To steal from Anne Hathaway: It came true. After speculating for the last week about whether Mikey Madison could ride the wave of support for Anora to an upset Best Actress win over presumed frontrunner Demi Moore at the BAFTA Awards, Madison indeed pulled off the victory. The win is significant: It’s not only the first time Madison has defeated Moore during a televised awards ceremony this season but also the first time the industry has weighed in on the Best Actress race. Previously, Moore won non-industry honors from the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Awards. The Substance star remains the category favorite for now — and some will likely argue that her status as a Hollywood veteran will keep her out in front at the Oscars since Madison is a relative newcomer. However, in recent years, the BAFTA Awards have an impressive track record of signaling when the “narrative” favorite — like Lily Gladstone, Chadwick Boseman, and Glenn Close — lacks genuine support. It’s possible that, in hindsight, we’ll view Madison’s win as a red herring. She could be Austin Butler, who won for Elvis, to Moore’s Brendan Fraser, the eventual Oscar winner for The Whale (and Moore, like Fraser did, might win at the Screen Actors Guild Awards next weekend, reshaping the Best Actress race one last time before the Oscars). However, with the industry’s strong support for Anora, Madison might follow in the footsteps of Frances McDormand, who was underestimated in the 2021 Best Actress field but won while leading the Best Picture-winning Nomadland.
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