Dark Phoenix $ The DARK PHOENIX Box Office Speculation ThreaD $

[Milk Tray Guy]

This is legitimately sad. What a way for this franchise to end. They couldn’t just leave it alone with DoFP and Logan could they? They would’ve had a franchise that the only bad movies were Last Stand and Origins and this franchise would have not become a joke. But they had to do Apocalypse and Dark Phoenix and really put the nail in the coffin. Great job Fox running your best franchise into the ground all because of Kinberg.

I've yet to see Dark Phoenix but I agree with your point. I'm a fan of the Fox X-series (I even enjoy TLS - although I draw the line at Origins), but DoFP would have been my perfect end to the XCU (not a massive fan of Logan).

 

[Milk Tray Guy]

I feel bad for Fassbender and McAvoy. Those two always give out their best, regardless of the material and/or script.

Yeah, I'll never hate on those guys. Two of my favorite actors and two of the best working.

Second this. Fassbender is my favourite working actor. I'll see him in other things, but I love the way he plays Magneto, even over McKellen. Sad that I won't get to see that again.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

X-Men will be fine. As the old saying goes, "Absence makes the heart grow fonder." X-Men is going to have to go on a long hiatus, is all. While that notion sucks for people like us who love the X-Men, its necessary so that when they do announce a new X-Men reboot in 2027 the world will be ready to see them back and it will be a big event. Until then, they can focus on the Fantastic Four in the nearer future.

It could be fine, but it still is likely to take a big hit. Look at Spider-Man. Maybe the most popular superhero in the world, and Homecoming did pretty good with Marvel Studios after some substandard films. But even though it did well, it is hard to argue that he wasn't tarnished in some degree when his MCU movie is still massively underperforming characters like Black Panther and Captain Marvel. Spider-Man would normally be leading the MCU in box office results, not hanging around in the middle of the pack.

 

[Spiderine]

A lot of people were expecting Kinberg to drop this turd and he didnt disappoint. It was a bad idea the moment this was announced. I expect the X brand to sit on the shelf for a while from the big screen and focus on the Deadpool corner while various X projects go to streaming service

 

[Detective Conan]

It could be fine, but it still is likely to take a big hit. Look at Spider-Man. Maybe the most popular superhero in the world, and Homecoming did pretty good with Marvel Studios after some substandard films. But even though it did well, it is hard to argue that he wasn't tarnished in some degree when his MCU movie is still massively underperforming characters like Black Panther and Captain Marvel. Spider-Man would normally be leading the MCU in box office results, not hanging around in the middle of the pack.

Not only that but Spider-Man wasn't even in that bad of a position when he was rebooted. His last pre-MCU solo movie(AMS2) while it under-preformed, it didn't flop. This looks to be the first ever X-Men film in the franchise's entire 20 year history to be a major financial failure. No Spider-Man film has ever outright flopped like this is looking to do. Even Origins and Last Stand were pretty successful. The studio didn't lose money on those. The type of performance the movie having is barely better than Fan4stic. This movie is going to open to less than Shazam domestically! A B-list property! An X-Men film should be preforming much, much, higher. Its testament to how much Fox has derailed the franchise that this is happening when it should never, ever be happening.

Its funny that when the MCU eventually reboots X--Men and Fantastic Four it will be after both had franchise-killing bombs that tainted the brand.

Anyone who doesn't want Marvel to have the X-Men after this debacle is nuts to me.

 

[kguillou]

It could be fine, but it still is likely to take a big hit. Look at Spider-Man. Maybe the most popular superhero in the world, and Homecoming did pretty good with Marvel Studios after some substandard films. But even though it did well, it is hard to argue that he wasn't tarnished in some degree when his MCU movie is still massively underperforming characters like Black Panther and Captain Marvel. Spider-Man would normally be leading the MCU in box office results, not hanging around in the middle of the pack.

True but I also believe people simply so get fatigued of a property when there is so much of it. Things that gross over a billion are novelty things: Black Panther was a novelty, Captain Marvel was novelty, the Avengers movies, even Aquaman had a uniqueness to it that the world hadnt seen before and was drawn to. Homecoming was Spiderman’s sixth movie and seventh cinematic appearance and there was a very short gap between films...just like Xmen.

