Dark Phoenix $ The DARK PHOENIX Box Office Speculation ThreaD $

[Kahran Ramsus]

There's nothing wrong with heavily serialized film.series and it makes more exciting to see the story of the characters progress than future unologies like the New Mutants and Gambit (if it starts filming in less than six months).

I personally like it. I just understand where some like DACrowe do not.

 

[psylockolussus]

The big difference is that Jackman (and Stewart) were very popular in their roles (even when their movies weren't great, it was almost universally agreed that they personally were). So being the last film with them in it, would generate additional interest over the average installment. See the big increase for Harry Potter & The Deathly Hallows Part 2 for the same thing happening.

This is not the case with Dark Phoenix. As much as I like McAvoy and Fassbender, none of this cast has achieved the same iconic status of Jackman. And the general response is less that we have to see the end of the story and more it can't burn down quick enough so we can get to the MCU version. That doesn't bode well for big box office numbers.

Another thing working against this film that I forgot to mention before, is the sense of been there/done that. No matter what happens with Disney, it doesn't change the fact that this is the second time in this franchise about Dark Phoenix. Even if it is done better this time it will still hit many of the same story beats. The story just isn't fresh or different whereas Logan was.

Yes another been there and done that kind of movie and I just find it so unwise for Fox to let Kinberg touch the Phoenix Saga for the second time. And there was not even consideration (that we know of) to find another director/writer after he screwed up the screenplays of XA/F4, so I guess they only saw the directors of those films as the usual suspects and Kinberg got to return.

But then again, I'd rather have Kinberg screw up Dark Phoenix for the second time, than Mr Sinister, Fall of the Mutants or any of the iconic storylines/characters we have yet to see in the big screen.

 

[GuestStar2004]

There are certain people you know it would kill inside if DP actually did well.

I think the Disney deal has made some people abit more cocky and open to being honest now and while they will try and fit back into that pretending to be cautious routine you know that there is a little bit inside them that hopes kinberg will mess up the next film.

Mostly for pride though.

 

[SumT]

nothing about that has to do with the topic's tittle and poll.

what about staying on topic? oh, I get, its better to talk about "fanbase is this or that" because.... well... "it makes me look better" or something

 

[DACrowe]

Yes but is Batman and the Joker falling off a building an iconic storyline? The equivalent to doing Dark Phoenix in quick succession would be doing something like The Killing Joke storyline with specific story beats 11 years apart.

I honestly don't think anyone except hardcore fans remember a whole lot about X3. It was a bad movie that made money but left zero impressions. The Phoenix in that never had fire, never went to space, and was not even the central focus of that awful movie.

Just as there was overlap between seeing Batman vs. Joker, or Bruce Wayne romancing Selina Kyle, there will be overlap here. It is up to Simon Kinberg to deliver something significantly different and better than that. And he better since he dipped into this well a second time.

Plus, again if the first teaser features Jean Grey going the full star child, a la 2001, while floating in space, it will look quite different than anything ever done in a superhero movie. That is how you hook audiences. If it is just a beat for beat replay of X3, this movie has much bigger issues than how to market it.

 

[Iceman]

There are certain people you know it would kill inside if DP actually did well.

I think the Disney deal has made some people abit more cocky and open to being honest now and while they will try and fit back into that pretending to be cautious routine you know that there is a little bit inside them that hopes kinberg will mess up the next film.

Not just because the Disney deal but for pride.

What is the benefit of DP going wrong now? It would tarnish the name for X-Men if it did and dampen hype for a MCU X-Men film debut.

 

[Iceman]

I honestly don't think anyone except hardcore fans remember a whole lot about X3. It was a bad movie that made money but left zero impressions. The Phoenix in that never had fire, never went to space, and was not even the central focus of that awful movie.

Just as there was overlap between seeing Batman vs. Joker, or Bruce Wayne romancing Selina Kyle, there will be overlap here. It is up to Simon Kinberg to deliver something significantly different and better than that. And he better since he dipped into this well a second time.

Plus, again if the first teaser features Jean Grey going the full star child, a la 2001, while floating in space, it will look quite different than anything ever done in a superhero movie. That is how you hook audiences. If it is just a beat for beat replay of X3, this movie has much bigger issues than how to market it.

