Captain Marvel The Captain Marvel box office prediction thread

[flickchick85]

I hope Captain Marvel makes a billion but I'm not sure I see it happening. I think 800-900 is a good bet though.

That would be huge for a Marvel origin film. Outside of Black Panther, which was without a doubt an anomaly, the biggest Marvel origin of a solo hero has been Doctor Strange, which didn’t even hit $700mil. Anything more than that would be phenomenal for this film.

I think it’s a good idea not to inflate expectations to the point that we just make it easier for the trolls to spin the narrative to “failure” if it “only” makes $700mil.

 

[Flint Marko]

That would be huge for a Marvel origin film. Outside of Black Panther, which was without a doubt an anomaly, the biggest Marvel origin of a solo hero has been Doctor Strange, which didn’t even hit $700mil. Anything more than that would be phenomenal for this film.

I think it’s a good idea not to inflate expectations to the point that we just make it easier for the trolls to spin the narrative to “failure” if it “only” makes $700mil.

Oh for sure. $700 million would be a huge success, that’s more than quadruple the reported budget.

 

[Mysteryman]

If a billion was the benchmark, every Spider_Man film would be considered a failure.

 

[MahvelBaby!]

It obviously won't be a failure if it makes 700+ but man do I want this one to shut everyone up. I personally voted for 800

 

[KaijuDude1992]

 

[Smurphftw]

That would be huge for a Marvel origin film. Outside of Black Panther, which was without a doubt an anomaly, the biggest Marvel origin of a solo hero has been Doctor Strange, which didn’t even hit $700mil. Anything more than that would be phenomenal for this film.

I think it’s a good idea not to inflate expectations to the point that we just make it easier for the trolls to spin the narrative to “failure” if it “only” makes $700mil.

I remember someone trying to say that Homecoming was a bomb, when at the time it had just passed 800 million gross WW. Then I introduced him to this thing called math. Good times ....

 

[BoredGuy]

Guess we'll just have to "ticket bomb" the movie to negate the review bombing

I usually only see movies once or twice in the theaters cuz its so damn expensive... but think I'll have to see this one multiple times just 'cuz

 

[metaphysician]

We should neither bomb the reviews nor the tickets. Instead, what "we" should be doing is waiting to see the actual quality of the movie. If its awesome, review it well and give it strong word of mouth. If its *not* awesome, review it poorly and give it poor word of mouth. In either case, the success of the movie should be connected to the quality of the movie.

 

[Fallen]

Good news. SK is a BIG market for superhero movies.

 

[Iceman]

Awesome

 

[Iceman]

Good news. SK is a BIG market for superhero movies.

Yes, it's huge. Outside of China it is one of the biggest overseas territories out there. In fact it was the biggest for CW with almost $63m. Will be impressive if CM can get those kinds of numbers. (overall CW made $745m overseas)

 

[Fallen]

I still don't understand why Disney has not worked with Tencent Pictures to distribute their films in China. They have an impressive track record, they really know how to promote a movie.

Warcraft, Kong: Skull Island, Venom, Aquaman, etc... were distributed by Tencent Pictures.

Warcraft grossed $ 213M in China.
Kong: $ 168M.
Venom: $ 272M
Aquaman: $ 298M.

I read this last month:

 

[Mysteryman]

We should neither bomb the reviews nor the tickets. Instead, what "we" should be doing is waiting to see the actual quality of the movie. If its awesome, review it well and give it strong word of mouth. If its *not* awesome, review it poorly and give it poor word of mouth. In either case, the success of the movie should be connected to the quality of the movie.

I believe in the quality of this film.
I was planning to only see it once,
As I I do with most films,
But given all of the pushback that this movie has received so far.
I now intend to see it multiple times.

 

[Iceman]

I still don't understand why Disney has not worked with Tencent Pictures to distribute their films in China. They have an impressive track record, they really know how to promote a movie.

Warcraft, Kong: Skull Island, Venom, Aquaman, etc... were distributed by Tencent Pictures.

Warcraft grossed $ 213M in China.
Kong: $ 168M.
Venom: $ 272M
Aquaman: $ 298M.

I read this last month:

Maybe that could give the films an even bigger boost there.

 

[JackieBoy]

 

[Kuwolski]

Those are impressive tracking numbers to be on par with CW. That film ended up making close to 200 m there. CM looks like it could potentially be a beast worldwide.

 

[Iceman]

That’s exactly what we want to hear!

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Marvel has made a lot of in-roads into Asia the past few years and with them hosting a big event in Singapore recently, I could see CM doing fairly well there, especially with Avengers: EG coming soon.

 

[Playco Armboy]

BoxOfficeTheory insiders are thinking $150m OW is looking very, very likely - with a good shot at $165+ if $19m comes in for Thursday previews which presales are indicating.

Couple that with the film's huge buzz in Asian markets, and you have a recipe for $500+ million in NA alone, plus a potential overseas gross matching that of Black Panther. I myself see its potential range as $1-$1.15 billion.

 

[Fallen]

Highest-grossing superhero movies in China:

1. Avengers: Infinity War — $359M
2. Aquaman — $298M
3. Venom — $272
4. Avengers: Age of Ultron — $240M
5. Captain America: Civil War — $180M
6. Ant-Man and the Wasp — $121M
7. Iron Man 3 — $121M
8. X-Men: Apocalypse — $120M
9. X-Men Days of Future Past — $116M
10. Spider-Man: Homecoming — $116M

 

[flickchick85]

BoxOfficeTheory insiders are thinking $150m OW is looking very, very likely - with a good shot at $165+ if $19m comes in for Thursday previews which presales are indicating.

Couple that with the film's huge buzz in Asian markets, and you have a recipe for $500+ million in NA alone, plus a potential overseas gross matching that of Black Panther. I myself see its potential range as $1-$1.15 billion.

That's good to hear, but I just hope I don't have to be hearing all about the "disappointment" narrative if it doesn't hit those insane numbers.

 

[Zyraquis]

The broflakes will spin it as a flop no matter what the BO is. If a movie with a 1.3b receipts beating all movies worldwide in that year could be labeled as a disappointment there is no stopping them.

 

[imbruglia]

CM - 5.4m presale number so far

For comparison
BATB 10 days out - 3.2m
BP 9 days out - 7m

from boxoffice forum. so pre sale number is very good.

 

[Kuwolski]

The broflakes will spin it as a flop no matter what the BO is. If a movie with a 1.3b receipts beating all movies worldwide in that year could be labeled as a disappointment there is no stopping them.

No spinning a film that makes a billion into a failure when the projections for opening weekend are taking a nosedive according to those same people. Everyone will know they've been caught with dick in hand.

 

[Playco Armboy]

The broflakes will spin it as a flop no matter what the BO is. If a movie with a 1.3b receipts beating all movies worldwide in that year could be labeled as a disappointment there is no stopping them.

What is that in reference to?