I could GUARANTEE you even if Dark Phoenix was well reviewed there would still be a significant section of the audience going “oh God, ANOTHER one of these is coming out? No thanks.” People get a stomach ache when they eat too much ice cream at one time. You gotta let it digest. Xmen as a brand simply needs an extended cinematic break until such a time people have a hunger for more ice cream.

(Bad metaphor aside, you get my point lol)

 

[sleekstereo]

A lot of people were expecting Kinberg to drop this turd and he didnt disappoint. It was a bad idea the moment this was announced. I expect the X brand to sit on the shelf for a while from the big screen and focus on the Deadpool corner while various X projects go to streaming service

They've should have done a smaller, more contained storyline after Apocalypse. Not make a huge cosmic storyline a "grounded" film.

Mutant Massacre - introduce Gambit, the Marauders, and Sinister. You know an actual continuation from the last end credits!

You could have an entire film with the X-Men trapped underground protecting the Morlocks from the attack. Spending more time with Scott, Jean, Storm, and Nightcrawler as they truly become the X-Men and everything it stands for.

Or God Loves, Man Kills (faithful adaptation with Stryker becoming a religious extremist). Imagine the opening scene of that film being this:

They should have given this last film to James Mangold after Logan.

 

[JKKS085]

It could be fine, but it still is likely to take a big hit. Look at Spider-Man. Maybe the most popular superhero in the world, and Homecoming did pretty good with Marvel Studios after some substandard films. But even though it did well, it is hard to argue that he wasn't tarnished in some degree when his MCU movie is still massively underperforming characters like Black Panther and Captain Marvel. Spider-Man would normally be leading the MCU in box office results, not hanging around in the middle of the pack.

I think it’s more about bringing something new to the table than a tarnished brand. Black Panther and Captain Marvel’s success ( you can put Aquaman there too) tell the story of audiences wanting more diversity, better representation, new stories to discover and new characters to get behind. I would be genuinely surprised to see Far From Home get a massive boost after IW and Endgame, simply based on the fact that the character is at this point so omnipresent in pop-culture. As much as Marvel tries, it’s just hard to make a new chapter of the Spider-Man saga feel fresh (and I say this as someone who generally raves about Homecoming and Holland’s Spider-Man).

And I think more diversity, better representation and getting people behind new stories is precisely something that Marvel Studios can achieve with some good, long-term planning here. The mutant corner of the Marvel universe is populated with amazing characters just waiting for a proper adaptation (which I think didn’t happen yet, even in the better Fox helmed movies).

I fully expect the first MCU X movie to be an event of the magnitude of The Avengers. Just based on the sheer potential of the library of characters they just got back.

 

[Karl Tanner]

Besides the bad script, poor directing, franchise fatigue, character fatigue or even actor fatigue, casual audiences don't really care when there is no Wolverine in the film.

First Class was a good film and Dark Phoenix is bad one but both of them lack Wolverine and it's not a surprise that both of them are the worst performers in the box office. If Apocalypse didn't have that 5-min Wolverine action sequence which was irrelevant to the story it wouldn't pass 500 million. They milked that scene extensively in trailers, teasers and ads before the release. An R-rated solo Wolverine film with a $97m budget still made 620 million despite the fact that it was the character's 10th appearance or so after 17 years of constant portrayal. If anything, Wolverine should be the one with the most franchise and character fatigue.

In the end, Fox did a poor job of promoting other characters. Wolverine was already very popular to begin with so it was always gonna pull audiences, so they did OK with him but that's it. To a degree they also developed Magneto, Professor X, Mystique and Jean but that's all and that was not enough.

When there's this fact, you can't suddenly abandon Wolverine and Jackman and focus on underdeveloped characters in films with $150-200m budget. The MCU on the other hand has been very good at developing cinematic versions of rather unpopular characters.

I always knew this film was going to be a financial failure but the bad script and the poor directing made it a disastrous end. Ending the franchise with the worst box office and worst reviews surely tarnished the X-Men brand.

On the other hand, they did a good job with Deadpool, distancing it from the main franchise. Those films didn't suffer the heavy franchise and character fatigue.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Besides the bad script, poor directing, franchise fatigue, character fatigue or even actor fatigue, casual audiences don't really care when there is no Wolverine in the film.

