The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread

[Mysteryman]

Oh when it comes out it won't stop. There will be analysis from all sorts of arm chair experts. Ya feel?

If it makes a billion you'll have a bunch of "I told ya so's!" as well as negative nancies saying it wouldn't make a billion if it wasn't in 3D, or had competition and a whole host of other excuses.

If it doesn't make 600 million you'll have a bunch of apologists saying that 600 million is still ok. And you'd have a bunch of fanatical Nolanites going "hahahahaha!".

Yes, The post OW discussion wont be boring , thats for sure

 

[Xeno]

Interviews where both Tom Hiddleston and Lou F. have been noted to say that the budget for the film was 300 million, and I doubt that they were talking about the marketing's budget for the film.

The actors can't be trusted to know the actual budget for a film. Studios tend not to share those figures freely, so they probably only heard rumors about the numbers. I'll wait until something solid appears from one of the trades.

 

[Mysteryman]

And I should also add to that the MONTHS to follow.

 

[bonzob2000]

Not saying it didn't cost 300 mil, though that seems VERY high for stingy Marvel. But I'm always amazed by how informed people think actors are. Most actors will have less insight into how much a movie cost than any well-informed fan. Do you think someone took Hiddleston aside and showed him the accounting books?

I would take any comments from actors on the budget as second or third hand information... likely just people tossing around large numbers on set -- "Isn't this crazy? We're on a three hundred million dollar movie!" That kind of thing. Plus, actors want movies they work on to sound as big and expensive as possible, so there's a natural tendency to exaggerate, whereas producers will usually lowball to show how cost efficient they are. The truth usually lies somewhere in between.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

QFT.


Even if The Avengers sails past the billion-dollar mark, some of the naysayers will come back to ask why it didn't make more. Even if they were sure it wouldn't make a billion is the first place.

A billion dollars usually silences the haters unless you get in a pissing contest with the fans of a movie that makes even more money like the Great Transformer/Potter War of 2011.

 

[metaphysician]

Something I find annoying is people saying "The rest of the franchises don't matter, the same people go to see them all."

Yes, there is certainly a lot of overlap. But the arguments assumes that *every* person who saw Captain America, Thor, and TIH, also went to see Iron Man 1 and 2. If even a tenth of the people who saw each hadn't seen Iron Man, that adds up to a pretty sizable chunk of new potential viewers.

Combine that with "sequel increase" to three franchises, growing international market, and the 3D bump, and I predict 800M worldwide gross, minimum. It has a *chance* to break 1B, but that depends on a lot of unpredictable factors. To make 800M, all it really needs is a small percentage of audience crossover from the non-Iron Man films, 3D, and WW market growth.

 

[jacobed]

The thing that I have found out with these Marvel movies is that a lot of people mostly women have discovered them through dvd rentals. I know many many people who could have cared less about Thor or Captain America until they watched it on dvd then they were pretty excited to see where these characters go next. The problem with that is one reason why women loved those movies is the fantastic love stories between the main characters which The Avengers will obviously have none of it.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

If it sucks BUT has great special effects it'll get 500M+

If it's mediocre BUT has great special effects it'll get 600M+

If it's as good as Iron Man 2 it's going to get 800M+

If it's better than Iron Man 2 it'll get 900M+

It's is better than Iron Man it'll get 1B+

If it's just a flat out mindblowing movie it'll get 1.1B+

If it's just a flat out mindblowing movie AND the movies in the coming weeks/months suck it'll get 1.2B+

If it's just a flat out mindblowing movie WITH good 3D AND the movies in the coming weeks/months suck it'll get 1.3B+

If it's just a flat out mindblowing movie WITH mindblowing 3D AND the movies in the coming weeks/months suck it'll get 1.5B+

 

[alexlachiusa]

Turns out the day after the midnight screening is a public holiday. No calling in sick to work for me!

 

[BigThor]

QFT.


Even if The Avengers sails past the billion-dollar mark, some of the naysayers will come back to ask why it didn't make more. Even if they were sure it wouldn't make a billion is the first place.

QFT x2

 

[Xeno]

The thing that I have found out with these Marvel movies is that a lot of people mostly women have discovered them through dvd rentals. I know many many people who could have cared less about Thor or Captain America until they watched it on dvd then they were pretty excited to see where these characters go next. The problem with that is one reason why women loved those movies is the fantastic love stories between the main characters which The Avengers will obviously have none of it.

Substitute "the women you know personally" for women. Quite a few of us are comic book geeks who love the stories, period, and have since childhood. Others came to the genre later but enjoy the action and scifi aspects as much or more than the romantic ones.

 

[flickchick85]

Turns out the day after the midnight screening is a public holiday. No calling in sick to work for me!

