2 - $680,087,331 (est.)

Sub Total - $1,704,349,671 (est.)

Thor - $485,272,747 (est.)

Total for 4 movies - $2,189,622,418 (est.)

Production Budgets (adjusted)
Iron Man - $156,479,400 (est.)
The Incredible Hulk - $167,656,500 (est.)
Iron Man 2 - $220,700,000 (est.)

Sub Total - $544,835,900 (est.)

Thor - $160,470,000 (est.)

Total budgets for 4 movies - $705,305,900

Ticket sales - budget = $1,484,316,518

DC

Worldwide Gross (adjusted)
Man of Steel - $688,086,884 (est.)
Batman v Superman - $872,662,631 (no adjustment)
Suicide Squad - $572,683,335 (and growing)

Sub Total - $2,133,432,850

Production Budgets (adjusted)
Man of Steel - $232,427,336 (est.)
Batman v Superman - $250,000,000 (no adjustment)
Suicide Squad - $175,000,000 (no adjustment)

Total budgets for 3 movies - $657,427,336

Ticket sales - budget = $1,476,005,514

DC will match Marvel when Suicide Squad adds $8,311,004 (probably Tuesday or Wednesday). Fourth movie added to Marvel's totals to offset the A-list/B-list argument.

I'm sorry but what is the point of this? You realized that movie tickets are much more expensive now than in 2008/2010?

 

[PacificBoy]

Movies that are partly shot in china and feature their celebs *see transformers 4*
Movies that cater to their nationalistic sensibilities *see Dr Strange Ancient One controversy*
Movies that don't have japanese anything

Ultimately though China only has a select number of pictures it can show else its domestic film market would crumble.
I highly doubt suicide squad was too violent but BvS was okay to show

China has shown Japanese films or featured Japanese stars and roles before. Seems to me it's more a case of WB needing to establish more of a working relationship with the China Firm Group.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

China has shown Japanese films or featured Japanese stars and roles before. Seems to me it's more a case of WB needing to establish more of a working relationship with the China Firm Group.

SS is not releasing in China because their government wouldn't allow a movie where bad fights the evil because that is supposed to be totally out of line from Chinese sensibilities. They also have restrictions on movies featuring ghosts so there's that as well.

The working relationship is just fine, all the other WB movies are released over there and this is just a one-off case with SS.

 

[Longshot777]

I'm sorry but what is the point of this? You realized that movie tickets are much more expensive now than in 2008/2010?

And tastes of audiences in the matahuman/enhanced/mutant movie era has also changed.

Marvel was the first to set a movie universe and has set the bar. And Marvel came at the right time with no competition that was doing the whole universe thing while superhero movies were at its peak.

It's harder for DC to impress audiences without having people say, oh that's been done before or they are just copying Marvel.

There is some superhero fatigue going on today, not that much, but it's there for some audiences of today.

 

[PacificBoy]

SS is not releasing in China because their government wouldn't allow a movie where bad fights the evil because that is supposed to be totally out of line from Chinese sensibilities. They also have restrictions on movies featuring ghosts so there's that as well.

The working relationship is just fine, all the other WB movies are released over there and this is just a one-off case with SS.

I'm Chinese so I'm aware of the vague guidelines imposed. Chinese cinema has featured dirty dozen type and supernatural themed movies before. It boils down to the movie in question and the studio backing it and how far the negotiations go.

 

[combocaz]

you guys recon it can make a push for 700+ ww?

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I'm Chinese so I'm aware of the vague guidelines imposed. Chinese cinema has featured dirty dozen type and supernatural themed movies before. It boils down to the movie in question and the studio backing it and how far the negotiations go.

I apologize if I was being insensitive.

Would you happen to know what actually went wrong during the negotiations? I don't think it's just that WB and Chinese distributors could not agree over the percentage of BO, studios usually get around 25% of the total gross in China so that wouldn't be big problem so what went south during talks?

 

[PacificBoy]

I apologize if I was being insensitive.

Would you happen to know what actually went wrong during the negotiations? I don't think it's just that WB and Chinese distributors could not agree over the percentage of BO, studios usually get around 25% of the total gross in China so that wouldn't be big problem so what went south during talks?

You were hardly insensitive, no apologies required.

Nothing official has been said one way or the other, the last I looked. Could well be that or something yet to be reported/speculated. Having said that, the official line could end up citing Katana or the supernatural elements as the reason for banning it -- the guidelines are that arbitrary. t:. I've seen more offensive stuff (as deemed by the local authorities) in other Chinese movies in China. Which is why I peg the movie's no-show more to a breakdown of talks between WB and China Firm Co.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

You were hardly insensitive, no apologies required.

Nothing official has been said one way or the other, the last I looked. Could well be that or something yet to be reported/speculated. Having said that, the official line could end up citing Katana or the supernatural elements as the reason for banning it -- the guidelines are that arbitrary. t:. I've seen more offensive stuff (as deemed by the local authorities) in other Chinese movies in China. Which is why I peg the movie's no-show more to a breakdown of talks between WB and China Firm Co.

Well that's a bummer, SS could have made a killing at the chinese BO.

 

[PacificBoy]

Well that's a bummer, SS could have made a killing at the chinese BO.

I think it'd have done well for itself there too. Would likely make more than BvS for one, and help get DC over with the movie-going audience.

 

[OutOfBoose]

I'm glad it's doing OK. Means WB won't run out of money before they can try to right the ship.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

If they meet their financial goals they have little incentive to "right he ship" (IE make big, necessary changes ). Oh well.

 

[idiot09]

If they meet their financial goals they have little incentive to "right he ship" (IE make big, necessary changes ). Oh well.

I'm sure they want to do better than just "OK" though.They know that they have to make films that are universally loved and well rated by the critics to perform better at the BO.I'm sure they got that message.