Homecoming The Box Office Thread - Part 1

[Iceman]

It's true. I've seen hardly any Apes marketing outside of the internet.

 

[Faith_Cassidy]

Mendelson is wrong and his insistence on being wrong just makes me want SMH to cross 300M even more.

 

[Spider-Ock]

TASM's adjusted number is 297 million and SM:H will top that and will go north of 300 million. TASM3 would have been in the negative without huge OS gross bailing them out. Sony made a smart decision to make a deal with Marvel Studios.

TASM3 definitely wouldn't have made it past 150-200 mill domestic. At least with Marvel you know you are going to make profits. I am still not sure about that 300 mil number though. Let's say it does 23-30 mil this weekend and then stabilizes to 13-18 the next and about 20-30 mil overall after that. That's what: 260-270 mil right? And the rest of the weekday cash....ahh, yeah, it can definitely go past 300 mil.

Mendelson is wrong and his insistence on being wrong just makes me want SMH to cross 300M even more.

He makes some fascinating points about the IP, but I don't think he's right about the final domestic tally he's projecting.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

TASM3 definitely wouldn't have made it past 150-200 mill domestic. At least with Marvel you know you are going to make profits. I am still not sure about that 300 mil number though. Let's say it does 23-30 mil this weekend and then stabilizes to 13-18 the next and about 20-30 mil overall after that. That's what: 260-270 mil right? And the rest of the weekday cash....ahh, yeah, it can definitely go past 300 mil.

It's at 207 million right nao. If it merely behaves a little better than MOS, it'll reach 300 million. July and August weekdays will be better and SM:H will have a far smoother 2nd month in August. MOS faced much tougher competition & bled theaters like crazy. Everything looks good for SM:H to go over 300 million.

 

[StormC]

Did Man Of Steel really face tougher competition than two of the best reviewed movies of the year coming right after it?

 

[spiderman2]

It's at 207 million right nao. If it merely behaves a little better than MOS, it'll reach 300 million. July and August weekdays will be better and SM:H will have a far smoother 2nd month in August. MOS faced much tougher competition & bled theaters like crazy. Everything looks good for SM:H to go over 300 million.

Yeah I don't see how it doesn't do 300. Like I said after 2 weekends compared to amazing Spider-Man if it were to do the same 83m more after weekend 2 it would be at 291 and considering amazing Spider-Man had 2 more days after 2 weekends with it coming out on a Friday another 9 million should be nothing and considering this movie has better reviews then amazing Spider-Man I would think it would take longer to fall off. I think 310 is like the minimum for this movie.

Just looking again and check this out it took 15 days for amazing Spider-Man to reach 210m as it was at 210293031 after day 15. Yesterday was only day 11 for HC and we know it is going to be at 210+ once we get yesterdays numbers has it was only around 2.7 million short of that going into yesterday. So 4 days faster and should even be like a million or 2 above amazing Spider-Man 15 day amount. Day 15 for HC will be Friday.

 

[spiderman2]

Did Man Of Steel really face tougher competition than two of the best reviewed movies of the year coming right after it?

Oh wows was just checking out movies and war war z did came out the week after a movie that made 540m and also Monster university came out the same week that war war z came out and it would make around 744m. So to movies that made 500m + came out the week after man of steel. Also 3 weeks later Despicable me 2 came out and it would go on to make 970m. So 3 movies came out with in 3 weeks of man of steel that would make 500+ WW and 2 that would make 700+. So yeah that is so competition.

 

[StormC]

Let's not kid ourselves and say Man Of Steel's drops weren't in large part because of how the audience received it.

 

[spiderman2]

Let's not kid ourselves and say Man Of Steel's drops weren't in large part because of how the audience received it.

While it may have been a compo of that. At the same time I think people over all liked it more then you would think for a movie with a 56 RT score. Its RT score is similer to amazing Spider-Man 2 but I hear a lot more hate towards amazing Spider-Man 2 then man of steel.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Did Man Of Steel really face tougher competition than two of the best reviewed movies of the year coming right after it?

