Homecoming The Box Office Thread

[iEquinox]

One thing I'm not getting here is the weekend to weekend drop. With all the critical acclaim & good WOM this movie generated, one would have expected SM:H to hold a little better. As it stands, it's the biggest drop for an MCU movie in it's 2nd weekend. It's basically acting like a front-loaded sequel. War took a bite but was it really a good chunk of SM:H's BO?? The demographics for both movie are totally different. I thought both were going to co-exist and bring in big money for the weekend.

Homecoming's drop really isn't weird at all. The vast majority of MCU movies were released outside of summer, so they have a big advantage when it comes to the second weekend drop. We literally only have 3 valid comparisons for MCU movie released in the midst of summer: GotG, Ant-Man and CA: TFA.

It dropped more than Ant-Man and GotG, but those were the two leggiest MCU movies, so no surprise there. It's about on par with CA: TFA, while opening much higher. And CA: TFA's multiplier is higher than the average MCU multiplier.

If you confused by this drop, you probably don't really understand the differences between a July movie and a May movie, and why a movie will have a bigger second weekend drop when it gets released in July as opposed to May. It really isn't rocket science if you look into it.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Homecoming's drop really isn't weird at all. The vast majority of MCU movies were released outside of summer, so they have a big advantage when it comes to the second weekend drop. We literally only have 3 valid comparisons for MCU movie released in the midst of summer: GotG, Ant-Man and CA: TFA.

It dropped more than Ant-Man and GotG, but those were the two leggiest MCU movies, so no surprise there. It's about on par with CA: TFA, while opening much higher. And CA: TFA's multiplier is higher than the average MCU multiplier.

Fair enough. Also both GOTG and Ant-Man opened much lower, so there was always more upfront demand for SM:H. Hence the bigger drop isn't that out of the ordinary.

If you confused by this drop, you probably don't really understand the differences between a July movie and a May movie, and why a movie will have a bigger second weekend drop when it gets released in July as opposed to May. It really isn't rocket science if you look into it.

Bruh, drop this condescension. We know you are good at analyzing the BO patterns, I always look forward to your posts regarding the BO stuff but tone down the know-it all attitude.

 

[Webhead38]

I think there's a much under-rated reaction from the general public who does not vote on Rotten Tomatoes or post on topic specific forums. Blockbuster films have to be embraced by those masses in addition to the fans who show up no matter what the product actually smells like.

What is notable about Spider-man's decline is he's easily one of the more popular heroes in the Marvel universe. Easily recognized and extremely popular with kids of all ages. So it's fair to label him a flagship level character.

The problem here is stability with the character as he's been depicted in film. Spider-man was introduced fifteen years ago to the cinematic public. But in fifteen years he continues to be recast and kept wet behind the ears so that audiences are becoming fatigued with the early stages of this hero. When can this character come into his own and just BE Spider-man?

He seem to be reaching that level by the time Sony cut ties with Raimi and Tobey. He never got past a runny nose with Garfield. And now he's not even old enough to drive or design his own outfit. So the character keeps regressing. After fifteen years, I think the general masses are tired of Spider-boy in diapers. They want Spider-MAN.

He can still be young and trying to find his place in the world. But this nonstop reboot of him trying to figure out his abilities is just tiresome no matter how they choose to tell it. Get this kid off the bench and lets start recreating some classic tales of Spider-man where he IS experienced and he's fighting the good fight.

 

[iEquinox]

Fair enough. Also both GOTG and Ant-Man opened much lower, so there was always more upfront demand for SM:H. Hence the bigger drop isn't that out of the ordinary.



Bruh, drop this condescension. We know you are good at analyzing the BO patterns, I always look forward to your posts regarding the BO stuff but tone down the know-it all attitude.

Sorry, didn't mean to be condescending. With that last part my aim was to point out that the differences between the release dates become clear after you take a closer look. I guess since you can't hear my tone the words come across a lot more condescending than I intended.. The curse of communicating through text I guess..
Really didn't mean to offend anyone.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Sorry, didn't mean to be condescending. With that last part my aim was to point out that the differences between the release dates become clear after you take a closer look. I guess since you can't hear my tone the words come across a lot more condescending than I intended.. The curse of communicating through text I guess..
Really didn't mean to offend anyone.

We're cool, bro.

I was also expecting that SM:H will closely mirror Ant-Man's 2nd weekend drop or at least come close to that like [a drop of (58-59.5)]%. I mean SM:H was very consistent with it's drops in the first 7 days compared with Ant-Man. So that might have played a part for me to expect a slightly better drop. But we hafta take into account that Ant-Man was the first movie of it's kind (a new Superhero and heist movie) and a significantly lower OW. That would explain why SM:H didn't follow Ant-Man's 2nd weekend drop. What do you think??

