Captain Marvel The Captain Marvel box office prediction thread

[KangConquers]

$200 M Dom, $350 M foreign. $550 M ww.

 

[Mike5575]

$200 M Dom, $350 M foreign. $550 M ww.

That would be low-balling it. I'd be surprised if Captain Marvel makes less than 600 million, especially with hype leading up to Infinity War.

 

[flickchick85]

Yeah, I voted $600m+ WW, but I honestly think that's the floor for this.

 

[Mike5575]

Yeah, I voted $600m+ WW, but I honestly think that's the floor for this.

$600m sounds reasonable. This film should be able to break $700 million.

 

[KangConquers]

That would be low-balling it. I'd be surprised if Captain Marvel makes less than 600 million, especially with hype leading up to Infinity War.

I find the idea that IW hype is going to turn this into a near $1 B movie a little preposterous. We know so little about the movie. We have no director, we have no star.

Captain Marvel isn't a big character outside of comic fans. Right now the ceiling seems to be around $750 M for that, and that's with great reviews/ WoM/ unique takes on the genre. (Deadpool, Guardians of the Galaxy.)

If Captain Marvel isn't anything special, just a competent blockbuster, IW hype alone isn't going to drive it into the $750-$1 B range, the same way post AoU/ pre Civil War hype didn't drive Ant-Man into that range. I think it's got a sort of built in 500-600 M, and will have to earn it's way above that.

 

[Mike5575]

I find the idea that IW hype is going to turn this into a near $1 B movie a little preposterous. We know so little about the movie. We have no director, we have no star.

Captain Marvel isn't a big character outside of comic fans. Right now the ceiling seems to be around $750 M for that, and that's with great reviews/ WoM/ unique takes on the genre. (Deadpool, Guardians of the Galaxy.)

If Captain Marvel isn't anything special, just a competent blockbuster, IW hype alone isn't going to drive it into the $750-$1 B range, the same way post AoU/ pre Civil War hype didn't drive Ant-Man into that range. I think it's got a sort of built in 500-600 M, and will have to earn it's way above that.

I never said a billion. I think it could do over $700 million with $600m being the floor. I just don't see the film doing Ant-Man numbers, particular given a more epic powerset and and kewl space adventure. I remember people being disinterested in Ant-Man, because the concept sounded too silly on paper. Websites were even calling it Marvel's first flop before it released. WoM is indeed important, and I'm considering that for my predictions.

Captain Marvel will be something special to the GA as Marvel's first female superhero film. Hype for Civil War may not have helped Ant-Man, but those films were almost a year apart. By comparison, Captain Marvel is just two months away from Infinity War 2.

 

[Havok83]

aint it a bit early for a thread like this? She doesnt even have an actress tied to her and even that can play a big role in the numbers the film puts out. Besides money in 2014 (when this thread was created) will be different than in 2019 when it actually comes out

 

[Abudefduf]

Well, based on the non-existing lead actress and on the rumoured indie director, I'd say this will make at least one jillion dollars.

Give or take.

 

[Inhuman117]

Like Ant Man i think CM will be around 500-600 WW

 

[Abudefduf]

I just don't get how we're even supposed to predict this.

We don't know who the lead actress is, we don't know the director, we don't know the supporting cast; most importantly, we have no way to know what Marvel Studios' reputation with the audiences is gonna be three years from now.

This is literally just shooting in the dark, and yes, I'm a party-pooper.

 

[KangConquers]

I do find it amusing that this is ROUNDLY being predicted as outgrossing Doctor Strange and Black Panther, when if we're to believe rumors, Marvel considers this the only movie of the three that they don't feel fully confident in the sequel prospects of.

 

[Mike5575]

I do find it amusing that this is ROUNDLY being predicted as outgrossing Doctor Strange and Black Panther, when if we're to believe rumors, Marvel considers this the only movie of the three that they don't feel fully confident in the sequel prospects of.

