Homecoming The Box Office Thread

[spiderman2]

So I think one of the reason people are felling disappointed in the movie is that after its first day people thought it was going to make like 120-125m to only make 117m. That is like 3-8m less then people thought. Then this second weekend up threw like wed it was sounding like we may get 50-53m to only get like 46. So like 4-7 less then we thought. So both weekends the amount we got was lower then people thought it would be like heading into the weekend.

 

[spider-neil]

Hopefully the tread of the overseas box office outstripping the domestic box office for Spider-Man movies continues.

 

[spiderman2]

Hopefully the tread of the overseas box office outstripping the domestic box office for Spider-Man movies continues.

That is another reason I think 800 should be a easy lock. The movie with it being at 470m and probly getting around 130 from Japan and china that would get it to 600 and the movie should have around 100m left USA if not more to get it to 700 and with the moving looking to do better OS then USA I think 125 more OS to go with those other numbers is likely and that would get it to 825. Most likely I can see it doing even better. I think it has a good chance to do like 110 more USA and like 140 OS to add 250 to its current 470 to get it to 720+ Japan and China to get it to 850. I think that is not to much to ask for 900 may be unlikely though.

 

[FlareKnight]

I don't know where exactly this will fall in the box office, but should be good. Still a lot of money to be made in NA. Just feel like after seeing Apes people will head back more for Spidey and I don't think anything coming out in the next while will really take a bite out of it. Could be wrong, hardly a box office expert of any sort.

I'm just glad they made a good movie that I want to see multiple times. Not something I felt after TASM2.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

In Germany, SM:H opened at No 2 behind DM3 which is in it's 2nd/3rd weekend with 3.7 million. That's not good. Germany has not been a good place for CBMs this summer. TASM2 opened to 5.5 million and finished with 15.9 million.

Almost similarly, Italy has not been kind to CBMs this summer. SM:H opened with 3 million and it'll barely cross 8 million while TASM2 opened with 5.7 million and ended with 13 million.

In France, SM:H opened with 6 million. TASM2 opened with 11 million and ended it's run at 22.7 million.

In Russia, SM:H opened to 7.8 million while TASM2 opened with 9.3 million. TASM2 finished with 20.9 million.

While Europe isn't too hot for Spidey atm, Asia is going great guns. SM:H is smashing records in South Korea and India. It opened well and has great WOM. It's already the biggest Spidey movie ever in India.

 

[Ozbridge]

I haven't seen much of a difference between the WOM for SMH and WW, for example. Again, the real difference lies in the latter being a first and the former being a reboot of a reboot. If this were the first spidey film or even the first reboot, I doubt we'd be having this conversation.

Actually in my experience WW gets much more attention and better WOM than SMH. On websites WW's made headlines for WEEKS after OW, in BOT discussion about SMH's OW was dwarfed by WW's SIXTH weekend (everyone was like "OMG WW has amazing hold against direct competition"), even MCU-friendly site like KJ WW was also received very positively. In real life I see WW is like SW:TFA or Hamilton or BatB, like it's a cultural event that you HAVE to see to participate in conversation with friends or colleagues. Tw and IG are also full of stories like "My mother who goes to movie theaters 3 times in her life are asking me to take her to WW", etc.

Whereas SMH is just like other MCU movies, the only thing fresh is that it has a young cast. After seeing SMH on opening day I told my friends "It's great fun. I recommend if you're MCU fan or have money + time for it", I want to see once more, but I'll wait for 1 month for Superday/ discount. For WW I bought tickets for my family a day after and have seen it in theaters 4-5 times with my friends.

Tl;dr: There're good movies like Ant-Man, Doctor Strange or SMH. There're cultural events like WW. And sure if this was the first time ever we see Spider-Man in theaters then it would probably made 400M too, but it isn't.

In Germany, SM:H opened at No 2 behind DM3 which is in it's 2nd/3rd weekend with 3.7 million. That's not good. Germany has not been a good place for CBMs this summer. TASM2 opened to 5.5 million and finished with 15.9 million.

Almost similarly, Italy has not been kind to CBMs this summer. SM:H opened with 3 million and it'll barely cross 8 million while TASM2 opened with 5.7 million and ended with 13 million.

In France, SM:H opened with 6 million. TASM2 opened with 11 million and ended it's run at 22.7 million.

In Russia, SM:H opened to 7.8 million while TASM2 opened with 9.3 million. TASM2 finished with 20.9 million.

DM as always been hot sell overseas so it's always expected for most movies to lose OS to DM. OS gross this year (and WW too) DM will take 4th place behind F8, TLJ and BatB. I think SMH can get to 850M and be the 2nd highest grossing Spider-Man worldwide, which is more than enough.

