Summer 2011 box office predictions - Part 1

[DACrowe]

Hmm. I just wish that both Cars movies looked interesting to me. I refuse to see either of them on the bases that they look boring and trite.

'Tis true. The only Pixar films I haven't seen at this point are the Cars films and Monsters Inc. They just don't seem interesting to me.

 

[dark_b]

Here's some reality about Green Lantern, for those claiming that it "bombed":

10-day total = Worldwide: $118,711,000
Budget: $200 million

In 10 days, it's made more than half its budget. That's not bad at all. In another month, I'd say it breaks even. No money lost on WB's part. Just no profit.

Granted, I don't know how merchandising and marketing works, but I assume that merchandising is making a decent amount of money too.

So... it's not a bomb, technically.

how cute

 

[jacobed]

Its bomb when worldwide they cant even make the budget back. Im pretty sure they were hoping itd make around 200 million domestically

 

[Bruce Malone]

Here's some reality about Green Lantern, for those claiming that it "bombed":

10-day total = Worldwide: $118,711,000
Budget: $200 million

In 10 days, it's made more than half its budget. That's not bad at all. In another month, I'd say it breaks even. No money lost on WB's part. Just no profit.

Granted, I don't know how merchandising and marketing works, but I assume that merchandising is making a decent amount of money too.

So... it's not a bomb, technically.

You have to include marketing costs which indeed caused WB to plunk down 300 million. It doesn't look like it will even make 300 million ww and even if it did no studio in good conscience sets out to spend 300 million total and countless man-hours just to try to break even.

Any high budget film that doesn't make money is seen as a net loser.

 

[marvelman2006]

Green Lantern is a bomb and terrible, end of story. It is the new fantastic four where the first one stunk and everybody thought when the sequel was announced it would be better and the filmmakers would learn from there mistakes. Boy were we wrong.........

 

[Marvin]

Green Lantern is a bomb and terrible, end of story. It is the new fantastic four where the first one stunk and everybody thought when the sequel was announced it would be better and the filmmakers would learn from there mistakes. Boy were we wrong.........

good point

Xmen and Blade really set the tone for film first, comic book second and it worked for the most part. I remember when whistler sat the doctor down and told her about his family, the direction there was like an expensive indie movie, and then when the third film rolled around you had this super silly team with colourful weapons and hokey fun to be had.

This type of superhero film doesn't seem to ever do well. colourful cgi and corn. The more grounded the more awe inspiring. IM, Batman, Cap..etc
Why GL tried so hard to be fantastic four and it seemed to have failed even at that. I really hope they lose the corn next time cause the colourful cgi will no doubt remain. I sure do hope the design take a book out of tron next time though.

 

[Rocketman]

Explain this then, ladies:

http://www.totalfilm.com/news/green-lantern-2-could-still-be-a-possibility

Green Lantern 2 could still be a possibility
Despite lacklustre reviews and box office
By Josh Winning | Jun 27th 2011

Green Lantern may have suffered from less-than-positive reviews, but Warner Bros are still confident that they can turn the film into a franchise.

The studio hired Michael Goldenberg to write a sequel script way back in August 2010, and it seems they’re keen to continue on with their plans for a Lantern 2.

That comes as a surprise considering Lantern failed to set the box office alight. It opened with a fairly miserable $53m, and has so far only made $89m domestically (something the studio admits is "slightly disappointing").

Still, worldwide ticket sales have now hit $118m, so WB have almost made back the film’s mammoth $200m budget.

If the film proves to have box office staying power (so far it just about has), more money could mean the studio officially gives Lantern 2 the green light pretty soon.

Considering both of the studio’s biggest attractions – Harry Potter and Batman – are both coming to an end, it’s understandable that they’re looking for the next big thing.

Sadly, it’s not clear yet if Lantern’s up to such pressure

Here's something that most comic book geeks don't understand:

1. Just because you didn't like something, doesn't mean it's bad.

2. Just because you didn't like something, doesn't mean other people didn't either.

3. Critics are rarely, if ever, right.

4. People are usually quick to jump on reviews that are in favor of the movie... if they liked it. They're then quick to jump on reviews that are not in favor of the movie if they didn't like it. This is the Bandwagon Effect, which 90% of people on this website love.

