The Captain Marvel box office prediction thread

[Limonade]

Making sure I got this right,

1. Brie Larson doesn’t smile
2. Brie looks to be miscast
3. The Trailers have been awful
4. WW already happened, female lead novelty has worn off.

So someone want to explain to me how this is tracking well over 100 mil opening weekend? Guess there’s no such thing as bad publicity

I don't think it's ever been about the actor or trailers. People are genuinely curious what role Captain Marvel plays in the larger scheme of the MCU. They also want to see where Marvel is going with the overall story with Avenger's Endgame... if there's any.

And Marvel has been both critically and generally pleasing to audience so you got that too. Plus, you mean to tell me, that people who stayed for the end credits of the 2 billion dollar earning Avengers movie--aren't slightly intrigued about all the setup to Captain Marvel that may very well continue in Avenger's Endgame? (Just like BP did for A:IW) I mean... regardless of you think about the marketing and cast... Marvel has done an excellent job setting stuff up and then satisfyingly pay it off.

And even if the movie was front-loaded like BvS… and story-wise--it turns out like crap, like BvS, due to the Marvel Studio branding... a 100 million opening weekend is already a lock. Unless, Thanos' snap affected our reality as well... it's still going to make money.

 

[Moridin]

The overlap with Endgame is a significant factor with this one.

I don't think comparisons to Ant-Man a relevant, for that^ reason, but also because also because the scope of CM is much bigger, & because major MCU players like Fury show up (neither Ant-Man had a major MCU character unless you count Peggy's cameo), & because, lets be honest, Fleck/Boden are way better directors than Reed.

I don't think BP is a great comparison for certain reasons, reasons that CM can't possibly match, the perception of being "the FIRST XYZ" type Superhero movie has already been snagged by Wonder Woman.
But BP also had the IW overlap, which was obviously major.

If it wasn't for the Endgame overlap, & the Fury featured role, I'd be saying Dr Strange-type numbers would be my prediction, BUT with that stuff you have to go higher (further, faster ). So I think Ragnarok/SMHomecoming type numbers are more appropriate. Though it could definitely stray into $1bn territory from there given the Endgame factor.

Quality of the movie pending of course. If the movie delivers what I think it will, and I think based on what I've seen it looks solid, then something like $850m-$1bn-ish is the range for this.

 

[Heretic]

Captain Marvel takes place decades before Avengers: Endgame.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Captain Marvel takes place decades before Avengers: Endgame.

It's leading into Endgame and will likely answer why Fury decided to finally call CM up at the end of IW.

 

[Heretic]

Yeah, more than likely there will be a post-credit scene that bridges the gap (I'm still surprised at how many people don't even watch the post credits scenes and aren't even aware that Fury contacted someone).

Who knows...maybe it will be a surprise and do a billion...but at the moment the general audience interest doesn't seem to be there, after some underwhelming trailers, to take it above the level of an Ant-Man and The Wasp or something like that (which would still make it a mega-hit).

 

[Webfoot Hero]

 

[MbJ]

But gUisE nOBody WaNTs to sEe it.

 

[Sony23]

So much for being Marvel's first bomb

‘Captain Marvel’ long-range tracking points to massive $140M+ opening weekend

 

[Abudefduf]

but at the moment the general audience interest doesn't seem to be there, after some underwhelming trailers

I hated the first trailer but it broke records. It's one of the few MCU trailers with over 1 million likes.

Opinion of a few thousand nerds on the internet =/= opinion of the GA.

 

[Spider-Aziz]

I used to expect this will be the fourth solo MCU movie earning $1 billion, but I decided to lower my expectations a bit.

 

[KBX]

Yeah it’s going to need a 150+ mil opening weekend Dom. with doing excellent in China at a shot at a billion world wide

 

[Heretic]

I hated the first trailer but it broke records. It's one of the few MCU trailers with over 1 million likes.

Opinion of a few thousand nerds on the internet =/= opinion of the GA.

