Homecoming The Box Office Thread

Predict the Box Office result.

  • Over $1 billion

  • $900 million - $1 billion

  • $800 mil - $900 mil

  • $700 mil - $800 mil

  • $600 mil - $700 mil

  • $500 mil - $600 mil

  • $400 mil - $500 mil

  • $300 mil - $400 mil

  • $200 mil - $300 mil

  • Below $200 million

  • Over $1 billion

  • $900 million - $1 billion

  • $800 mil - $900 mil

  • $700 mil - $800 mil

  • $600 mil - $700 mil

  • $500 mil - $600 mil

  • $400 mil - $500 mil

  • $300 mil - $400 mil

  • $200 mil - $300 mil

  • Below $200 million

  • Over $1 billion

  • $900 million - $1 billion

  • $800 mil - $900 mil

  • $700 mil - $800 mil

  • $600 mil - $700 mil

  • $500 mil - $600 mil

  • $400 mil - $500 mil

  • $300 mil - $400 mil

  • $200 mil - $300 mil

  • Below $200 million


Results are only viewable after voting.
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How is it damaged? This was a classic case where you had two well reviewed movies going head to head and both of them cut into their take, it's not that hard to figure out. War barely performed better than Rise did, yet the critics were saying it was the best in the series.

This summer was packed with Releases. Wonder Woman and Guardians benefited from the fact that most of the May and June releases were disappointments or outright bombs, and most of their competition had poor reviews.
 
Fans underestimated how badly the brand was damaged by Sony and The Amazing Spider-Man films.

Well , I think it was damaged by the last three films being mediocre to outright bad.

Spiderman is very much were Batman was after the Burton/Schumacer films and the first Nolan film.

BB while a success, didn't set the world on fire, and fans tend to forget that. Its was critically praised and made a bundle on dvd and video but it wasn't anywhere near the cultural phenom that Batman 89 was or even had the hype of Batman Forever.

It was The Dark Knight which really brought Batmania back.

I always considered this one as lying the foundation to rebuild the franchise on the way Batman Begins and Casino Royale did for theirs.
 
Not really. The 30 highest grossing movies of all time have made over $1 billion each, and of those 30, 27 of them are from 2003 or later (the exceptions being The Phantom Menace, Titanic, and Jurassic Park). In fact, 12 of the 30 films to cross $1 billion have been released in the past three years. If this were the early 2000s, your assertion would be true, but $1 billion has quickly become the new target for tentpole films. Also worth consideration is the fact that the aforementioned data is unadjusted for inflation.

This is why Sony rebooted Spider-Man again. AMS2 grossed $700 million, a figure that was once considered remarkable. But for Sony, the failure to hit $1 billion was enough of a disappointment to spur a reboot. Many critics considered Batman v Superman a disappointment because it only crossed $ 800 million rather than $1 billion.

I suppose there is room to argue whether or not it is realistic for film studios and critics to expect tentpole films to hit $ 1 billion, but for now, $1 billion grosses are becoming far more common.
BvS and TASM movies all had budgets much higher than Homecoming, so they obviously needed to make a lot more money than Homecoming to be successful.
$800M+ will be a huge success. That would make its worldwide gross bigger than the first GotG on pretty much the same budget. And I don't remember anyone saying GotG underperformed at the box office.

$1B was never the target. If they thought it would make $1B+ the budget would probably have been more in line with TASM/BvS than GotG/TWS/IM2/DS
 
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What was the last MCU movie (or superhero movie in general really) to have a well-reviewed franchise film come out the week after it?
 
Fans underestimated how badly the brand was damaged by Sony and The Amazing Spider-Man films.

It could be overload as well, regardless of quality.

3 different Spider-Man actors, 3 different reboot series since 2002, only 3 years since the last reboot, all might be a little much for audiences.
 
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Yeah I felt this was going to top out between 700-800 million due to reboot fatigue and tough competition. I just hope it clears the bar set by either ASM.
 
If it's reviews were great. If Marvel actually picked Holland and made the film

what other reason can it be but to many spider man reboots in 15 years or it's doing exactly as it should be.

World War Z launched MOS second weekend. always competition
 
Barring a complete disaster from this point forward, Sony should be pleased with the box office. They likely won't have a bigger movie this year and their plans for the franchise pre-MCU were guaranteed to fail. Hopefully Sony is smart enough to realize all of this, but you never know with the folks who green lit the Emoji movie.
 
Well , I think it was damaged by the last three films being mediocre to outright bad.

Spiderman is very much were Batman was after the Burton/Schumacer films and the first Nolan film.