5. It's making enough money, apparently. And apparently it's doing pretty well with merchandising.

6. This movie was ****ing awesome, and I want a sequel.

7. Though you might not care about someone else's opinion (like mine, for example), the bigger thing to understand is that someone like me doesn't give a crap about your opinion either. We're both equal in the anonymous world of the Internet. Arguing is silly. Nobody can win.

8. Above all, why wouldn't you support the success of a superhero movie? Isn't that why we're all here, on this site? Weren't we, in a perfect world, supposed to be a community?

 

[Marvin]

I wonder if Air Bender is getting a sequel, does anyone have any news on that front?
Campbell didn't do half as bad as M. Night.

 

[KangConquers]

I can't believe there's such universal ignorance over studio budgets and how much money the studio gets back

How do you think theaters survive? On those buckets of greasy popcorn you buy? Wrong. The theaters take 40-50 cents on each dollar a film makes. For the mathematically challenged, that means WB has made about 65 million on a film they spent 300 million on.

For WB to break even this movie has to gross in the range of 500 million. . Read that, think about it, and read it again. This movie is never going to hit 500 Million...not in theaters, not after dvd and blu-ray. And some of you believe this is getting a sequel?

What will happen to WB when they don't have Nolan's Batman or Harry Potter to fall back on? How stupid would it be for WB to build their future plans around a sequel to a movie that will put them at least 100 million dollars in the hole? They'd go out of business with planning like that!

This "sequel" talk is just an embarrassed studio trying to put a positive spin on one of the biggest black eyes in their history, critically and commercially.

 

[marvelman2006]

Explain this then, ladies:

http://www.totalfilm.com/news/green-lantern-2-could-still-be-a-possibility



Here's something that most comic book geeks don't understand:

Now I love comic book movies but I can proudly say I have never read a comic other then old cartoon shows like spiderman and marvel.com for occasional research on certain heroes or villians.

1. Just because you didn't like something, doesn't mean it's bad.

True, but half the time alot of peeps I talk to have the same views I did, most in person.

2. Just because you didn't like something, doesn't mean other people didn't either.

True, but certain movies everyone can ussually come to a general agreement it was just bad, I.E. Gigli, Elecktra, The hottie and the nottie etc.

3. Critics are rarely, if ever, right.

Agreed, I still cant believe some of the movies that Roger Ebert did or didnt like in his prime as a critic. Now I will admit Im guilty of going by the tomatoe meter every once in a while if a movie is iffy.

4. People are usually quick to jump on reviews that are in favor of the movie... if they liked it. They're then quick to jump on reviews that are not in favor of the movie if they didn't like it. This is the Bandwagon Effect, which 90% of people on this website love.

Thats fair but like on rotten tomatoes it only takes one bad review and bad word of mouth and it spreads like cancer and the movie is doomed even if it really is good. Case in point I live in maryland and lots of my friends said Inception sucked and were telling others not to give it a chance. Now Inception was overall well recieved but you can see how if one person who didnt get the movie hated it, it can just get out of control.

5. It's making enough money, apparently. And apparently it's doing pretty well with merchandising.

No offense but I always hated the merchandising argument, even with star wars. Sure in starwars case toys helped fund the prequels but when we look back do we really remember how many toys were sold for spiderman 3 despite it being garbage?

8. Above all, why wouldn't you support the success of a superhero movie? Isn't that why we're all here, on this site? Weren't we, in a perfect world, supposed to be a community?

Yes I want super hero movies to succeed because there the new action movie genre like it was when Arnold and Stallone were running around but you want quality over quantity. Were getting so many now its becoming saturated and were getting 2nd and 3rd tier heroes now and the quality isnt as good because most studios like fox and WB dont know how to properly bring them to the big screen and in turn we get crap.

 

[Tron Bonne]

Explain this then, ladies:

http://www.totalfilm.com/news/green-lantern-2-could-still-be-a-possibility



Here's something that most comic book geeks don't understand:

1. Just because you didn't like something, doesn't mean it's bad.

2. Just because you didn't like something, doesn't mean other people didn't either.

3. Critics are rarely, if ever, right.

4. People are usually quick to jump on reviews that are in favor of the movie... if they liked it. They're then quick to jump on reviews that are not in favor of the movie if they didn't like it. This is the Bandwagon Effect, which 90% of people on this website love.

