Homecoming The Box Office Thread

[iEquinox]

Fun fact: If Spider-Man: Homecoming ends up with a final domestic gross of $322.5M or more it will be ranked 5th out of 16 on the list of leggiest movies in the MCU.

I think that really puts some of the overreactions about "big drops" into perspective, since it still has a very real shot at getting there.

 

[Ozbridge]

There is no reason to think SMH didn't have good WOM. I've seen way more people raving about it than calling it a "generic MCU movie". Fact is, it was never going to hold as well as movies like Wonder Woman or GotG or even GotG2 because those movies were seen as bringing something fresh/unique to the genre. Certainly, I would not say WW or GotG2 is a better movie than SMH but they didn't need to be. WW being the first good movie starring a female superohero has taken it a long way. SMH, on the other hand, would always have to contend with a portion of moviegoers seeing it as yet another spidey movie, regardless of how good it turned out to be.

I do think that SMH is having good WOM, just not excellent WOM. Its 93% RT might make fans tempted to think that it'll hold similar to other movies with same RT score like GotG or Logan (even though that one is in March), but in reality it holds like 80% Ant-Man. Hence I said great RT doesn't guarantee break out (same with Alien and Apes).

 

[Mysteryman]

It's a shame that there's been such a big drop, I was beginning to think it might break a billion (or at least get close), but now it looks like it probably won't.

A movie making a billion dollars is more rare than you might think.

 

[Faith_Cassidy]

I do think that SMH is having good WOM, just not excellent WOM. Its 93% RT might make fans tempted to think that it'll hold similar to other movies with same RT score like GotG or Logan (even though that one is in March), but in reality it holds like 80% Ant-Man. Hence I said great RT doesn't guarantee break out (same with Alien and Apes).

I haven't seen much of a difference between the WOM for SMH and WW, for example. Again, the real difference lies in the latter being a first and the former being a reboot of a reboot. If this were the first spidey film or even the first reboot, I doubt we'd be having this conversation.

 

[Skies]

Could the high school setting be turning people off?

I suspect this too.

The demographic turnout so far was dominated by teen boys & under-25 men.

The movie might have gotten great WOM amongst them (they also dominate forums like this one, Reddit & so on) that simply isn't spreading or convincing people outside the bubble.

 

[Spider-Fan]

The Box Office numbers are still fine given the budget and the fact it was another recent reboot for Spider-Man. I feel the next one is where we will see the spike (which is what happened for both Cap and Thor from movie 1 to movie 2).

 

[Faith_Cassidy]

I suspect this too.

The demographic turnout so far was dominated by teen boys & under-25 men.

The movie might have gotten great WOM amongst them (they also dominate forums like this one, Reddit & so on) that simply isn't spreading or convincing people outside the bubble.

Not really true. Yes, the movie attracted a higher percentage of the under 25 crowd but that's not a bad thing at all. The fact that it's more evenly split among under/over 25 is quite impressive, actually.

 

[Tony Stark]

The reality is that this was bound to have this kind of a drop releasing this close to Apes. Ironically Fox also kind of screwed their own movie by releasing it so close to Spider-man. Either way it's hard to say SMH has bad WOM. A typical drop for a CBM is -58-60%, this was a little higher than normal.

 

[The Joker]

Spidey would be between TDKR and Days of Future Past.

 

[Krystal]

Is this movie going to be released in China?

 

[Black Narcissus]

they could have made another andrew garfield movie. However in their defense-

Marvel produced this movie-Kevin Feige picked the actor. Marvel created the script.this is a Marvel film that Sony financed and gets the profits. Marvel gets a fee for making this movie.

What could Sony have done 'better'.

 

[StormC]

True story, I took my parents to see Homecoming and my dad asked if the movie was doing well because the theater wasn't very full, and I had to explain to him superhero movie frontloading.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Is this movie going to be released in China?

Yes, SM:H will be released in China. Just not in the Summer season. It'll be released in September at the earliest.

 

[AlluAllu]

This does have a good word of mouth, from what I've seen. The people who saw it liked it and probably recommended it to their friends. It's just that there aren't so many people interested in Spider-Man movies any more to begin with. But maybe the home release and Infinity War can win them over by the sequel.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

The Box Office numbers are still fine given the budget and the fact it was another recent reboot for Spider-Man. I feel the next one is where we will see the spike (which is what happened for both Cap and Thor from movie 1 to movie 2).

If the SM:H sequel is the MCU movie that immediately follows IW2, then it'll receive a significant bump for it's OW. Kinda like what happened with IM3 and perhaps it'll also become even more front-loaded.

 

[StormC]

Spidey just has to build his brand back up. Remember, this has already beaten the domestic total of ASM2. It's working, but it won't be instantaneous.

Sure, I'd like it to make more, but if it can get to 300M DOM and 750M WW that's already an improvement.

 

[spiderman2]

OS update:

With those numbers was that a 45 million USA weekend? With it being at 470 now I think worst cause we get around another 100 USA and like 100 OS to get up to 670 not counting Japan and China and the other like few places it has yet to come out and from those places at least 130 to get it up to 800.