BB while a success, didn't set the world on fire, and fans tend to forget that. Its was critically praised and made a bundle on dvd and video but it wasn't anywhere near the cultural phenom that Batman 89 was or even had the hype of Batman Forever.

It was The Dark Knight which really brought Batmania back.

I always considered this one as lying the foundation to rebuild the franchise on the way Batman Begins and Casino Royale did for theirs.

Yep yep a big reason that dark knight did so great is that BB got people back into batman.

It could be overload as well, regardless of quality.

3 different Spider-Man actors, 3 different reboot series since 2002, only 3 years since the last reboot, all might be a little much for audiences.

Its about quality if this was the first reboot and the last 3 Spider-Man movies had been better it would be a lock for a billion easily.
 
BvS and TASM movies all had budgets much higher than Homecoming, so they obviously needed to make a lot more money than Homecoming to be successful.
$800M+ will be a huge success. That would make its worldwide gross bigger than the first GotG on pretty much the same budget. And I don't remember anyone saying GotG underperformed at the box office.

$1B was never the target. If they thought it would make $1B+ the budget would probably have been more in line with TASM/BvS than GotG/TWS/IM2/DS

Yeah, this. Despite being Spider-Man, Homecoming has a small-ball feel and it's not exactly the type of movie I would expect to do a billion. Those movies are always huge spectacle in the form of CGI action, explosions, etc. Quality is actually less of a factor than spectacle when it comes to big BO bucks I'd say, looking at how Transformers, Pirates, F&F, Jurassic World, Suicide Squad etc make killings at the BO.
 
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Barring a complete disaster from this point forward, Sony should be pleased with the box office. They likely won't have a bigger movie this year and their plans for the franchise pre-MCU were guaranteed to fail. Hopefully Sony is smart enough to realize all of this, but you never know with the folks who green lit the Emoji movie.

I think the best case scenario is that they're pleased (or relieved, I should say) enough to let Spidey stay long-term with the MCU while being more cautious about pressing forward with their bizarre villain movie ideas. I can only imagine that Homecoming doing amazing at the box office would have made them even more overzealous with the brand. They already seemed to be getting drunk off the good vibes of having Spidey in the MCU. Hope this is a wake-up call for them.
 
If you want to know what Sony actually thinks you probally will know if they cancel the spidey villian spinoffs.

I think even if they are 'well reviewed' movies the spin-offs will be 'tough sells' to general audiences.
 
What was the last MCU movie (or superhero movie in general really) to have a well-reviewed franchise film come out the week after it?

Hellboy II: The Golden Army was thumped by TDK which released a week later. Although it's more of a CBM and less of a traditional Superhero movie.

There is also TMNT immediately following GOTG in August '14. TMNT won the 2nd weekend only to have GOTG win back the crown next weekend. GOTG was such a crazy hit.
 
I think the issue is more about franchise fatigue than anything else. ASM grossed $759 million while ASM2 grossed $709 million despite negative reviews and poor word-of-mouth. But the last Spider-Man franchise had a film in 2014. MCU Spider-Man was introduced in 2016 via Captain America: Civil War. Two years isn't enough time for audiences to have fully moved on from the prior franchise.

Warner Bros. waited four years before debuting a new Batman, and Fox brilliantly used time travel to pass the baton from the older X-Men to a younger group of X-Men. By comparison, Sony dropped the ball because of their desperation to build a shared cinematic universe. But they aren't alone in making such poor decisions, as Universal has shown similar levels of desperation in their mismanaged efforts to create their so called "Dark Universe" between Dracula Untold, and the recent failure of the Mummy reboot.

Oh how I long for the 80s and 90s. Film making is being ruined by cinematic universes.

Franchise fatigue is a myth nothing more its about how good the movie is. If franchise fatigue was really a issue we wouldn't have like 24 bond movies, we wouldn't have like fast and the furios 9 or what ever coming out in the next year or so, we wouldn't have so many sequles over all in the first place. When movies makes less then he movie before in a franchise it is normally a case of the movie being a worse movie then the movie before. Yes you may have some movies like Spider-Man 3 were the movie made more WW then Spider-Man 2 but that was because Spider-Man 2 was great and from trailers Spider-Man 3 looked like it was going to be even better so the hype was crazy. Yes Spider-Man 3 made a lot of money but it had bad legs and that was because it was not that good. If it had been good the movie would have easily done a billion. If not for all the hype created by Spider-Man 2 then Spider-Man 3 would have done much worse.

