Captain Marvel The Captain Marvel box office prediction thread

[Iceman]

There is a lot of hype for this movie. The trailer on Weibo (China's Twitter) has more views than Black Panther, Ant-Man 2, Aquaman & Venom.

Weibo is (one of) the most popular social media site in China.

More than Aquaman and Venom? Wow!

 

[Yowza]

I thought this article was interesting:

Disney Will Take a $150 Million Hit to Stream 'Captain Marvel'
Disney Will Take a $150 Million Hit to Stream 'Captain Marvel'
Disney’s betting big on Captain Marvel, not only in theaters, but as it prepares to launch its new streaming service.

Chairman Bob Iger says the upcoming film, starring Brie Larson, will be the first to skip streaming on Netflix after its theatrical run. It will instead debut on Disney+, the company’s upcoming proprietary streaming platform.

That’s going to cost it a big chunk in licensing. And, when added with other Disney films that will release this year, Disney estimates it will cut operating income by about $150 million.

Iger’s calling that an investment in Disney’s future, and betting big that Disney+ will find a substantial audience in a world where several major streaming services already exist.

“It’s almost the equivalent of deploying capital to build out our theme parks,” Iger said. “This is a bet on the future of this business.”

Disney has played Disney+ fairly close to the vest, but plans to show it off to investors at a meeting in April. The family-friendly service, which will include original movies and TV shows from Disney’s Marvel, Pixar, and other brands, is scheduled to debut later this year.

What’s unclear is whether it will allow other platforms to continue to show Disney properties. Some shows have built their followings thanks to binge viewing on Netflix, raising questions on whether the company is best served by putting them behind its own walled garden. Iger didn’t directly address this, but indicated that Disney was open to the risk of guarding its entire catalog of both films and television shows.

“In terms of making decisions about where content goes, since we are betting on this direct-to-consumer business long-term we obviously need to fuel it with intellectual property,” he said.

On a separate note, Black Widow reportedly was delayed from the end of February to principal photography in early June through August. They're eyeing up their financial situation post-Infinity War to see how it'll influence production is my guess.

 

[liesse00]

With February being a weak month this year things are shaping up pretty well for this to break out. It should help jump start the box office again.

 

[Iceman]

With February being a weak month this year things are shaping up pretty well for this to break out. It should help jump start the box office again.

Good to hear. Hopefully it can take full advantage.

 

[Kuwolski]

"I'd expect Captain Marvel to land somewhere between $610m ($200m domestic and $410m overseas) and $870m ($330m domestic and $540m overseas)."

'Captain Marvel': The Realistic Box Office Prediction

Seems pretty reasonable at this point.

 

[Binary10]

"I'd expect Captain Marvel to land somewhere between $610m ($200m domestic and $410m overseas) and $870m ($330m domestic and $540m overseas)."

'Captain Marvel': The Realistic Box Office Prediction

Seems pretty reasonable at this point.

It's making more

 

[Kuwolski]

It's making more

If that early OW projection holds up, certainly.

 

[Electrolyte]

It'll probably hit 550-600mil WW. Not hating CM, but it just doesn't have the appeal of other superhero movies. Just looking at other box office prediction threads here, there are way more posts on others compared here. I'm not basing my prediction on the number posts on threads but I just feel that not a lot of people are interested in CM.

When I watch the trailers, there's no "Wow" factor, it's just meh. Brie Larson doesn't have charisma. Maybe Marvel chose the wrong actress for the role. She just seems uninterested.

It's not gonna flop, but it also will not rake in big box office money.

But then again, I could be wrong.

 

[Binary10]

It'll probably hit 550-600mil WW. Not hating CM, but it just doesn't have the appeal of other superhero movies. Just looking at other box office prediction threads here, there are way more posts on others compared here. I'm not basing my prediction on the number posts on threads but I just feel that not a lot of people are interested in CM.

When I watch the trailers, there's no "Wow" factor, it's just meh. Brie Larson doesn't have charisma. Maybe Marvel chose the wrong actress for the role. She just seems uninterested.

It's not gonna flop, but it also will not rake in big box office money.

But then again, I could be wrong.

