Suicide Squad box office prediction - Part 2

[dragonjo8]

Growing up in the UK I don't think I'd ever heard a mention of Iron Man in any media outside of the comics themselves until the film was announced.

Although he has always been an A-Lister to me (a life long comic book fan) I realize he was not necessarily popular (or even known) to the general audience before Iron Man 1. That argument can't be made post that movie, however.

 

[Iceman]

Although he has always been an A-Lister to me (a life long comic book fan) I realize he was not necessarily popular (or even known) to the general audience before Iron Man 1. That argument can't be made post the movie, however.

Post-movie of course not! He's made by far the biggest surge in popularity and awareness of any comic character in the last decade. I do think sometimes it's difficult for especially US guys to realise that some of the biggest stars like Iron Man and Flash and Green Lantern were almost total unknowns to non-comics (or I guess animation) fans even in other Western countries, nevermind the rest of the world. The mainstream media mentioned the likes of Superman, Batman, Spidey, Hulk and Wonder Woman, maybe Cap and not a whole lot else.

 

[Creo]

Although he has always been an A-Lister to me (a life long comic book fan) I realize he was not necessarily popular (or even known) to the general audience before Iron Man 1. That argument can't be made post the movie, however.

I disagree completely, I don't think any of them hit A-list until the Avengers. Every Spider-Man movie, even the bad ones that crashed the series, made more than Iron Man 1 and 2 just on name alone. MoS, coming off of the poorly received SR and being an extremely divisive movie, made around the same money (and IM 2 was received well critically and with the GA). He was big, but he hadn't ingrained himself into our culture like Bats, Supes, or Spider-Man until the Avengers, where him and several others jumped into the A-list category

 

[Erzengel]

I think if you look up most popular comic book characters, Top 6 are at least Batman, Superman, Wonder Woman, Spider-Man and Wolverine. I think even Cap or even Hulk may be higher than Iron Man.

 

[Iceman]

Also I wonder how many solo films they could make of Iron man every 3 years and still be popular. The big 3 have been done to death at this point having been massively successful and are now in a different phase of continual reinvention. We've yet to see how well Iron Man survives that long term and the first big test will come when they have to recast.

 

[Erzengel]

That's why I was uninterested in TASM series and love to see interactions with the Avengers.

We've seen Batman for 7 movies and they've repeated Joker 3 times, Catwoman, Two face, Bane twice, I want to see him with Superman.

 

[dragonjo8]

It's not necessarily the amount of movies, my point is how ingrained in popular culture characters like Superman and Batman who been in since the 1940s, Serials, TV Shows, Animated, Movies, etc.

These characters have been in media for like 70 years. That's part of the reason why they probably rank in the top 3 of CB characters. It's that type of pedigree that allows a movie as panned as BvS to do well.

Do you think if Iron Man 1 was a bust, people would be clamoring for a sequel or a reboot? Of course not.

Iron Man for as popular as he's been in the past 8 years thanks to RDJ and the movies, doesn't have the long history of Batman and Superman, therefore it's not an even comparison.

These statements alone are probably at the root of all the hate (and the reason DC films seem to be held to a higher standard). The perception is DC should be knocking it out of the park (and they should be) based on their 'pedigree'. There is also probably a little bit of Marvel fans (always kind of playing second fiddle to DC) finally having something to gloat about. But come on folks... we're SUPERHERO fans. Let's stop all the Marvel vs DC crap. Marvel's successes should be DC's successes and vice versa.

 

[Iceman]

That's why I was uninterested in TASM series and love to see interactions with the Avengers.

We've seen Batman for 7 movies and they've repeated Joker 3 times, Catwoman, Two face, Bane twice, I want to see him with Superman.

This is another problem. With every new effort we seem to get the same big villains and origin stories retold. Having them interact with characters they've never interacted with before on screen feels much more fresh.

