Captain Marvel The Captain Marvel box office prediction thread

[Spider-Fan]

I hope it cracks 1 billion. Movie looks great, and I am jazzed for this!

I am hoping my Captain Marvel wave figures come this week. I pre-ordered the 4 movie based ones ages ago.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Couple other factors to consider:

• While Trailer Impact usually only measures films coming out in the next 10 weeks, we added Captain Marvel to the survey this week, 12 weeks out.
• 70.7% of respondents who saw the Captain trailer this week said they intend to see it in theaters.
• That’s the third-highest number measured since the metric’s March inception, behind only the past two weeks’ numbers for Avengers: Endgame. (See above.)
• Captain spends its first week in the top three, at #2.

https://pro.boxoffice.com/trailer-impact-12-27-18/

 

[KBX]

Thinking around 700-800 mil. Don’t get it twisted it’s still a huge success.

 

[DoomRulz]

^ Hence the term "prediction".

Voted $700 mill... which I think is slightly on the conservative side.

I think everyone seems to forget that women constitute 52% of the movie going public, and as a group have (rightly) felt underrepresented in the superhero genre. If this movie hits the right chord... i.e. it's marketed to women* rather than pandering to women**, I think Captain Marvel is going to be absolutely massive.

* Doesn't mean that it has to be marketed exclusively to women.
** Ye gods, has anyone seen those Supergirl promos? *shudders*

I think that's precisely why it's not going to do much better than Ant-Man or any other lower-tier grossing MCU film. This film is being promoted on "it's a woman, it's a woman, it's a woman, RAWR, we're so progressive!!" and I think that's going to turn off more fans than the studio realizes. People want to see movies that entertain them, not films that preach to them. If the film is insulting its audience, word will spread like wildfire.

Re: women being 52% of the movie going public. Fine and dandy, but are they 52% of the comic book genre fandom? I'd bet my bottom dollar most of that money is still coming from the male audience. I mean Hell, the Twilight movies made a buttload of money but that money came almost entirely from a female audience because it was the sort of film that on average, women tend to prefer (a love story).

 

[Comicbookguy339]

I think that's precisely why it's not going to do much better than Ant-Man or any other lower-tier grossing MCU film. This film is being promoted on "it's a woman, it's a woman, it's a woman, RAWR, we're so progressive!!" and I think that's going to turn off more fans than the studio realizes. People want to see movies that entertain them, not films that preach to them. If the film is insulting its audience, word will spread like wildfire.

I'm gonna bookmark this post to make fun of it later.

 

[Smurphftw]

I could see this movie under performing, over performing, or hitting that average MCU mark in that 700-800 million range. I don't have a strong feeling about this movie in either direction so I guess I will just go with 700 million plus.

Edit: Whoever predicted it would gross less than 200 million WW, seek professional help.

 

[Binary10]

I got it making 800-1billion

 

[Heretic]

Thinking around 700-800 mil. Don’t get it twisted it’s still a huge success.

Why would that be considered anything but a huge success?

Personally, I think 800 is a bit high...unless the character becomes a focal point of Endgame advertising, which would increase interest beyond the Ant-Man&The Wasp/Dr Strange level. Anything is possible with Marvel, I suppose...but I am not seeing much reason for it to outperform the recent mid-tier Marvel titles...which would make it a blockbuster success.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I think it is going to hit 800 mil. Look at the recent trend with these movies. Once Aquaman hits it, that will make 3 billion dollar CBMs in 1 year. Venom made over 800 mil as well (in October). Heck, all 3 MCU films did over 800 mil in 2017! These films keep making more and more on average as time goes on. I think the tag at the end of IW helped, also.I am seeing 800-850. Possibly just over 850 WW.

 

[HammerDown]

After seeing that Special Look i'm more and more confident in my prediction of over 700M.
Looks like a really good movie, has the Marvel brand attached to it, a female lead, directly connects to Avengers: End Game... It's gonna be a hit.