First Class was a good film and Dark Phoenix is bad one but both of them lack Wolverine and it's not a surprise that both of them are the worst performers in the box office. If Apocalypse didn't have that 5-min Wolverine action sequence which was irrelevant to the story it wouldn't pass 500 million. They milked that scene extensively in trailers, teasers and ads before the release. An R-rated solo Wolverine film with a $97m budget still made 620 million despite the fact that it was the character's 10th appearance or so after 17 years of constant portrayal. If anything, Wolverine should be the one with the most franchise and character fatigue.

In the end, Fox did a poor job of promoting other characters. Wolverine was already very popular to begin with so it was always gonna pull audiences, so they did OK with him but that's it. To a degree they also developed Magneto, Professor X, Mystique and Jean but that's all and that was not enough.

When there's this fact, you can't suddenly abandon Wolverine and Jackman and focus on underdeveloped characters in films with $150-200m budget. The MCU on the other hand has been very good at developing cinematic versions of rather unpopular characters.

I always knew this film was going to be a financial failure but the bad script and the poor directing made it a disastrous end. Ending the franchise with the worst box office and worst reviews surely tarnished the X-Men brand.

On the other hand, they did a good job with Deadpool, distancing it from the main franchise. Those films didn't suffer the heavy franchise and character fatigue.

Certain hardcore X-Men fans never want to admit it, but whether it's cartoons, comics, games or films, commercially the franchise needs the story to be Wolverine featuring the X-Men, always has, always will.

 

[Dark Raven]

Certain hardcore X-Men fans never want to admit it, but whether it's cartoons, comics, games or films, commercially the franchise needs the story to be Wolverine featuring the X-Men, always has, always will.

I don't think it does. Say the Eternals is highly successful. That is practically an unknown group who could just as easily have been a team of completely original characters invented just for the movies. That won't have Wolverine in it to drive its success. The same with Guardians.

 

[psylockolussus]

The X-Men can succeed and thrive without the Wolverine.

A lot of people were expecting Kinberg to drop this turd and he didnt disappoint. It was a bad idea the moment this was announced. I expect the X brand to sit on the shelf for a while from the big screen and focus on the Deadpool corner while various X projects go to streaming service

Kinberg lived up to his already bad track record. And this time, he's credited as writer and director!

He is inevitable.

 

[halo10]

Didnt X3 make a 100 million in the US in 2006?

I feel the DPH will make between $25-30 M in the US this weekend.

What do you guys think?

X-Men: The Last Stand (2006) - Box Office Mojo

you're right.
i stand corrected .

 

[psylockolussus]

$30 million or below than that is just embarassing especially if we consider years of price inflation, 3d, Imax, 4dx and those premium cinemas which a film like X3 didn't have in 2006.

 

[ludovica]

They've should have done a smaller, more contained storyline after Apocalypse. Not make a huge cosmic storyline a "grounded" film.

Mutant Massacre - introduce Gambit, the Marauders, and Sinister. You know an actual continuation from the last end credits!

You could have an entire film with the X-Men trapped underground protecting the Morlocks from the attack. Spending more time with Scott, Jean, Storm, and Nightcrawler as they truly become the X-Men and everything it stands for.

Or God Loves, Man Kills (faithful adaptation with Stryker becoming a religious extremist). Imagine the opening scene of that film being this:

They should have given this last film to James Mangold after Logan.

The half full glass here is that the MCU could still use those stories. And do a better job than Fox ever could I suspect.

That Essex post credit scene... It shows how much uncoordinated and not thought out all this universe was, I mean, what did they even had in mind?

 

[TheNewSlayer]

Certain hardcore X-Men fans never want to admit it, but whether it's cartoons, comics, games or films, commercially the franchise needs the story to be Wolverine featuring the X-Men, always has, always will.

You're very wrong. Wolverine died in the comics in 2014 only returning this year, and yet the X-Men had plenty great stories without him. The most recent one involving Jean Grey as the main character was X-Men Red, it had 11 issues and an annual. It was amazing. Got a lot of love and no Wolverine in it.

 

[psylockolussus]

Wolverine was resurrected last year.