 

[Rorschach2012]

I was hoping this would've made a lot more so we could show Sony that the MCU route was the only way

 

[Blitzkrieg]

OS update:

Internationally, Spider-Man delivered an estimated $72.3 million this weekend, bringing its overseas cume to $261 million and worldwide tally just shy of $470 million. Among new openings this weekend, the film debuted at #1 in France with an estimated $6 million and at #2 in Germany with an estimated $3.7 million. The film still has openings in Belgium, Spain, Japan and China upcoming.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I was hoping this would've made a lot more so we could show Sony that the MCU route was the only way

SM:H is doing well, standard for a July CBM and MCU route is still the only way for Sony to continue with Spidey movies. You can almost bet that if ASM3 were to be made, it would've crashed into oblivion in the domestic market. Believe me, the execs over at Sony are really glad that a deal with Marvel Studios happened.

 

[Chesterfield]

I was hoping this would've made a lot more so we could show Sony that the MCU route was the only way

You're reasoning is off. This isn't just about money; it's about re-establishing and repairing the brand. You're not going to come with a second reboot in 5 years, coming off 3 movies and 10 years worth of degradation to all of a sudden knocking on close to the $Billion milestone with one movie.

Marvel have done with Spider-Man what Sony have failed to do for at least 10 years and characterwise, Sony have never EVER come this close to properly realising the character.

Marvel have already proven their route was and is the way to go and after Avengers IW 1+2 Homecoming's sequel will likely make the sort of over ambitious numbers some of you people unwisely expected for this first movie.

 

[Rorschach2012]

You're reasoning is off. This isn't just about money; it's about re-establishing and repairing the brand. You're not going to come with a second reboot in 5 years, coming off 3 movies and 10 years worth of degradation to all of a sudden knocking on close to the $Billion milestone with one movie.

Marvel have done with Spider-Man what Sony have failed to do for at least 10 years and characterwise, Sony have never EVER come this close to properly realising the character.

Marvel have already proven their route was and is the way to go and after Avengers IW 1+2 Homecoming's sequel will likely make the sort of over ambitious numbers some of you people unwisely expected for this first movie.

Dude all Sony cares about is $$$

 

[HammerDown]

The way i see it it's doing just fine. Already at 469M WW and still hasn't opened in Spain, Japan and China which are all good markets. The only thing i wonder is how is it with China, because i read that they weren't releasing the movie over there... so that could be a issue.

 

[The Joker]

469 worldwide is a great figure for the second week, IMO. Especially against another juggernaut like Apes.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I was hoping this would've made a lot more so we could show Sony that the MCU route was the only way

A lot of people in general don't realize the BO receipts for this film are purely going to Sony not Marvel/Disney. They only profit off the merchandise in their deal.

So yeah if Sony feels the MCU connection didn't give the film the BO boost it wanted they certainly have the power to downplay that connection.

 

[iEquinox]

We're cool, bro.

I was also expecting that SM:H will closely mirror Ant-Man's 2nd weekend drop or at least come close to that like [a drop of (58-59.5)]%. I mean SM:H was very consistent with it's drops in the first 7 days compared with Ant-Man. So that might have played a part for me to expect a slightly better drop. But we hafta take into account that Ant-Man was the first movie of it's kind (a new Superhero and heist movie) and a significantly lower OW. That would explain why SM:H didn't follow Ant-Man's 2nd weekend drop. What do you think??

I see Ant-Man's drops as a best case scenario. Ant-Man has the second highest multiplier in the MCU, second only to GotG, and ahead of Iron Man(which dropped less than 50% on its second weekend). If it followed Ant-Man throughout the entire run after Monday, it would still have gotten a 3x multiplier($350M) after the big Thursday previews, which would have been extremely good for a movie with a popular character like Spider-Man. As I said, I see it as a best case scenario, so I was hoping it could, but it didn't really surprise me when it didn't do it.

If Spider-Man followed Ant-Man drops since Monday that would have gotten it $47.4M, which is a still a 59.4% drop. So it would have had to do better than Ant-Man did after Monday do get a drop lower than 59.4%

The way i see it it's doing just fine. Already at 469M WW and still hasn't opened in Spain, Japan and China which are all good markets. The only thing i wonder is how is it with China, because i read that they weren't releasing the movie over there... so that could be a issue.

They are releasing it in China, it has been approved for release. It just has to wait until China's summer ban on foreign movies is over.

Spider-Man: Homecoming and Luc Besson’s Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets are both approved to be shown in China, but have no release date

http://chinafilminsider.com/lights-chinas-summer-import-blackout-return/

 

[gerrym51]

this thread seems to be going the way of amazing spider man 1 and 2 and ,

MOS,BVS,SS.


lots of action and heated words-yowza

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I see Ant-Man's drops as a best case scenario. Ant-Man has the second highest multiplier in the MCU, second only to GotG, and ahead of Iron Man(which dropped less than 50% on its second weekend). If it followed Ant-Man throughout the entire run after Monday, it would still have gotten a 3x multiplier($350M) after the big Thursday previews, which would have been extremely good for a movie with a popular character like Spider-Man. As I said, I see it as a best case scenario, so I was hoping it could, but it didn't really surprise me when it didn't do it.

