Suicide Squad box office prediction - Part 2

[Greenlite]

But the thing is, the strong legs this is showing is demonstrating that there must a be a solid word of mouth out there to carry it. Otherwise we probably wouldn't even be looking at $600M. As messy as this film is, I think a lot of the audience genuinely enjoyed this movie enough to see it again.

Yeah this is the most encouraging thing and it is playing better to some demographics then BvS did: young people, minorities and females. I hope WB can take the lessons learned from this film going forward.

Because there is certainly public interest in these characters, even those that are't your top tier Batman or Superman, and audiences seem to be slowly wrapping their heads around a separate DC cinematic universe existing.

Some people correlate poor word of mouth and b.o performance when analyzing BvS, yet when SS has better legs than Civil War they think SS has a poor wom. SS actually had better bumps on Friday and Saturday than GOTG, which you don't achieve with a poor wom.

SS has better legs than CW, which has 80-90+% on RT, and a high cinemacore, yet for them SS does not have "good" wom, not "average", but "poor".

 

[MydnightPhoenix]

As Hughes clarified yesterday,its simply because someone needs to report the positive news,that SS is doing well in the BO,that the rest of the media(majority) is refusing to do.While the media went out of its way to report every negative detail about SS(negativity sells=more clicks),when the positive news came around,they became silent.Granted there were some negatives(second weekend drop was too much etc),but there needs to be uniformity while reporting.As someone needed to do it,he did.To claim he is a dc-cheerleader is a)Deflamatory ; b)Simply untrue.

Hughes has went out of his way to defend and praise Marvel/X-Men movies before,when they deserves it (CW,Deadpool etc).

If I knew how to post memes I'd post a clapping one for you.
Any success for DC I encourage. I haven't seen SS and it doesn't look good to me, but I don't like bullies piling on DC.

 

[Kathemy]

My main difference with what most people seem to be arguing is how I am not at all sure that the "front-loading" of the DCEU films is a problem or even a bad thing.

 

[BlZARRO]

So, the film is doing well. Does it mean it's good? Well, according to many people on this very forum, yeah, it does. I have lost count to the amount of times people claimed BvS's BO results were the definitive proof that the audience didn't like it, so it's a bad movie. I guess this one must be a good movie then.

It«s also interesting to see how the dynamic of this thread completely changed as soon as good news started hitting. Some less enthusiastic regular posters completely disappeared from the thread. I kind of miss their "ah ah, you will see how this movie will underperform for being so bad" attitude.

Anyway, i hope the good results don't discourage WB from making the necessary changes.

 

[C. Lee]

A reminder......

This is the SUICIDE SQUAD Box Office prediction thread.

If you want to discuss other movie's Box Office totals then go to their forums an do so.

 

[Silliminite]

I cannot believe we are now talking about this possibly hitting $700M. I mean, wow. I think a lot,of us were wary if it would even cross 600 when this thing launchrd with the negative reviews. This is definitely demonstrating that our foreign friends REALLY like this movie.

If WB gets their act together with the sequel, we could be looking at $1B for SS2.

 

[ManWithNoName18]

I think 800 million will be in the cards for a SS 2 that has great WOM

 

[Wildcard]

^ Getting a little ahead ourselves considering this film hasn't even finished it's theatrical run yet.

 

[Kathemy]

I think 800 million will be in the cards for a SS 2 that has great WOM

800 million? If Suicide Squad "1" had got a China release it might have made 800 million...

 

[Blitzkrieg]

800 million? If Suicide Squad "1" had got a China release it might have made 800 million...

Yup, you're right. If BvS was able to gross 95 million in China then I'm confident that SS would have made at least 90 million there. If SS ends up with 710 million WW then with potential China numbers added to it, it would have taken SS past 800 million and also into the top 10 highest grossing cbm's of all time.

 

[Kathemy]

Yup, you're right. If BvS was able to gross 95 million in China then I'm confident that SS would have made at least 90 million there. If SS ends up with 710 million WW then with potential China numbers added to it, it would have taken SS past 800 million and also into the top 10 highest grossing cbm's of all time.

Of course, it's all of academic interest only since the movie needs two trillion dollars to break even.

 

[MydnightPhoenix]

Of course, it's all of academic interest only since the movie needs two trillion dollars to break even.

LoL I love that this is becoming a joke over here as well. Its sad that these movies get so much hate that people make up numbers on an invisible budget so it can be an invisible flop.

 

[Greenlite]

Yup, you're right. If BvS was able to gross 95 million in China then I'm confident that SS would have made at least 90 million there. If SS ends up with 710 million WW then with potential China numbers added to it, it would have taken SS past 800 million and also into the top 10 highest grossing cbm's of all time.

I updated the calculation, haven't got time to type it but SS might end up with 720M, slightly below that b.o tweet guy's 730M. I can't believe our predictions were SO wrong, 625M, 650-700M, all too low!!

Of course, it's all of academic interest only since the movie needs two trillion dollars to break even.

In case you missed the memo, participation for Will Smith is 500M, he's full of himself.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I updated the calculation, haven't got time to type it but SS might end up with 720M, slightly below that b.o tweet guy's 730M. I can't believe our predictions were SO wrong, 625M, 650-700M, all too low!