5. It's making enough money, apparently. And apparently it's doing pretty well with merchandising.

6. This movie was ****ing awesome, and I want a sequel.

7. Though you might not care about someone else's opinion (like mine, for example), the bigger thing to understand is that someone like me doesn't give a crap about your opinion either. We're both equal in the anonymous world of the Internet. Arguing is silly. Nobody can win.

8. Above all, why wouldn't you support the success of a superhero movie? Isn't that why we're all here, on this site? Weren't we, in a perfect world, supposed to be a community?

Well, for one, did you even read what you posted? WB already had a sequel planned for this well before the movie came out, so trying to say, 'Well, they have a sequel planned already' doesn't really mean anything. Not to mention, the article seems pretty clear that, based on the numbers, it could go either way. So, the article your quoting is basically contradicting what you were saying earlier about the budget.

And, for two, what the hell is up with the list and who are you even talking to? Like really, are you just taking a chance to randomly get up on a soapbox and enlighten everyone about...something? Because I really have no idea what you're referencing or who you're trying to argue with.

And, for the final, it's always a little silly to belittle anyone as 'comic book geeks' when you're posting on board mainly aimed at superheroes. If you somehow think that's not inherently geeky, I'm afraid the kettle needs to look at the mirror before he interacts with the pot any further.

 

[marvelman2006]

I can't believe there's such universal ignorance over studio budgets and how much money the studio gets back

How do you think theaters survive? On those buckets of greasy popcorn you buy? Wrong. The theaters take 40-50 cents on each dollar a film makes. For the mathematically challenged, that means WB has made about 65 million on a film they spent 300 million on.

For WB to break even this movie has to gross in the range of 500 million. . Read that, think about it, and read it again. This movie is never going to hit 500 Million...not in theaters, not after dvd and blu-ray. And some of you believe this is getting a sequel?

What will happen to WB when they don't have Nolan's Batman or Harry Potter to fall back on? How stupid would it be for WB to build their future plans around a sequel to a movie that will put them at least 100 million dollars in the hole? They'd go out of business with planning like that!

This "sequel" talk is just an embarrassed studio trying to put a positive spin on one of the biggest black eyes in their history, critically and commercially.

Agreed but I know from working at a theater, they make next to nothing off the movies themselves hence charging $12 for a soda and popcorn, or $7 for crappy nachos. Theaters make there bucks in the concession area and giftcards and side stuff like now some selling 3D glasses.

Like you said would WB really want to gamble on a sequel considering what the first one is doing? I know I wouldnt. I hate to say it but come 2013 unless WB strikes gold with another franchise Its gonna look scary. Im not up on what WB has rights to but does anyone know what they have coming out in the next 2-4 years?

 

[chaseter]

Explain this then, ladies:

http://www.totalfilm.com/news/green-lantern-2-could-still-be-a-possibility



Here's something that most comic book geeks don't understand:

1. Just because you didn't like something, doesn't mean it's bad.

2. Just because you didn't like something, doesn't mean other people didn't either.

3. Critics are rarely, if ever, right.

4. People are usually quick to jump on reviews that are in favor of the movie... if they liked it. They're then quick to jump on reviews that are not in favor of the movie if they didn't like it. This is the Bandwagon Effect, which 90% of people on this website love.

5. It's making enough money, apparently. And apparently it's doing pretty well with merchandising.

6. This movie was ****ing awesome, and I want a sequel.

7. Though you might not care about someone else's opinion (like mine, for example), the bigger thing to understand is that someone like me doesn't give a crap about your opinion either. We're both equal in the anonymous world of the Internet. Arguing is silly. Nobody can win.

8. Above all, why wouldn't you support the success of a superhero movie? Isn't that why we're all here, on this site? Weren't we, in a perfect world, supposed to be a community?

Explain this then....lady

1. Just because you liked something doesn't mean it's good.

2. Just because you liked something, doesn't mean other people did.

3. Critics if rarely, are ever right if they disagree with you.

4. People that love a terrible movie (Wolverine, Fantastic Four, Blade 3) feel like it is their duty to defend the film from the legions of haters even though the vast majority of critics, fans, and general audience highly disagree with them. This is known as the loyal fanboy effect.

5. The movie cost $400-$500 million dollars with marketing. It will barely make $100 domestic and right now it is limping overseas $30 million. What does that tell you? Yes it will make some good scratch on merchandising but if the viewership isn't there then what is the point in the film?

