The most bizarre part of that article is the first part where it states it should finish north of 400 million domestically. And then immediately follows it with 700-800 million WW?????????? The combo of saying 400 million domestic but 700-800 WW makes no sense. It has already grossed 300 million international for cripes sake. Jeebus Deadline, who taught you math!?
The most bizarre part of that article is the first part where it states it should finish north of 400 million domestically. And then immediately follows it with 700-800 million WW?????????? The combo of saying 400 million domestic but 700-800 WW makes no sense. It has already grossed 300 million international for cripes sake. Jeebus Deadline, who taught you math!?
yup....that is weird. Nowadays it is easy to predict which movies will gross > $1B. As long as they do well domestically and china, a billion is a lock.
You still need a second weekend to get a better idea of how things will play out, though. China in particular can be tricky with things just collapsing.
The most bizarre part of that article is the first part where it states it should finish north of 400 million domestically. And then immediately follows it with 700-800 million WW?????????? The combo of saying 400 million domestic but 700-800 WW makes no sense. It has already grossed 300 million international for cripes sake. Jeebus Deadline, who taught you math!?
It beat the Wonder Woman opening over here in Finland. Wonder Woman opened with 11 207 viewers in 117 screens, 74 668 overall run. Captain Marvel's opening 5 days was 56 168 viewers, 36 500 of which was during the weekend in 108 screens.
Well, I didn't get to see it this past weekend. Had a beach weekend with the family, got back too late to go back out. So, I'll be contributing to the second weekend gross.
Others:
Deadpool | 132 | 420 | 3.18
Deadpool 2 | 174.9 | 460.5 | 2.63
TDKR | 141.8 | 636.8 | 4.49 | TDKR was released 1 week later in Latin America so I add OW of this region (2nd global weekend) to global OW
WW | 125 | 409.3 | 3.27
Aquaman | 171.4 | 809.6 | 4.72
BvS | 256.5 | 543.3 | 2.12
SS | 133.3 | 421.7 | 3.16
ASM | 120.3 | 495.9 | 4.12
ASM 2 | 172.3 | 506.1 | 2.94
DoFP | 172 | 513.9 | 2.99
JL | 185 | 428.9 | 2.32
Venom | 245.4 | 641.5 | 2.61
So if CM has BvS-level leg in overseas market, total OS number should be at least 303 x 2.12 = 642M. This is worst case scenario. To gross 1B the movie only needs 358M more from domestic markets (or 2.33x multiple). Needless to say this should be very doable for an original movie with female lead.
Regarding domestic leg, 10 worst multiple for superhero movies are:
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice | 1,99
X-Men Origins: Wolverine | 2,11
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 | 2,21
Spider-Man 3 | 2,23
Captain America: Civil War | 2,28
X-Men: The Last Stand | 2,28
Iron Man 3 | 2,35
Avengers: Age of Ultron | 2,4
Thor: The Dark World | 2,41
Suicide Squad | 2,43
So among MCU movies, CM will need leg worse than Civil War and IM3 to miss 358M.
(Btw I think some people might want movies' multiple so I whipped this up (top 50 movies in terms of domestic gross)
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice | 330360194 | 166007347 | 1,99
X-Men Origins: Wolverine | 179883157 | 85058003 | 2,11
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 | 202853933 | 91608337 | 2,21
Spider-Man 3 | 336530303 | 151116516 | 2,23
Captain America: Civil War | 408084349 | 179139142 | 2,28
X-Men: The Last Stand | 234362462 | 102750665 | 2,28
Iron Man 3 | 409013994 | 174144585 | 2,35
Avengers: Age of Ultron | 459005868 | 191271109 | 2,4
Thor: The Dark World | 206362140 | 85737841 | 2,41
Suicide Squad | 325100054 | 133682248 | 2,43
Iron Man 2 | 312433331 | 128122480 | 2,44
Justice League | 229024295 | 93842239 | 2,44
Man of Steel | 291045518 | 116619362 | 2,5
X2: X-Men United | 214949694 | 85558731 | 2,51
Logan (2017) | 226277068 | 88411916 | 2,56
Thor: Ragnarok | 315058289 | 122744989 | 2,57
X-Men: Days of Future Past | 233921534 | 90823660 | 2,58
Deadpool 2 | 324591735 | 125507153 | 2,59
Avengers: Infinity War | 678815482 | 257698183 | 2,63
Venom (2018) | 213515506 | 80255756 | 2,66
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 | 389813101 | 146510104 | 2,66
Captain America: The Winter Soldier | 259766572 | 95023721 | 2,73
Doctor Strange | 232641920 | 85058311 | 2,74
Deadpool | 363070709 | 132434639 | 2,74
Thor | 181030624 | 65723338 | 2,75
The Dark Knight Rises | 448139099 | 160887295 | 2,79
Spider-Man: Homecoming | 334201140 | 117027503 | 2,86