The half full glass here is that the MCU could still use those stories. And do a better job than Fox ever could I suspect.

That Essex post credit scene... It shows how much uncoordinated and not thought out all this universe was, I mean, what did they even had in mind?

Yeah thats why I'm not even mad that Kinberg didn't use Sinister, because it would have been another bad character adaptation if he used him in the film.

 

[TheNewSlayer]

The half full glass here is that the MCU could still use those stories. And do a better job than Fox ever could I suspect.

That Essex post credit scene... It shows how much uncoordinated and not thought out all this universe was, I mean, what did they even had in mind?

The Essex post credit scene it was terrible. Totally disconnect with the audience. Many people who waited said it WTF was that? Should have been something more excited than something more enigmatic. People in charge at Fox have no clue what the audience wants in terms of X-Men.

The X-Women scene in Dark Phoenix was terrible. A lot of people hated it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwqcVe31GtQ&t
What were they thinking?

 

[Frankeh]

Certain hardcore X-Men fans never want to admit it, but whether it's cartoons, comics, games or films, commercially the franchise needs the story to be Wolverine featuring the X-Men, always has, always will.

This is not true. That is the work of Bryan Singer and David Hayter and Lauren Shuler Donner coming back to bite them in the ass.

 

[psylockolussus]

X-Men movies, even the generally good ones, aren't very leggy. We're probably looking at a best-case-scenario of $97 million domestic and a doomsday scenario of around $73 million. With a continual focus on the Xavier v Magneto: Dawn Of Ideologies stories at the expense of every other narrative (or character-specific) avenue, the franchise about evolution refused to evolve. Barring a fluke, it died yesterday.
Box Office: 'X-Men: Dark Phoenix' Bombs With Catastrophic $14 Million Friday

Yikes.

 

[Maestro216]

This is brand damaging.

Marvel Entertainment and Marvel Studios now are tasked to pull their once TOP characters and universe out the brink of disaster.

Thanks Fox and Kinberg.

*Goes into carbon sleep for five years*

 

[EnDz0n3]

I wonder if it was Kinberg's idea to drop the "X-Men" title from the film and simply call it "Dark Phoenix". Maybe he thought it was going to be like the Dark Knight and that since that film didn't have Batman in the title but fans still responded positively to that, then maybe lightning would also strike for him.

Perhaps he even thought he was going to be making the Dark Knight of X-Men movies.

But then on the opening evening when the film opened to poor reviews and box office totals, Kinberg probably thought: "Damn... this is a dark night."

Yes he actually said that. And there's a video of it. See my sig for the link from Lincoln Journal Star.

Also the day Dark Phoenix came out, there was an article on the main SHH page where they quoted Kinberg as saying this is the X-men's "Civil War."

"China will save this."
"$500 million worldwide."

"It won't be scary (I think he meant surprising) if Dark Phoenix makes $120Mil 4-day opening weekend in China."
"That $47-55Mil Domestic Opening weekend forecast is too low. You guys have an agenda."

 

[Gold Samurai]

It could be fine, but it still is likely to take a big hit. Look at Spider-Man. Maybe the most popular superhero in the world, and Homecoming did pretty good with Marvel Studios after some substandard films. But even though it did well, it is hard to argue that he wasn't tarnished in some degree when his MCU movie is still massively underperforming characters like Black Panther and Captain Marvel. Spider-Man would normally be leading the MCU in box office results, not hanging around in the middle of the pack.

Most of what's in your post is MCU related and that's what audiences have been overwhelmed with for the past 10 years

X-men has been flying off in different directions with no endgame(No pun intended)

We had first class
Then back to reliving nostalgic times with DOFP
Then a standalone with Logan
Then Apocalypse shows up(with no build up) Then they tease Dark phoenix(which should have been built up too)

Then we come back a few years. Most people have forgotten "Apocalypse" so theres really no hype about "Phoenix"

 

[ironman_rick]

The first x-men grossed $296M WW at the boxoffice. Well i guess the last x-men movie from fox (i don't think new mutants will hit theatres after this movie) will gross around this ball-park figure when its all said and done.

Life is a circle. Haha

 

[Shuri]

Unless you mean by "something," leaking video of Simon Kinberg being led out of the studio by security holding a cardboard box.

Damn.