Homecoming The Box Office Thread

[iEquinox]

in that case-based on its slowing i think it will be lucky to make 250 million total.

What are you basing that on? Any comparisons?

Ending with just 250M would make it more front-loaded than any other MCU or Spider-Man movie. Seems extremely unlikely since it's getting very good reviews and word of mouth, and summer weekdays.

 

[Nicko-Ray]

I predict it's gonna just touch $300M by the end of it's domestic run. Looking at the past two ASM films, I don't think SMH will have trouble hitting $500M in the foreign market either, so I think $800M for it's BO total. Which is good for the second reboot AND a first standalone for MCU Spidey.

 

[gerrym51]

What are you basing that on? Any comparisons?

Ending with just 250M would make it more front-loaded than any other MCU or Spider-Man movie. Seems extremely unlikely since it's getting very good reviews and word of mouth, and summer weekdays.

my opinion-and it's an opinion-not written in stone is exactly that-summer weekday-boffo reviews- and a fanboy base that should be flocking to it. If this was the school year i'd feel differently.

Monday was -mediocre at best- it should have blown monday number out. Like I said an opinion

 

[Ozbridge]

Homecoming's 1st Monday is 10.5% of the opening weekend, while Ant-Man's Monday was 11.2% of the opening weekend. So it's already showing signs of slowing down a bit faster than Ant-Man. Taking this into consideration for the second weekend would give Homecoming a 2nd weekend of (50.9*(10.5/11.2)=)$47.8M if it follows Ant-Man's run after Monday. Another way to arrive at the same number would be if Homecoming's 2nd weekend is 3.89x the first Monday, just like it was for Ant-Man. $47.8M would be a 59.2% drop.

But with only 4 days worth of numbers it's very hard to make any confident predictions. I wouldn't expect it to have a multiplier as good as Ant-Man though, which had the 2nd best multiplier in the MCU, behind only GotG. It needs to show some signs of great legs before I'm going start thinking about a multiplier over 3x.

True it's more appropriate to forecast weekdays number and 2nd weekend number (following Ant-Man) using the Monday number not OW number since I made the comparison with Ant-Man using drop on Monday. However I think the only sign of SMH's front-loadedness is the muted Saturday increase from true Friday, on Sunday it has normal drop from Saturday. And if we take out preview numbers then Ant-Man's 1st Monday is 12.5% of Fri-Sun while SMH's is 12.1%, which aren't too different.

And maybe we can compare SMH with Minions too? Both are sequels of popular franchise, released in first weekend of July, same OW weekend and same 1st Monday. If SMH follows Minion closely then it'll have a bit shorter leg and end up somewhere 330M.

Overall I think somewhere from 325M (Suicide Squad) to 333M (GotG) is good.

Yeah if there's anyone who can shed more light on how this works I'd be interested to read it.

I can't remember where but maybe last week someone mentioned Batman '89 still has the most actual tickets sold of any Batman movie?

I just want to chime in that you can change the Adjusted on Top Right to "Est. Ticket" to get the number of tickets sold/ admission.

For Superhero movie: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/genres/chart/?id=superhero.htm&adjust_yr=1&p=.htm

According to that chart Batman'89 sold 63 million tickets.

 

[spiderman2]

my opinion-and it's an opinion-not written in stone is exactly that-summer weekday-boffo reviews- and a fanboy base that should be flocking to it. If this was the school year i'd feel differently.

Monday was -mediocre at best- it should have blown monday number out. Like I said an opinion

I don't see how Monday was mediocre at best. If you look at that deadline reboot it made more then a lot of movies have made on there first Monday for movies that have came out in July.

 

[gerrym51]

Don;t get me wrong. I think Spider-man homecoming will be a monster overseas.

However just like transformers-although it has much better reviews-I think the general audience sees it as -'What another spider man reboot-.

Monday was similiar in total to marvel films released in may-when school was in session.

this one just doesn't have it in North America for whatever what reason

 

[spiderman2]

To only do 250 though it would have to have even a slightly worse multiple then either amazing Spider-Man 2 and Spider-Man 3 did and considered this movie is considered a much better movie it should have at least a slightly higher multiple then those 2 movies not lower.

 

[Darepool]

Release date will play a factor, even the TASM films didn't have to face this tough of competition right out of the gate. Anyone on the fence about another reboot may have decided on the second weekend, but are immediately given the option of Apes.

This is where the great reviews could lessen the blow, certainly.

 

[iEquinox]

Don;t get me wrong. I think Spider-man homecoming will be a monster overseas.

However just like transformers-although it has much better reviews-I think the general audience sees it as -'What another spider man reboot-.

Monday was similiar in total to marvel films released in may-when school was in session.

this one just doesn't have it in North America for whatever what reason

Monday was not even close to similar to what other MCU movies did in May. Most of those dropped 70-75% from the first Sunday. That would put Homecoming between $7.6-8.7M. But it's $12.2M, which is obviously much higher.

Just saying "I think this will happen", when there's clear signs everywhere that it won't isn't going to convince anyone. You're going to need math and valid comparisons to predict box office, not opinions.

Release date will play a factor, even the TASM films didn't have to face this tough of competition right out of the gate. Anyone on the fence about another reboot may have decided on the second weekend, but are immediately given the option of Apes.

This is where the great reviews could lessen the blow, certainly.

It has a much better release date than TASM2, TASM2 faced tougher competition.

Godzilla made $93M in its 3rd weekend, followed by X-Men: DoFP the weekend after, which made $90M. The weekend after that Maleficent and Million Ways to Die in the West made over $85M combined.