 

[spider-neil]

I think SMH will kill on home video. Serious re-watch value.
Then the people who skipped this will come out to see the next version in theatres. Which directly follows IW.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Actually in my experience WW gets much more attention and better WOM than SMH. On websites WW's made headlines for WEEKS after OW, in BOT discussion about SMH's OW was dwarfed by WW's SIXTH weekend (everyone was like "OMG WW has amazing hold against direct competition"), even MCU-friendly site like KJ WW was also received very positively. In real life I see WW is like SW:TFA or Hamilton or BatB, like it's a cultural event that you HAVE to see to participate in conversation with friends or colleagues. Tw and IG are also full of stories like "My mother who goes to movie theaters 3 times in her life are asking me to take her to WW", etc.

Whereas SMH is just like other MCU movies, the only thing fresh is that it has a young cast. After seeing SMH on opening day I told my friends "It's great fun. I recommend if you're MCU fan or have money + time for it", I want to see once more, but I'll wait for 1 month for Superday/ discount. For WW I bought tickets for my family a day after and have seen it in theaters 4-5 times with my friends.

Tl;dr: There're good movies like Ant-Man, Doctor Strange or SMH. There're cultural events like WW. And sure if this was the first time ever we see Spider-Man in theaters then it would probably made 400M too, but it isn't.



DM as always been hot sell overseas so it's always expected for most movies to lose OS to DM. OS gross this year (and WW too) DM will take 4th place behind F8, TLJ and BatB. I think SMH can get to 850M and be the 2nd highest grossing Spider-Man worldwide, which is more than enough.

I agree that WW has become a cultural phenomenon. However, personally I couldn't pay to watch WW a second time. Frankly, I think it is overrated. Both GotG2 and SM:H are movies I would watch multiple times and enjoyed far more.

I am hopeful for Justice League and will be the only future DCEU movie where I watch it on day one. BvS killed the streak and I refused to pay full price to watch Suicide Squad and Wonder Woman. In fact I didn't even see Suicide Squad and I payed a grand total of 50 cents to see Wonder Woman.

Back on topic, TASM and TASM2 both made over $500 million overseas so I am quite confident SM: H should have no trouble making that amount given the high quality of the film.

If that happens SM: H only needs to make another $50 million for Marvel to pay a smaller percentage to Sony. I am hoping for a $800M worldwide total.

 

[spider-neil]

I agree that WW has become a cultural phenomenon. However, personally I couldn't pay to watch WW a second time. Frankly, I think it is overrated. Both GotG2 and SM:H are movies I would watch multiple times and enjoyed far more.

I am hopeful for Justice League and will be the only future DCEU movie where I watch it on day one. BvS killed the streak and I refused to pay full price to watch Suicide Squad and Wonder Woman. In fact I didn't even see Suicide Squad and I payed a grand total of 50 cents to see Wonder Woman.

Back on topic, TASM and TASM2 both made over $500 million overseas so I am quite confident SM: H should have no trouble making that amount given the high quality of the film.

If that happens SM: H only needs to make another $50 million for Marvel to pay a smaller percentage to Sony. I am hoping for a $800M worldwide total.

The scene where she climbs up the ladder is frankly iconic and inspirational. One of THE moments in CBM history.

 

[NotNickFury]

I don't know where exactly this will fall in the box office, but should be good. Still a lot of money to be made in NA. Just feel like after seeing Apes people will head back more for Spidey and I don't think anything coming out in the next while will really take a bite out of it. Could be wrong, hardly a box office expert of any sort.

Dunkirk and Atomic Blonde could easily be contenders as well, one by virtue of being a Nolan film, and the other being touted as a female John Wick and done BY the director of John Wick. Not to mention Charlize Theron's name recognition.

Though I don't see the people who saw Apes immediately going back to Spider-Man when they have just as much reason to re-watch Apes, not to mention all the other new films coming out in the next few weeks.

 

[Venom'sDad]

www.cnbc.com/2017/07/16/superheroes-are-almost-single-handedly-saving-the-us-box-office.html

 

[spider-neil]

Spider-Man having the biggest second week drop in history made the UK news.
Slow new day.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Dunkirk and Atomic Blonde could easily be contenders as well, one by virtue of being a Nolan film, and the other being touted as a female John Wick and done BY the director of John Wick. Not to mention Charlize Theron's name recognition.

Atomic Blonde won't do very well. John Wick had better reviews and a better marketing campaign behind it and it still didn't make much at the BO. SM:H has nothing to worry about after the 3rd weekend. Dunkirk+Valerian+Girls Trip is the real test & if SM:H holds reasonably well in that weekend, then it'll have a smooth late July and August run.

 

[JOE]

I 800M WW still in play? Haven't been following as close as I should be.

 

[spider-neil]

I 800M WW still in play? Haven't been following as close as I should be.

Depends on the overseas market.

 

[iEquinox]

I 800M WW still in play? Haven't been following as close as I should be.

If it doesn't underperform in China it should get there without much trouble.

 

[gerrym51]

If it doesn't underperform in China it should get there without much trouble.