Not really. The 30 highest grossing movies of all time have made over $1 billion each, and of those 30, 27 of them are from 2003 or later (the exceptions being The Phantom Menace, Titanic, and Jurassic Park). In fact, 12 of the 30 films to cross $1 billion have been released in the past three years. If this were the early 2000s, your assertion would be true, but $1 billion has quickly become the new target for tentpole films. Also worth consideration is the fact that the aforementioned data is unadjusted for inflation.

This is why Sony rebooted Spider-Man again. AMS2 grossed $700 million, a figure that was once considered remarkable. But for Sony, the failure to hit $1 billion was enough of a disappointment to spur a reboot. Many critics considered Batman v Superman a disappointment because it only crossed $ 800 million rather than $1 billion.

I suppose there is room to argue whether or not it is realistic for film studios and critics to expect tentpole films to hit $ 1 billion, but for now, $1 billion grosses are becoming far more common.

Yep a billion is not what it used to be any more because of inflation, bigger internation market and 3d. A billion back in like the early 2000's is more like a movie doing 1.3-1.5 billion or something. When a movie in a franchise makes less money then ones before when ticket prices are higher, bigger market and have 3d when the ones before didn't that is a really bad thing. Takes asm2 it made around 80 million less then Spider-Man 2 the lowest of the first 3 Spider-Man movies even thought it had 10 years worth of inflation on its side and bigger market and 3d to add to its money. You used to have maybe 1 billion movie a year now you have like multiple. In a few more years the average like blockbuster is going to be like a billion. Just think about this for a 2nd when the first Spider-Man movie came out it was the first movie to do 100+ OW now the record is almost 250m.

Not only that but if you look at how Spider-Man has done WW compard to other movies that came out the same year the amazing Spider-Man movies did a lot worse and a amazing Spider-Man 3 would have been like a 600 million movie most likely meaning another drop.

Hear is how Spider-Man movies ranked WW for the year they came out.

2002 Spider-Man 3erd behind LOTR and Harry potter
2004 Spider-Man 2 again 3erd behind LOTR and Shrek 2
2007 Spider-Man 3 again 3erd behind Harry potter and one of the Pirates movies.

Now on the other hand lets look at amazing Spider-Man movies
2012 amazing Spider-Man 7th
2014 amazing Spider-Man 2 finished 9th
If we saw amazing Spider-Man 3 it could have follow out of the top 10.

Spider-Man HC you look at it at best is going to finish below BATB,TFATF,STAR WARS 8 and that would mean 4th at best. I say best because it may not catch GOTG 2.
 
2 reboots :oldrazz:

I consider the Raimi films a reboot of this:


spidermantoei.png
 
What was the last MCU movie (or superhero movie in general really) to have a well-reviewed franchise film come out the week after it?

Off the top of my head after 2010 these films have big (Apes-level) releases in 2nd weekend:

Man of Steel
IM3
X-Men DoFP
ASM
ASM 2
Logan

These are based on memories so I'd suggest you check again.
 
That's 1 million less than the estimates. 62% drop! Ouch! Hopefully it rebounds this week...
 
Sunday dropped 55.5% from last Sunday.

Will be interesting to see how the week on week drops will be for the next set of weekdays. The WoW drop should slowly get lower throughout the week.

$5.43M is the number to beat on Monday if it wants to start reducing the WoW drop on Monday.
 
2 very well received films that could be doing more and now with Dunkirk on the horizon! Hopefully this will give all the studios a kick to plan their releases a bit better. Not all of these have to be summer movies.
 
Sunday dropped 55.5% from last Sunday.

Will be interesting to see how the week on week drops will be for the next set of weekdays. The WoW drop should slowly get lower throughout the week.

$5.43M is the number to beat on Monday if it wants to start reducing the WoW drop on Monday.

Not quite sure what that means but looking at amazing Spider-Man 2 its second Monday the movie made around 2.25 and its 3erd weekend the movie made around 16.8m. As long has the movie dosnt drop by like 64% or worse then the movie will make more on its 3erd weekend then amazing Spider-Man 2 did. I know its early being that it is only Monday but have there been any guess for its 3erd weekend?
 
So after 2 weeks Spider-Man HC has made 208270314 after 2 weeks amazing Spider-Man had made 178650351 in comparison. So Home coming is 29619963 ahead after 2 weeks. Now of course amazing Spider-Man came out on a Tuesday not a Thursday so that means after 2 weekends amazing Spider-Man 2 has been out 2 days longer then HC so really its like HC is even more ahead at this point in time then that.
 
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