Captain Marvel The Captain Marvel box office prediction thread

[Holy Slapper]

Tickets went on sale on Friday over here and I reserved a ticket from the near by bigger town theater in case it doesn't arrive in my home town. The afternoon showing at 17:15 on March 6th was already selling well.

 

[Iceman]

I sure hope that tracking estimate is right.
Hoping for 140-160 million on opening weekend.

$160m sounds like nosebleed territory for a solo CBM! A good multiplier combined with an opening of that size means mega bucks!!

 

[Webfoot Hero]

I find it funny that some of these anti-CM Youtubers/Facebookers are trying to say the movie's box office projections have dropped by nearly half when they just don't understand the difference between the methodology used by Box Office Pro and the industry sources to get their numbers. They also seem to think these numbers are set in stone when the number almost always fluctuate as the release date comes closer. All the info cherrypicking and illogical conclusions are reminding me of the runup to BP's release.

 

[Shuri]

I find it funny that some of these anti-CM Youtubers/Facebookers are trying to say the movie's box office projections have dropped by nearly half when they just don't understand the difference between the methodology used by Box Office Pro and the industry sources to get their numbers. They also seem to think these numbers are set in stone when the number almost always fluctuate as the release date comes closer. All the info cherrypicking and illogical conclusions are reminding me of the runup to BP's release.

BP's box office run was phenomenal, I was a lurker then. It kept going up, I hope CM goes up as we get closer.

 

[samsnee]

Audiences are ready for a big budget movie. We haven’t had one since Christmas.

 

[Abudefduf]

Box Office: Winter 2019 Revenue Hits 8-Year Low in U.S.

Captain Marvel can't arrive in theaters soon enough.

That's the refrain across Hollywood — and on Wall Street — as industry observers grapple with a downturn at the North American box office following a record-shattering 2018. Revenue for the first seven weeks of 2019 has hit an eight-year low, capped by what looks to be the worst Presidents Day weekend in at least 15 years.

"This lack has left the industry stuck in neutral as we await the arrival of Captain Marvel, which will begin a much-needed and inevitable revival at the multiplex," says Paul Dergarabedian of Comscore.

Tracking suggests Captain Marvel, starring Brie Larson, will open to $120 million or more domestically.

I don't know why but the idea that Wall Street is hoping Captain Marvel will be a success is hilarious to me. Even Gordon Gekko is rooting for this movie.

 

[psylockolussus]

Audiences are ready for a big budget movie. We haven’t had one since Christmas.

Alita: Battle Angel is a big budget movie. According to boxofficemojo, the production budget is $170 million.

 

[Micromind]

Box Office: Winter 2019 Revenue Hits 8-Year Low in U.S.

I don't know why but the idea that Wall Street is hoping Captain Marvel will be a success is hilarious to me. Even Gordon Gekko is rooting for this movie.

Any reason why Captain Marvel is tracking for a huge opening ? Just curious because none of the other Marvel heroes like Captain America, Thor, Spider-Man (except Black Panther) had such huge opening (more than 140 mil), Is Brie Larson a very popular actress ? Or is Captain Marvel a very popular hero in US more than other MCU heroes? Because in rest of the world, I don't think Captain Marvel is very well known. Or is it due to Captain Marvel appearing in Avengers Endgame ?

I want movie to do well but I must say I was not expecting such huge opening.

 

[KBX]

The tease at the end of IW did help, but to be honest I just think superhero movies just make much more than superhero movies say 3 years ago. Look at Venom, Aquaman, Black Panther.

To the younger female crowd there’s a stigma that’s selling well, she is the one that’s going to have a huge part of taking down Thanos.

 

[Micromind]

If the reason is simply that this movie appeals to female crowd, then it would be doing Ghostbusters (2016) numbers, that movie opened to mere $ 46 mil. Clearly that's not the case here. Also other female lead movies like Peppermint, Atomic Blonde, Ghost in the Shell and Alita didn't have great opening or great B.O.collections.