Tell me, do you believe everything you read on the Internet? Some random person on 4Chan, claiming they're an intern with insider information, and you believe them? Besides, even if there is truth to this rumor, Captain Marvel doesn't even have a lead actress or director attached to the film. If you hate Csptsin Marvel, then why even bother posting here?

 

[KangConquers]

Tell me, do you believe everything you read on the Internet? Some random person on 4Chan, claiming they're an intern with insider information, and you believe them? Besides, even if there is truth to this rumor, Captain Marvel doesn't even have a lead actress or director attached to the film. If you hate Csptsin Marvel, then why even bother posting here?

I don't HATE Captain Marvel, I'm just slightly baffled at the high balling here. These high predictions seem as extreme as the $250 M predictions for Civil War, and Captain America is my favorite superhero.

 

[jr24tw]

I actually think being released so close to IW 2 will hurt CM's box office success. Movies aren't exactly cheap, for one. I can see some people skipping the movie because by then even the average person will know that CM is also in IW 2 so they will just skip her solo because they will see her in action with her powers 2 months later anyway. And then catch up on her origin story some other time.

 

[KangConquers]

I actually think being released so close to IW 2 will hurt CM's box office success. Movies aren't exactly cheap, for one. I can see some people skipping the movie because by then even the average person will know that CM is also in IW 2 so they will just skip her solo because they will see her in action with her powers 2 months later anyway. And then catch up on her origin story some other time.

I'm going to see it on Preview Night, in iMax, cause it's an MCU movie, so this doesn't say much, but my excitement will really skyrocket if they get Blunt.

 

[mustapantteri]

600+m sounds reasonable to me. Wonder how much a boost she receives after IW1.

 

[KangConquers]

600+m sounds reasonable to me. Wonder how much a boost she receives after IW1.

She only gets a boost if she's in it. Do we have confirmation either way?

 

[raimar]

with all due respect, we went to see WW twice, (family of 5) and loved it. But, i see already some SJW infuence and crap about being the most powerful by far and already you lost me at hello! Will not see it and recommend the same to all of you who think this is well past ridiculous. It is a good moment to change hobbies, i guess.

 

[flickchick85]

Based on everything we've learned recently and how big a part I think she's gonna have in Avengers 4, I'm upping my prediction to $320m domestic, $430m international. $750m WW.

 

[KevTravels]

I'd wager 750 million. Opening weekend 100 million with 300-350 domestic.

 

[psylockolussus]

Would be great if it performs just like Black Panther at the box office.

 

[samsnee]

It would be great but I don't think it will. Black Panther not only had a black lead, but a nearly all black cast, and a black director and crew. It was a story where the black experience was deftly woven into its story, which was fairly stand alone in the MCU. In short, a true cultural moment.

Captain Marvel has a female lead but has two directors, one of whom is male. It's story, while potentially stand alone based on the 90s setting, doesn't seem as culturally driven. I think it could do strong numbers, but I don't expect a $200M opening weekend.

 

[KevTravels]

Would be great if it performs just like Black Panther at the box office.

I concur. But I see a max of 800.

 

[mclay18]

Looking at how well BP has performed, I think CM is going to be the next big Marvel franchise. Marvel picked an astute date to release it (International Women's Day) and they have brand recognition.

I'm going with $155M opening weekend domestic, $415 domestic final, and $800M+ worldwide. Just going by the first HG opening, adjusting for inflation and IMAX/3D surcharges.

 

[Iceman]

Looking at how well BP has performed, I think CM is going to be the next big Marvel franchise. Marvel picked an astute date to release it (International Women's Day) and they have brand recognition.

I'm going with $155M opening weekend domestic, $415 domestic final, and $800M+ worldwide. Just going by the first HG opening, adjusting for inflation and IMAX/3D surcharges.

Well that would be awesome! I really hope CM can follow in WW's footsteps and see a BP/IW/MCU boost.