Suicide Squad box office prediction - Part 2

[Blitzkrieg]

+ making one more prediction on my "gut feeling":

Suicide Squad to make $20m+ in Japan, outscoring Batman v Superman and Deadpool in that area.

I wouldn't go so far as to say it makes more than BvS but even 9-10 million in Japan is really very good. GOTG made 9.5 million in Japan and I'm hoping for similar or slightly better numbers. t:

Germany is a big market, GOTG made a whopping 24 million in Germany and that will be hard to match but SS could easily make at least 15-16 million there. It will be great result too. t:t:

 

[idiot09]

Gitesh Pandya ‏@GiteshPandya

#SuicideSquad remains #1 for 3rd wknd w/ $20.7M dropping 52%. Cume at $262.3M. On track to join this year's crowded $300M+ club.

A 52% drop is pretty good and much better than the initially predicted one.This movie seems to have much better legs than BvS.

Possibly from the positive early feedback of Robbie's performance.

I'd be kinda surprised if they did both a SS2 and a Harley Quinn movie.

There are already so many movies on the slate.I see a space for only one of SS2/HQ(BoP maybe?) spinoff.Frankly I would prefer the latter.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

http://www.comingsoon.net/movies/ne...weekend-at-the-box-office#fEppV6vQoG2KjiiB.99

Thanks for the info.

 

[Pickleweasel]

Any news on China?

Also how am I seeing people predicting 650 after this weekend? Can't see a situation where this makes less than $100 million more

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I wouldn't want SS to be a one and done chapter in the DCEU but it would be nice to explore a BOP/GCS movie.

They could bring Deadshot,Waller,Boomer and others in the main superhero universe too. I'm just speculating here knowing fully well that SS2 could still happen. t:

 

[Kathemy]

I wouldn't go so far as to say it makes more than BvS but even 9-10 million in Japan is really very good. GOTG made 9.5 million in Japan and I'm hoping for similar or slightly better numbers. t:

I think it'll murder GotG in that market. At the very least I don't see it doing worse than BvS which did $16.5m.

Germany is a big market, GOTG made a whopping 24 million in Germany and that will be hard to match but SS could easily make at least 15-16 million there. It will be great result too. t:t:

Based on the opening weekend and the generally better legs of SS than BvS I think it'll do 19-20 million.

SS Germany OW: $6.8m, BvS Germany OW: $6.95m, BvS Germany total: $19m

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I think it'll murder GotG in that market. At the very least I don't see it doing worse than BvS which did $16.5m.
Based on the opening weekend and the generally better legs of SS than BvS I think it'll do 19-20 million.

SS Germany OW: $6.8m, BvS Germany OW: $6.95m, BvS Germany total: $19m

You are making too many good points and I'm just being cautious with my predictions. I really hope you're the one who's closer to being accurate all the frickin' way. t:

 

[CaptainWagner]

I really hope that this box office will be enough to earn a sequel.

And meanwhile, it's kind of sad looking at comments on other sights and seeing people insisting that the continued box office draw is only due to "desperate DC fanatics"...

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Any news on China?

Also how am I seeing people predicting 650 after this weekend? Can't see a situation where this makes less than $100 million more

No good news, China release looks bleak.

SS will do well overseas but in domestic market it doesn't look like it will have outstanding legs, a la GOTG. 300-302 million is still on the cards but I'm not going further north of that.

I could be wrong though.

 

[Patchwork Man]

I really hope that this box office will be enough to earn a sequel.

I thought a Suicide Squad 2 was a lock, based on its performance during its first two weekends.

I don't think anyone predicted the film being the top grosser for three straight weekends. I certainly didn't...this is great! t:

And meanwhile, it's kind of sad looking at comments on other sights and seeing people insisting that the continued box office draw is only due to "desperate DC fanatics"...

Yes, the goalposts are being moved again, but that's not an uncommon sight nowadays. That's fine. That would suggest there are quite a few of us. t:

 

[Marvin]

I thought a Suicide Squad 2 was a lock, based on its performance during its first two weekends.

I don't think anyone predicted the film being the top grosser for three straight weekends. I certainly didn't...this is great! t:

I hear these decisions are often made during the opening weekends.

 

[Patchwork Man]

No good news, China release looks bleak.

SS will do well overseas but in domestic market it doesn't look like it will have outstanding legs, a la GOTG.

It's doing alright, considering all the new openings. Next week I expect Don't Breathe to knock it out of first. It's been a great season for horror films at the box office.

It's too bad Suicide Squad probably won't open in China. 700-800 million would be a sure thing.

 

[Patchwork Man]

I hear these decisions are often made during the opening weekends.

