Captain Marvel The Captain Marvel box office prediction thread

[InCali]

They were anxiously waiting for 80% 2nd weekend drop, poor souls. I wonder what they will do next.

Whine like me when I listen to the President?

 

[Smurphftw]

I actually didn't see Solo in theaters just because I simply didn't have time to get it in with all that was going on last spring. I had a choice between it and Deadpool 2. I chose the Merc with a Mouth. Had it come out this past December instead, I would have gone.

A personal theory of mine (admittedly based entirely on speculation) is if they had stuck with the original directors and didnt waste money on reshooting 80% of it, then released the movie when there less competition, it would have at least been modestly profitbale.

You mean like those ridiculous graphs in the Last Jedi box office thread?

I didn't follow that one that closely. What was ridiculous about them specifically?

 

[Lilbaz]

I don't think they realize how dumb they actually are. To them, there's no way a movie starring a female superhero could be this successful. It's obvious it's an "SJW" conspiracy or something. Obviously everyone is lying about this movie being a success because reasons.

If the movie fail, they win, if the movie is a success, well they can just say everything is fabricated and they win.

They're not dumb. They are making money from clicks. The people that are dumb are the ones that disagree with them but click on them anyway. If people stopped watching or listening then they probably wouldn't say controversial stuff. I doubt half even believe what they are saying.

 

[Patrick77]

I've never really looked into the details, but I believe that's basically how it works. Clicks, subscribers, views, and so on, can lead to revenue from advertising on a particular channel, and perhaps other sources.

Of course, it's possible to do something in that structure that is successful and not troll-ish, but one can immediately see how that might lead to this doubling down on irrationality, simply because people are clicking on it.

 

[Lilbaz]

I've never really looked into the details, but I believe that's basically how it works. Clicks, subscribers, views, and so on, can lead to revenue from advertising on a particular channel, and perhaps other sources.

Of course, it's possible to do something in that structure that is successful and not troll-ish, but one can immediately see how that might lead to this doubling down on irrationality, simply because people are clicking on it.

Think a lot of people saw their traffic increase greatly if they put social justice or sjw in the title of their videos. Then we had tlj and people who made videos about it also saw their traffic increase massively. So now you get a load of videos trying to criticise films and add an element of sjw to it to make money. The silly thing is that people who are totally opposed to the viewpoint shown on the videos then watch them. Just click not interested.

This is not to say that there aren't people out there that feel that there is an element of social justice at work and are pissed off with it. Just that this whole thing is blown out of proportion. People love a moan on the internet. About everything. Add in bots and trolls just trying to wind up people it's a bit of a mess.

 

[Mysteryman]

A personal theory of mine (admittedly based entirely on speculation) is if they had stuck with the original directors and didnt waste money on reshooting 80% of it, then released the movie when there less competition, it would have at least been modestly profitbale.


I didn't follow that one that closely. What was ridiculous about them specifically?

Your Solo theory is possible.But Lucasfilm didn't feel that the humor in the first cut was working.
Unfortunately, they gambled and lost.

 

[Naglfar]

Update from Rth over at BOT:

DOM Saturday numbers late estimate: $28.7M-$29.2M

DOM WE estimate: ~$68M

OS WE estimate: $120M-$124M

WW after 2nd weekend estimate: ~$760M-$765M

 

[Smurphftw]

Update from Rth over at BOT:

DOM Saturday numbers late estimate: $28.7M-$29.2M

DOM WE estimate: ~$68M

OS WE estimate: $120M-$124M

WW after 2nd weekend estimate: ~$760M-$765M

Nice. After tomorrow it will cross 750 million and finally become profitbale (hahahaha)

 

[Fallen]

WW after 2nd weekend estimate: ~$760M-$765M

Wow. Captain Marvel will outgross Guardians of the Galaxy, Deadpool and (probably) Wonder Woman next week.

 

[Iceman]

Update from Rth over at BOT:

DOM Saturday numbers late estimate: $28.7M-$29.2M

DOM WE estimate: ~$68M

OS WE estimate: $120M-$124M

WW after 2nd weekend estimate: ~$760M-$765M

I had said $760m after the news of China's numbers falling harder than expected (otherwise would have gone with $780m). The good thing is that even if the China well dries completely very soon, those overseas numbers will still have many big weekends left in them.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Update from Rth:

30m Saturday.