Take your time brother, we got time on our hands and I would definitely like to see your calculations. t:

I'm always extremely cautious with my estimates to the point of assuming abysmal drops for each coming week just to be on the safer side of things. Anyway this my revised estimates.

Domestic - 282.9+(3.5+13.6)+(2+5)+(1+2)+1.5= 311.5 million.
International - 353+18+8+4+2+1+1+10(Japan)= 397 million.
WW total - 708.5 million.

 

[Kathemy]

In case you missed the memo, participation for Will Smith is 500M, he's full of himself.

I think you are being both fair and realistic. After all, he wanted $50m to act in the vastly superior Independence Day II, so in order to get him to work for the disgusting, no-talent, politically-incorrect pigs at Suicide Squad they had to pay ten times as much.

 

[JKKS085]

A reminder......

This is the SUICIDE SQUAD Box Office prediction thread.

If you want to discuss other movie's Box Office totals then go to their forums an do so.

I fail to understand how putting Suicide Squad's performance in perpective with the rest of the DCEU films is somehow off topic.

 

[Kathemy]

If we cannot discuss the box office of Suicide Squad in relation to other movies we can't discuss it at all. We won't even have a reference frame for what a dollar is.

 

[BlZARRO]

If we cannot discuss the box office of Suicide Squad in relation to other movies we can't discuss it at all. We won't even have a reference frame for what a dollar is.

This forum can get weirdly restrictive with subjects that are completely harmless and perfectly on-topic. I don't fully understand why is it bad to make those sorts of comparisions or why is it in any way harmful to the forum. Maybe there is a reason for that, but i have never seen it explained anywhere. It seems it's more a question of "I personally don't like it, so you can't do it".

Anyway, it's better to just respect it. There isn't much you can do about it. The forum is ruled by a few people who decide what's right and what's wrong and you just have to accept it. Some forums allow users to be a little more relaxed and speak more freely. Others are more restrictive. It's just the way it is. It's just weird that other forums that belong to the same company are a lot more laid back.

Maybe the idea is simply commenting on the results without mentioning any other film. It's a weird and pointless rule if you ask me, but i think that's what this topic is supposed to be about.

 

[BlZARRO]

My main difference with what most people seem to be arguing is how I am not at all sure that the "front-loading" of the DCEU films is a problem or even a bad thing.

Front-loading is the result of great marketing and fanbase strenght. Batman is the most popular character of them all, so a lot of people can't wait to watch the new movie. So as soon as it its, a huge amount of people will see it, making it hit big numbers right in the first days. It's not a bad thing, but if the movie starts falling too much people will claim that's because the audience didn't like it, which is just a theory. Other facts can have an impact in the way a movie is received.

 

[Kathemy]

"I can give you a hundred dollars."
"... is that a lot?"

{Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home}

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I'm guessing exactly 1 million on 4th Monday.

 

[InCali]

I'm glad SS is doing well at the BO. I thought it was a fun movie (although it did seem a little bit uneven at times.....big deal....lots of movies are uneven).

Going in I thought 700M was in the cards and still think it is. Hey, that's a GOOD number. I would expect it to have slightly better legs than CW because it opened lower, but I do think CW was a better made movie (My opinion and not a "fact") so we'll see how things shake out in the end. One think I think SS did was staunch some of the bleeding from BvS (and IMO MoS). Now I hope DC can knock it out of the park with WW and start building some goodwill/trust for what is hopefully a really good JL movie.

I have some real doubts about Aquaman.....hope I'm wrong about that, but the casting doesn't bowl me over.

 

[Legendver2]

So I spoke with a friend in regards to the China release situation, and apparently it has nothing to do with violence or Katana's costume. Apparently China bans movie that involves ghosts and spirits, so this might have more to do with the Enchantress plot than anything else. For reference, Ghostbusters was banned from China for those reasons. If SS2 deals with something more grounded than the supernatural, it might get itself a China release.

 

[InCali]

So I spoke with a friend in regards to the China release situation, and apparently it has nothing to do with violence or Katana's costume. Apparently China bans movie that involves ghosts and spirits, so this might have more to do with the Enchantress plot than anything else. For reference, Ghostbusters was banned from China for those reasons. If SS2 deals with something more grounded than the supernatural, it might get itself a China release.

Oh for frells sake. That's the stupiest frelling thing I've ever heard of. Other than some supporters of a candidate who must not be named, do people REALLY need to be treated like they're frelling idiots? I figured SS wasn't released in China because (mainly) of Harley's portrayal and thought THAT was stupid. Good grief.....

EDIT: God forbid that books by hack writers like Henry James, Charles Dickens, Edgar Allan Poe, William Shakespeare, etc. should be allowed to corrupt society. Such silliness....such leadership.

 

[Erzengel]

I fail to understand how putting Suicide Squad's performance in perpective with the rest of the DCEU films is somehow off topic.

I think it was the 3 DCU movies vs. the 3 MCU movies that he was doing.

Maybe and you can ask C.Lee, if he did direct comparisons between SS and singular movies and didn't make it seem like a DC vs. MCU post.