It's making way more then 600 million.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

It'll probably hit 550-600mil WW. Not hating CM, but it just doesn't have the appeal of other superhero movies. Just looking at other box office prediction threads here, there are way more posts on others compared here. I'm not basing my prediction on the number posts on threads but I just feel that not a lot of people are interested in CM.

When I watch the trailers, there's no "Wow" factor, it's just meh. Brie Larson doesn't have charisma. Maybe Marvel chose the wrong actress for the role. She just seems uninterested.

It's not gonna flop, but it also will not rake in big box office money.

But then again, I could be wrong.

I think you'll find that with most MCU movies' box office prediction threads, they're typically not the most popular threads for that film before it opens and they really don't start popping until closer to opening. For example, Doctor Strange's thread was at 9 pages only a week before its release but grew to over 30 by the time it ended. GOTG Vol. 2 was at 9 pages only about 5-6 days before its release and it went on to do around 35 pages of discussion. CM is already at 9 pages and it's still got a few weeks before its release in March.

 

[Zyraquis]

Who needs trade projections when the number of posts in a thread of a forum of a niche site with a more or less constant user base is such a good box office barometer?

 

[Electrolyte]

I think you'll find that with most MCU movies' box office prediction threads, they're typically not the most popular threads for that film before it opens and they really don't start popping until closer to opening. For example, Doctor Strange's thread was at 9 pages only a week before its release but grew to over 30 by the time it ended. GOTG Vol. 2 was at 9 pages only about 5-6 days before its release and it went on to do around 35 pages of discussion. CM is already at 9 pages and it's still got a few weeks before its release in March.

I've never noticed that, thanks for pointing that out.

Who needs trade projections when the number of posts in a thread of a forum of a niche site with a more or less constant user base is such a good box office barometer?

Like what I said "I'm not basing my prediction on the number posts on threads but I just feel that not a lot of people are interested in CM."


I just feel that if Marvel got another actress to play CM, it would be more appealing. Don't get me wrong, I think Brie Larson is a good actress, I think she got an Oscar or something. I just feel that she doesn't fit as Captain Marvel.

Like how Gal Gadot is perfect for Wonder Woman or RDJ is spot on as Iron Man. Brie just doesn't fit.

 

[Robin's Gambit]

I've never noticed that, thanks for pointing that out.



Like what I said "I'm not basing my prediction on the number posts on threads but I just feel that not a lot of people are interested in CM."


I just feel that if Marvel got another actress to play CM, it would be more appealing. Don't get me wrong, I think Brie Larson is a good actress, I think she got an Oscar or something. I just feel that she doesn't fit as Captain Marvel.

Like how Gal Gadot is perfect for Wonder Woman or RDJ is spot on as Iron Man. Brie just doesn't fit.

How do you know if you haven't seen the movie? Watching out of sequence half a minute or a minute and thirty second clips is different than digesting a two hour film from start to finish.

 

[Zyraquis]

I don’t get it. First you made a prediction that’s pretty lowball then suggested the number of posts in the thread doesn’t indicate appeal in the movie as compared to others then said that not predicting based on the posts in the thread. One could only assume that they are somewhat logically related since they are in successive sentences in the same paragraph. I mean it’s not like I can assume people will flock to see an unappealing movie that they aren’t interested if that’s not part of implied prediction in the lowball figures that I could only see as a prediction. Btw I’m not trying to understand what you were trying to say here.

Oh I’m not that overly keen about the movie eithet though it’s just my personal feeling not basing or basing then unbasing on something. Perhaps when the movie comes out and if people start singing praise I will be more Keen like I was with Black Panther.

 

[Electrolyte]

How do you know if you haven't seen the movie? Watching out of sequence half a minute or a minute and thirty second clips is different than digesting a two hour film from start to finish.

Like what I said, it's not appealing to me. I'm a casual movie watcher, not a superfan nor a fanboy. I'm just saying that, based on watching the trailers it doesn't appeal to me, a "casual movie watcher". Maybe the marketing for the movie is off and Brie Larson doesn't have the charisma to change my mind.

Can't a guy have his own opinion or feeling about the film?

I'm just one guy who doesn't think CM will not make a lot in the box office.

Please don't hate me.