I hope you're right that the GA have forgotten X3! A star child scene would be awesome for this film.

 

[DACrowe]

There are certain people you know it would kill inside if DP actually did well.

I think the Disney deal has made some people abit more cocky and open to being honest now and while they will try and fit back into that pretending to be cautious routine you know that there is a little bit inside them that hopes kinberg will mess up the next film.

Mostly for pride though.

Oh even if it gets good reviews and is actually good (I have doubts about Kinberg ever making a great movie by himself), they will never admit it. They will go in and pick all the (presumably many) differences between it and comics. Mind you Age of Ultron and Civil War weren't exactly faithful retellings of their stories.

I do expect its box office to be less than DOFP even with lit marketing and good reviews. But if it can clear $600 million WW, I actually think Fox will probably be fine (assuming anyone who greenlit it is still around by this time next year). However, it will not be MCU money, especially with Avengers 3 and 4 stacked to make about $2 billion in as many years. So you'll hear a lot about that too, no matter the quality of DP.

 

[GuestStar2004]

What is the benefit of DP going wrong now? It would tarnish the name for X-Men if it did and dampen hype for a MCU X-Men film debut.

I think it's gonna come down to more pride then the Disney deal tbh.

Because many have spent spent so much timenothing but say how it's gonna suck how many would actually be willing to swallow their pride if it didn't suck?

At the moment its premature nitpick central

 

[GuestStar2004]

Mind you Age of Ultron and Civil War weren't exactly faithful retellings of their stories.

Don't most comic book movies take a lot of liberties though?

 

[DACrowe]

Don't most comic book movies take a lot of liberties though?

Yes, but if Dark Phoenix turns out to actually be a good movie, against all expectation, it will be where they have to draw the hate from. I mean Iron Man 2 kind of tried to do Demon in the Bottle without the Demon in the Bottle. Thor: Ragnarok did the tragedy of Ragnarok, as an inspirational comedy. But you know, it is Marvel, so we are not going to talk about that.

 

[Iceman]

I think it's gonna come down to more pride then the Disney deal tbh.

Because many have spent spent so much timenothing but say how it's gonna suck how many would actually be willing to swallow their pride if it didn't suck?

At the moment its premature nitpick central

I hope not.

Whatever anyone's opinions in the past the future should be more united, eventually at least. No point wanting DP to fail now as it doing well can help MCU X-Men. And anyone who is very much into the Fox-verse will obviously want DP to do well too, and will hopefully enjoy the future MCU X-films as well.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Assuming the Disney deal goes through, then whether DP is successful or not is of no consequence. Marvel will reboot, period. Marvel or bust fans won't care because they will have already gotten what they wanted.

As for me, I will be pleasantly surprised if it turns out to be great and be there to see it. I am just highly skeptical given Kinberg's track record. He has earned no benefit of a doubt. But if he pulls it off, then great.

 

[Iceman]

Assuming the Disney deal goes through, then whether DP is successful or not is of no consequence. Marvel will reboot, period. Marvel or bust fans won't care because they will have already gotten what they wanted.

As for me, I will be pleasantly surprised if it turns out to be great and be there to see it. I am just highly skeptical given Kinberg's track record. He has earned no benefit of a doubt. But if he pulls it off, then great.

If it's great though it might help the eventual MCU X-film. In the same way that the Fant4stic reboot will hurt the MCU F4 whenever they bring it back.

 

[psylockolussus]

I see this opening lower than $50 million. $70 million tops for the opening weekend.

 

[X-Maniac]

Don't most comic book movies take a lot of liberties though?

Yes. But if fans can see the spirit of the comic book on screen, its essence, then more liberties can be taken (as with many of Marvel's offerings). You then feel it's a representation or extension of the original material, not something pooping all over it.

Deadpool is a great example of how everyone was pleased. The director's love of the comics showed. The star's love of the character showed (now if only J-Law's commitment was that obvious!). Fans loved it and the mainstream loved it too. Marketing was great too.

 

[Frankeh]

Because many have spent spent so much timenothing but say how it's gonna suck how many would actually be willing to swallow their pride if it didn't suck?