Homecoming won't face competition that strong, or with that much audience overlap. The 2nd weekend is the only one where Homecoming will face tougher competition than TASM2 did.

 

[Darepool]

Homecoming won't face competition that strong, or with that much audience overlap. The 2nd weekend is the only one where Homecoming will face tougher competition than TASM2 did.

I get what your saying, but I was mainly referring to weekend competition, like Apes and Dunkirk in the coming weeks. It would certainly be more ideal if HC at least had another weekend before facing those two.

 

[iEquinox]

I get what your saying, but I was mainly referring to weekend competition, like Apes and Dunkirk in the coming weeks. It would certainly be more ideal if HC at least had another weekend before facing those two.

What do you mean with "weekend competition" and why do you think I'm not talking about the same thing? It looks like Homecoming won't face competition as strong as TASM movies did. TASM even faced TDKR in its 3rd weekend. That will do a lot more damage to a Spider-Man movie than Dunkirk or Apes ever could.

 

[gerrym51]

LOL! Sure i can.

I just did.

I said wait till Sunday.

 

[Flint Marko]

Apes is going to over-perform and take a sizable chunk out of Homecoming this next weekend. Dunkirk will do the same, I think.

 

[metaphysician]

A thought, and as I have so few, I'm putting it in here...

Taking into account that cinema ticket prices are forever changing, isn't it more accurate to gauge the popularity of one movie against another by looking at the number of tickets sold overall?

IMO, not really, because ticket price isn't irrelevant to popularity. A movie that sold 1 million five dollar tickets is not equally popular to a movie that sold 1 million ten dollar tickets, because the latter movie was popular enough to get people to shell out twice as much money to see it. This ignores inflation and the relative value of those dollars, but even then price-per-ticket is a separate issue.

 

[Iceman]

Sounds like pretty horrendous competition for Spidey.

 

[StormC]

Apes is going to over-perform and take a sizable chunk out of Homecoming this next weekend. Dunkirk will do the same, I think.

We'll see. If both Apes and Spidey do well I'll be happy.

Apes is a hard franchise to pin down. Dawn had July pretty much to itself.

 

[Tymminator]

Monday was not even close to similar to what other MCU movies did in May. Most of those dropped 70-75% from the first Sunday. That would put Homecoming between $7.6-8.7M. But it's $12.2M, which is obviously much higher.

Just saying "I think this will happen", when there's clear signs everywhere that it won't isn't going to convince anyone. You're going to need math and valid comparisons to predict box office, not opinions.
It has a much better release date than TASM2, TASM2 faced tougher competition.

Godzilla made $93M in its 3rd weekend, followed by X-Men: DoFP the weekend after, which made $90M. The weekend after that Maleficent and Million Ways to Die in the West made over $85M combined.

Homecoming won't face competition that strong, or with that much audience overlap. The 2nd weekend is the only one where Homecoming will face tougher competition than TASM2 did.

Yep.

Also, at a glance, it's first Monday hold % is better than GotG2 and slightly better than Wonder Woman's. (but yeah I know, they were not released in July, I was just making a note).

 

[JKKS085]

in that case-based on its slowing i think it will be lucky to make 250 million total.

Worst case scenario it gets that much after its 3rd week end.
Should be close to 220M or past it by this week end. Do you really think it'll get lucky if it makes 30M more off of a 50M-ish second week end ?

 

[spider-neil]

I could be wrong but it's a completely different audience for Apes and Dunkirk than for Spider-Man.

 

[DlAMONDZ]

I could be wrong but it's a completely different audience for Apes and Dunkirk than for Spider-Man.

Yea I don't see little kids or anyone under 18 choosing Apes and especially Dunkirk over Spidey

 

[spider-neil]

Yea I don't see little kids or anyone under 18 choosing Apes and especially Dunkirk over Spidey

I'm a Nolan fan but I have next to no interest in Dunkirk. The conclusion to the Apes movie interests me but not even to see it in theatres. Will catch it on Blu ray.

 

[gerrym51]

Worst case scenario it gets that much after its 3rd week end.
Should be close to 220M or past it by this week end. Do you really think it'll get lucky if it makes 30M more off of a 50M-ish second week end ?

I have been wrong before-lol.

However my 250 million point is that it's not roaring to 400 million-maybe 280 total

 

[JOE]

Anything over 800M WW is a win for this movie considering the last 2 didn't break 800. 900 is definitely possible, but will depend on OS numbers. Hopefully China loves Spider-Man!

 

[iEquinox]

$15.2M on Tuesday according to deadline. That's would be a healthy 24.6% jump from Monday. The increase is about the same as GotG2(22.7%), Ant-Man(22.6%) and Wonder Woman(22.0%).

Homecoming as well should keep concession sales churning as well for exhibitors with a second weekend estimated between $50M-$53M, down 55%-57%. The Marvel movie has been posting great daily business with $27.4M alone made between Monday and Tuesday and a running five-day cume of $144.3M.

http://deadline.com/2017/07/war-for...ming-wish-upon-weekend-box-office-1202127211/

Their math doesn't fully check out though:
$15.2M based on the $12.2M Monday, and them saying $27.4M on Monday+Tuesday.
$15.07M based on them saying $144.3M total after 5 days. (144.3-129.23=$15.07M)

 

[iEquinox]

The exact Tuesday number is $15,053,665. Up 23.4% from Monday.
The weekend will give the first real indication of legs. So far it's doing pretty much what you'd expect for a big superhero movie in July. Tomorrow it should do nine and a half million give or take a few 100k if it continues following standard drops.