Homecoming The Box Office Thread

[spiderman2]

Any news about how its first Monday went today?

 

[Mysteryman]

I think that information should be out by midday tomorrow.

 

[RetrogradeOrbit]

A thought, and as I have so few, I'm putting it in here...

Taking into account that cinema ticket prices are forever changing, isn't it more accurate to gauge the popularity of one movie against another by looking at the number of tickets sold overall?

 

[spiderman2]

A thought, and as I have so few, I'm putting it in here...

Taking into account that cinema ticket prices are forever changing, isn't it more accurate to gauge the popularity of one movie against another by looking at the number of tickets sold overall?

I think you can really only compare movies that come out the same year now has there are just to many factors that can affect even the amount of tickets sold. Example is in the old days you didn't have has many other things to do like video games, watching sports, Netflix etc so people were more likely to go to the movies. Also movies would stay in theaters much longer and didn't came out has fast to dvd. Then you have the fact that tickets cost so much now days heck the theater I go to has went up in price ever single time I have went to the movies this year. Was at 10.75 when I first went this year and is now up to 12.20. Because there is other things to do now besides going to the movie less people go to the movies. Because of the ticket prices and a bad economy less people go. Because you don't have to want like a year for a movie to go from theater to dvd any more that means more people are going to either want for a movie to come out on dvd before seeing it or are more likely only going to see it once rather then going and seeing a movie a 2nd time or 3erd time etc. Also I beat there are more movies coming out per year then there were in say like 1930 and that means more options to choice from. At the same time there are more people in the world then there were in say 1930-1980 and the international market is so much bigger that there are way more people that have a opition to go to the movies now days then before.

 

[spiderman2]

12.3 Monday and 2nd weekend estimated to do 50-53 is what deadline says.
http://deadline.com/2017/07/spider-...box-office-four-day-domestic-cume-1202126541/

 

[AvengerPA]

I will predict a second weekend of $60 million.

 

[StormC]

Seems like it's going to be hard nowadays for Marvel films to have second weekend drops below 55%.

 

[spiderman2]

I will predict a second weekend of $60 million.

That would be below a 50% drop so unlikely but would be awesome. Just thinking amazing Spider-Man 2 only made just below 203 million USA. This movie is at 129 going into today. If it makes 50 million this weekend that would put it at 179 million not counting what ever it does today, wed and Thursday. So that would mean it would only need to make about 24 million on those 3 days or about 8 million a day to be at what amazing Spider-Man 2 did. So most likely HC will already pass amazing Spider-Man 2 after just its 2nd weekend lol.

 

[Ozbridge]

So SMH dropped 57.9% similar to Ant-Man's 57.6% first Sun-Mon drop 2 years ago. Considering both are July films, this points toward SMH dropping 56.5% for 50.9M in 2nd weekend. If SMH also has 3.15X multiple like Ant-Man then its domestic total will be 368.5M

This is very good since Spider-Man is a much more popular character, plus with all the Iron Man trailer but the film is not more front-loaded than Ant-Man, an unknown character.

I just realize that Ant-Man also has an Illumination movie (Minions) opening 1 week prior (SMH has DM3). After release Ant-Man has much less competition though, only 25M Pixels on 2nd weekend and 55M MI5 on 3rd weekend.

 

[StormC]

I think some of the GA might feel a bit misled since Iron Man has maybe five minutes of screentime.

 

[iEquinox]

Yeah, 55-60% drop for the second weekend would be the expected range for any superhero movie with good reception. Can't really hope for much better than that, especially for ones with well known characters and a big opening weekend like this.

I will predict a second weekend of $60 million.

$60M isn't a realistic prediction. Of all non-animated superhero movies with an opening of 70M+, only 4 have ever dropped less than 50% on the 2nd weekend, and one of them needed a holiday to do it. (Counting Friday openers only since others can't be compared)

Those are Spider-Man(2002), Iron Man, Wonder Woman and Doctor Strange(with the help of a holiday). And Homecoming already had the biggest Thursday night previews out of all of those, which makes it even harder. Not to mention that all of the movies that did it were the first times any of those characters got their own movie, which helps them drop less as well.

If Homecoming drops less than 50% in the second weekend that would be unprecedented. And a 50% drop would still put it $1.5M short of $60M.

 

[iEquinox]

So SMH dropped 57.9% similar to Ant-Man's 57.6% first Sun-Mon drop 2 years ago. Considering both are July films, this points toward SMH dropping 56.5% for 50.9M in 2nd weekend. If SMH also has 3.15X multiple like Ant-Man then its domestic total will be 368.5M

This is very good since Spider-Man is a much more popular character, plus with all the Iron Man trailer but the film is not more front-loaded than Ant-Man, an unknown character.