Warner Bros. did say they were very happy with the opening weekend!

 

[Pokkle]

$572.6m global total
https://***********/BoxOffice/status/767388475851091968

 

[JKKS085]

a)I havent claimed you said anything,so I didnt twist any of your words.While you did because I said "it played a part" while you were arguing "whether it played a big part".And you again say "You assumed no one will elaborate "..when have I stopped anyone from elaborating or discussing this said topic?I merely stated my reading of the situation.You are free to disagree with it.But okay,lets put this down to miscommunication,and I will believe your intentions were not bad.

b) First,I claimed SS's marketing played a part in the frontloading.You seem to agree with my on this.That was the only thing I claimed and we agree on that I think.Moving on to your question about comparing it to other movies.

c)I dont think comparing it to TDKR is a good comparison despite the similarities.Why?And these are just my opinions here.I thought the TDKR is a great movie.I was not surprised by its great BO run.SS is not a "great" movie imo.Its a decent fun flick.TDKR was made by Nolan,thats a big thing and shouldnt be compared to SS which is meant to be a much smaller movie so I am not surprised by its lesser BO performance.And regarding the drop,I dont think TDKR(a Batman movie made by Nolan after the TDK) making $160mil OW is overachieving.However a Suicide Squad movie making $133mil OW is certainly over achieving in my book,which imo was partly down to the absolutely brilliant marketing and the fanboy effect. Had it completely derailed after OW like other movies we know,then I would have agreed with you.However its more like the Twilight saga or HP sequels where it has a decent run after the over-achieving OW.Thats my opinion,and my reading of the situation.

In terms of final gross I completely agree of course. No one expected SS to gross as much as TDKR of course, the film isn't budgeted accordingly anyways. I was indeed talking about drops and multiplier. I would also agree that TDKR grossing 160M isn't overachieving but I guess I do not need to remind anyone of the tragic circumstances that followed the movie's opening. But look, the thing is we are not arguing semantics here. TDKR managed a 2.8 multiplier which is leagues above the 2.25/2.26 multiplier SS is realistically gonna end with. There is just no comparison. And again SS is an "origin movie" one that is likely to be less frontloaded than the follow up to a sequel. The problem is this, each and every movie in the DCEU so far as shown more frontloading than other entries in the genre save for the likes of the critically slammed Fant4stic and X-Men Origins Wolverine. To give you an example, even if you take Superman Returns' first 5 days total (the movie was released on a Wednesday) it still displays a stronger holding power than Man of Steel (that's virtually a 2.38 multiplier against MoS' 2.27). And that's not saying that Superman Returns had a more successful run than MoS (because it surely did not).

If you take the competition now. Out of the three current entries in the DCEU, Suicide Squad is expected to display one of the stronger final multiplier (I think we can safely project something around 2.25/2.26, especially with the upcoming Labor Day week end which is sure to give it a boost). That is on par with Man Of Steel and on par with Marvel Studios' Captain America Civil War ... which is their most frontloaded movie so far, and the 13th entry in the MCU. Basically for these kind of movies opening week end shows levels on brand recognition, the efficiency of the marketing efforts and the loyalty of your built-in fanbase. The lack of staying power of the DCEU films (all the way down to the record breaking sub 2x multiplier of BvS) shows that they are not being embraced by the general audience as much as previous movies from the same studio or other efforts from the competition. And that is something to worry about because multipliers usually don't get better with each movie (see the current Marvel Studios trend). And with generally poorly received movies, increasing opening week ends is absolutely not a given for future installments as the novelty wear off which would lead to a case of diminishing returns that could cripple WB's ambition for the future of their shared universe and halt their efforts to bring some less known properties to the silver screen. Or even worse, it can cause them to micromanage their projects even more.

It is important that you understand that I am not taking a jab at SS' global performance. As it turns out it's probably going to be the most solid effort of the DCEU at the box office, based on its reported budget and I would say the realistic expectations you can have with this type of property. However it has not been the critically acclaimed break out hit than some expected after two disappointing movies. It did not right the ship as it was supposed to, which explains some of the disappointment out there that some rabid fans are quick to call doom and gloom in what I can only assume is mostly a reassuring effort. It is also cementing a trend of critical frontloading that is worrying for the future of a DCEU already built on weak foundations and that even franchises such as Twilight or Transformers only experienced in much later installments.

