The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread

[JB-the-Hunter]

It all depends of the total reviews.

Toy Story 3 has 99%, with 250 fresh and 3 rotten
The Dark Knight has 94%, with 265 fresh and 18 rotten
Moneyball has 94%, with 205 fresh and 12 rotten.

My guess is over 200 fresh reviews, the movie should be around 90%.

Iron Man has 94% with 222 fresh and 15 rotten

 

[PowerPacked]

Considering Cabin in the Woods currently has a 93% on RT a whole month before release, and Serenity an 82%, Whedon's track record is pretty good.

 

[jmc]

To be fair, the recent superhero movies themselves have all been smaller movies than earlier superhero flicks. They had smaller spectacles than Transformers or Pirates, so of course they did less business overseas - I'd say on average between $200m-$300m. I mean, with the exception of IM2 and the epic failure that is GL, they've all had smaller budgets than, say, the Spidey sequels or TDK. They've been essentially mini-blockbusters. Smaller movies tend to do smaller business.

The Avengers is not a smaller movie. It's the first superhero movie SINCE the Pirates and Transformers franchises took the international box office by storm that actually has the budget/spectacle on par with theirs. That said, I don't expect the Avengers to do quite as well internationally as those behemoths, because that kind of success is a rarity caused by a number of "lightning-in-a-bottle" type of factors, but I'm confident it will easily make more overseas than any superhero movie since TDK.


...until TDKR comes out.

I'm still curious to know the answer.

 

[flickchick85]

I'm still curious to know the answer.

Oh wow, I was thinking you knew and that was simply a rhetorical question designed to make your point! Sorry 'bout that...here are the overseas numbers for the "big" ones from the last 3 years:


X-Men Origins: Wolverine - $193.1m
Iron Man 2 - $311.5m
Thor - $268.3m
X-Men: First Class - $207.2m
Green Lantern - $103m
Captain America - $192m

 

[BigThor]

I think it's because that in a lot of countries outside of the US you don't have a choise but to see a movie in 3D, so that's why.

And anyhow, it's still not a lot, so my point, that superhero movies are not very big outside of the US still remain... Those movies were just not very big in the US, too.

Dude, you're being unreasonable you can't seriously expect the first Thor and Captain America movies to pull in Harry Potter numbers overseas.

 

[jmc]

Oh wow, I was thinking you knew and that was simply a rhetorical question designed to make your point! Sorry 'bout that...here are the overseas numbers for the "big" ones from the last 3 years:


X-Men Origins: Wolverine - $193.1m
Iron Man 2 - $311.5m
Thor - $268.3m
X-Men: First Class - $207.2m
Green Lantern - $103m
Captain America - $192m

I was refering to specific areas of growth actually.

 

[flickchick85]

I was refering to specific areas of growth actually.

Oh, haha, you were asking something I know absolutely nothing about. My bad.

 

[metaphysician]

I would be shocked if Avengers scored that high. The very fact that its a big budget super hero film is going to mean a large chunk of reviewers will pan it on principle.

 

[flickchick85]

I would be shocked if Avengers scored that high. The very fact that its a big budget super hero film is going to mean a large chunk of reviewers will pan it on principle.

Tell that to Iron Man and TDK.

You do have a point, though. A.O. Scott of The New York Times will almost certainly pan it on principle. He's pretty much already declared it so in his other Marvel Studios reviews. There will likely at least be a few others who think like him.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

I would be shocked if Avengers scored that high. The very fact that its a big budget super hero film is going to mean a large chunk of reviewers will pan it on principle.

Other than Armond White I think reviewers know a truly good film when they see one. If the Avengers is better than Iron Man as they say I doubt it gets much worse reviews than that.

 

[Chewy]

I was refering to specific areas of growth actually.

It's hard to answer that specifically, as Boxofficemojo no longer tracks some countries like China and the BOM forums no longer exist to find specific country breakdowns per film

But as a for instance, here's some Russian #s:

Iron Man 1 (2008): $9,386,135
Iron Man 2 (2010): $14,762,084

Transformers 1 (2007): $15,138,081
Transformers 2 (2009): $18,170,854
Transformers 3 (2011): $45,129,718

Spider-Man 1 (2002): $3,529,289
Spider-Man 2 (2004): $8,950,760
Spider-Man 3 (2007): $13,884,488

X-Men (2000): $1,124,819
X-Men 2 (2003): $3,650,616
X-Men 3 (2006): $6,071,371
Wolverine (2009: $7,644,722
X-Men First Class (2011): $9,383,290

The Dark Knight (2008): $8,589,052
Green Lantern (2011): $4,863,834
Captain America (2011): $8,638,710
Thor (2011): $16,543,455

Keep in mind none of these last 4 is a big scale 3D action adventure, like your Transformers or Pirates or Spidey. Which is what is really huge overseas. As a point of reference John Carter, which is bombing basically everywhere else, just opened in Russia with 17M

 

[Mysteryman]

Lets say Joss does a sequel featuring Ultron,
Will the argument be that the public is dying to see Superheroes take on Killer Robots?

 

[Liam_H]

Other than Armond White I think reviewers know a truly good film when they see one. If the Avengers is better than Iron Man as they say I doubt it gets much worse reviews than that.

If either Iron Man or The Dark Knight was reviewed today as a newly opened movie, I'm pretty sure it won't score as high as they initially did.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

Lets say Joss does a sequel featuring Ultron,
Will the argument be that the public is dying to see Superheroes take on Killer Robots?

No, it'll be that they liked the movie that came before it. Isn't that the reason the public is dying to see TDKR? Because it sure as hell has nothing to do with Bane.