I just realize that Ant-Man also has an Illumination movie (Minions) opening 1 week prior (SMH has DM3). After release Ant-Man has much less competition though, only 25M Pixels on 2nd weekend and 55M MI5 on 3rd weekend.

Homecoming's 1st Monday is 10.5% of the opening weekend, while Ant-Man's Monday was 11.2% of the opening weekend. So it's already showing signs of slowing down a bit faster than Ant-Man. Taking this into consideration for the second weekend would give Homecoming a 2nd weekend of (50.9*(10.5/11.2)=)$47.8M if it follows Ant-Man's run after Monday. Another way to arrive at the same number would be if Homecoming's 2nd weekend is 3.89x the first Monday, just like it was for Ant-Man. $47.8M would be a 59.2% drop.

But with only 4 days worth of numbers it's very hard to make any confident predictions. I wouldn't expect it to have a multiplier as good as Ant-Man though, which had the 2nd best multiplier in the MCU, behind only GotG. It needs to show some signs of great legs before I'm going start thinking about a multiplier over 3x.

 

[spiderman2]

So SMH dropped 57.9% similar to Ant-Man's 57.6% first Sun-Mon drop 2 years ago. Considering both are July films, this points toward SMH dropping 56.5% for 50.9M in 2nd weekend. If SMH also has 3.15X multiple like Ant-Man then its domestic total will be 368.5M

This is very good since Spider-Man is a much more popular character, plus with all the Iron Man trailer but the film is not more front-loaded than Ant-Man, an unknown character.

I just realize that Ant-Man also has an Illumination movie (Minions) opening 1 week prior (SMH has DM3). After release Ant-Man has much less competition though, only 25M Pixels on 2nd weekend and 55M MI5 on 3rd weekend.

Interesting about its multiple. Just looked and the Spider-Man movies USA numbers have had the following multiple.

Spider-Man 3.515
Spider-Man 2 4.238
Spider-Man 3 2.227
Amazing Spider-Man 4.226
Amazing Spider-Man 2 2.214

Interesting that both amazing Spider-Man and Spider-Man 2 both had a very high multipler even though amazing Spider-Man was considerd just kind of good but maybe part of that is that fact that it was I think a wed release not a Friday. If you take those Spider-Man movies its multiple average is 3.284

 

[spiderman2]

Homecoming's 1st Monday is 10.5% of the opening weekend, while Ant-Man's Monday was 11.2% of the opening weekend. So it's already showing signs of slowing down a bit faster than Ant-Man. Taking this into consideration for the second weekend would give Homecoming a 2nd weekend of (50.9*(10.5/11.2)=)$47.8M if it follows Ant-Man's run after Monday. Another way to arrive at the same number would be if Homecoming's 2nd weekend is 3.89x the first Monday, just like it was for Ant-Man. $47.8M would be a 59.2% drop.

But with only 4 days worth of numbers it's very hard to make any confident predictions. I wouldn't expect it to have a multiplier as good as Ant-Man though, which had the 2nd best multiplier in the MCU, behind only GotG. It needs to show some signs of great legs before I'm going start thinking about a multiplier over 3x.

Interesting you guys are good at finding numbers. Hopefully we can get a multiple of at least 3. Should have a much better idea after this weekend with Apes coming out. If it has a really good drop this week with Apes coming out then I think we are in great shape for a multiple of 3 or better.

 

[iEquinox]

Interesting about its multiple. Just looked and the Spider-Man movies USA numbers have had the following multiple.

Spider-Man 3.515
Spider-Man 2 4.238
Spider-Man 3 2.227
Amazing Spider-Man 4.226
Amazing Spider-Man 2 2.214

Interesting that both amazing Spider-Man and Spider-Man 2 both had a very high multipler even though amazing Spider-Man was considerd just kind of good but maybe part of that is that fact that it was I think a wed release not a Friday. If you take those Spider-Man movies its multiple average is 3.284

Spider-Man 2 and TASM both have an unfair advantage for the weekend multiplier because they opened on a Wednesday and Tuesday respectively. If they all opened on a Friday Spider-Man would have the best muliplier by a pretty wide margin.

 

[spiderman2]

How long do you guys think it will take for the movie to pass amazing Spider-Man 2's USA numbers? It made about 262 million. With the moving being at 129 million going into today if the movie were to drop 60% this week we would be looking at a 2nd weekend of 46.8. If we had another 60% drop in weekend 3 that would be a 3erd weekend of 18.72. That would mean 194.52 after weekend 3 not counting what ever it does today, wed, Thursday and next week on Monday threw Thursday. So if it could then make around 68.5 million or so those 7 days we could be passed amazing Spider-Man 2 and 60% drops may be at worst.