Disclaimer: I know that the 3 first DCEU films made more than the first 3 MCU films. I know that the first 3 DCEU film turned more than 2B in theatrical gross. I am not discussing the notion of A/B/C/D/ list characters. I know what frontloading means. I know that SS reported production budget is 175M. I know that the domestic cume is still a very good number for the IP and I am just commenting on the drops/multiplier. I know that those are just domestic numbers and that there are other countries in the world where the film might or might not hold better. I know that it is beating several Marvel films. I know that it is just the 3rd DCEU film. I am neither a Marvelite nor a DC hater and just like commenting on numbers despite my Iron Man avatar (that I didn't change since 2008). I am not about doom and gloom. I just like to put raw numbers into perspective by using context and factoring in things such as expectations, competition and IP potential. I am also interested in what the numbers say about the potential future of a franchise. I don't think the DCEU is gonna end anytime soon. I don't wish for the DCEU to end anytime soon. I can adjust numbers for inflation. I don't wear rose colored glasses, or blue colored glasses or any glasses for that matter. I roughly know how much studios get from theatrical runs and therefore can estimate how much profit they make (if at all). I can estimate how much P&A costs and I know that studios also get revenues from merchandise, TV rights and home video.

 

[kguillou]

Thats great news. $600M should be reached by the end of next week. And then the road to $625 begins.

Warner bros really needs to announce the damn sequel, an unknown property with toxic review reviews made this much, if they get it right next time, they could easily clear close to a $1B.

 

[JKKS085]

Thats great news. $600M should be reached by the end of next week. And then the road to $625 begins.

Warner bros really needs to announce the damn sequel, an unknown property with toxic review reviews made this much, if they get it right next time, they could easily clear close to a $1B.

Don't you think there's a risk that the mediocre reception actually carries over to the sequel and impacts its number even if they manage to release a better film ?

 

[Zero_Effect]

I really hope that this box office will be enough to earn a sequel.

And meanwhile, it's kind of sad looking at comments on other sights and seeing people insisting that the continued box office draw is only due to "desperate DC fanatics"...

It will get a sequel. I am sure we will find out a release date soon. Hopefully a lower budgeted sequel & they need to make sure the movie agreed upon in pre-production is the movie released.

 

[kguillou]

Don't you think there's a risk that the mediocre reception actually carries over to the sequel and impacts its number even if they manage to release a better film ?

I see what your saying but for this property I don't. I think if the sequel is really good, good word of mouth will spread. Granted, even if its really good, I don't think it will hit $1B, but I think it could be in the $850-4900 stratosphere.

 

[idiot09]

It is important that you understand that I am not taking a jab at SS' global performance. As it turns out it's probably going to be the most solid effort of the DCEU at the box office, based on its reported budget and I would say the realistic expectations you can have with this type of properties. However it has not been the critically acclaimed break out hit than some expected after two disappointing movies. It did not right the ship as it was supposed to, which explains some of the disappointment out there that some rabid fans are quick to call doom and gloom in what I can only assume is mostly a reassuring effort. It is also cementing a trend of critical frontloading that is worrying for the future of a DCEU already built on weak foundations and that even franchises such as Twilight, Transformers and Harry Potter only experienced in much later installments.

It has not been a critically acclaimed hit,and no one has not even claimed it.I dont know why you are bringing that up.We all know,SS was blasted critically.Despite that SS has done well in the BO,it will end up with a decent multplier,and probably end up with a total multiplier(domestic+overseas) of around 2.5.The frontloading had many reasons(terrible reviews,quality of the movie,rewatchibility,competition,time of the year etc) and still it was better than BvS in that regard so obviously it should follow that with a better movie,and better reviews the movies have a potential of earning even more.I think rather than argue about the semantics we should both agree that SS has done well in the BO and hasnt withered away in the following weeks(it had 52% drop in the third week which is good) and that shows that this movie had legs.And I would agree with you that the movies need to do better critically and make the movies better(SS was flawed) and that would make the BO even better.

 

[idiot09]

Guardians of the Galaxy did a little over $340 M, not including China (would then be $440) total. Suicide Squad is already at $310.4 M WW after its 3rd weekend in most territories, and 1st in some.Thats quite good

 

[LoganGambit87]

Don't you think there's a risk that the mediocre reception actually carries over to the sequel and impacts its number even if they manage to release a better film ?

this was no BVS type of reception tons of people especially general audiences really liked suicide squad or just thought it was solid

lot of people like this film even on this very board SS will be fine moving forward

 

[rashad]

No good news, China release looks bleak.

SS will do well overseas but in domestic market it doesn't look like it will have outstanding legs, a la GOTG. 300-302 million is still on the cards but I'm not going further north of that.

I could be wrong though.

I could see a 310 finish.

 

[brandeezy89]

Should be around 300M-305M by the end of next week

 

[Ozbridge]

Should be around 300M-305M by the end of next week

It made 40M in the last 7 days. How can it also makes 38-43M in the next 7 days?