SpiderMan2 already answered it. In it's 2nd weekend MOS faced 2 50 million + openers and combined they grossed north of 148 million. That's huge. In 3rd weekend it faced The Heat, which opened with 40 million and did around 180 million in the end. In 4th weekend MOS faced DM2 and Lone Ranger. DM2 was among the top 5 in 2013. Then it faced Pacific Rim and Grown Ups 2 and The Conjuring & the list goes on.

SM:H faced WOTPOTA and War under-performed heavily. Next weekend is truly stacked against SM:H. Really tough competition. But after that SM:H has nothing to worry about. Atomic Blonde won't do very well. Emoji movie can surprise but I'm not thinking very high. Dark Tower is a bomb in the making. Annabelle Creation and Hitman's Bodygurad can make bank but won't hurt SM:H that much. Seriously, August and early September looks really good for SM:H to hold it's own.

 

[StormC]

I think Emoji Movie is going to be a dark horse hit.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Let's not kid ourselves and say Man Of Steel's drops weren't in large part because of how the audience received it.

I think the audience reaction was mixed at best with more folks in the 'I liked it' camp. It received an 'A-' CinemaScore.

 

[Ozbridge]

If that's true then it's good news since Emoji will do double feature with SMP.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I think Emoji Movie is going to be a dark horse hit.

Yeah, it's certainly possible. It can be the Sausage Party of 2017 and break out in a very unappealing August.

 

[iEquinox]

$5,455,599 Monday, 58.0% drop from Sunday and 55.3% drop from last Monday.
That makes $6.73M the number to beat tomorrow to get a lower week on week drop for Tuesday.

Domestic total up to $212,731,123 after day 11.

http://www.the-numbers.com/daily-box-office-chart

 

[spiderman2]

$5,455,599 Monday, 58.0% drop from Sunday and 55.3% drop from last Monday.
That makes $6.73M the number to beat tomorrow to get a lower week on week drop for Tuesday.

Domestic total up to $212,731,123 after day 11.

http://www.the-numbers.com/daily-box-office-chart

is that good? I see that WW did about eight hunderend thousand more on its second Tuesday but I now wonder women has had crazy legs.

 

[Tony Stark]

I think some of you are over-estimating Apes' effect on SM:H's BO. Apes did have an effect and to a small extent, GoT did as well (on Sunday). Still it's not really significant.

I mean WOTPOTA under-performed, it came in lower than Rise's BO (adjusted) and that too without 3D. If anything, SM:H could have benefited being the more family friendly movie. War had high RT rating, critical acclaim, coming off a huge hit in the franchise with Dawn by the same director. It had all going for it to do well. As it turned out WOTPOTA didn't have a good marketing campaign and the audience awareness just wasn't there.

If 50 million is your base number, that'll mean a 57.2% drop from OW. Which will mean SM:H will have one of the best drops among the MCU movies (Only Avengers, GOTG 1 & 2 and Ant-Man had better holds) (Thor and DS doesn't count because they were released in Nov. and had veteran's day softening the 2nd weekend). Frankly SM:H's drop is more in line with a high opening July tentpole. I may be wrong about this but I don't think Apes had a significant effect at all.

That's rediculous both movies vastly underperformed. Apes was tracking at 70M yet barely performed better than Rise, and probably did worse inflation adjusted.

This is why studios tend to gap big films like this from running into each other. I'm not saying that it has a -50% drop but it certainly does better than -62%.

For two films that were both praised by critics and received outstanding cinema scores, you would expect them to perform better.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

is that good? I see that WW did about eight hunderend thousand more on its second Tuesday but I now wonder women has had crazy legs.

Don't compare SM:H with Wonder Woman. Ant-Man is a better comparison. Ant-Man dropped 57.5% from Sunday and 48% from last Monday.

 

[Tony Stark]

$5,455,599 Monday, 58.0% drop from Sunday and 55.3% drop from last Monday.
That makes $6.73M the number to beat tomorrow to get a lower week on week drop for Tuesday.

Domestic total up to $212,731,123 after day 11.

http://www.the-numbers.com/daily-box-office-chart

It should be able to do that considering Tuesdays are discount days.

 

[Tony Stark]

Did Man Of Steel really face tougher competition than two of the best reviewed movies of the year coming right after it?