 

[KBX]

It’s never just one thing it’s a clumination of factors. What CM trying to do is what BP did, try to sell your movie to the non-movie going crowd. Sorta like the Wonder Woman playbook. Those movies listed weren’t in the MCU.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

If the reason is simply that this movie appeals to female crowd, then it would be doing Ghostbusters (2016) numbers, that movie opened to mere $ 46 mil. Clearly that's not the case here. Also other female lead movies like Peppermint, Atomic Blonde, Ghost in the Shell and Alita didn't have great opening or great B.O.collections.

Those weren't big budget films or well-known properties here in the US. Ghostbusters hadn't had a release in nearly 30 years so the fanbase wasn't there for it. CM, meanwhile, is part of one of the largest active film franchises in the world, leading into one of the largest expected films of all-time, and has a good release date with little competition.

 

[JackieBoy]

BOOOOOOO! I want them to put it in the movie or at least just stick it on after the credits

**Was supposed to post this in the other thread

 

[Detective Conan]

Midnight Edge has a fair and measured take on Captain Marvel.

 

[Fallen]

Hollywood Reporter:

3 days ago: 100M
Today: 120M



Social media embargo lifts tomorrow!

 

[Shuri]

Hollywood Reporter:

3 days ago: 100M
Today: 120M



Social media embargo lifts tomorrow!

Glad its going up, I hope it hits 160.

 

[Iceman]

Hollywood Reporter:

3 days ago: 100M
Today: 120M



Social media embargo lifts tomorrow!

Serious inflation over those 3 days.

 

[metaphysician]

Midnight Edge has a fair and measured take on Captain Marvel.

Sigh. Comparisons with Last Jedi always miss the point. The core problem with the Last Jedi wasn't that it starred a bunch of non-white, non-male characters. The core problem was that its main story premise was that it was a badly conceived deconstructive tale about how heroism is bad.

I find it morbidly amusing how many people defend it on the grounds of "only Nazis hate it", when the movie spends the entire plot having. . . the black guy, the hispanic guy, and the other white woman ( whose not young ) fail and be told how they are wrong. And then even the one white woman who gets to be sort of right in some ways still gets to screw up and fail anyway. The only character to actually achieve anything is. . . the white dude edgelord villain who gets to take over the literal neo-nazis. Why the internet nazis don't praise the movie for being the best clever propaganda for them ever, I. . . well, I know why, because internet nazis are idiots.

( Also, seriously, Rian Johnson? You do not get to make a movie that has the villains be explicit neo-nazi standins, and then play a "both sides moral ambiguity war is wrong" subplot. Did you even think that through at all? )

*cough*

Anyway, my point is. . . one can't judge how likely Captain Marvel is to work without understand why it might work or not work. IMO, the big risk is not "feminist superhero driving away the audience", even if that's the way a lot of obnoxious voices on the internet wish to phrase it. The big risk is the Superman Syndrome, where a single hero is pushed as more important and better than everyone else.

 

[ArmsHeldOut]

I don't know if this was already posted, but...

 

[MahvelBaby!]

I voted 800 million a couple weeks ago, but If I voted today I'd take a chance on a billion plus.

 

[dyl1dyl]

I voted 1 bill plus but Im actively thinking its gonna come in on the lower end now. Maybe 920-1020

 

[Comicbookguy339]

It's driving me insane how idiot MRA incel youtubers are claiming that the projected OW gross has dropped by 60M due to Larson's comments because they either don't understand or purposefully ignore the fact that different outlets have different forecasts and that long-range projections are generally just ballpark numbers.

 

[Mysteryman]

It's driving me insane how idiot MRA incel youtubers are claiming that the projected OW gross has dropped by 60M due to Larson's comments because they either don't understand or purposefully ignore the fact that different outlets have different forecasts and that long-range projections are generally just ballpark numbers.

I know.
Drives me crazy, too.

 

[harlequinade]

It's driving me insane how idiot MRA incel youtubers are claiming that the projected OW gross has dropped by 60M due to Larson's comments because they either don't understand or purposefully ignore the fact that different outlets have different forecasts and that long-range projections are generally just ballpark numbers.

Just ignore them

Though it is startling how many seem to be suffering from crippling infliction called tinybrainmicropenis

 

[Fallen]

Presales are looking strong in South Korea.