Suicide Squad box office prediction - Part 2

[JKKS085]

Rebate is an amount of money repaid by way of reduction or refund for what has already been paid or contributed.

So if an electric toothbrush has a rebait offer, you pay the full amount at checkout at a store, and then you send in the barcode and rebate form to get back a partially refunded check of the amount. It's an incentive to buy the item, possibly at a certain store. So even though you paid full price on the item, with the rebate incentive, you get money back on the purchase.

So if the budget was closer to $233 million, then they still got a $36 million rebate on that budget probably for shooting on location in the UK. Certain countries or territories offer nice tax incentives or rebates to give big studios incentive to bring their big productions there, use local workers and talent and bring jobs to the region. It's one reason why a lot of big productions don't want to shoot in SoCal anymore. Because there's very little tax incentive to do so.

Thanks. GotG's production is whatever they paid minus tax rebates which bows down to a little under 200M. All the reported production budgets factor in tax rebates anyways. I don't know exactly why the Forbes article put so much emphasise on the pre tax rebate number. Maybe it makes for a better headline than a sub 200M pb compared to the originally reported 175M.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

IMAX has announced that it will add extra IMAX 2D showings from this Friday.

 

[Greenlite]

Just a point on the Chinese ban, I talked to my wife who's Chinese and she reckons it's totally not due to violence and ghost - there are more violent films shown there (I think even the films on chinese dynasties/wars are brutal), and she or her friends saw The Grudge in China.

She thinks it's Katana's mask it is way too out there for CCP, who can accept Superman and Captain America's disguised US flag costumes, but a Japanese flag wearing "hero" is too much. Plus there are anti-toyota/kfc/apple stuff happening there after the south china sea court ruling so that anti-jap/US sentiment is pretty high there, my guess is they are trying to hype up the nation during olympics as well and sun yang's trash talk with Horton does not tone down the "Us vs the world" sentiment, meanwhile WB asks them if a movie with Katana can be approved...

Haven't asked her the anti-social reason yet, Minions were banned there so you get the gist

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Estimates for the 3rd weekend.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4216&p=.htm

Before we get to the weekend's new releases we'll begin with a couple of carryovers, starting with Suicide Squad, which, along with 19 other wide release films in 2016, dropped over 60% in its second weekend. Of those 20 films, eleven opened in over 3,000 theaters and the average third weekend drop was 52.8% including the massive 80.5% third weekend drop for Hardcore Henry as well as last weekend's 32.3% drop for Jason Bourne on the opposite end of the spectrum. Given Henry also dropped 2,496 theaters in that third weekend it's best to leave it out of the equation, giving us an average third weekend drop of 49.7%.

Narrowing that grouping down specifically to superhero films, X-Men: Apocalypse dropped 56.6% in its third weekend and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice dropped 54.5%. All things considered, including the film's "B+" CinemaScore, all the indicators we're looking at suggest a third weekend drop around 48-50% for another weekend at #1 with approximately $22 million.

 

[Chesterfield]

MOS and BVS also did better than the first 2 Marvel Movies.

Yeah because 2008 was only in the last 3 years

 

[Limonade]

Yeah because 2008 was only in the last 3 years

Yeah without adjustment to inflation... I have a hard time buying that argument as well. Otherwise, people can say... "Hey, it did better than Gone with the Wind!"

 

[JKKS085]

Yeah I mean and its quite impressive that coming off 2 billion $ making Batman films, a $250M crossover event featuring Batman, Superman and Wonder Woman together on screen for the first time managed to outgross a solo Hulk movie that came out 8 years ago, without 3D, PLF, Imax ... and a mere 5 years after the raging success of the universally acclaimed and beloved Ang Lee Hulk. We're definitely holding DC to higher standards.

 

[Knight-Tale]

I mean if we judge DC by the same first 3 movie standards that Marvel has then DC is utterly way ahead of them.
applause for WB/DC

 

[Erzengel]

Well not critically.

 

[Poni_Boy]

I mean if we judge DC by the same first 3 movie standards that Marvel has then DC is utterly way ahead of them.
applause for WB/DC

If we judge DC by the same standards as the Back to the Future movies they're even bigger successes. Because context doesn't matter or whatever.

 

[Bats123]

so if im correct, this still wont even touch GOTG in WW totals right?

 

[writer0327]

2008 ticket prices vs. 2016 ticket prices. Not a fair fight.

Tickets sold folks. The only fair measurement.

 

[Creo]

If we judge DC by the same standards as the Back to the Future movies they're even bigger successes. Because context doesn't matter or whatever.

And the original Star Wars series by a long shot. What hot garbage those movies are.

 

[Erzengel]

Well as long as we all agree that Iron Man 3 is better than TDK because it made more.

 

[JKKS085]

so if im correct, this still wont even touch GOTG in WW totals right?

Nope, not by a long shot neither domestically or worldwide. It should even still be off of GotG unadjusted total without China when it's all said and done

But hey, Suicide Squad is just coming out of DC's crossover event that was supposed to erase The Avengers from the tablets so as long as it barely beats the unadjusted total of the 3D less, 6 yo pre-Avengers Iron Man 2 that means DC is winning.