 

[dragonjo8]

I disagree completely, I don't think any of them hit A-list until the Avengers. Every Spider-Man movie, even the bad ones that crashed the series, made more than Iron Man 1 and 2 just on name alone. MoS, coming off of the poorly received SR and being an extremely divisive movie, made around the same money (and IM 2 was received well critically and with the GA). He was big, but he hadn't ingrained himself into our culture like Bats, Supes, or Spider-Man until the Avengers, where him and several others jumped into the A-list category

Again...I wasn't arguing as to who is more popular or more ingrained in pop culture. I was merely addressing A-list status. Sorry, but the 20 fold bump in RDJ's salary is enough of an OBJECTIVE metric to see, without question, the character had reached A-list status. The studio was obviously confident in this, otherwise the increase would not have been so dramatic.

 

[Iceman]

Again...I wasn't arguing as to who is more popular or more ingrained in pop culture. I was merely addressing A-list status. Sorry, but the 20 fold bump in RDJ's salary is enough of an OBJECTIVE metric to see, without question, the character had reached A-list status. The studio was obviously confident in this, otherwise the increase would not have been so dramatic.

I'm not disagreeing with you here. But would RDJ's successor be getting a similar pay cheque? I think RDJ as Iron Man is A list but I don't know if Iron Man without RDJ is long term A list just yet, while Batman (who is much more deeply ingrained in the GA's psyche over many decades) is A list whichever incarnation we see of him.

 

[LoganGambit87]

That's why I was uninterested in TASM series and love to see interactions with the Avengers.

We've seen Batman for 7 movies and they've repeated Joker 3 times, Catwoman, Two face, Bane twice, I want to see him with Superman.

i want to see batman interacting with deathstroke,black mask.red hood

 

[Iceman]

It will be fun in the future of the DCEU if we get to see some of these SS guys interacting with other heroes. There's still a lot of potential there, they just need a strong course correction over the next 2 films. Whatever they are doing now is crucial on all fronts.

 

[seriesofdreams]

I'm not disagreeing with you here. But would RDJ's successor be getting a similar pay cheque? I think RDJ as Iron Man is A list but I don't know if Iron Man without RDJ is long term A list just yet, while Batman (who is much more deeply ingrained in the GA's psyche over many decades) is A list whichever incarnation we see of him.

THAT is the big question when RDJ retires from the role. Heavy lies that crown. Whomever it is, will need to knock it out of the park or at least make a strong impression on the GA for Iron Man to endure as an A-lister.

 

[dragonjo8]

I'm not disagreeing with you here. But would RDJ's successor be getting a similar pay cheque? I think RDJ as Iron Man is A list but I don't know if Iron Man without RDJ is long term A list just yet, while Batman (who is much more deeply ingrained in the GA's psyche over many decades) is A list whichever incarnation we see of him.

Probably not. For now, however, the character Iron Man will be an A-Lister sans RDJ going forward (unless Marvel really drops the ball).

You're points are actually something I touched upon in an earlier post. A lot of the debate regarding Marvel vs DC is always rooted in factors that tend to be SUBJECTIVE in nature. You hear things like Marvel movies are more successful because they have better stories/plots, heroes, directors, etc. I decided to take a look at OBJECTIVE factors to explain Marvel's success. I did this by putting all the movies of the modern Marvel and DC universes into 2 groups; those that made more than 700 million in worldwide grosses and those that made less. With the exception of Iron Man 2, the most successful superhero movies have at least one of the following:

- Multiple (2 or more) superheroes
- RDJ

Films that exceed a billion dollars in worldwide receipts have both of these factors.

 

[JKKS085]

I did this by putting all the movies of the modern Marvel and DC universes into 2 groups; those that made more than 700 million in worldwide grosses and those that made less. With the exception of Iron Man 2, the most successful superhero movies have at least one of the following:

- Multiple (2 or more) superheroes
- RDJ

Films that exceed a billion dollars in worldwide receipts have both of these factors.

The Dark Knight and The Dark Knight Rises made 1B+. Both Amazing Spider-Man films grossed past 700M along with Captain America The Winter Soldier.

 

[dragonjo8]

The Dark Knight and The Dark Knight Rises made 1B+. Both Amazing Spider-Man films grossed past 700M along with Captain America The Winter Soldier.

I think you might have missed where I said this examination was based on the modern universes (of which there are 13 Marvel movies and 3 DC movies). All the Spidey and Nolan Batman films were not included. The Winter Soldier had 3 (or 4, depending on whether or not you consider the Winter Soldier a villain or hero) superheroes...Captain America, The Falcon, and Black Widow (Natasha Romanoff).

