Homecoming The Box Office Thread

[Repulsor Blast]

big drop with such good reviews and word of mouth.. at least we know this was the ceiling. imagine if the film was bad or mediocre.. oy.

unless sony spoiling too much with the trailers is to blame.

i hope it reaches 800m worldwide. we need the deal to continue as long as possible.

 

[First Avenger]

Dang that drop hurts. How's it doing WW?

 

[MyDudeSpidey]

Yikes. Pretty big drop. I expected this film with all the good WOM and whatnot to be performing much better by this point.

 

[StormC]

It would be a bummer if a Spider-Man movie with critical acclaim loses to BVS domestically.

 

[spiderman2]

There's no sugar coating it, 46M would be a not-so-great drop. One of the biggest (if not the biggest) MCU second weekend drops. Hope it's at least 50M.

Man that sucks just a few days ago we thought we were maybe looking at like a 50-55 second weekend. A 60% or worse drop is really a sine of how much the last 3 Spider-Man movies have hurt and shows just how the brand has got to be rebilled and how the next movie should do much better.

 

[AlluAllu]

This not being the hugest box office hit has another silver lining. They probably wont dare go crazy with the budget next time, meaning that the sequel should have a healthy dose of high school stuff and small scale action that worked so well this time.

 

[spiderman2]

This not being the hugest box office hit has another silver lining. They probably wont dare go crazy with the budget next time, meaning that the sequel should have a healthy dose of high school stuff and small scale action that worked so well this time.

I want bigger action thought it was really like the one thing that was missing big time in the movie.

 

[spiderman2]

According to Rth Spidey made 13.2 million today. Heading for a 43-46 million 2nd weekend or a 60%+ drop.

Of course this started a lot higher then amazing Spider-Man 2 but for what it is worth amazing Spider-Man 2's second weekend was about 35.5m and its second Friday was around 10.5m. A 43 second weekend would be like a 63% drop that would be really bad cant even imagion what it would be like if the movie got so so/bad reviews.

 

[Faith_Cassidy]

SMH daily change in week 1:

Sat | Sun | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu

-27% | -21.2% | -58.2% | 23.4% | -34.2% | 10%

Ant-Man:

-14.1% | -22.4% | -57.6% | 22.6% | -34.8% | -8.1%

So if SMH continues to follow Ant-Man for 2nd weekend then Fri 13.7M (+54.1%), Sat 18.6M (+35.9%), Sun 14.8% for 47.1M second weekend (60% drop, 210M total)

Deadline's updated estimate has it at 47.4M so you were pretty close. I'd love to see it do a little better on Sat/Sun to reach 50M but 47M isn't bad...it's an ok number, especially given its competition.

Sony/Marvel’s Spider-Man: Homecoming is estimated to file $47.4M in weekend 2 which is lower than the industry expected, but its 60% slide is on par with the second weekend declines of Amazing Spider-Man 2 (-61%) and Spider-Man 3 (-62%). Homecoming‘s second weekend dollar-wise is the third best after Spider-Man ($71.4M) and Spider-Man 3 ($58.1M). Thanks to its solid business during the week, the pic’s $210M+ running domestic cume by Sunday will outstrip the lifetime U.S./Canada take of the previous title Amazing Spider-Man 2 ($202.9M). Through Sunday, Homecoming will be pacing 12% behind Spider-Man 3 which finaled at $336.5M domestic. RelishMix reports continued wattage on Homecoming on social with the view counts for its top 25 spots on YouTube still in the 95k-200k range per day which is strong for the superhero genre. Robert Downey Jr. is still adding a consistent +24k new fans a day on Instagram and continues to plug the movie with Stan Lee. Tom Holland is also hot on Instagram with 2.6M followers and adding 74k new fans per day, all week long.

http://deadline.com/2017/07/war-for...man-homecoming-box-office-weekend-1202128838/

 

[iEquinox]

A 60% drop really wouldn't be that bad. Keep in mind that we're in the middle of summer. A movie can have bigger weekend drops and still have pretty good legs because of summer weekdays. 46M would be a 60.7% drop, which is exactly the same as CA: TFA. TDKR dropped even more, with 61.4%. Both of those were July movies as well, and both of those had multipliers between 2.7 and 2.8.

