Homecoming The Box Office Thread

[Skies]

http://deadline.com/2017/07/war-for...man-homecoming-box-office-weekend-1202128838/

Homecoming earned $8.9M taking its first week’s total to $163M.

 

[spiderman2]

So with 163 going into today after this weekend the movie should be around 213.

 

[Ozbridge]

SMH daily change in week 1:

Sat | Sun | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu

-27% | -21.2% | -58.2% | 23.4% | -34.2% | 10%

Ant-Man:

-14.1% | -22.4% | -57.6% | 22.6% | -34.8% | -8.1%

So if SMH continues to follow Ant-Man for 2nd weekend then Fri 13.7M (+54.1%), Sat 18.6M (+35.9%), Sun 14.8% for 47.1M second weekend (60% drop, 210M total)

 

[Blitzkrieg]

If SM:H follows Ant-Man's 2nd weekend drop (-57%), the 2nd weekend for Spidey will be 50.3 million. But with SM:H being more front-loaded and having a superior preview number, I think SM:H lands somewhere between a (58-60)% drop next weekend. That'll be (46.8-49.2) million in 2nd weekend.

 

[gerrym51]

I must point out-wonder womans superior drops where not predicted by the standard formula.

who knows for sure

 

[Nicko-Ray]

Interested to see if second weekend will touch a 60% drop or not. Doubt it though

 

[Iceman]

Hope it can stay in the 50-somethings.

 

[Nicko-Ray]

Hope it can stay in the 50-somethings.

i think the film's still on track to hit $300M domestic though. Gonna be weird with the whole China delay thing but the past two ASM films hit $500M foreign so why shouldn't this?

 

[Iceman]

i think the film's still on track to hit $300M domestic though. Gonna be weird with the whole China delay thing but the past two ASM films hit $500M foreign so why shouldn't this?

Should do at least as well as those overseas. I think having Stark in it will give it a nice boost in certain territories, confirming the MCU link.

 

[StormC]

Looking like Apes is gonna win the weekend. Homecoming will probably land in the 55M range and Apes will get 65-70M, based on Thursday previews.

 

[Nicko-Ray]

Should do at least as well as those overseas. I think having Stark in it will give it a nice boost in certain territories, confirming the MCU link.

Agreed.

Looking like Apes is gonna win the weekend. Homecoming will probably land in the 55M range and Apes will get 65-70M, based on Thursday previews.

$55M would be great. Anything over $50M would be but sites are tracking $47M at the lowest. But yeah, safe to say APES will take the throne this weekend.

 

[Iceman]

At least there are worse things to lose to.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

http://deadline.com/2017/07/war-for-the-planet-of-the-apes-spiderman-homecoming-box-office-weekend-1202128838/

Meanwhile, Sony/Marvel’s Spider-Man: Homecoming is estimated to bring in $14M today, -72%, on its way to a $46M-$47M second place take and a 10-day of $210M. As of this minute, it’s expected to stay in second place for the weekend.

 

[Faith_Cassidy]

14M is not bad but its a little early for weekend estimates. We'll see where that number is by the end of the day/early Saturday morning.

 

[slimshady247]

At least there are worse things to lose to.

 

[Ozbridge]

SMH daily change in week 1:

Sat | Sun | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu

-27% | -21.2% | -58.2% | 23.4% | -34.2% | 10%

Ant-Man:

-14.1% | -22.4% | -57.6% | 22.6% | -34.8% | -8.1%

So if SMH continues to follow Ant-Man for 2nd weekend then Fri 13.7M (+54.1%), Sat 18.6M (+35.9%), Sun 14.8% for 47.1M second weekend (60% drop, 210M total)

Meanwhile, Sony/Marvel’s Spider-Man: Homecoming is estimated to bring in $14M today, -72%, on its way to a $46M-$47M second place take and a 10-day of $210M. As of this minute, it’s expected to stay in second place for the weekend.

Ok is Peter Parker Scott Lang's clone???

 

[Nicko-Ray]

http://deadline.com/2017/07/war-for-the-planet-of-the-apes-spiderman-homecoming-box-office-weekend-1202128838/

Darn, I'm being nitpicky but really wanted SMH to hit $220M by end of weekend. Hope it comes close.

 

[The Joker]

I've just been in the Dunkirk thread, and the early feedback is extremely positive. I think that and Apes will take a bite out of SMH's profits, though hopefully not too big of a bite.

 

[I Am The Knight]

Ok is Peter Parker Scott Lang's clone???

Marvel is secretly giving us a Clone Saga just to spite Avi Arad

 

[StormC]

There's no sugar coating it, 46M would be a not-so-great drop. One of the biggest (if not the biggest) MCU second weekend drops. Hope it's at least 50M.

 

[The Caped Knight]

Homecoming is a success because after two Spidey film, this one has more of a faithful appeal. family and kids will still go see it.

 

[iEquinox]

There's no sugar coating it, 46M would be a not-so-great drop. One of the biggest (if not the biggest) MCU second weekend drops. Hope it's at least 50M.

A 60% drop really wouldn't be that bad. Keep in mind that we're in the middle of summer. A movie can have bigger weekend drops and still have pretty good legs because of summer weekdays. 46M would be a 60.7% drop, which is exactly the same as CA: TFA. TDKR dropped even more, with 61.4%. Both of those were July movies as well, and both of those had multipliers between 2.7 and 2.8.

A 60% drop might not be very good, but it isn't really a cause for concern either. After the big previews and frontloaded Friday/Saturday, it has had pretty standard holds, so it looks like it could have pretty good legs after the second weekend, just like TDKR and CA: TFA. Let's not act like it's the end of the world just yet.

I was already expecting that some people would overreact if it dropped about 60%, because if you just compare a movie with other movies that were released outside of summer you might conclude that it has supbar legs. But summer = bigger weekend drops. It's what helped GotG beat Spider-Man(2002)'s multiplier even though GotG dropped 55.3% in August vs Spider-Man's 37.8% 2nd weekend drop in May.

We won't really know just how good (or bad) the legs are until after the 3rd and 4th weekends. I don't think the holds over the last few days point toward huge drops going forward. Judging a movie based solely on the percentage it drops on the seconds weekend while completely ignoring any context will give you the wrong idea most of the time. It's even been having similar holds to Ant-Man over the last few days. If it keeps following Ant-Man's day to day drops, that would get it $47M this weekend and a final total of $350M. I'm not expecting it to go quite that high in the end, but it does show that a big drop now doesn't mean big numbers are unreachable.

 

[hafizbat]

Maybe one silver lining of SMH not killing the BO is that Sony would think twice about going forward with their weird spin offs. I can only imagine that SMH having a spectacular BO run would make them even more overzealous with the Spider-Man brand.

 

[Iceman]

I've just been in the Dunkirk thread, and the early feedback is extremely positive. I think that and Apes will take a bite out of SMH's profits, though hopefully not too big of a bite.

It's facing up against a lot of potential quality right there. Hope it can survive.

 

[Juan1193]

According to Rth Spidey made 13.2 million today. Heading for a 43-46 million 2nd weekend or a 60%+ drop.