Dark Phoenix $ The DARK PHOENIX Box Office Speculation ThreaD $

[Orba]

This film is likely going to struggle to cross the $500 million mark worldwide. Apocalypse made under $400 million Overseas, and that was coming of DoFP which should have given it a bump. With domestic forecasts of $100-125 million which are well below the $155 million Apocalypse managed a global of $543million like Apocalypse seems like a big stretch.

 

[psylockolussus]

This film is likely going to struggle to cross the $500 million mark worldwide. Apocalypse made under $400 million Overseas, and that was coming of DoFP which should have given it a bump. With domestic forecasts of $100-125 million which are well below the $155 million Apocalypse managed a global of $543million like Apocalypse seems like a big stretch.

It just seems obvious that its the kind of movie that would underperform at the box office. X-Men have faced audience fatigue before and its eXperiencing it once again.

If War of the Planet of the Apes, Solo, Bumblebee, all underperformed for different reasons, and earned less than $500 million worldwide when their predecessor earned at least 700 million. Dark PhoeniX underperforming is a no brainer.

Plus like I've said before, Apocalypse wouldn't even outgross X3's worldwide gross if it wasn't for China and Apocalypse earned less than 550 million worldwide. Yikes!

 

[Davidstorm]

I was here analyzing the performance on youtube of the films and their box office, I do not know if this is valid but at the moment only to use this as the basis for something

DP has a similar performance but a little better than XMFC
DP: Trailer 1: 19m
Trailer 2: 10m
Final Trailer: must be between 3-4m

XMFC: Trailer 1: 16m
final trailer: 1,7m

so I think DP (if it's a good movie) will perform a bit better than XMFC at the box office but it will not reach the XMA numbers.

 

[Manasrepublic]

In the United States I see making it 150m total. In the World I could see making it 600m

US + Rest of the World = 750m total.

A Fox movie about the X-Men would never reach 1 billion.

This is a genuinely accurate take of what could happen

How do you explain the rather expected low box office opening prediction for the film though? Do you think it’s because audiences are hoping for Kinberg craft a new hot vision within the MCU? Or are audiences waiting for this cast to join via parallel dimension into the MCU?

As an aside I am enthusiastic for your $750 mill global earthquake prediction. That is achievable with this level of talent... Covfefe

 

[samsnee]

No it's not. International will not make that much for reasons already outlined by other posters that are smarter than me.

 

[psylockolussus]

I was here analyzing the performance on youtube of the films and their box office, I do not know if this is valid but at the moment only to use this as the basis for something

DP has a similar performance but a little better than XMFC
DP: Trailer 1: 19m
Trailer 2: 10m
Final Trailer: must be between 3-4m

XMFC: Trailer 1: 16m
final trailer: 1,7m

so I think DP (if it's a good movie) will perform a bit better than XMFC at the box office but it will not reach the XMA numbers.

Oh God! **facepalm**

Movie trailers back in 2011 rarely get 20 million views. And YouTube usage through cellphones have increased since then! like c'mon.

 

[DACrowe]

It will perform poorly no matter what. The WOM is toxic.

How bad it will perform will probably be determined by the reviews. If they're good-ish (don't laugh, I recall how fans expected DOFP to be received poorly and Apocalypse to be received well based on DOFP afterward), I bet it opens in the $50-$55 million range. Maybe slightly more if they're great (that seems unlikely given the trailers). If they're bad, yeah $40-$48 million seems reasonable. If they're Suicide Squad/BvS levels toxic, maybe even lower.

China will likely keep this above $400 million WW, but $500 million WW seems in doubt.

 

[Davidstorm]

Oh God! **facepalm**

Movie trailers back in 2011 rarely get 20 million views. And YouTube usage through cellphones have increased since then! like c'mon.

I know darling, lessen your hunger for irony.

I'm just speculating, after all this space was created for that .., at that moment all prediction is based on social networks and comparisons with past films, I was clear in saying that probably my point of view is not valid.

 

[psylockolussus]

Classy, taking a jab at a poster when its obvious to see "your method of speculation" is so bad. You obviously didn't know that YouTube usage increased from 2011 to 2019 with the rise of mobile phones with internet surfing or else you wouldn't use First Class' youtube views to say that Dark PhoeniX would do better at the boX office. Seriously you are genius for that. We should use that method to predict a film's box office performance from now on!

 

[EnDz0n3]

Reposting from the other thread:

So Spidey Far From Home has moved up three days from July 5th to July 2nd. Presumably this is to take advantage of the 4th of July holiday which falls on that Thursday.

Not that Dark Phoenix would still be a thing by either date. Apocalypse on its 4th week of release only made $5Mil. For the optimists among us, even the leggier DOFP on its 4th week of release was at $9Mil.

 

[icekid]

Can someone correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t think BO projections a month and a half out were a thing back in 2016. I can’t find any type of tracking data to see if Apocalypse was projected similarly, all were from relatively close to its release, 2-3 weeks out as opposed to 8. So I’m not sure how much I read into the forecast as similar advanced projections have been known to fluctuate by wide margins as the weeks close in.

 

[EnDz0n3]

Only boxoffice.com (which is boxofficepro.com) does the "Long Range Forecast" as far as I am aware. Brad from BoxOfficeMojo, Gitesh from BoxOfficeGuru, Mendelson from Forbes and the like do not. Gavin Feng (for the Chinese market) is fairly new. I do remember BoxOfficeMojo doing a pre-summer article in 2014 enumerating the films that could potentially join the Billion Dollar Club. DOFP was one of them...