A 60% drop might not be very good, but it isn't really a cause for concern either. After the big previews and frontloaded Friday/Saturday, it has had pretty standard holds, so it looks like it could have pretty good legs after the second weekend, just like TDKR and CA: TFA. Let's not act like it's the end of the world just yet.

I was already expecting that some people would overreact if it dropped about 60%, because if you just compare a movie with other movies that were released outside of summer you might conclude that it has supbar legs. But summer = bigger weekend drops. It's what helped GotG beat Spider-Man(2002)'s multiplier even though GotG dropped 55.3% in August vs Spider-Man's 37.8% 2nd weekend drop in May.

We won't really know just how good (or bad) the legs are until after the 3rd and 4th weekends. I don't think the holds over the last few days point toward huge drops going forward. Judging a movie based solely on the percentage it drops on the seconds weekend while completely ignoring any context will give you the wrong idea most of the time. It's even been having similar holds to Ant-Man over the last few days. If it keeps following Ant-Man's day to day drops, that would get it $47M this weekend and a final total of $350M. I'm not expecting it to go quite that high in the end, but it does show that a big drop now doesn't mean big numbers are unreachable.

Me right now:

What were you expecting? 400M+ DOM after a 117M OW? People think it's "disappointing" if it doesn't beat BvS domestic gross??

Everything seems to be going pretty much as expected. Not sure why people are overreacting.

 

[spider-neil]

Far as I'm concerned, beating 700m worldwide is a win. It would finally stop the rot since SM3 of diminishing returns with every movie.
It's the first Spider-Man MCU movie out of the gate.
Home video will give everyone who skipped this version the opportunity to see this in the comfort of their own homes. Then you'll have the push of Infinity War so more people will come out for the sequel. Relax people.

 

[hawkflame]

I wonder how much of this has to do with War for the Planet of the Apes being so well received. GotG2 and WW had the fortune of not only getting great reviews but also going up against bombs in the domestic market in their second weekends.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I wonder how much of this has to do with War for the Planet of the Apes being so well received. GotG2 and WW had the fortune of not only getting great reviews but also going up against bombs in the domestic market in their second weekends.

WOTPOTA isn't doing well at all. It'll fail to reach the OW numbers of Dawn & it seems that even Rise will out-gross War in terms of the OW.

If War follows the internal multiplier of Dawn, it'll collect 52 million for the weekend. Which will be less than the 54 million that Rise did back in 2011. It's not looking good for War at all, so I'm not sure if War had any major effect on SM:H's numbers this weekend plus the demographic for the respective films are very different. War was never going to affect Spidey all that much.

 

[Iceman]

Shame about the drop. I think the TASM2 fallout is still playing a part but if the next film is as good we will start to see gains again.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

SMH daily change in week 1:

Sat | Sun | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu

-27% | -21.2% | -58.2% | 23.4% | -34.2% | 10%

Ant-Man:

-14.1% | -22.4% | -57.6% | 22.6% | -34.8% | -8.1%

So if SMH continues to follow Ant-Man for 2nd weekend then Fri 13.7M (+54.1%), Sat 18.6M (+35.9%), Sun 14.8% for 47.1M second weekend (60% drop, 210M total)

If that 13.2 million Friday number holds, it'll mean a 48.3% increase from Thursday. So SM:H is already running behind Ant-Man for the corresponding date. If SM:H does rebound on Saturday with a similar increase to that of Ant-Man, it'll make close to 18 million. Also a familiar decrease (-20%) on Sunday will give 14.4 million.

So the 2nd weekend of SM:H will be something like (13.2+18+14.4) = 45.6 million (-61%).

 

[ironwez20]

So this movie is t making a lot of money?

 

[Blitzkrieg]

So this movie is making a lot of money?

Yes, it is. Also Deadline predicted a 13.6 million Friday & 47.4 million for the weekend. That's a good sign.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

So this movie is t making a lot of money?

It's doing fine. It's just playing like a bog-standard MCU film. It will make plenty of money, but doesn't look like it will be anything special from a box office run point of view.