6. You better go see this movie about 10 million more times then.

7. It's fine to have an opinion and opinions can neither be right nor wrong but that doesn't mean an opinion can't be dumb. I would call someone dumb for wanting a direct sequel to X-Men Origins: Wolverine. I would call someone dumb for loving the bat nipples. You liked Green Lantern, great...but almost everyone else disagrees with you. You don't have to walk around like you are Will Smith in that awful zombie/vampire moving trying to cure the world for their rabid taste for good movies.

8. I don't support the success of terrible movies and neither should you. Supporting mediocrity only enables the studio to continue with mediocrity.


In closing, all of this studio talk about a sequel already just means that they are trying to put a positive spin on an awful situation. If they make a sequel, fine. We can all hope that the sequel is good. If they don't make a sequel and reboot this again in 5-6 years then it's no big loss to humanity.

 

[Tron Bonne]

Now I love comic book movies but I can proudly say I have never read a comic other then old cartoon shows like spiderman and marvel.com for occasional research on certain heroes or villians.

What a weird thing to be proud of.

 

[marvelman2006]

good point

Xmen and Blade really set the tone for film first, comic book second and it worked for the most part. I remember when whistler sat the doctor down and told her about his family, the direction there was like an expensive indie movie, and then when the third film rolled around you had this super silly team with colourful weapons and hokey fun to be had.

This type of superhero film doesn't seem to ever do well. colourful cgi and corn. The more grounded the more awe inspiring. IM, Batman, Cap..etc
Why GL tried so hard to be fantastic four and it seemed to have failed even at that. I really hope they lose the corn next time cause the colourful cgi will no doubt remain. I sure do hope the design take a book out of tron next time though.

I dont understand why studios insist on making these kinds of super hero movies. Blade 3 showed how to successfully not make a blade movie. I had red bells in my head going off the minute A) Parker Posey was cast B) Triple H was cast C) David Goyer was directing D) Blade leading a team of kids with lazer bows.

I guess I just like super hero movies like batman, watchmen, ironman, spiderman where the heroes have to deal with real life problems and have challenges they must deal with while making it personal for the audience to get invested in the story. I never did like when the super heroe is so invincible he just comes off as *****e, because whats the point in trying to kill him?

 

[marvelman2006]

What a weird thing to be proud of.

I know, its weird I respect the comic books themselves and what theyve established but I never liked the notion of some of my friends telling me Im not a spiderman or ironman fan unless I read every comic. I read 2-3 comics my entire life and its just easier for me to watch the movie and read up on the character in a quick bio. Plus in todays society you can just look up a character on youtube and get everything you need to know about them in 5 minutes. Never read a X-men comic and feel like after all this time I know everything about them.

 

[Rocketman]

I got you guys riled up.

 

[Bubonic]

Explain this then....lady

1. Just because you liked something doesn't mean it's good.

2. Just because you liked something, doesn't mean other people did.

3. Critics if rarely, are ever right if they disagree with you.

4. People that love a terrible movie (Wolverine, Fantastic Four, Blade 3) feel like it is their duty to defend the film from the legions of haters even though the vast majority of critics, fans, and general audience highly disagree with them. This is known as the loyal fanboy effect.

5. The movie cost $400-$500 million dollars with marketing. It will barely make $100 domestic and right now it is limping overseas $30 million. What does that tell you? Yes it will make some good scratch on merchandising but if the viewership isn't there then what is the point in the film?

6. You better go see this movie about 10 million more times then.

7. It's fine to have an opinion and opinions can neither be right nor wrong but that doesn't mean an opinion can't be dumb. I would call someone dumb for wanting a direct sequel to X-Men Origins: Wolverine. I would call someone dumb for loving the bat nipples. You liked Green Lantern, great...but almost everyone else disagrees with you. You don't have to walk around like you are Will Smith in that awful zombie/vampire moving trying to cure the world for their rabid taste for good movies.

8. I don't support the success of terrible movies and neither should you. Supporting mediocrity only enables the studio to continue with mediocrity.


In closing, all of this studio talk about a sequel already just means that they are trying to put a positive spin on an awful situation. If they make a sequel, fine. We can all hope that the sequel is good. If they don't make a sequel and reboot this again in 5-6 years then it's no big loss to humanity.

