The Black Panther Box Office Speculation Thread - Part 3

[Fallen]

Black Panther out grossed all Spider-Man movies overseas. It's overseas gross is huge.

!!!!

Black Panther's overseas gross beats all superhero films except the 2 Avengers films, Civil War, Iron Man 3 and The Dark Knight Rises.

 

[iEquinox]

!!!!

Black Panther's overseas gross beats all superhero films except the 2 Avengers films, Civil War, Iron Man 3 and The Dark Knight Rises.

It's already a few million ahead of The Dark Knight Rises OS.

 

[Fallen]

*Black Panther's overseas gross beats all superhero films except Avengers 1, Avengers 2, Avengers 2.5 (Civil War) and Iron Man 3.

 

[Iceman]

indeed, in general the market for these movies is bigger. those were huge back then too. adjusted for inflation the overseas gross of the Spider-Man films:

- Spider-Man: $579,844,997
- Spider-Man 2: $541,885,593
- Spider-Man 3: $667,197,647

The overseas expansion during these years would mean certain markets have much more capacity than they had back then so inflation wouldn’t really cover it IMO. But nice to see those figures all the same.

Edit: sorry, I realise you already mentioned that lol.

 

[kedrell]

Only $17.5M left until TLJ falls. It'll make at least that much left from DOM alone...even w/o IW helping it. TLJ is toast for sure. High likelihood that HP8 is as well.

 

[Chance Jackson]

Nice, me and 3 of my Coworkers are watching it on Thursday I wonder how many people will be in that showing

 

[KevTravels]

http://ewn.co.za/2018/04/16/black-panther-makes-history-as-first-movie-to-gross-r100m

Way to go South Africa

 

[Silver Surfer]

Only $17.5M left until TLJ falls. It'll make at least that much left from DOM alone...even w/o IW helping it. TLJ is toast for sure. High likelihood that HP8 is as well.

TLJ will also then be kicked out of the top 10 all time by IW.

 

[KevTravels]

TLJ will also then be kicked out of the top 10 all time by IW.

As well as A4 and probably the next Star Wars film.

Disney keeps cannibalizing itself

 

[Gladius Nova]

As well as A4 and probably the next Star Wars film.

Disney keeps cannibalizing itself

As well as the BP sequel...t:

 

[rayc1971]

imo Black Panther will stop at $690-$694M domestic.

so close to 700mill domestic maybe infinity war can give it a boost alot of people might want to watch it again right before infinity war

 

[Donald Thomas]

so close to 700mill domestic maybe infinity war can give it a boost alot of people might want to watch it again right before infinity war

Aloha,
The DVD for Black Panther is coming out mid May, so unless they bring it back to theaters, we are looking at some of the last weeks to check it out in theaters. DVD should also break records.

Long Live the King of Wakanda

 

[Donald Thomas]

Black Panther out grossed all Spider-Man movies overseas. It's overseas gross is huge.

Aloha,
I always said that I could live with that only because Spidey has established his records.Records were made to be broken.

Spidey rules
Long Live the King of Wakanda

 

[BoxWatcher]

BP will pass $680M by next Sunday. Then I predict the Infinity War effect will mean another big week/weekend next week... in the $15M range, so by the end of this month the total will be around $695 and the film will ultimately push close to $710M before the DVD gets released.

 

[iEquinox]

BP will pass $680M by next Sunday. Then I predict the Infinity War effect will mean another big week/weekend next week... in the $15M range, so by the end of this month the total will be around $695 and the film will ultimately push close to $710M before the DVD gets released.

Even with a boost from IW, that just seems like it's way too much.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Yeah i think 700m dom is still a long shot.

 

[KevTravels]

Yeah i think 700m dom is still a long shot.

Looks like it may come up short. Like $692 or so. I kinda really wanna see it hit 700 domestically, but more so; I want it to beat The Last Jedi. That's most pertinent to me.

 

[Gladius Nova]

Looks like it may come up short. Like $692 or so. I kinda really wanna see it hit 700 domestically, but more so; I want it to beat The Last Jedi. That's most pertinent to me.

Me too. It will probably “barely” beat TLJ, but will be yet another awesome milestone. Major bragging rights for Coogler as well as the cast.

 

[KevTravels]

Me too. It will probably “barely” beat TLJ, but will be yet another awesome milestone. Major bragging rights for Coogler as well as the cast.

Totally. That dude has to be so proud of what he pulled off.

 

[kedrell]

If it has the same drop this week as the week that just ended had then it should be at $682M by the time IW arrives. It'll be well under $10M behind TLJ at that point. HP8 is only $8.8M further to go passed that.

 

[Fallen]

9 Star Wars: The Last Jedi $1,332.7
10 Black Panther $1,316.8

The Last Jedi has ended its domestic theatrical run.

 

[iEquinox]

On track for a great hold this weekend. The Friday estimate is $1,227,000, which is a drop of just 15.3% from last Friday.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?view=1day&sortdate=2018-04-20&p=.htm&track=marvel2017b.htm

Will be interesting to see how IW affects things next weekend.

 

[MaddScience]

^ looks like people were really underestimating Super Troopers 2. I saw many projections for $7 weekend and it's done that on friday alone.

 

[KevTravels]

So, it just might pass the Last Jedi? *crosses fingers*

 

[iEquinox]

So, it just might pass the Last Jedi? *crosses fingers*

Yeah at this point that seems very likely. Should at least get close with the remaining domestic numbers(domestic alone may even be enough), and it still has a few million left in the tank OS as well(definitely not as much as domestically though).

How far it goes depends a lot on next weekend. On one hand, BP should lose quite a lot of screens to IW. It's barely in the top 10 now, and theaters will need to give a lot of screens to IW to meet the huge demand, so that'll make it harder to have a good hold. On the other hand the whole connection between BP and IW is kind of a unique situation, with a character's own movie still playing while he's in this huge new opener. That could give BP a boost, or at least counteract the effect of the screen losses a bit to keep the drop on the lower side. If there were double features for IW+BP next weekend, that would have given it a nice boost too, but I haven't seen anything on those yet, so I'm not counting on them.

It's really a new scenario, so we'll just have to wait and see how it plays out. There isn't really a good precedent we can look at for this situation.