 

[Mandon Knight]

$700m + vote.

 

[Zarex]

I think that's precisely why it's not going to do much better than Ant-Man or any other lower-tier grossing MCU film. This film is being promoted on "it's a woman, it's a woman, it's a woman, RAWR, we're so progressive!!" and I think that's going to turn off more fans than the studio realizes. People want to see movies that entertain them, not films that preach to them. If the film is insulting its audience, word will spread like wildfire.

Re: women being 52% of the movie going public. Fine and dandy, but are they 52% of the comic book genre fandom? I'd bet my bottom dollar most of that money is still coming from the male audience. I mean Hell, the Twilight movies made a buttload of money but that money came almost entirely from a female audience because it was the sort of film that on average, women tend to prefer (a love story).

Unless you are predisposed to be triggered by a comic-book film with a female lead, I doubt very much potential moviegoers will be turned off by CM. I wouldn't doubt that the "Her" turning "Hero" has got the garbage humans clutching their respective pearls, but they'll pay to see it just so they can be offended by a lady hero taking fake super hero jobs away from made up dudes in a fictional connected cinematic universe.

 

[KBX]

Why would that be considered anything but a huge success?

Personally, I think 800 is a bit high...unless the character becomes a focal point of Endgame advertising, which would increase interest beyond the Ant-Man&The Wasp/Dr Strange level. Anything is possible with Marvel, I suppose...but I am not seeing much reason for it to outperform the recent mid-tier Marvel titles...which would make it a blockbuster success.

There are some who think if your movie doesn’t hit 1 Bill than it’s a tailor

 

[Webfoot Hero]

There are some who think if your movie doesn’t hit 1 Bill than it’s a tailor

Why would being a tailor be considered a failure?

 

[flickchick85]

Tailors are people too!

 

[KBX]

Why would being a tailor be considered a failure?

Lol meant to say failure. Doesn’t make a billion some will consider it a failure.

 

[MahvelBaby!]

Went with 700 mil and I think that would be great

 

[rashad]

I see this in the Ant-Man/Doctor Strange range in terms of gross.

 

[Fallen]

Jordan Peele’s ‘Us’ To Hit Theaters A Week Later After Landing SXSW Opening Night Slot

It's funny that several movies that were going to be released close to Captain Marvel changed their release dates (Us, Godzilla 2, How to Train Your Dragon 3, the Dr. Dolittle reboot...).

March 8: Captain Marvel
March 22: Us (the next movie from Get Out director Jordan Peele)
March 29: Disney's Dumbo

April 5: Shazam!
April 12: Hellboy
April 26: Avengers: Endgame

 

[Fallen]

 

[samsnee]

I think it'll do $900 range but wouldn't s surprise me if it hit $1B. Don't see it beating BP though.

 

[Iceman]

I guess the top 2 are expected to be way out in front so this seems very good.

 

[Iceman]

There are some who think if your movie doesn’t hit 1 Bill than it’s a tailor

That’s a good thing right? So either we get a bill or the film can sort out my suits.

 

[flickchick85]

It won’t come close BP. Let’s not forget that outside BP, which was a legit cultural phenom, Marvel’s highest grossing origin film is GotG with $773mil, and their highest grossing origin for a solo hero is Doctor Strange at $677mil. THOSE are the realistic benchmarks for CM to be trying to hit, IMO. $700mil would be great; $800m would be awesome, though, and possible I think.

 

[KaijuDude1992]

Yeah this shouldn't be compared to BP at all. That movie had so much going for it on a cultural level not to mention the amount of buzz/hype that the Kendrick Lamar soundtrack added to it. Again this should be compared to other Marvel solo origin films like Doctor Strange or GOTG and like those movies I can easily see this hitting $700-$800M WW with a domestic gross well over $300M. I don't even think $1B is that hard for this movie either if it ends up really connecting with general audiences.