 

[Electrolyte]

I don’t get it. First you made a prediction that’s pretty lowball then suggested the number of posts in the thread doesn’t indicate appeal in the movie as compared to others then said that not predicting based on the posts in the thread. One could only assume that they are somewhat logically related since they are in successive sentences in the same paragraph. I mean it’s not like I can assume people will flock to see an unappealing movie that they aren’t interested if that’s not part of implied prediction in the lowball figures that I could only see as a prediction. Btw I’m not trying to understand what you were trying to say here.

Oh I’m not that overly keen about the movie eithet though it’s just my personal feeling not basing or basing then unbasing on something. Perhaps when the movie comes out and if people start singing praise I will be more Keen like I was with Black Panther.

Yeah man, like you, I'm not really in to this movie. I was just looking at post counts on threads because I was curious to see if people are talking about CM.

I just don't hear or see the buzz regarding this movie. Well in my part of the world at least.

600mil is still a big number though.

 

[Zyraquis]

I can see the buzz is there though. The trade has a 160m plus opening weekend prediction in the US alone. It just hasn’t buzzed me yet. But the low end of your prediction would make it among smallest earners among all MCU -and- DCEU movies and even it might not flirt with a loss that’s quite a bad BO for a movie like this. Even the totally unambitious Antman 2 already clocked in more than your high end range just saying.

 

[Electrolyte]

I can see the buzz is there though. The trade has a 160m plus opening weekend prediction in the US alone. It just hasn’t buzzed me yet. But the low end of your prediction would make it among smallest earners among all MCU -and- DCEU movies and even it might not flirt with a loss that’s quite a bad BO for a movie like this. Even the totally unambitious Antman 2 already clocked in more than your high end range just saying.

Man, I'm not really an expert on numbers. I just based my prediction on my feeling. I've felt Wonder Woman should have reached a billion but it didn't. I also felt that Antman and the Wasp should have gotten more but it didn't. Same with Venom, I did predict it's gonna make 800mil but after watching it I really felt it's gonna reach a billion, but it didn't as well.

As you can see, my BO predictions is waaay off. lol

 

[hopeless]

So would you say how people are reacting to Goose resembles the reaction to Wonder Woman in BvS...

 

[Iceman]

So would you say how people are reacting to Goose resembles the reaction to Wonder Woman in BvS...

Amongst cats, sure.

 

[Electrolyte]

Goose? Cats?

Edit: Finally found out who Goose the Cat is. lol
This lady explained who the cat is. The cat will probably boost CM's box office.

 

[Micromind]

Anywhere between 700 to 800 mil. I suppose fans won't see this multiple times (except MCU fans, who are not be underestimated), Dumbo which is coming 3 weeks after CM will also take away a chunk of audience.

Fans are going to save their money to see Shazam (depending on RT score and wom) and Avengers: Endgame many times. I don't think this movie will have a great multiplier, it's going to be front-loaded, the movie will have to make most of it's collections in first two/three weeks.

 

[Binary10]

Goose? Cats?

Edit: Finally found out who Goose the Cat is. lol
This lady explained who the cat is. The cat will probably boost CM's box office.

She taking a lot of thing outta context

 

[Binary10]

Anywhere between 700 to 800 mil. I suppose fans won't see this multiple times (except MCU fans, who are not be be underestimated), Dumbo which is coming 3 weeks after CM will also take away a chunk of audience.

Fans are going to save their money to see Shazam (depending on RT score and wom) and Avengers: Endgame many times. I don't think this movie will have a great multiplier, it's going to be front-loaded, the movie will have to make most of it's collections in first two/three weeks.

Not sure about that to be honest. I Think not sure mcu fans will go see this movie, I think it's shaping up to be an mcu solo event.

 

[Binary10]

Like what I said, it's not appealing to me. I'm a casual movie watcher, not a superfan nor a fanboy. I'm just saying that, based on watching the trailers it doesn't appeal to me, a "casual movie watcher". Maybe the marketing for the movie is off and Brie Larson doesn't have the charisma to change my mind.

Can't a guy have his own opinion or feeling about the film?

I'm just one guy who doesn't think CM will not make a lot in the box office.

Please don't hate me.

And that's okay to have that opinion, just how it's my opinion I think your going to be dead wrong. On the movie not making a lot in the box office.