Did you swallow your pride when it was revealed Singer was MIA for Apocalypse?

Nope.

 

[psylockolussus]

I hope you're right that the GA have forgotten X3! A star child scene would be awesome for this film.

It is more memorable than First Class. Also, the wolverine and Days of Future Past made it more fresh to the minds of the public by acknowledging it. Phoenix going nuts AGAIN would only make the public remember X3 and compare both films.

 

[GuestStar2004]

Did you swallow your pride when it was revealed Singer was MIA for Apocalypse?

Oh get a grip, he was clearly on set through most of the scenes that made it to film so how much was he not there to have made a difference?

Oh it was said he wasn't there at times so i am wrong... ok i guess that was the ghost of Singer on set all those times.

There is nothing to swallow my pride for here.

 

[X-Maniac]

Dark Phoenix box office could go either way.

Final films in a series (The Last Stand, Logan) can do well as cinematic swansongs. Even though X3 wasn't totally the end.

The Disney takeover could have all sorts of effects.

Then there's the absence of Jackman and any other original cast members. They should have had Kelsey Grammer's Beast finding a way to invent some way of transmitting a message back in time to warn about Dark Phoenix or something like that.

Then there's the rehashing of the Phoenix story from X3. Will it feel 'been there, done that'?

And it's up against the live-action Mulan.

 

[psylockolussus]

Mulan is no longer getting a November 2018 release.

I see this having bad legs at the box office. It is opening against another Disney film and will be competing with the Crimes of Grindelwald, Stole Christmas, Breaks the Internet, the Four Realms and Conundrum in the following weeks. And if Venom does well with the reviews, it would steal.Dark Phoenix's thunder.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Did you swallow your pride when it was revealed Singer was MIA for Apocalypse?

Nope.

Singer was MIA on Apocalypse?

I knew the rumors about Trank on Fant4stic with much of the film allegedly being ghost-directed by Kinberg, but this is the first I've heard about Apocalypse.

 

[psylockolussus]

The Disney takeover could have all sorts of effects.

I can see Disney giving a half assed campaign for Dark Phoenix, as it doesn't benefit MCU in the long run. And who knows they probably don't think it would do well in the first place so I don't see them putting much effort into the marketing.

 

[psylockolussus]

Dark Phoenix box office could go either way.

Final films in a series (The Last Stand, Logan) can do well as cinematic swansongs. Even though X3 wasn't totally the end.

The Disney takeover could have all sorts of effects.

Then there's the absence of Jackman and any other original cast members. They should have had Kelsey Grammer's Beast finding a way to invent some way of transmitting a message back in time to warn about Dark Phoenix or something like that.

Then there's the rehashing of the Phoenix story from X3. Will it feel 'been there, done that'?

And it's up against the live-action Mulan.

Well we know, the cast of First Class/Apocalypse didn't resonate much with the public as much as the beloved original cast.

And the underperformance of Justice League should be an eye opener. If the predecessor sucked, it's more likely that the sequel would do worse or open lower at the box office (see The Last Knight, the Road Trip, Collision Course and Salazar's Revenge) and the like those movies, this is coming from a franchise that has been showing audience fatigue in different periods.

 

[X-Maniac]

Singer was MIA on Apocalypse?

I knew the rumors about Trank on Fant4stic with much of the film allegedly being ghost-directed by Kinberg, but this is the first I've heard about Apocalypse.

We've been over and over this, it's getting exhausting!

His no-show behaviour on X:A (and also Superman Returns) was confirmed by the Hollywood Reporter when it wrote of Singer's "unexpected availability" on Bohemian Rhapsody.

He was absent from X:A a number of times. While someone else here keeps posting images to prove he wasn't (they show him setting up various shots), he definitely was. Cast and crew have spoken about it to friends, and Singer was even posting online about his various extended vacations.

J-Law spoke of chaos on set for X:A, in contrast to the smooth running of the Dark Phoenix production. The reports of Bohemian Rhapsody spoke of chaos on that set.

I think even when Singer was there, his heart wasn't in it as much as it should have been. It was a bit of a rudderless ship. Either he didn't like the story, or he was otherwise occupied.