I don't think Marvel expects IM1 money out of either Thor or Cap. I think Thor is making about what Marvel expected with the first Iron Man, and they prob expect Cap to equal or slightly outperform Thor. I think the box office experts and fans are the ones who want every new comic film to become Iron Man. Plus, given Cap and Thor don't have the budget IM2 or Avengers had, it will be easier to net profit off them.
Now, WB is a bit different. GL had well over 200mil invested into it, so clearly, they felt they had another major comic property. I think GL def gets left out of the sequel race. But, Thor and Cap both appear in the Avengers film. I see them both getting boosts off that, and their sequels will up their BO bankability. The good WOM Thor got, and Cap I think will get, also helps.
They push these films really hard, as if they are expecting a ton of money.
But I highly doubt that Marvel or Fox were looking at their movies as Blockbusters. X-men First Class was not that big a risk financially. Neither was Thor, considering that it probably cost $225 million total make and market ($150 million + 100). You guys all forget that Thor was a success and that Iron Man wasn't at first a household name. I mean, what do you expect studios to do? Not try? Not every movie will be Iron Man, but that doesn't mean that there's a chance another superhero will become popular.
WB however believed that Green Lantern could make Iron Man money. They had shown that by how much money they sunk into the film and by letting it go over budget.
EDIT: And it's not like any of these movies appealed to all audiences enough or had enough recognition to make enough money.
I'm not forgetting that Thor was a success but Thor was pushed heavily, had good reviews, had a couple of stars and had the prime May spot and yet it couldn't reach 200mil, even with those ridiculous 3D tickets prices. Now I never expected it to reach 200mil and I don't think that anybody expected 300mil but it's not out of the realm of possiblity that Marvel expected 200mil. 200mil with 3D ticket prices is like 170milish anyhow, so it's not like thats some over the top number for it to reach. Also the legs probably aren't even going to be as good as the first X-Men's were.
I'm not ignoring the movie's success but it really shouldn't be put up on any huge blockbuster status as the article said.
First Class's problem isn't even it's opening really (but the opening was pretty damn weak for an X-film) but it's legs. With those reviews and that so-called great word of mouth this movie should be heading for atleast 165mil and it isn't. It's numbers have been slightly disappointing, end of story. It's comp hasn't even been that tough so there is no reason this movie should have posted to 50+ percent drops. 165mil total off of that opening is not a wild number.
First Class is so not a blockbuster and it's numbers have been underwhelming even when you take the good but not amazing overseas numbers into account. Like I said before maybe Fox will make a sequel but I see no proof that this is the Batman Begins of this series because Batman Begins had legs. Star Trek had legs too. FC? Not so much.
WB just f**ked up with GL, I think we all know that now and they had to be expecting atleast 250mil from it domestically.
In conclusion, Thor did well but none of the movies have hit that coveted 200mil domestic mark and thus they haven't really broken out.
I could be wrong but I see Captain America breaking out. He's actually an A-lister (almost everyone is aware of the character) and if the movie is as good as the trailers it should break 200mil because the marketing has been damn good. The only thing I think could hurt it is the period peice angle. HP 17 is going to open huge but like all HP movies it's going to drop like a rock. I'm of the mindset that people are overpredicting it's total again like they have done with every HP film. I don't see it hitting these 400mil predictions. If it does, thats crow I'll have to eat but those are my thoughts right now.