As you know i am not a fan of spider-mans domestic run-however even i think it's going over 800 million and china WILL be a big market for it

 

[Faith_Cassidy]

Actually in my experience WW gets much more attention and better WOM than SMH. On websites WW's made headlines for WEEKS after OW, in BOT discussion about SMH's OW was dwarfed by WW's SIXTH weekend (everyone was like "OMG WW has amazing hold against direct competition"), even MCU-friendly site like KJ WW was also received very positively. In real life I see WW is like SW:TFA or Hamilton or BatB, like it's a cultural event that you HAVE to see to participate in conversation with friends or colleagues. Tw and IG are also full of stories like "My mother who goes to movie theaters 3 times in her life are asking me to take her to WW", etc.

Whereas SMH is just like other MCU movies, the only thing fresh is that it has a young cast. After seeing SMH on opening day I told my friends "It's great fun. I recommend if you're MCU fan or have money + time for it", I want to see once more, but I'll wait for 1 month for Superday/ discount. For WW I bought tickets for my family a day after and have seen it in theaters 4-5 times with my friends.

Tl;dr: There're good movies like Ant-Man, Doctor Strange or SMH. There're cultural events like WW. And sure if this was the first time ever we see Spider-Man in theaters then it would probably made 400M too, but it isn't.

I'm not sure how this contradicts anything I said. I already pointed that WW is doing better because it's a first of its kind. I agree that it's a cultural event...hence, its great holds. What is also true, however, is that SMH was getting great buzz both leading up to and following it's release. (It trended on twitter multiple times, including after it was first released on Thursday.) This pretty much explains why it opened to 117 million...over 20 million more than the last spidey movie. The fact that it dropped considerably more than WW has less to do with it not having great WOM and more to do with WW attracting moviegoers who wouldn't normally see a CBM and SMH having to contend with "yet another spidey movie" baggage. This goes back to my point about perception or "spidey fatigue" being the issue, not the quality of the movie itself.

 

[spiderman2]

What would be a good amount for its 2nd Monday today?

 

[kedrell]

I know quite a few people who aren't going to see this because they have Spidey fatigue and would rather wait to watch it when it drops on streaming/blu-ray

Hollywood has been cannibalizing it's self with these big blockbusters for a few years now.

The blockbuster season is incredibly competitive. The big studios drop a major release almost every week in the summer.

There was a lot more open space in June which WW ended up capitalizing on. It was 3 weeks until serious direct competition(Cars3 isn't that and the Mummy was a joke that could be seen a mile away) rolled around with the TF5 movie(and that franchise is in heavy decline domestically). May also had more room(other than GOTGV2, everything there was a dud...and it was pretty easy to see that ahead of time as stuff like POTC5 is in the same boat as TF5).

 

[Tony Stark]

Spidey would be between TDKR and Days of Future Past.

BVS had a worse 2nd week drop than Fan4stick? I never realized that! then again BVS had a decent opening and Fan4stick had a terrible drop off a pathetic opening.

 

[TheVileOne]

Fans underestimated how badly the brand was damaged by Sony and The Amazing Spider-Man films.

 

[Arach Knight]

A movie making a billion dollars is more rare than you might think.

Not really. The 30 highest grossing movies of all time have made over $1 billion each, and of those 30, 27 of them are from 2003 or later (the exceptions being The Phantom Menace, Titanic, and Jurassic Park). In fact, 12 of the 30 films to cross $1 billion have been released in the past three years. If this were the early 2000s, your assertion would be true, but $1 billion has quickly become the new target for tentpole films. Also worth consideration is the fact that the aforementioned data is unadjusted for inflation.

This is why Sony rebooted Spider-Man again. AMS2 grossed $700 million, a figure that was once considered remarkable. But for Sony, the failure to hit $1 billion was enough of a disappointment to spur a reboot. Many critics considered Batman v Superman a disappointment because it only crossed $ 800 million rather than $1 billion.

I suppose there is room to argue whether or not it is realistic for film studios and critics to expect tentpole films to hit $ 1 billion, but for now, $1 billion grosses are becoming far more common.

 

[spider-neil]

Fans underestimated how badly the brand was damaged by Sony and The Amazing Spider-Man films.

And SM3.

 

[Arach Knight]

Fans underestimated how badly the brand was damaged by Sony and The Amazing Spider-Man films.

I think the issue is more about franchise fatigue than anything else. ASM grossed $759 million while ASM2 grossed $709 million despite negative reviews and poor word-of-mouth. But the last Spider-Man franchise had a film in 2014. MCU Spider-Man was introduced in 2016 via Captain America: Civil War. Two years isn't enough time for audiences to have fully moved on from the prior franchise.

Warner Bros. waited four years before debuting a new Batman, and Fox brilliantly used time travel to pass the baton from the older X-Men to a younger group of X-Men. By comparison, Sony dropped the ball because of their desperation to build a shared cinematic universe. But they aren't alone in making such poor decisions, as Universal has shown similar levels of desperation in their mismanaged efforts to create their so called "Dark Universe" between Dracula Untold, and the recent failure of the Mummy reboot.

Oh how I long for the 80s and 90s. Film making is being ruined by cinematic universes.