 

[Fallen]

Update from Rth:

30m Saturday.

.

 

[KaijuDude1992]

Update from Rth:

30m Saturday.

Hell yes. Hopefully, it stays over too.

 

[Mysteryman]

So much for Brie Larson ruining the MCU.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Update from Rth:

30m Saturday.

If so, that'd be a heckuva hold from last week's Saturday total of $52.8 million.

 

[Shuri]

Free Fire

There's another Brie gif from that movie that is very useful when discussing Captain Marvel with idiots, but I can't post it here.

Please share with the rest of us. I'm stealing this one, it will be very useful, not just now but in Brie's endgame thread.

 

[Iceman]

If so, that'd be a heckuva hold from last week's Saturday total of $52.8 million.

Yes, very impressive. More good signs of positive holds despite the huge open.

 

[Shuri]

So what kind of drop are we looking at?

 

[Silver Surfer]

So what kind of drop are we looking at?

In the range of 53-55%.

 

[Warlock]

So if the average drop for a MCU solo movie is 56%, anything from 55-57% is right in that average zone. Not bad, not good, it's an average drop.

 

[roxas99]

So if the average drop for a MCU solo movie is 56%, anything from 55-57% is right in that average zone. Not bad, not good, it's an average drop.

That sounds really bad for the trolls since they have been telling their fans that this movie is going to fall much harder than the average MCU film. In their minds this movie is the worst thing in the world so there for it has to have the worst second week drop in history in order to prove that everybody hates the "SJW" just as much as they do.

They have been claiming the movie is going to drop 69 percent like batman vs superman or 65 percent like Solo did ( many have been claiming that even a 80 percent drop was possible)

if it only drops 53-55% than their entire argument against the film completely falls apart. remember they have hyped this movie failure for so long than anything less than a 60 percent drop would look like a complete defeat for them so be prepared to hear a lot more conspiracy theories and explaining now that it is guaranteed that the massive drop they have hoping for will not be happening

 

[Iceman]

That sounds really bad for the trolls since they have been telling their fans that this movie is going to fall much harder than the average MCU film. In their minds this movie is the worst thing in the world so there for it has to have the worst second week drop in history in order to prove that everybody hates the "SJW" just as much as they do.

They have been claiming the movie is going to drop 69 percent like batman vs superman or 65 percent like Solo did ( many have been claiming that even a 80 percent drop was possible)

if it only drops 53-55% than their entire argument against the film completely falls apart. remember they have hyped this movie failure for so long than anything less than a 60 percent drop would look like a complete defeat for them so be prepared to hear a lot more conspiracy theories and explaining now that it is guaranteed that the massive drop they have hoping for will not be happening

Give it another 7 days and the theories will involve undead ninjas and space pirate Disney execs.

 

[LongshotRules]

Like Tyrone Magnus. I'm not gonna unsubscribe to a person because he didn't like a movie that I do but he's been acting like a foolish troll when it comes to this film, especially that "72% monday drop/is the box office fake" video. Dude should stick to reactions.

I didn't bother to click on Magnus' review of Captain Marvel because I already knew that it's going to be negative, but if what you said is true then I will not sub to him ever again. Same with Jeremy Jahns, the way he refused to even say anything nice about the movie and just compared it to WW while heaping praise on that movie was such a stupid thing to do that I unsubbed to him right away. Chris Stuckman and Aggressive comics also didn't like the movie, but at least they urged their audience to check it out (still disappointed in their reviews though). Campea and Grace both gave it mostly positive reviews. Screen Junkies though... really disappointed in Dan and Roth, particularly Dan. Saying that The Dark World and Iron Man 2 are better than CM, to me, is him putting this movie on the bottom of the barrel. I usually agree with Dan on his reviews but not this time.

 

[ironman_rick]

A lot of marvel movies has had 60% drop in their 2nd week. Its only gonna drop around 53%%.... that is awesome. > $400M domestic is a lock now. With china contributing around $180M , we need around $400 from rest of the world for a billion which should be easy to achieve.

 

[Silver Surfer]

A billion is no longer something that's in any sort of doubt, at this point the question is whether or not it reaches 1.2b.