I don't really keep up much with what nerds are saying. I'm talking anecdotal evidence, for sure...but the non-nerd circles I travel in didn't like the trailers and don't seem overly hyped for the film. Again...totally anecdotal. It'd be nice if this movie came out and broke box office records (though I don't think that the trailers are very good either and really the only reason I'm going to see this in theaters is because Endgame comes out before this will be on video)...we'll see.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

So much for being Marvel's first bomb

‘Captain Marvel’ long-range tracking points to massive $140M+ opening weekend

Wow. Much more than I was thinking. Looks like my 700+ guess will be a bit low...

 

[Fallen]

I hated the first trailer but it broke records. It's one of the few MCU trailers with over 1 million likes.

Opinion of a few thousand nerds on the internet =/= opinion of the GA.

And the second trailer is also one of the most-liked trailers of all time.

 

[Silver Surfer]

All the negative stuff about the trailers was just nerd echo-chamber BS. The study that BOT did had 89% viewers interested in watching CM, only beat by Endgame.

 

[Fallen]

Most-liked Hollywood film trailers of all time:

1. Avengers: Infinity War - Trailer 1 (3.4M)
2. Avengers: Endgame - Trailer 1 (3.1M)
3. Avengers: Infinity War - Trailer 2 (1.7M)
4. Venom - Trailer 1 (1.4M)
5. Pokémon: Detective Pikachu - Trailer 1 (1.3M)
6. The Lion King - Trailer 1 (1.2M)
7. Captain Marvel - Trailer 1 (1M)
8. Venom - Trailer 2 (784K)
9. Captain Marvel - Trailer 2 (766K)

 

[flickchick85]

Wow, maybe Venom's success shouldn't have been such a surprise after all, lol.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

Can't wait for this to blow up the box office.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Most-liked Hollywood film trailers of all time:

1. Avengers: Infinity War - Trailer 1 (3.4M)
2. Avengers: Endgame - Trailer 1 (3.1M)
3. Avengers: Infinity War - Trailer 2 (1.7M)
4. Venom - Trailer 1 (1.4M)
5. Pokémon: Detective Pikachu - Trailer 1 (1.3M)
6. The Lion King - Trailer 1 (1.2M)
7. Captain Marvel - Trailer 1 (1M)
8. Venom - Trailer 2 (784K)
9. Captain Marvel - Trailer 2 (766K)

Yeah I'm done even entertaining the notion that the CM trailers weren't well received.

 

[Shuri]

But gUisE nOBody WaNTs to sEe it.

I think people mistake fans concerns for general audience, they don't care that Carol didn't smile or about sjw complaints, they just want a good movie. Someone posted about CM trailer getting a million likes and people kept ignoring that and insisting no one likes the trailers.

 

[Shuri]

I voted 900 million. With that ow prediction it could do 400+ domestic and 500 international. I think a billion could be in play.

 

[Heretic]

So...of the 9 most Liked trailers of ALL TIME, 5 of the movies aren't even out yet, and the other 4 were released in the past 9 months or so.

That may just mean that more and more people are using the Youtube Like button. This movie may be a billion dollar success, but I'm not sure that this is a believable predictor of that. It's an interesting statistic though.

 

[abcfsk]

I would be carefull getting too bullish on numbers - could be setting the movie up for a 'disappointment' even if it performs great. I think Dr Strange performance is what we should aim for.

 

[Iceman]

So...of the 9 most Liked trailers of ALL TIME, 5 of the movies aren't even out yet, and the other 4 were released in the past 9 months or so.

That may just mean that more and more people are using the Youtube Like button. This movie may be a billion dollar success, but I'm not sure that this is a believable predictor of that. It's an interesting statistic though.

True. It’s only comparable against films coming out in the same year or year before really. Same goes for trailer views. The records are totally skewed towards very recent releases.

 

[Iceman]

Most-liked Hollywood film trailers of all time:

1. Avengers: Infinity War - Trailer 1 (3.4M)
2. Avengers: Endgame - Trailer 1 (3.1M)
3. Avengers: Infinity War - Trailer 2 (1.7M)
4. Venom - Trailer 1 (1.4M)
5. Pokémon: Detective Pikachu - Trailer 1 (1.3M)
6. The Lion King - Trailer 1 (1.2M)
7. Captain Marvel - Trailer 1 (1M)
8. Venom - Trailer 2 (784K)
9. Captain Marvel - Trailer 2 (766K)

Good that both CM trailers made the list.