The Captain Marvel box office prediction thread

[flickchick85]

I don't have any delusions about it performing anything like BP since it can't have that "cultural moment" factor, but I think a $150m+ opening weekend seems like a reasonable expectation at this point. Especially as I suspect it will be closely interlinked with the Infinity War saga and either have been set up by the end of Infinity War or serve as a direct lead-in to the MCU's "grand finale" with A4, or both. Either way, I don't expect to be as much of a "standalone" as Black Panther, for better or worse.

It might also get another boost simply from the 8 month MCU-free gap that precedes it, considering we haven't gone that long without an MCU film in a while. People should be hungry for their Marvel fix by then.

 

[Iceman]

I don't have any delusions about it performing anything like BP since it can't have that "cultural moment" factor, but I think a $150m+ opening weekend seems like a reasonable expectation at this point. Especially as I suspect it will be closely interlinked with the Infinity War saga and either have been set up by the end of Infinity War or serve as a direct lead-in to the MCU's "grand finale" with A4, or both. Either way, I don't expect to be as much of a "standalone" as Black Panther, for better or worse.

It might also get another boost simply from the 8 month MCU-free gap that precedes it, considering we haven't gone that long without an MCU film in a while. People should be hungry for their Marvel fix by then.

Are you expecting over $400m domestic final? I think BP has moved up the MCU baseline for all films as the first Avengers did and if IW really delivers on everyone’s wildest expectations we could be in different territory by the time these later films roll around. Things seem to get more exciting for the MCU’s prospects all the time!

 

[flickchick85]

I don't think anything BP has done should be factored into Marvel's "baseline." It's a phenom really, an anomaly. I expect CM will get somewhere between $350-400m domestically.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I would use Doctor Strange as a likely base line for where I see Captain Marvel performing. Somewhere in the 650-700 range WW. With strong WOM, maybe could get up to 750-800. BP is an event. We should not expect any other solo to do that, LOL!

 

[Webfoot Hero]

I'm just starting the baseline for any MCU film at $600 million and hoping it goes above that. I don't think Captain Marvel will be as big of a potential cultural phenomenon as BP so I think anything close to Dr. Strange's BO performance would be good.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

I'd like to think that Captain Marvel can at least do WW numbers. The opening weekend will definitely be bigger than WW's and if the film clicks with women then the legs will be solid.

 

[KBX]

Try to get $90 mil to 100. After Carol kicks serious ass in IW part 2, her sequel will do much more

 

[kedrell]

Anyone else think they are missing a golden opportunity to boost the movie by introducing the character in IW? Look how well CW worked out for BP.

 

[dyl1dyl]

I'm guessing a tentative 800 mil+. I think it will benefit greatly from being the film just before Avengers 4 as well as the MCU branding. Brie Larson is also quite a star. If the film is actually good (like at least better half of MCU good) could easilt hit 1 bill

 

[KevTravels]

It should be at least $700 million. After Infinity War, at least 750

 

[Pink Matters]

Anyone else think they are missing a golden opportunity to boost the movie by introducing the character in IW? Look how well CW worked out for BP.

BP was going to do big numbers even if he hadn't been in CW, imo, that movie was hotly anticipated by those that don't even follow the MCU. Now CM would totally benefit being in A:IW, is where I agree. Primarily because not many know who she is still, so I'm hoping for a solid post-credit scene at least.

 

[kedrell]

Me too(about the post credits scene, that is).

 

[Leo Zelinsky]

800 minimum

 

[kedrell]

Looks like we don't have to worry:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=23Wt81bjoTg&t=330s

I'm changing my prediction to $400M DOM and $1B WW.

 

[Kev4000]

I go with 700.
Wonder Woman was the first and that will hurt a cultural Impact.

 

[Iceman]

The more IW entanglements/hints the bigger CM can get. People are going to be on a huge MCU high after Ragnarok/BP/IW and well up for anything linked to Avengers 4 where CM will likely have an important role.

 

[Iceman]

I don't think anything BP has done should be factored into Marvel's "baseline." It's a phenom really, an anomaly. I expect CM will get somewhere between $350-400m domestically.

BP is a phenom sure. I'm not talking about that aspect though. I'm talking just about it helping the MCU get that little bit bigger as all the best MCU films have done. For me every Avengers, Guardians, TWS, CW, Ragnarok etc have moved up the baseline for new films by some small amount each time, so that now when we get a film from a new character, the MCU gives that film a progressively higher minimum than it would have had as a standalone. I think the likes of Ant Man and Dr Strange have benefited and CM will benefit even more given how many more good films have come out since.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

I can't wait to follow the box office for this because I truly believe it's going to be huge. How huge? Don't know yet.

 

[Iceman]

I can't wait to follow the box office for this because I truly believe it's going to be huge. How huge? Don't know yet.

Hopefully enough to instantly guarantee 2 more films.

 

[Uncanny1]

X-Men: Dark Phoenix - February 14th, 2019
Captain Marvel - March 8th, 2019

So is Fox trying to screw Marvel Studios one last time before they leave? This would definitely harm Captain Marvel. Both of them have skulls in it.

 

[Zarex]

X-Men: Dark Phoenix - February 14th, 2019
Captain Marvel - March 8th, 2019

So is Fox trying to screw Marvel Studios one last time before they leave? This would definitely harm Captain Marvel. Both of them have skulls in it.

Losing the Skrulls may be the reason for the delay.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

X-Men: Dark Phoenix - February 14th, 2019
Captain Marvel - March 8th, 2019

So is Fox trying to screw Marvel Studios one last time before they leave? This would definitely harm Captain Marvel. Both of them have skulls in it.

I don't think it's that big of a deal. That's like 3 weeks in between, which is more than enough time for it to not be a major factor.

 

[kedrell]

Especially since XM: DP isn't going to be some BP-style, 'suck all the oxygen out of the room' phenom. 3 weeks in the dead of winter is plenty of time. I guarantee it won't still be making $40M the weekend CM comes out.

 

[Playco Armboy]

Especially since XM: DP isn't going to be some BP-style, 'suck all the oxygen out of the room' phenom. 3 weeks in the dead of winter is plenty of time. I guarantee it won't still be making $40M the weekend CM comes out.

The way you phrased this post was pretty funny, as if it was to say X-Men: Dark Phoenix was already going to be a hugely successful movie and it was just a matter of toning down exaggeration by comparing it to Black Panther.

Apocalypse flopped as far as I know. I have Dark Phoenix opening at $60m and sustaining 60% back-to-back drops (assuming poor critical reception, which sounds likely given the delays) over each weekend, to be making just under $10m in its third week. By the time Captain Marvel comes out, it might be making $5m domestically for that specific weekend.

So yeah, X-Men isn't doing a thing to hurt Carol's prospects.

 

[NHawk19]

This is coming out the right time of year. There's a big gap between Ant-Man. Demand for A4 will start getting pent up, and this should have strong ties. However, Wonder Woman was the female Superhero event movie.

It'll do better than say Dr. Strange ($677) but I think Ragnarok ($854), is expecting too much. $700-750 is probably the right number.