Captain Marvel The Captain Marvel box office prediction thread

I'd be wary of predicting 1B because of strong presale and first day numbers. WOM doesn't seem to be amazing and it has the biggest backlash of any movie since TLJ. IMO the movie is just okay, a decent origin movie and nothing less. Same level as Thor 1, Wonder Woman, and Cap 1. Definitely no Iron man or Batman Begins.

People can say man babies and insecurities and etc, but it can have an impact like - IMO - it did on TLJ and subsequently Solo. It's better to wait for 2nd weekend numbers before seeing if 1B is feasible.

flickchick85 said:
IW offered more spectacle, though. Civil War had some cool set-pieces, but was still more low-key, and like another poster said, still somehow felt darker. Like, it's much less pleasant to watch your heroes fall apart from within than to slowly band back together to take on a seemingly unbeatable force, even if they "lose" at the end. The getting there was still an epic ride you want to re-watch multiple times, ya know? I don't know if I'm explaining this well, lol.
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That's fair. CW was an anomaly and its legs were extremely low in comparison to other MCU movies. It's a good point and I remember my mom asking why Batman is fighting Superman and Captain America is fighting Ironman and if they ran out of villains and ideas lol. She didn't like it whereas in IW she was wowed (though didn't rewatch it). I'm sure others felt the same way, people don't want to see heroes fighting each other.
 
I don't know if CM going to make a billion.
But, one night of previews is insufficient evidence to say if it has the biggest backlash since TLJ.
it is way too early to say that.
and backlash or not, TLJ made a billion.
Hardly a box office failure.
 
CM made 32 million in China on opening day.
Making it the third best opening for a Superhero film in that country.
 
Mysteryman said:
I don't know if CM going to make a billion.
But, one night of previews is insufficient evidence to say if it has the biggest backlash since TLJ.
it is way too early to say that.
and backlash or not, TLJ made a billion.
Hardly a box office failure.
Click to expand...

The movie had the biggest backlash, fairly or unfairly, even before release. I can't think of a movie that's gotten this much crap since TLJ. Solo, for all its failures, was still liked by most people and didn't get bombarded on social media and RTs.
 
I was hoping it would take in 200 m+ in China. Still may, but with the WOM not being great it's definitely in doubt. That would have gone a long way to a billion. I get the sense the drop off will be bigger then other MCU films. We'll see how this weekend plays out.
 
So it was in the lower end. I hope the WOM doesn't stop the momentum before it starts.
 

This broke Infinity War record as the highest grossing imported movie for opening day, and has a chance to break IW opening weekend record.
 
Thursday night preview to OW multipliers for recent solo CBMs:

BP - 8x, DP - 10.4x, WW - 9.4x, Venom - 8x, Mister Doctor - 9x, Aquaman - 7.5x

So from this low but decent enough sample size, I conclude that the OW range is between (155.3 -186.3)m.
 
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Blitzkrieg said:
Thursday night preview to OW multipliers for recent solo CBMs:

BP - 8x, DP - 10.4x, WW - 9.4x, Venom - 8x, Mister Doctor - 9x, Aquaman - 7.5x

So from this low but decent enough sample size, I conclude that the OW range is between (155.3 -186.3)m.
Click to expand...
Damn! I would have been 100% happy with $150m.
 
Naglfar said:

This broke Infinity War record as the highest grossing imported movie for opening day, and has a chance to break IW opening weekend record.
Click to expand...
Wasn’t expecting CM to outdo IW anywhere.
 
‘Captain Marvel’ Blasts Off To $20.7M Thursday Night

FRIDAY AM UPDATE: Disney is reporting that Captain Marvel flew to $20.7M last night from shows that started at 6PM. Among Thursday Marvel previews that’s the fifth best after Avengers: Infinity War ($39M), Avengers: Age of Ultron ($27.6M), Black Panther ($25.2M), and Captain America: Civil War ($25M).

ComScore/Screen Engine PostTrak scores out of the gate for the 21st Marvel title in the MCU are off to a great start with 4 1/2 stars and a 73% definite recommend. Men overall led over females last night 60% to 40%. It will be interesting to see if that changes over the weekend. Captain Marvel pulled in a 77% general audience, 9% parents and 4% kids. Kids under 12 gave the female superhero five stars with girls giving the pic 100% and boys 91%. In order of demo draw last night men 25+ led at 37% followed by men under 25 (23%), women over 25 (21%) and women under 25 (18%). Women love the pic better than guys, 91% to 82% with females over 25 bestowing the best grades from adults on Carol Danvers at 96% positive.

Disney has appropriately timed Marvel’s first female superhero movie to open on Women’s Day today in 4,310 theaters, and what a wonderful weekend this will be with Captain Marvel set to earn north of $130M should it follow a similar trajectory to that of Suicide Squad which made $20.5M in previews, a $64.8M first day and $133.6M weekend. Spring breaks are starting up: ComScore shows 6% K-12 and 13% colleges off today, numbers which will grow to respectively 18% and 33% by Monday.
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Does anyone have any informed opinions on how Spring Break will effect its legs? I know Christmas break at times is helpful, but a big blockbuster like this usually doesn't release so close to Spring Break. Might be an X-Factor.
 
I don't understand some of the voting here. Since the Avengers came out, only Ant-Man has made $500M range. Everything else has been in the 600+ range. Really you only think this movie is going to make $100M WW?
 
Blitzkrieg said:
Thursday night preview to OW multipliers for recent solo CBMs:

BP - 8x, DP - 10.4x, WW - 9.4x, Venom - 8x, Mister Doctor - 9x, Aquaman - 7.5x

So from this low but decent enough sample size, I conclude that the OW range is between (155.3 -186.3)m.
Click to expand...
Perri Nemeroff over on Collider predicted 155 yesterday.
 
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