Thank you for your reasoning.

Everytime we get some godawful comic movie we get fans fighting tooth and nail against the grain of reason and general good sense.

I realize people are entitled to their taste and opinions, but taste can be bad and opinions can be wrong!

They swung and they missed, when you're talking about hundreds of millions of dollars you shouldn't have a chance at more than one strike.

WB had it's chance and they failed us.

 

[Marvin]

I can't believe there's such universal ignorance over studio budgets and how much money the studio gets back

How do you think theaters survive? On those buckets of greasy popcorn you buy? Wrong. The theaters take 40-50 cents on each dollar a film makes. For the mathematically challenged, that means WB has made about 65 million on a film they spent 300 million on.

For WB to break even this movie has to gross in the range of 500 million. . Read that, think about it, and read it again. This movie is never going to hit 500 Million...not in theaters, not after dvd and blu-ray. And some of you believe this is getting a sequel?

What will happen to WB when they don't have Nolan's Batman or Harry Potter to fall back on? How stupid would it be for WB to build their future plans around a sequel to a movie that will put them at least 100 million dollars in the hole? They'd go out of business with planning like that!

This "sequel" talk is just an embarrassed studio trying to put a positive spin on one of the biggest black eyes in their history, critically and commercially.

That sounds like you are implying 66.6% multiplier is needed in order to turn a profit.

I'm very curious how films actually break even given GL isn't the only one that had a marketing budget. And I wonder if it helps that paramount splits it's costs/revenue with the likes of say marvel with making/distributing these films.

just curious.

I will say this GL will serve as an exmple on multiple aspects for what not to do in the future.

 

[chaseter]

GL bombing may cause Fox to re-evaluate their Deadpool movie starring Ryan Reynolds.

 

[Thebumwhowalks]

Blade 3 showed how to successfully not make a blade movie. I had red bells in my head going off the minute A) Parker Posey was cast B) Triple H was cast C) David Goyer was directing D) Blade leading a team of kids with lazer bows.

Nowt wrong with Parker Posey, I don't know why that casting should have set off alarm bells in your head.

I know, its weird I respect the comic books themselves and what theyve established but I never liked the notion of some of my friends telling me Im not a spiderman or ironman fan unless I read every comic. I read 2-3 comics my entire life and its just easier for me to watch the movie and read up on the character in a quick bio. Plus in todays society you can just look up a character on youtube and get everything you need to know about them in 5 minutes. Never read a X-men comic and feel like after all this time I know everything about them.

Well, I don't know man, I would say it was less expensive to watch the movies, as it's pretty easy to pick up and read comics.
If you like the sh movies so much, you are really missing out on the best the characters have to offer if you just watch the film adaptations and look up some story synopsis on wiki or whatever.
Even the best of the superhero movies are not as good as the best comics, TDK is not as good as Batman Year One or The Dark Knight Returns, and I have got much more enjoyment out of stories in the Wolverine and X-Men comics than the better movies in that series.
Once you are sat down and getting into a good comic book, it's pretty much just like watching a movie, except with the comics, they are only limited by their imagination, so have more scope for stories. Go out and buy some comics you madman.

 

[Bubonic]

I got you guys riled up.

 

[Thebumwhowalks]

GL bombing may cause Fox to re-evaluate their Deadpool movie starring Ryan Reynolds.

It's bombing relative to it's budget, so they might still greenlight a Deadpool movie with a budget of 80-100million.

 

[Doctor Jones]

I see no signs of bandwagoning on this site for GL's reception. GL sucked, and most people agreed. Those are our opinions. Those who liked it, that's fine. We both disagree with the other, but that doesn't mean either of us are right and that we need automatically brand eachother as "bandwagoning haters" if we didn't like it or "stupid" if we did like it.

We're looking at cold realstic facts here people. Sorry if you did like it and are hoping for a sequel, but it's hard to given this movie's recepetion. But hey, you can still at least like the movie if this doesn't end up getting a sequel. I don't give a damn at this point.

 

[Doctor Jones]

GL bombing may cause Fox to re-evaluate their Deadpool movie starring Ryan Reynolds.

As in hopefully it becomes more of a possibility to being made?

If not, I hope studios aren't looking at Reynolds. People still love him and he isn't to blame for this film. Deadpool could go either way with the GA though.