No it didn't. It did have to face off Monsters U and World War Z in it's second weekend, but nothing close to what SMH had to endure. June is typically a loaded month, but World War Z was a box office disappointment, The Heat was a fairly successful comedy for it's budget, but White House Down was a downright mega flop.

 

[TheVileOne]

That's not correct, Spider-man 3 held two weeks at no. 1, it went head to head with 28 weeks later which made less than 10 mil. It too had a >60% drop but it was free and clear in it's second weekend. What do you think would have happened if it had to go head to head with Pirates or Shrek in it's second weekend?



Speed Racer was a total flop. Yes there was alot of marketing set for it, but eveyone knew by the tracking that it wasn't going to perform well.



Yes films get released every week over the summer, but most studios don't put their tent pole films a week after another big release. Guardians and Wonder Woman benefitted from having zero competition. That doesn't mean there weren't films released, it means that pretty much every film in May and June other than those two vastly under performed.

The bottom line is that it was stupid for Fox to put Apes a week after Spider-man. Had they put it out in August, it probably would have at least come closer to Dawn's numbers. It's pretty clear that while Apes may not be a bomb, it's a huge box office disappointment, and yet many critics have called it the best film of the summer.

Guardians of the Galaxy was released a week before King Arthur, a $175 major tentpole film from Warner Bros. Yes it was a tentpole for them. Just because they were more successful and their competition wasn't doesn't mean they had no competition.

The Mummy was supposed to be a franchise starter for Universal Pictures. That came out a week after Wonder Woman.

I'm sorry Tony Stark, but you are playing revisionist history.

Speed Racer might've flopped but you can't deny that it was a tentpole release. It was a major budgeted tentpole release for Warner Bros.

The fact is, tentpoles are scheduled a week apart all the time. It's just that tentpoles don't always do well:

2008

May 2 - Iron Man
May 9 - Speed Racer
May 16 - Prince Caspian
May 23 - Indiana Jones 4
May 30 - Sex and the City
June 6 - Kung Fu Panda
June 13 - The Incredible Hulk
June 20 - Get Smart
June 27 - WALLE
July 4 - Hancock
July 11 - Hellboy 2
July 18 - The Dark Knight
August 1 - The Mummy 3
August 15 - Tropic Thunder

So right there for the space of two months, you had a new major tentpole release coming out almost every week for two months. It was really The Dark Knight that lacked major competition. But that was in the summer's waning days when the season is winding down. But don't believe me? Let's check summer 2009?

May 1 - Wolverine 1
May 8 - Star Trek
May 15 - Angels and Demons
May 21 - Terminator Salvation
May 22 - Night at the Museum 2
May 29 - Up
June 6 - The Hangover
June 26 - Transformers 2
July 1 - Ice Age Dawn of the Dinosaurs
July 10 - Bruno
July 16 - Harry Potter 6

OK, so let's at least look at May here. One weekend you had Wolverine 1. An X-Men movie prequel. Another weekend a big budget reboot of Star Trek, and then the following weekend a Sequel to The DaVinci Code. Another weekend you had a big budget reboot of the Terminator franchise. All that in the month of May, and that's EIGHT YEARS AGO.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

is that good? I see that WW did about eight hunderend thousand more on its second Tuesday but I now wonder women has had crazy legs.

It's fine. Pretty much the same drop as the first Guardians movie. Homecoming still performing like a typical MCU film.

 

[TheVileOne]

No it didn't. It did have to face off Monsters U and World War Z in it's second weekend, but nothing close to what SMH had to endure. June is typically a loaded month, but World War Z was a box office disappointment, The Heat was a fairly successful comedy for it's budget, but White House Down was a downright mega flop.

Planet of the Apes isn't performing to expectations either.

 

[spiderman2]

Don't compare SM:H with Wonder Woman. Ant-Man is a better comparison. Ant-Man dropped 57.5% from Sunday and 48% from last Monday.

While like I said I know that WW had crazy legs I just wasn't sure how good that drop was and I don't know a lot about how boxoffice works. So its drop was bigger then ant man's then?

 

[TheVileOne]

Yes it was, but Ant-Man only opened with $57 million and cost significantly less money. Expectations were lower. Many expected it would bomb.