Heh, it's no holiday for me, but I've already put in to have that day off. So of course, after the midnight screening with friends and the crazy crowd, I'll probably see it again during the day on Friday by myself to really take it all in. t:

 

[metaphysician]

If it sucks BUT has great special effects it'll get 500M+

If it's mediocre BUT has great special effects it'll get 600M+

If it's as good as Iron Man 2 it's going to get 800M+

If it's better than Iron Man 2 it'll get 900M+

It's is better than Iron Man it'll get 1B+

If it's just a flat out mindblowing movie it'll get 1.1B+

If it's just a flat out mindblowing movie AND the movies in the coming weeks/months suck it'll get 1.2B+

If it's just a flat out mindblowing movie WITH good 3D AND the movies in the coming weeks/months suck it'll get 1.3B+

If it's just a flat out mindblowing movie WITH mindblowing 3D AND the movies in the coming weeks/months suck it'll get 1.5B+

I think your a little generous on the top end, but largely, I agree. You pretty much cover all the relevant variables.

 

[Xeno]

I think your a little generous on the top end, but largely, I agree. You pretty much cover all the relevant variables.

I don't want to speak for JB, but I think he was covering all the opinions put forward in this thread, other than those convinced it won't make much based on their own prejudices and misconceptions.

 

[warhorse78]

I agree with both of you, this is why I can't wait until The Avengers is released because some people just won't listen to reason they have to see to believe.

It won't matter, if The Avengers does happen to have an out of this world BO run, then the naysayers will just say that Disney fudged the numbers.

 

[Mysteryman]

I know it is a limited number of States, But do we hav e an idea of how The advanced ticket sales are going for the midnight shows?
Anybody buy theirs already?

 

[warhorse78]

Substitute "the women you know personally" for women. Quite a few of us are comic book geeks who love the stories, period, and have since childhood. Others came to the genre later but enjoy the action and scifi aspects as much or more than the romantic ones.

Ditto. In fact, I hate romance movies, and everytime there is a romance in movies of this nature, I can just role my eyes at it. But, the romance done in Ironman and Captain America wasn't so bad, maybe because the chick was actually needed.

Really, all raise your hands if you thought Transformers franchise could have been better without a stupid love story in the middle of it.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

It won't matter, if The Avengers does happen to have an out of this world BO run, then the naysayers will just say that Disney fudged the numbers.

Man, talk about paranoia.

 

[warhorse78]

I know it is a limited number of States, But do we hav e an idea of how The advanced ticket sales are going for the midnight shows?
Anybody buy theirs already?

Well, the help desk in the theater near me is of no help. Just a bunch of stupid ***** that are too busy chewing their gum and filing their nails to help me with finding out about advanced ticket sales. I asked this past Sunday about Titanic. Dumb girl didn't even know it was coming out less than a month.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

Ditto. In fact, I hate romance movies, and everytime there is a romance in movies of this nature, I can just role my eyes at it. But, the romance done in Ironman and Captain America wasn't so bad, maybe because the chick was actually needed.

Really, all raise your hands if you thought Transformers franchise could have been better without a stupid love story in the middle of it.

The funny thing is, I'm a straight dude and I find my self liking romance movies... and even romance in general. The only thing I like about Pirates 4 was the love story between Phillip and Syrena.

 

[warhorse78]

Man, talk about paranoia.

Hey, I saw it happen with Transformers. People hated those movies so much, they just couldn't believe other people would go see those movies in mass droves, so they had to make up contrived BS like fudging numbers.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Hey, I saw it happen with Transformers. People hated those movies so much, they just couldn't believe other people would go see those movies in mass droves, so they had to make up contrived BS like fudging numbers.

Yeah but no one considered those people anything but moronic deluded twits. They are irrelevant so who cares? The easiest thing to do on the internet is to sniff out trolls (and they were it).

And for the record I think $800 million WW is the absolute MINIMUM the Avengers will make, good bad or indifferent.

 

[PowerPacked]

I just realized that Battleship is even less of a threat than we thought.

You know how it's released April 11th in the UK and other parts of the world?

GUESS WHICH FILM IS RELEASED JUST BEFORE THEN?

For once, I'm happy Cameron is a hypocritical slimy bastard.

And Titanic should also be out of theaters before Avengers debuts.

 

[Herolee10]

lol; to be honest, I never thought of Battleship to be a threat to the Avengers box office earnings to begin with.haha

 

[warhorse78]

I just realized that Battleship is no longer a real threat.

You know how it's released April 11th in the UK and other parts of the world?

GUESS WHICH FILM IS RELEASED JUST BEFORE THEN?

For once, I'm happy Cameron is a hypocritical slimy bastard.

And Titanic should also be out of theaters before Avengers debuts.

I'm curious to how Titanic will do. I saw trailers for it over the weekend in 3D IMAX, and well, the 3D was underwhelming for me, I'd just rather would see it in the 2D version if it's available. Either way, I don't think Battleship will be a factor.