SM:H is doing well, standard for a July CBM and MCU route is still the only way for Sony to continue with Spidey movies. You can almost bet that if ASM3 were to be made, it would've crashed into oblivion in the domestic market. Believe me, the execs over at Sony are really glad that a deal with Marvel Studios happened.

Yeah I think if we saw a amazing Spider-Man 3 that even if the movie turned out great because of the other amazing Spider-Man movies and Spider-Man 3 that the movie may have only done like 150 USA and like 600 WW or something.

Dude all Sony cares about is $$$

That may be true but at worst this movie should make around 90 million or so more then amazing Spider-Man 2 and that is still a improvement and with its great reception the next should do even better.

SMH will be hard pressed to make 800m.

Disagree 800 should be the minimum. I don't see how it is not going to make at least another 330m when it has only been 2 weeks and still has Japan and china 2 place were the last Spider-Man made around 130m in. It should be able to do at least that 130 and if so that would mean it would only need another 200m from the rest of the OS and USA. I would say max is 900 going to say it ends at 850.

 

[spiderman2]

Spidey just has to build his brand back up. Remember, this has already beaten the domestic total of ASM2. It's working, but it won't be instantaneous.

Sure, I'd like it to make more, but if it can get to 300M DOM and 750M WW that's already an improvement.

I wonder how long or if it can pass asm2 OS numbers. It needs around 230 more OS to match ASM2 and I think Japan and China should give the movie at least 130 of that. Considering the movie dosnt come out to Japan in till august 11th and don't have a date yet for China its most likely going to be a while.

 

[spiderman2]

At least it'll have some breathing room after Dunkirk comes out. Barely any really big releases after that for a while. Dark Tower is kind of the only one that has potential to be big until the last half of September, and it doesn't look like Dark Tower will be that big. It will also have a more mature audience so it will probably have more of an effect on Apes/Dunkirk than it would on Spider-Man.

And talking about competition, May/June next year looks like an absolute nightmare in that regard.

After Infinity War on May 4th, there's all of these, with just 1 week seperating each one from the next:

Han Solo (May 25th)
Deadpool 2(June 1st)
Ocean's 8(June 8)
Incredibles 2(June 15)
Jurassic World 2(June 22).

If none of those get moved it will be a ridiculous couple of weeks for the box office.

Ocean's 8 What? We had ocean's 10-12 were is 13 or a 9? I am confused.
Han solo I think it going to be the first star wars movie to flop or be close to one. I just don't think it is something people are looking forward to or wanting or any thing.

 

[spiderman2]

So with 470m if the remaining places were the movies have yet to come out make the same that amazing Spider-Man 2 did it would make 136 in those places to get the movie to 606 plus what ever it has left USA and rest of the OS places.

 

[StormC]

No way does Han Solo flop. Rogue One made a billion dollars with its only recognizable character having five minutes of screentime.

 

[chamber-music]

I know quite a few people who aren't going to see this because they have Spidey fatigue and would rather wait to watch it when it drops on streaming/blu-ray

This heavy drop(relatively) and WftPotA's lower OW to me are a clear example of these 2 great movies hurting each other due to their proximity. What Hollywood exec/morons scheduled it this way? They should be fired. SMH lost probably $10m due to this and War probably lost $10-15m. Stupid! Stupid! Stupid!

And you Nolan fans better brace yourselves for Dunkirk to follow suit as well. All these movies should have had at least 1 extra week of buffer space between them. It's nuts.

Hollywood has been cannibalizing it's self with these big blockbusters for a few years now.

The blockbuster season is incredibly competitive. The big studios drop a major release almost every week in the summer.

 

[spiderman2]

No way does Han Solo flop. Rogue One made a billion dollars with its only recognizable character having five minutes of screentime.

I think rogue one was still something people were asking for though.

I know quite a few people who aren't going to see this because they have Spidey fatigue and would rather wait to watch it when it drops on streaming/blu-ray

Hollywood has been cannibalizing it's self with these big blockbusters for a few years now.

The blockbuster season is incredibly competitive. The big studios drop a major release almost every week in the summer.

Yeah I think there are a lot of people out there that are like another Spider-Man movie and back in highschool again? Havnt we already seen this? Yeah that is true about the competitiveness of movies.

 

[spiderman2]

So I think by the time the movie comes out in Japan we will have a really good idea of what the movies final numbers will be like. By the time the movie come out in Japan the movie will be heading into weekend 6 and most movies have made around 90% of its money by the end of weekend 5. Point being by the time the movie comes out in Japan the movie is going to most likely have very little left in it besides what ever it does in Japan and China once it comes out there.

 

[Raiden]

A movie making a billion dollars is more rare than you might think.

Yes, hence the reason why none of the DCEU movies have made over a billion thus far, even that movie with the Trinity assembled. Marvel just made it seemed easy when it's really not, unless it's the Fast & Furious franchise because China kept giving it 300 mil to propel it pass the milestone.