Captain Marvel The Captain Marvel box office prediction thread

[The Chris]

Excellent.
This will drive the haters crazy.

Like Tyrone Magnus. I'm not gonna unsubscribe to a person because he didn't like a movie that I do but he's been acting like a foolish troll when it comes to this film, especially that "72% monday drop/is the box office fake" video. Dude should stick to reactions.

 

[Silver Surfer]

 

[Silver Surfer]

Chinese numbers came in higher than even the high end estimate of 24m:

#CaptainMarvel grossed $11mn on its 2nd Saturday in China, putting it in pace to $26mn 2nd weekend.

Total hits $125mn, will cross $134mn tomorrow.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Japanese numbers:

#CaptainMarvel grossed $3.9mn in Japan 2 days in release. Heading for $6.5mn weekend, which will be biggest opening weekend for a superhero film which didn't had Spider-Man or they weren't the Earth's mightiest hero.

 

[Pink Ranger]

Like Tyrone Magnus. I'm not gonna unsubscribe to a person because he didn't like a movie that I do but he's been acting like a foolish troll when it comes to this film, especially that "72% monday drop/is the box office fake" video. Dude should stick to reactions.

Yeah, I watch him a lot too, but between him saying CM is the worst MCU movie ever (an over the top exaggeration, even if you didn't really like the movie, which kind of includes me) and then repeating silly conspiracy theories makes me think he's just one of those incel trolls who's just a little more politically correct than most in expressing his views. I once unsubscribed to a channel because the content provider used the c-word to describe Kathleen Kennedy, which is uncalled whether you like her or not.

 

[Patrick77]

The change in the audience demo is more or less expected. It's the hardcore fan audience that is most front-loaded.

That's one reason why Wonder Woman had such an unusually high domestic multiplier for a superhero movie. It wasn't that highly anticipated by fans, due to bad buzz surrounding the DCEU at that time, so it ended up performing almost like an animated film, or a family movie.

This movie will be more front-loaded, due to the hype surrounding the MCU, but it will probably pick up more of the family and casual moviegoer audience over time and have a solid multiplier.

 

[Silver Surfer]

^ This movie is not front loaded at all, even the low end put its 2nd weekend drop at -55%, which would be on the upper echelon of MCU movies.

 

[Patrick77]

Right, but Wonder Woman had a like a 4x domestic multiplier, which is extremely unusual, basically unheard of for these movies.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Doesn't make this front-loaded, just makes that an anomaly.

 

[Patrick77]

Doesn't make this front-loaded, just makes that an anomaly.

You're right, but I was making a specific comparison, not a general statement. There was some talk previously about the first weekend for this movie having a higher percentage of men in the audience than one would expect, but it just means that the dedicated fan audience showed up in force.

 

[Mysteryman]

Japanese numbers:

#CaptainMarvel grossed $3.9mn in Japan 2 days in release. Heading for $6.5mn weekend, which will be biggest opening weekend for a superhero film which didn't had Spider-Man or they weren't the Earth's mightiest hero.

So, biggest debut for a superhero film that isn't Spider-Man or The Avengers?

 

[Silver Surfer]

You're right, but I was making a specific comparison, not a general statement. There was some talk previously about the first weekend for this movie having a higher percentage of men in the audience than one would expect, but it just means that the dedicated fan audience showed up in force.

I got you, I was just emphasizing that this movie is not front-loaded in anyway because there is a ton of fake news being perpetuated by trolls about this movie's boxoffice.

 

[Silver Surfer]

So, biggest debut for a superhero film that isn't Spider-Man or The Avengers?

Yeah, biggest CBM debut that isn't Spidey or Avengers.

 

[Web-Head]

The change in the audience demo is more or less expected. It's the hardcore fan audience that is most front-loaded.

That's one reason why Wonder Woman had such an unusually high domestic multiplier for a superhero movie. It wasn't that highly anticipated by fans, due to bad buzz surrounding the DCEU at that time, so it ended up performing almost like an animated film, or a family movie.

This movie will be more front-loaded, due to the hype surrounding the MCU, but it will probably pick up more of the family and casual moviegoer audience over time and have a solid multiplier.

Something like that. I saw Captain Marvel opening night last Thursday with my best friend but then I'm seeing it a second time later today with my family. Some of the more general fans want to wait until the crowds die down a little bit and go the second weekend

 

[Patrick77]

I see what you mean. My original point was really more like an explanation of why this movie probably won't be particularly front-loaded as compared to most superhero movies.

It had the big opening, but now it is picking up on a different part of the potential audience, as evidenced by the changing demographic.

Captain Marvel's domestic multiplier probably won't end up being a total anomaly or anything, but it could end up on the high end for these movies.

 

[Fallen]

Domestic: $215,942,933 36.3%
+ Foreign: $378,700,000 63.7%

Worldwide: $594,642,933

Almost $600M!!!

 

[Fallen]

Chinese numbers came in higher than even the high end estimate of 24m:

#CaptainMarvel grossed $11mn on its 2nd Saturday in China, putting it in pace to $26mn 2nd weekend.

Total hits $125mn, will cross $134mn tomorrow.

Captain Marvel is now the third-highest grossing solo superhero movie in China (behind Aquaman & Venom), right?

 

[Naglfar]

Captain Marvel is now the third-highest grossing solo superhero movie in China (behind Aquaman & Venom), right?

Depends if you consider CW solo or not

 

[Silver Surfer]

Captain Marvel is now the third-highest grossing solo superhero movie in China (behind Aquaman & Venom), right?

There's a technicality with Cap 3, but for all intents and purposes, yeah it is.

 

[Mysteryman]

it's early but Deadline is estimating 69.7 million at this point.
Seems awfully close to 70 million to me.

 

[Silver Surfer]

 

[Mysteryman]

That's great, but it probably means that we are going to keep hearing about the Marvel ticket buying conspiracy

 

[Abudefduf]

After this epic failure I wonder if stupid YouTubers and their minions will even attempt to launch a boycott for Episode IX. Do they really want to risk looking even dumber than they do now?

Decisions, decisions.

 

[Iceman]

That's great, but it probably means that we are going to keep hearing about the Marvel ticket buying conspiracy

I want to keep hearing about that as it means the films are continuing to make megabucks.

 

[SpiderProtector]

I don't think they realize how dumb they actually are. To them, there's no way a movie starring a female superhero could be this successful. It's obvious it's an "SJW" conspiracy or something. Obviously everyone is lying about this movie being a success because reasons.

If the movie fail, they win, if the movie is a success, well they can just say everything is fabricated and they win.