Here's boxoffice.com's long range forecast for Apocalypse. As I've mentioned in a previous post I don't know how they could've come up with that number. Singer, Kinberg et al knew Apocalypse was in trouble. They knew the awareness of the picture was so low they had to take drastic measures, up to and including lifting the embargo on the reviews to get the word out that an X-men movie was coming out, not caring if the reviews would actually be good or bad.

For another example of a long range forecast from this franchise, here's their take on Logan. $7Mil difference...not bad a prediction for being 2 months out. Other recent examples from that site are Captain Marvel's $160 projection vs. $153 actual; Shazam!'s $45 vs $53.

So glass half full, Dark Phoenix might go up to $53-55Mil opening weekend? But that's with Shazam!'s 91% Certified Fresh Tomatometer rating.

 

[Orba]

Can someone correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t think BO projections a month and a half out were a thing back in 2016. I can’t find any type of tracking data to see if Apocalypse was projected similarly, all were from relatively close to its release, 2-3 weeks out as opposed to 8. So I’m not sure how much I read into the forecast as similar advanced projections have been known to fluctuate by wide margins as the weeks close in.

From 1st of April 2016

Long Range Forecast: ‘X-Men: Apocalypse’ & ‘Alice Through the Looking Glass’

plus looking at their other Long Range Forecasts.
(4 Day Weekend Forecasts)

1st April - $124million
15th April - $120million
22nd April - $115million
13th May - $95million

It ended up having an $80million Memorial Weekend

 

[icekid]

Only boxoffice.com (which is boxofficepro.com) does the "Long Range Forecast" as far as I am aware. Brad from BoxOfficeMojo, Gitesh from BoxOfficeGuru, Mendelson from Forbes and the like do not. Gavin Feng (for the Chinese market) is fairly new. I do remember BoxOfficeMojo doing a pre-summer article in 2014 enumerating the films that could potentially join the Billion Dollar Club. DOFP was one of them...

Here's boxoffice.com's long range forecast for Apocalypse. As I've mentioned in a previous post I don't know how they could've come up with that number. Singer, Kinberg et al knew Apocalypse was in trouble. They knew the awareness of the picture was so low they had to take drastic measures, up to and including lifting the embargo on the reviews to get the word out that an X-men movie was coming out, not caring if the reviews would actually be good or bad.

For another example of a long range forecast from this franchise, here's their take on Logan. $7Mil difference...not bad a prediction for being 2 months out. Other recent examples from that site are Captain Marvel's $160 projection vs. $153 actual; Shazam!'s $45 vs $53.

So glass half full, Dark Phoenix might go up to $53-55Mil opening weekend? But that's with Shazam!'s 91% Certified Fresh Tomatometer rating.

Hmm interesting. I don’t think it will actually okay out that low but rather have a stronger run with less of a sharp decline week to week if not a moderate debut weekend because of general expectations going in. It’s a summer of spectacle and wow and I think the story driven and dramatic flair of the trailers is what may be causing buzz around the film to be rather murky when comparing it to this season’s competition.

 

[DACrowe]

Yep, would've done better in February, but those reshoots which might save it quality-wise have pretty much left it to be slaughtered at the box office. Then again, it's on Fox considering Apocalypse opened at a reasonable number just three years earlier.

 

[psylockolussus]

65 opening weekend from Dofp's 90 opening weekend was not a good look!

 

[EnDz0n3]

June 7th:
Dark Phoenix
Secret Life of Pets 2

June 14th:
MIB International
Shaft

June 21st:
Toy Story 4
Child's Play

June 28th:
Annabelle

July 3rd:
Spidey

 

[icekid]

Yeaaaah. June was basically the worst possible month but there was no way they would have managed to wrap post on the new shoot in 3 months. Alas, it’s showbiz, no one will ever be upfront about an issue. EVER.


I think if they release a review embargo within the last 2, maaaybe 3 weeks, they can gain some additional on the opening weekend. Unless the Box Office in general has a record breaking June, meaning there’s record intake and no dramatic decline on most releases but a shift back for the new top film which will be each new weekly major release, that’s the only way I see this topping Apocalypse or at least coming nearing Logan’s worldwide take. I know I’m probable alone on this but honestly being the only one that can speak from a place where my feeling is justified, I feel it kind of deserves that, at least.

 

[SumT]

June 7th:
Dark Phoenix: 47m

June 14th:
Dark Phoenix: 19m

June 21st:
Dark Phoenix: 8m

June 28th:
Dark Phoenix: 3m

July 3rd:
Dark Phoenix: out of theatres

 

[psylockolussus]

Apocalypse only had 9 weeks in America. I wouldn't be surprised if Dark PhoeniX's theater run in America is shorter.

 

[martinp1]

gonna b hard to reach 100 mil domestic in the US..

internationally should perform double what it does here..

prediction 300 mil

 

[psylockolussus]

That would be quite low for the series.

 

[Ordet]

Reach 600ww will be quite easy.

Will be hard make more than 700.

 

[EnDz0n3]

How is $600Mil easy? Apocalypse only made it to $540Mil.

If this movie can't reach $150Mil in the US, it will be hard for it to get to $600Mil worldwide. I doubt it'll make $450Mil Overseas, though China (and Brazil?) might help it get closer.

 

[Manasrepublic]

Kinberg’s stewardship will propel this to gold. People are taking note that this is The last X-men film in a long time and also Kinberg’s before he moves to the MCU to start afresh with Zak Penn.