Honestly, given how much sequels and reboots have struggled this summer (outside of GotG2), Homecoming having a just "average" run is a victory IMO.

 

[iEquinox]

So this movie is t making a lot of money?

It's doing very well, but it seems like most people in here don't have much of an idea how box office really works and are taking a standard drop as a bad sign. Reading these last few pages you'd think it would be lucky to make $250M or something.

Let's make a quick comparison to Man of Steel:

Homecoming was $11.7M behind Man of Steel after the opening weekend. After the second weekend, Man of Steel was at 210.08M after the second Sunday. According to the most recent estimates, Homecoming will be slightly ahead of that after Sunday. So Homecoming will already have pretty much completely closed that gap in just 7 days time. Man of Steel finished with $291M, so it looks like Homecoming should make it to at least $300M domestic, with a good chance of making more. $300-350M should be the realistic range. And that's a great number by all measures. It looks to be the number 3 biggest movie of the whole summer domestically, with a chance of finishing even higher worldwide.

People in here are just overreacting over nothing because they don't know what the second weekend drop means. Either that or they had ridiculously high and unrealistic expectations for Homecoming's final box office.

 

[gerrym51]

Maybe one silver lining of SMH not killing the BO is that Sony would think twice about going forward with their weird spin offs. I can only imagine that SMH having a spectacular BO run would make them even more overzealous with the Spider-Man brand.

I agree with this. the characters Sony is using are unknown to General audiences-I SAID GENERAL AUDIENCES.

they will have hard time selling them to anyone besides hard core comics fanboys.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

It's doing very well, but it seems like most people in here don't have much of an idea how box office really works and are taking a standard drop as a bad sign. Reading these last few pages you'd think it would be lucky to make $250M or something.

People in here are just overreacting over nothing because they don't know what the second weekend drop means. Either that or they had ridiculously high and unrealistic expectations for Homecoming's final box office.

Yup. CA:TFA dropped 61% in it's 2nd weekend back in 2011 and that was also a July opener. SM:H is showing standard July CBM drops so far. It should easily sail over 300 million at the domestic BO .

 

[Spider-Ock]

Even though the movie has been well-received by audiences and critics alike, it was never going to have the lightning-in-the-bottle multipliers of WW, SM1, and TDK. A 57-60% drop is par for the course for superhero films, which traditionally do tend to be front-loaded. A 290-320 mil domestic total is nothing to scoff at. In fact, you could put it in the win column based on the relatively controlled budget of the movie alone.

Also, the film is going to garner not insignificant profits from its product placement, so I don't really see where the issue is.

 

[Ozbridge]

So if SMH continues to follow Ant-Man for 2nd weekend then Fri 13.7M (+54.1%), Sat 18.6M (+35.9%), Sun 14.8% for 47.1M second weekend (60% drop, 210M total)

Word from the other Asgardian is 13.6M, so still quite close to this number.

I told you that Peter Parker is Scott Lang's clone

 

[iEquinox]

Word from the other Asgardian is 13.6M, so still quite close to this number.

I told you that Peter Parker is Scott Lang's clone.

Let's hope he is. If it follows Ant-Man's drops that would get it to pretty much exactly $350M. I think that's a realistic number for the high end for Homecoming, since Ant-Man is one of the leggiest recent superhero movies, I'm not expecting Homecoming to go much higher that that.

On the other hand I think the floor should be about $300M. That's what it would make if it follows Man of Steel's drops. Spider-Man should definitely be able to beat those drops, since Man of Steel had mixed reviews and word of mouth, a much more frontloaded first 10 days, significantly stronger competition and it lost its theaters are an incredibly fast rate for such a big movie(Only 501 theaters left during the 7th weekend). Spider-Man has the upper hand on Man of Steel in pretty much every category you can think of, so it should at the very least be able to match those drops, with a very good chance of beating them. I don't see it going below $300M in any scenario.

$300-350M seems like the realistic range to me.

 

[gerrym51]

seems kind of sad that that spider-man-who is conceivably the 2nd or 3rd most popular and widely known superhero in the world is clinging to Ant-Man drops-who is the 200th most widely known comic book here(an exageration-but you get the drift)-lol