 

[gerrym51]

How long do you guys think it will take for the movie to pass amazing Spider-Man 2's USA numbers? It made about 262 million. With the moving being at 129 million going into today if the movie were to drop 60% this week we would be looking at a 2nd weekend of 46.8. If we had another 60% drop in weekend 3 that would be a 3erd weekend of 18.72. That would mean 194.52 after weekend 3 not counting what ever it does today, wed, Thursday and next week on Monday threw Thursday. So if it could then make around 68.5 million or so those 7 days we could be passed amazing Spider-Man 2 and 60% drops may be at worst.

ask us again after weekend 2 is over

 

[spiderman2]

Spider-Man 2 and TASM both have an unfair advantage for the weekend multiplier because they opened on a Wednesday and Tuesday respectively. If they all opened on a Friday Spider-Man would have the best muliplier by a pretty wide margin.

Oh ok I was thinking that both Spider-Man 2 and TASM both hoped on a wed. I was just thinking it was odd that they both had a really high multiple when one was considered kind of good and the other considered one of the best CBM ever.

 

[spiderman2]

ask us again after weekend 2 is over

Were do you guys think the movie will stand after its 2nd weekend? Maybe 50 million weekend and maybe 10 million per day for today threw Thursday to get to 209 million after Friday?

 

[spiderman2]

With Japan and China being the 2 big places left were the movie has not came out yet what kind of numbers do you guys think we will get there combind? Amazing Spider-Man 2 combind made 124683480.

 

[OcStat]

A thought, and as I have so few, I'm putting it in here...

Taking into account that cinema ticket prices are forever changing, isn't it more accurate to gauge the popularity of one movie against another by looking at the number of tickets sold overall?

Yeah if there's anyone who can shed more light on how this works I'd be interested to read it.

I can't remember where but maybe last week someone mentioned Batman '89 still has the most actual tickets sold of any Batman movie?

 

[gerrym51]

Were do you guys think the movie will stand after its 2nd weekend? Maybe 50 million weekend and maybe 10 million per day for today threw Thursday to get to 209 million after Friday?

you seem to be deeply vested in this movie-which is ok-however i suspect if you get an answer you don't like-you will take it as haters. Best to wait and see what it is after sunday and what kind of drop it has gotten.

 

[iEquinox]

How long do you guys think it will take for the movie to pass amazing Spider-Man 2's USA numbers? It made about 262 million. With the moving being at 129 million going into today if the movie were to drop 60% this week we would be looking at a 2nd weekend of 46.8. If we had another 60% drop in weekend 3 that would be a 3erd weekend of 18.72. That would mean 194.52 after weekend 3 not counting what ever it does today, wed, Thursday and next week on Monday threw Thursday. So if it could then make around 68.5 million or so those 7 days we could be passed amazing Spider-Man 2 and 60% drops may be at worst.

TASM2 made just under $203M. Homecoming should pass that on its 2nd weekend. But it's too early to tell exactly when it passes TASM at $262M. Depends too much on the 2nd weekend hold.

Yeah if there's anyone who can shed more light on how this works I'd be interested to read it.

I can't remember where but maybe last week someone mentioned Batman '89 still has the most actual tickets sold of any Batman movie?

That's based on inflation adjusted gross, this only exists for domestic, not worldwide because there's way too many markets to take into account for worldwide adjusted gross.

Here's a list of movies adjusted for inflation by boxofficemojo:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm

They explain how it works on this page:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/about/adjuster.htm

 

[spiderman2]

you seem to be deeply vested in this movie-which is ok-however i suspect if you get an answer you don't like-you will take it as haters. Best to wait and see what it is after sunday and what kind of drop it has gotten.

I just want it to do well loved the movie and have always loved Spider-Man and it is just interesting because I don't know a lot about like how boxoffice numbers work. lol know I am not going to take it has hate.

TASM2 made just under $203M. Homecoming should pass that on its 2nd weekend. But it's too early to tell exactly when it passes TASM at $262M. Depends too much on the 2nd weekend hold.


That's based on inflation adjusted gross, this only exists for domestic, not worldwide because there's way too many markets to take into account for worldwide adjusted gross.

Here's a list of movies adjusted for inflation by boxofficemojo:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm

They explain how it works on this page:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/about/adjuster.htm

lol sorry I meat to say amazing Spider-Man 1 not 2 USA numbers. Oh I have wondered about inflation adjusted gross and thought it was odd that they don't have WW adjusted for inflation and thought maybe I just hadn't found those numbers yet.

 

[gerrym51]

I just want it to do well loved the movie and have always loved Spider-Man and it is just interesting because I don't know a lot about like how boxoffice numbers work. lol know I am not going to take it has hate.



lol sorry I meat to say amazing Spider-Man 1 not 2 USA numbers. Oh I have wondered about inflation adjusted gross and thought it was odd that they don't have WW adjusted for inflation and thought maybe I just hadn't found those numbers yet.

in that case-based on its slowing i think it will be lucky to make 250 million total.