Captain Marvel The Captain Marvel box office prediction thread

[Holy Slapper]

I don't understand some of the voting here. Since the Avengers came out, only Ant-Man has made $500M range. Everything else has been in the 600+ range. Really you only think this movie is going to make $100M WW?

Notice the word "plus"? Technically they'll be correct.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Does anyone have any informed opinions on how Spring Break will effect its legs? I know Christmas break at times is helpful, but a big blockbuster like this usually doesn't release so close to Spring Break. Might be an X-Factor.

 

[Smurphftw]

I don't understand some of the voting here. Since the Avengers came out, only Ant-Man has made $500M range. Everything else has been in the 600+ range. Really you only think this movie is going to make $100M WW?

Obviously not a lot of objective thinking went into those predictions. I remember once someone posted that they thought "The Wolverine" wouldn't gross 100 million. Not Domestically mind you, but Worldwide. And I was like ...... dude .....

 

[Fallen]

OD in South America:

Bolivia: 16.405 (22.360 with previews), 121% over BP

Argentina: 98.176, 75% over BP

Paraguay: 7700 (8206 with previews), 86% over BP

Uruguay: 4305, 80% over BP

Perú: 195.000, 71% over BP

Most of those are the best solo debuts for the MCU. Should be around 1,4m USD between those markets.

Wow.

 

[Abudefduf]

Based on what I've been able to observe on Twitter, Brie Larson seems to have a pretty big following in South America.

 

[Fallen]

 

[Blitzkrieg]

The OD figure will narrow the range I have given (duh!) in my previous post. We just hafta see how front-loaded CM is going to be going into Saturday. Skwad did similar numbers in previews (20.5m) and it only achieved 133.5m on OW as it skewed heavily towards the OD and declined alarmingly on the subsequent days during the OW itself.

We also hafta re-align projection based on effect of Int'l Women's Day falling on Friday hence inflating the OD. But (155-160)m looks likely even after factoring in all of that.

 

[Mysteryman]

Marvel HAS to be happy with the worldwide reception for CM.
EXCELLENT!

 

[Fallen]

Imagine if Marvel releases the Endgame trailer (featuring Captain Marvel) next week.

 

[Holy Slapper]

Imagine if Marvel releases the Endgame trailer (featuring Captain Marvel) next week.

I think next week might be too soon, but if it's the one shown to Disney shareholders...

 

[Iceman]

Wow.

Had no idea that was on the cards. Brazil and Mexico are obviously big markets too so South America as a whole is looking great for this film and the MCU in general.

 

[Iceman]

The OD figure will narrow the range I have given (duh!) in my previous post. We just hafta see how front-loaded CM is going to be going into Saturday. Skwad did similar numbers in previews (20.5m) and it only achieved 133.5m on OW as it skewed heavily towards the OD and declined alarmingly on the subsequent days during the OW itself.

We also hafta re-align projection based on effect of Int'l Women's Day falling on Friday hence inflating the OD. But (155-160)m looks likely even after factoring in all of that.

Even worst case sounds big now.

 

[Ozbridge]

Skwad did similar numbers in previews (20.5m) and it only achieved 133.5m on OW as it skewed heavily towards the OD and declined alarmingly on the subsequent days during the OW itself.

We also hafta re-align projection based on effect of Int'l Women's Day falling on Friday hence inflating the OD. But (155-160)m looks likely even after factoring in all of that.

Didn't SS have huge Walmart promotion on opening day? I don't think it's quite comparable with CM.

Anyway with 150-155M almost locked and having more female audience than a normal superhero movie (normal = male-led), I think 400M more likely than not will happen, depending on WoM passing Civil War is good aim. I sucks at guessing international numbers but based on South Korea, China, LA and UK it seems like another 600M or so.

 

[Jh7058622]

Based on what I've been able to observe on Twitter, Brie Larson seems to have a pretty big following in South America.

Who knew?

 

[Erzengel]

The OD figure will narrow the range I have given (duh!) in my previous post. We just hafta see how front-loaded CM is going to be going into Saturday. Skwad did similar numbers in previews (20.5m) and it only achieved 133.5m on OW as it skewed heavily towards the OD and declined alarmingly on the subsequent days during the OW itself.

We also hafta re-align projection based on effect of Int'l Women's Day falling on Friday hence inflating the OD. But (155-160)m looks likely even after factoring in all of that.

SS also had to deal with horrid reviews. Maybe it would have actually done better if the reviews were glowing.

 

[Erzengel]

I didn't realize I had to go back to last June to see what was the last movie that grossed more than $100M OW.

 

[Web-Head]

Just checked my theater for tonight at 7 and the IMAX is basically sold out. Even more full than last night. I just hope it has some decent legs

 

[Fallen]

Second-highest opening day in Brazil, behind only Infinity War!

 

[shinlyle]

This film doing well means even better news for Endgame. That movie will just has to be DECENT, and it will crush records in ways that should last...months.

 

[Fallen]

Second-highest opening day ever in Vietnam, behind Infinity War!

 

[Erzengel]

Even if this movie only does $500M, it'll officially push the MCU franchise over $18B WW.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

‘Captain Marvel’ Darting To Super $156M-$160M Opening – Midday Update

FRIDAY MIDDAY UPDATE: At this point in time Captain Marvel is eyeing a $63.5M Friday, including her $20.7M Thursday night haul. That figure is just under Beauty and the Beast‘s first day of $63.77M (which turned around a $174.7M opening, the best ever in March), and under Batman v. Superman‘s Good Friday haul of $81.55M on March 25, 2016 which grossed a 3-day of $166M.

Where does this put Captain Marvel stateside? Industry estimates predict between $156M and $160M, possibly more. Again, it’s early, these numbers can fluctuate, etc., but it’s quite clear: There’s a lot of business going on this weekend in multiplexes around the world. With guys being the dominant moviegoer last night, the question is whether more women will make a date today to watch Carol Danvers on International Women’s Day.

 

[Naglfar]

Edit: What Baela wrote

 

[Iceman]

Second-highest opening day in Brazil, behind only Infinity War!

This is doing much better than I thought in so many different markets.

 

[Iceman]

This film doing well means even better news for Endgame. That movie will just has to be DECENT, and it will crush records in ways that should last...months.

Yes this film is going to give a nice boost to Endgame as will CM herself being in it. If decent it will crush records, and imagine if it’s way better than decent!