If Spider-Man followed Ant-Man drops since Monday that would have gotten it $47.4M, which is a still a 59.4% drop. So it would have had to do better than Ant-Man did after Monday do get a drop lower than 59.4%

Good points.

 

[HanShotFirst]

I see majority voted for $700-800/800-900mil range which means even we superfans knew what's up. I personally see it as a Batman Begins/Casino Royale situation. It was needed to stop the "bleeding" and restore the reputation.

It seems fans flocked to see MCU Spider-man on the opening days but the general audience remain apathetic. Completely understandable being second reboot and all but I also think casual moviegoers are not that interested in "Spidey fighting another one of his villains" solo movies anymore.

I think the next movie should be a team-up or an event movie. Have Spidey team up with Strange to take on Mysterio or team up with Panther to take on Kraven. Hell, you can even go full Cap: Civil War and make it Spider-Man: New Avengers.

Controversial I know but you gotta do what you gotta do for that sweet sweet moneh.

 

[ironwez20]

That's sad. I honestly blame them rebooting so earlythat caused the fatigue. If only Sony was smart

 

[Coolkid]

If Homecoming manages to reach $900million, that's a big feat. Cos it'll be the highest grossing Spider-man movie ever and that's not an easy thing to do, considering it's 3rd reboot and all the negativity it had jus before its release...!!!

 

[ImSGirl95]

Yo, my man harry, what's up, dude? What did you think of the movie? Oh wait ... no ... nobody cares.

 

[spider-neil]

That's sad. I honestly blame them rebooting so earlythat caused the fatigue. If only Sony was smart

They had to put out a movie or they would have lost the rights.

 

[Osiris-Rex]

The way i see it it's doing just fine. Already at 469M WW and still hasn't opened in Spain, Japan and China which are all good markets. The only thing i wonder is how is it with China, because i read that they weren't releasing the movie over there... so that could be a issue.

Why wouldn't Spider-Man Homecoming be released in China? Deadpool wasn't because it was rated R and Suicide Squad wasn't because there was a blatantly Japanese character in it, Katana, complete with a Rising Sun mask.
(China has yet to forgive Japan for WW2) What is there in SMH that would make the Chinese not want to show it? I think it's just it won't be released in the summer in China, not that it won't be released at all.

 

[spider-neil]

If Homecoming manages to reach $900million, that's a big feat. Cos it'll be the highest grossing Spider-man movie ever and that's not an easy thing to do, considering it's 3rd reboot and all the negativity it had jus before its release...!!!

SMH will be hard pressed to make 800m.

 

[Faith_Cassidy]

Mendelson is often disappointingly bad at making valid comparisons for someone who analyses box office numbers :/

He's basing his assumption that Homecoming should have similar legs to SM3 and TASM2 solely off the 2nd weekend drop, leaving out all context:

Second weekend drop:
SM3: 61.5%
TASM2: 61.2%
SM: H:61.4%

But TASM2 and SM3 were released in May, while Homecoming is released in July. This makes a huge difference, which Mendelson has completely overlooked.

Let's compare the 3 movies, and by how big the ratio is between opening weekend and their total after 10 days:
Multiplier after 10 days:
SM3: 1.590x
TASM2: 1.596x
SM: H: 1.780x

Clearly, Homecoming is outpacing both by a significant margin, because it's a July movie. Homecoming is on track for a significantly bigger multiplier than both SM3 and TASM2.

Mendelson's comparison is flawed, and Homecoming will beat his $265M projection with ease. It should be at roughly $250M after next weekend, and his projection is going to look rather foolish by then

I knew I made a good choice in not even reading his take. I went to his twitter page though and saw his misleading headline along with a claim that Homecoming isn't doing bad, it's just not improving or benefitting from the MCU connection. Lol I think it's safe to say that a 6th spidey film with no MCU connection would have a really difficult time reaching 100M OW, let alone 117M. Mendelson is proving he is no BO expert after all.

 

[Coolkid]

Why wouldn't Spider-Man Homecoming be released in China? Deadpool wasn't because it was rated R and Suicide Squad wasn't because there was a blatantly Japanese character in it, Katana, complete with a Rising Sun mask.
(China has yet to forgive Japan for WW2) What is there in SMH that would make the Chinese not want to show it? I think it's just it won't be released in the summer in China, not that it won't be released at all.

Read somewhere that this month is dedicated only for chinese movies in CHina. So Hollywood movies will be released. Spidey will given some date later in August.