Of course you would have to ignore the putrid reception and abyssmal drops at the box office and pretend that it's all boding very well for the rest of their slate but hey, it's not so hard. Some people have been doing this ever since MoS came out. It's all good.

 

[Greenlite]

Ss is flopping

dc sucks!!!!!

 

[Silliminite]

Has SS really been banned in China? No hope of the film being released there?

 

[Wildcard]

Last I heard it was potentially going to get a release date in China after all...unless something's changed (again).

 

[dragonjo8]

Yeah without adjustment to inflation... I have a hard time buying that argument as well. Otherwise, people can say... "Hey, it did better than Gone with the Wind!"

(sigh)Ok, here you go...

MARVEL

Domestic Gross (adjusted)
Iron Man - $384,034,200
The Incredible Hulk - $162,594,400
Iron Man 2 - $340,336,200

Total - $886,964,800

Worldwide Gross (adjusted)
Iron Man - $706,305,286 (est.)
The Incredible Hulk - $317,957,054 (est.)
Iron Man 2 - $680,087,331 (est.)

Total - $1,704,349,671 (est.)

Now since I couldn't find actual figures for adjusted worldwide numbers, these are estimated based on a little bit of math (I always rounded up in Marvel's favor). If someone else can provide actual numbers, please do. I have to figure my numbers are not too far off.

DC

Domestic Gross (adjusted)
Man of Steel - $300,770,200
Batman v Superman - $330,360,194 (no adjustment)
Suicide Squad - $238,002,651 (and growing)

Total - $869,133,045

Worldwide Gross (adjusted)
Man of Steel - $688,086,884 (est.)
Batman v Superman - $872,662,631 (no adjustment)
Suicide Squad - $509,000,000 (and growing)

Total - $2,069,749,515

Now before we start arguing about 'A' list and 'B' list heroes, it can be safely argued Iron Man was 'A' list by the time Iron Man 2 rolled around (although, to be frank, I've always considered him 'A' list...he's a freakin' original Avenger) and The Hulk was already 'A' list (he had a successful TV show for Christ's sake). But to be fair...let's add another Marvel movie...Thor (also an original Avenger).

Thor - $449,326,618 (estimated worldwide adjusted)

This gives Marvel a grand total (for 4 movies, mind you) of $2,189,622,418, which means Suicide Squad needs to earn $120,000,000 more (worldwide) for DC to surpass (with 3 movies, mind you).

For all the negative talk DC gets, sorry boys and girls, that's not too shabby.

 

[Greenlite]

Has SS really been banned in China? No hope of the film being released there?

Mark Hughes said it's highly unlikely to happen now in his tweets.

The Chinese guy in BOT said once it's banned it's banned.

I don't think they can shaft Katana anyway because imagine how the Japanese audience would perceive the move, and international perception.

And Minions got banned for anti-social stuff, same applied here I think.

Oh well, you lose some RMB but keep your integrity intact, that's alright.

 

[Greenlite]

For all the negative talk DC gets, sorry boys and girls, that's not too shabby.

Meh, the responses you'll get,

1. IM+Hulk = Trinity+Harley Quinn+Will Smith+Joker
2. WB spends crazy for budget+marketing, Kevin Feige controls his budget, therefore profit wise IM+Hulk > Trinity+Harley Quinn+Will Smith+Joker
3. DC has no sustainability, check the RT
4. SS won't even make 500M
5. SS won't even make 600M
6. SS making 650M is unrealistic
7. SS needs 800M to break even
8. You live in your own world and deny the reality.

 

[Micromind]

Meh, the responses you'll get,

1. IM+Hulk = Trinity+Harley Quinn+Will Smith+Joker
2. WB spends crazy for budget+marketing, Kevin Feige controls his budget, therefore profit wise IM+Hulk > Trinity+Harley Quinn+Will Smith+Joker
3. DC has no sustainability, check the RT
4. SS won't even make 500M
5. SS won't even make 600M
6. SS making 650M is unrealistic
7. SS needs 800M to break even
8. You live in your own world and deny the reality.

^ All of this and -

Batman, Superman, Lex Luthor, Joker are shown out of character, DC can't get them right.

Iron Man, Hulk, Thor are shown Exactly like they are shown in Marvel comics.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

All I need to know is that SS is well on course to crack 650 million at the BO and that by all means is a very good result for WB. As a result DCEU gathers more steam and moves forward and I get a sequel to a movie I really liked.

 

[Greenlite]

^ All of this and -

Batman, Superman, Lex Luthor, Joker are shown out of character, DC can't get them right.

Iron Man, Hulk, Thor are shown Exactly like they are shown in Marvel comics.

Yup, and there are previous incarnations in various mediums where Mandarin is an actOr and Justin Hammer is a funky dancer.

 

[Greenlite]

All I need to know is that SS is well on course to crack 650 million at the BO and that by all means is a very good result for WB. As a result DCEU gathers more steam and moves forward and I get a sequel to a movie I really liked.

If Scott Mendelson is in charge he'd grant you wish right now.