Dominated implies not all. And the extra dollars I was talking about are the amount required to get to $1.5B not $1B. Read the post I was replying to.
I agree, but you said it would be a lock to get $1.5B (if the next film was good/great).
3D doesn't just add on the price of the ticket multiplied by the total number of people viewing the film. It was a much bigger deal in the few years after Avatar. A fair percentage of people are put off when only 3D tickets are available now and I know many people (actually pretty much anyone I've been to the cinema with in the last 3 years) who don't watch 3D at all any more. And exchange rates have to be in your favour too. The biggest franchise event films which are going strong have a natural landing point well into the billion dollars nowadays while the solo films need to have something special just to scrape it. HC2 might well do that but $1.5B is another story and we are getting solo CBM films every year with 3D and well reviewed and popular that are doing well to get just over halfway.
Yeah the appeal of 3D is not what it was. And I agree (and have agreed this point quite a few times now) that $1B might not be easy but we are going to see more and more movies doing a billion (even a good number of solo films). But it's the $1.5B that is another ball game. Again possible, but needs the stars to align like they did for TDK, rather than just making a good solo film. Maybe IW will give HC2 a huge boost like Avengers did for IM3. It's going to take something well out of the ordinary like that rather than just a good HC sequel.
Yes but why do you keep talking about a billion? The only issue was the comment about $1.5B being a lock. I've agreed with everything else in the last 87 posts on $1B being possible lol. Do you use the word 'lock' differently to everyone else?
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Yes but why do you keep talking about a billion? The only issue was the comment about $1.5B being a lock. I've agreed with everything else in the last 87 posts on $1B being possible lol. Do you use the word 'lock' differently to everyone else?
It is possible if every major market and most other markets all do amazingly, it gets a huge IW boost, exchange rates are very favourable, it gets another 90%+ rating and everything else goes right for it, and even with all those factors it'd be likely to fall short. When Avengers did it and when IM3 did 300m less and when TDK did 500m less, they all outperformed expectations in a big way so you need a reason that HC will outperform the already large expectations it will have. Avengers was the first mainstream CBM team up film and delivered on a very risky proposition, IM3 saw a once-in-CBM history boost from being directly after Avengers (and HC will definitely need this from IW) and TDK was Nolan's masterpiece and to many people the best CBM of all time (as well as Heath Ledger's untimely death having some influence).
I think 700-800 million is probably the range. No point setting yourself up for disappointment. This film needs to rebuild trust with casuals first. The sequel is where you'll see a jump imo. This is a fantastic start, like Batman Begins was in '05.