 

[chamber-music]

Growing up in the UK I don't think I'd ever heard a mention of Iron Man in any media outside of the comics themselves until the film was announced.

I remember the nineties Iron Man cartoon being on sky1 as a kid.

I've never really understood people's obsession with categorizing characters A, B, C, ect.

I've seen people on websites endless talk about where a character fits on a list to either prop up or belittle or distinguish a certain character they like or dislike.

None it really matters.

Popularity shifts all the time. Things go out of fashion and then later return to being fashionable.

 

[dragonjo8]

I remember the nineties Iron Man cartoon being on sky1 as a kid.

I've never really understood people's obsession with categorizing characters A, B, C, ect.

I've seen people on websites endless talk about where a character fits on a list to either prop up or belittle or distinguish a certain character they like or dislike.

None it really matters.

Popularity shifts all the time. Things go out of fashion and then later return to being fashionable.

I could not agree more. Unfortunately, whenever the pro Marvel folks assert Marvel is far more financially successful than DC, the pro DC folks point out the first 3 films of each franchise has DC more financially successful. The Marvel fans invariably counter with the notion of A-list and B-list heroes or adjusted box office grosses. I simply pointed out that even when these things are considered, DC still comes out on top (or at least they will if Suicide Squad earns $120,000,000 more in worldwide grosses).

 

[atomicbattery]

DC is more prfofitable than Marvel at dollar one.
Unlike Disney, Warner isn't paying down a four billion dollar acquisition fee.

 

[writer0327]

I could not agree more. Unfortunately, whenever the pro Marvel folks assert Marvel is far more financially successful than DC, the pro DC folks point out the first 3 films of each franchise has DC more financially successful. The Marvel fans invariably counter with the notion of A-list and B-list heroes or adjusted box office grosses. I simply pointed out that even when these things are considered, DC still comes out on top (or at least they will if Suicide Squad earns $120,000,000 more in worldwide grosses).

I liken the A list, B list heroes to A list, B list directors, actors, etc.. I know people who went to see SS for no other reason than Will Smith was in it. Character star power is just as huge, which is why the Joker was heavily marketed for this film.

The DCEU first 3 have been more financially successful as they should have been because of their characters star power.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

DC is more prfofitable than Marvel at dollar one.
Unlike Disney, Warner isn't paying down a four billion dollar acquisition fee.

Good call there, iirc Disney paid somewhere around 4 billion to Paramount for the rights to MCU movies while Time Warner owns DC entirely.

 

[dragonjo8]

DC is more prfofitable than Marvel at dollar one.
Unlike Disney, Warner isn't paying down a four billion dollar acquisition fee.

By now, when you consider all the money Star Wars TFA made along with the money the Marvel movies have made since they were acquired (plus all the merchandising) Disney is probably already in the black (with regard to that 4 billion dollar investment).

 

[dragonjo8]

Good call there, iirc Disney paid somewhere around 4 billion to Paramount for the rights to MCU movies while Time Warner owns DC entirely.

Whoa... didn't realize they paid that much for Marvel as well (the Lucas films deal was also 4 billion). Well... okay... maybe not in the black yet, but certainly not too far (they have 4 - billion dollar plus films under their belt). They can't be too far (if they aren't there already).

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Whoa... didn't realize they paid that much for Marvel as well (the Lucas films deal was also 4 billion). Well... okay... maybe not in the black yet, but certainly not too far (they have 4 - billion dollar plus films under their belt). They can't be too far (if they aren't there already).

Yep that's not to say Disney aren't making profits with these MCU movies, all their movies are wildly successful and they already have more than 10 million in BO alone, that is huge.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Deadline is reporting a 19-20 million 3rd weekend, a 55% drop from 2nd weekend. It's not a bad result but I hope it does better than that.

http://deadline.com/2016/08/ben-hur-war-dogs-suicide-squad-sausage-party-weekend-box-office-1201805947/

According to matinees, Warner Bros.’ Suicide Squad is on course to secure $19M-$20M in its third weekend, -55%. That will take Suicide Squad past $260M by Sunday, +17% over Guardians of the Galaxy‘s running cume at the same point in time.