If either Iron Man or The Dark Knight was reviewed today as a newly opened movie, I'm pretty sure it won't score as high as they initially did.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/mission_impossible_ghost_protocol/
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/x_men_first_class/

 

[Mysteryman]

I was only responding to this idea the GA is dying to see Superheroes take on aliens.
Personally I just want to see The Avengers VS Loki .
I would be dissapointed if all of the movies were about cosmic threats .

 

[Chewy]

I was only responding to this idea the GA is dying to see Superheroes take on aliens.

Who presented that idea?

People were saying the public would be interested in seeing these particular superheroes take on an army of aliens

No one said anything about "dying to see"

 

[Quasimod0]

No, it'll be that they liked the movie that came before it. Isn't that the reason the public is dying to see TDKR? Because it sure as hell has nothing to do with Bane.

 

[BigThor]

If either Iron Man or The Dark Knight was reviewed today as a newly opened movie, I'm pretty sure it won't score as high as they initially did.

I was thinking the same thing, I see both of them scoring in the upper 80s if they were released within the last year or so.

I might be wrong since I'm not expert or anything, that's just my opinion though.

 

[jmc]

It's hard to answer that specifically, as Boxofficemojo no longer tracks some countries like China and the BOM forums no longer exist to find specific country breakdowns per film

But as a for instance, here's some Russian #s:

Iron Man 1 (2008): $9,386,135
Iron Man 2 (2010): $14,762,084

Transformers 1 (2007): $15,138,081
Transformers 2 (2009): $18,170,854
Transformers 3 (2011): $45,129,718

Spider-Man 1 (2002): $3,529,289
Spider-Man 2 (2004): $8,950,760
Spider-Man 3 (2007): $13,884,488

X-Men (2000): $1,124,819
X-Men 2 (2003): $3,650,616
X-Men 3 (2006): $6,071,371
Wolverine (2009: $7,644,722
X-Men First Class (2011): $9,383,290

The Dark Knight (2008): $8,589,052
Green Lantern (2011): $4,863,834
Captain America (2011): $8,638,710
Thor (2011): $16,543,455

Keep in mind none of these last 4 is a big scale 3D action adventure, like your Transformers or Pirates or Spidey. Which is what is really huge overseas. As a point of reference John Carter, which is bombing basically everywhere else, just opened in Russia with 17M

I dunno man, those superhero numbers over the last few years look fairly consistent for the most part, TF3 looks more like an anomaly than anything else. You could make the argument that it's a bigger movie but if the 3D and foreign cinema explosion was as bigger a deal as you believe it to be I'd tend to think the numbers would have been much higher over the last two years worth of superhero films regardless of their scale, especially for IM2, GL and Cap.

 

[flickchick85]

I dunno man, those superhero numbers over the last few years look fairly consistent for the most part, TF3 looks more like an anomaly than anything else. You could make the argument that it's a bigger movie but if the 3D and foreign cinema explosion was as bigger a deal as you believe it to be I'd tend to think the numbers would have been much higher over the last two years superhero films regardless of their scale, especially for IM2, GL and Cap.

I think it's all relative, though. I mean, GL was a colossal failure all over so I don't even include it in the discussion. IM2, when you're dealing with such small numbers to begin with, DID make a pretty massive leap over the first, imo. And little ol' Captain America made more than the mega-goliath that was TDK. That does look like a major boost in recent years to me.

 

[jmc]

I think it's all relative, though. I mean, GL was a colossal failure all over so I don't even include it in the discussion. IM2, when you're dealing with such small numbers to begin with, DID make a pretty massive leap over the first, imo. And little ol' Captain America made more than the mega-goliath that was TDK. That does look like a major boost in recent years to me.

My point was more that there isn't any signs from those numbers which indicates a Transformers 3 style leap is paramount. It could, but TF3 looks much more like an exception. But whatever happens happens.

 

[flickchick85]

My point was more that there isn't any signs from those numbers which indicates a Transformers 3 style leap is paramount. It could, but TF3 looks much more like an exception. But whatever happens happens.

Oh, I see now. Yeah, I guess I kind of agree on that. I do expect a leap, but not that big a leap.

 

[Chewy]

I dunno man, those superhero numbers over the last few years look fairly consistent for the most part, TF3 looks more like an anomaly than anything else. You could make the argument that it's a bigger movie but if the 3D and foreign cinema explosion was as bigger a deal as you believe it to be I'd tend to think the numbers would have been much higher over the last two years worth of superhero films regardless of their scale, especially for IM2, GL and Cap.

IM2 wasn't in 3D.

The IM -> IM2 jump is similar to the TF -> TF2 jump

TF3 doesn't really look like an anomaly once you start throwing in other big franchises that added 3D, like HP and Pirates

 

[Chewy]

Here's the Russian Pirates #s for you
Curse of the Black Pearl (2003): $9,060,000
Dead Man's Chest (2006): $27,520,000 (Was the biggest hit ever at the time)
At World's End (2007): $30,850,884
On Stranger Tides (2011, 3D): $63,661,754

Here's the Russian HP #s for you
Order of the Phoenix (2007): $16,326,219
Half Blood Prince (2009): $18,687,856
Deathly Hallows P1 (2010): $26,306,807
Deathly Hallows P2 (2011, 3D): $36,817,713

 

[jmc]

IM2 wasn't in 3D.

The IM -> IM2 jump is similar to the TF -> TF2 jump

TF3 doesn't really look like an anomaly once you start throwing in other big franchises that added 3D, like HP and Pirates

Edit: Question answered.