Ant-Man and the Wasp | 216648740 | 75812205 | 2,86
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (2014) | 191204754 | 65575105 | 2,92
Marvel's The Avengers | 623357910 | 207438708 | 3,01
Ant-Man | 180202163 | 57225526 | 3,15
Iron Man | 318412101 | 98618668 | 3,23
Incredibles 2 | 608581744 | 182687905 | 3,33
The Dark Knight | 535234033 | 158411483 | 3,38
Black Panther | 700059566 | 202003951 | 3,47
Batman Forever | 184031112 | 52784433 | 3,49
Spider-Man | 403706375 | 114844116 | 3,52
Guardians of the Galaxy | 333176600 | 94320883 | 3,53
Hancock | 227946274 | 62603879 | 3,64
The Incredibles | 261441092 | 70467623 | 3,71
Superman Returns | 200081192 | 52535096 | 3,81
Big Hero 6 | 222527828 | 56215889 | 3,96
Wonder Woman | 412563408 | 103251471 | 4
The Amazing Spider-Man | 262030663 | 62004688 | 4,23
Spider-Man 2 | 373585825 | 88156227 | 4,24
Batman Begins | 206852432 | 48745440 | 4,24
Aquaman | 334036292 | 67873522 | 4,92
Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse | 188791064 | 35363376 | 5,34
Batman | 251188924 | 40489746 | 6,2
Once Upon a Deadpool | 324591735 | 2683200 | 120,97
Yeah. A 2.4 multiplier across the board would put it close to 1.1B.
It’s obviously not going to get that everywhere, but on average it seems doable (especially for a franchise starter even though the MCU is its own thing BO wise).
I would be absolutely livid if it doesn’t crack a billion with this opening.
Yeah. A 2.4 multiplier across the board would put it close to 1.1B.
It’s obviously not going to get that everywhere, but on average it seems doable (especially for a franchise starter even though the MCU is its own thing BO wise).
I would be absolutely livid if it doesn’t crack a billion with this opening.
The family audience tends to be relatively back-loaded. We didn't bring any kids on opening night, as we tend to like to scout out the movie first, to see if it's really appropriate, but we are going to have more of a family outing later, maybe more than one.
After seeing the movie today for myself, I think it will leg out to a 3x multiple domestically. It’s the kind of movie that lends itself to multiple viewings like Wonder Woman.
Well, I didn't get to see it this past weekend. Had a beach weekend with the family, got back too late to go back out. So, I'll be contributing to the second weekend gross.
Billion is a lock. Film will have bigger second week drop like most MCU films, but that’s mostly due to them having the most loyal fans in all of films. We don’t wait till the second weekend.
So, post IW, I was thinking that Marvel made a really, really smart move when they delayed CM to just before Endgame was released. Mind you, back in the days when I actually had time to hang out on the boards, I was one of the biggest whiners when it came to the release delay(s). I've noticed that, collectively (oh god, does that make me a socialist??), we do a pretty good job when it comes to box office predictions. In this case, we whiffed.
I think 2 big reasons are that we underestimated what the pent-up desire for female character leads in SH movies is
We underestimated the pent-up desire people have to see female leads in SH movies
Playing between, and being integral to, what are clearly the 2 monsters (amongst monsters) of the MCU created a huge bump in the box office appeal.
I remember when we were talking (like forever.....) about who should be cast as CM....I was wrong (as were most) and Marvel was right. Charismatic, talented, and, well, hot ended up being quite the good combination.
You still need a second weekend to get a better idea of how things will play out, though. China in particular can be tricky with things just collapsing.
But that’s priced in as many of the other overseas market are more leggy than average and this film has performed very well overseas ex-China. If China suffers only from its usually terrible legs then CM will go over the billion mark with room to spare. If it’s even worse than usual then things get a bit tighter, but I expect a billion even with a China collapse (which I’m half expecting given the splits for the individual days and the revised down expectations over the course of the weekend). The other markets are more predictable though and this has been strong across the board and is ahead of course on a route to a billion, with some room to spare to weather some trouble ahead. It would take a coordinated collapse amongst the key markets rather than just China failing from here on out to now miss.
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