Dark Phoenix $ The DARK PHOENIX Box Office Speculation ThreaD $

[EnDz0n3]

Boxoffice.com were completely wrong about Deadpool

At the end of January 2016, the film was projected to earn $55–60 million over its opening weekend in the United States and Canada. It ultimately opened at No. 1, making $132.4 million for the weekend, and $152.2 million over the long Presidents' Day weekend.

Boxoffice.com are not omniscient.

None of that is from Boxoffice.com. Perhaps do some research and don't just copy and paste wikipedia info and attribute it to the wrong sites.

 

[mikeyh89]

How accurate are those when it’s still ~2 months out? Genuine question.

 

[samsnee]

Generally, they are lower and should increase as you get closer to the release date as hype builds.

Of course, the opposite can happen. Hellboy was expected to pull in $30MM opening weekend and only did $12MM.

 

[SumT]

Its called prediction for a reason.

Its just a speculation based on different data, mostly social networks movement, youtube viewers and the like.

Those data are interesting, and clearly show the level of interest a movie is generating (studios take this into account too). So its just that, a prediction. The reality remains: Dark phoenix isnt generating the type of hype movies like Black Panther, Captain Marvel or Aquaman generated, so thats why the 1st prediction is that low. that and the so-so marketing to date.

once Fox/Disney releases a new trailer and push the marketing to new heights, these BO sites will update their prediction. maybe it improves, maybe not.

but they arent "random predictions", they are based on real data and previous installements. and XMA boxoffice is a good indication of franchise fatigue. So we just cant pretend these sites to ignore that movie numbers and suddenly say "Dark Phoenix predicted to debut with $200m in USA".
pleaaaaase

 

[EnDz0n3]

How accurate are those when it’s still ~2 months out? Genuine question.

This same site, in January 2017, predicted Logan would open at $81Mil. On March 2017, two months later, Logan opened to the tune of $88Mil.

On March 2018, bo.com predicted Deadpool 2 would open at $100Mil. Two months later DP2 opened at $125Mil.

One way to look at those two movies in particular is that the reviews were exceptional for both and the hype went up. Can we say the same for Dark Phoenix? Will that movie actually be better than how its current toxic word-of-mouth is playing out? Or will it be worse?

Apocalypse, two months before its release, was predicted by boxoffice.com to open at $125Mil, an overestimation if I ever saw one (It eventually opened to half of that). I honestly don't know where they got that number from. Even Singer and studio knew Apocalypse was in trouble. That's why they lifted the embargo weeks in advance, and revealed the secondary X-men costumes and showed the Weapon X cameo. They were desperate to get the word out that an X-men movie was coming out, they didn't care that the reviews would be bad.

Now is boxoffice.com's $47Mil trying to make up for their $125Mil prediction for Apocalypse? Or is their $47Mil still a bit high?

 

[samsnee]

I think it’s reasonable. Apocalypse came after DoFP which was huge, so I assume they thought that Apocalypse would get a bump. Over a $100M is definitely unreasonable though since it didn’t feature the original cast. Since this movie is coming off Apocalypse which was a low point, retreading a story that was already done, and honestly, just looks bland as hell from the trailers, it’s not going to set the box office on fire.

 

[EnDz0n3]

By April of that year, fans and box office predictors were already "treated" to the "Ivan Ooze" Entertainment Weekly pics and other subpar sf/x footage. That $125Mil prediction was definitely too high. Granted it's for the four-day long weekend (Apocalypse ended up with $80Mil for the four days), but even their Alice prediction was also way too high. But such is the the box office game. Hindsight is 20/20.

 

[Raiders]

Opening against stiff competition (Pets). I think DP will open at $65mil and total will be $350 in NA and a total of $900mil ww

 

[DACrowe]

I'd wait for reviews and the final trailer before making sweeping proclamations. But I will agree this will be the lowest grosser domestically, time will tell in terms of international.

 

[Manasrepublic]

If the opening and the box office totals are predicted to be this low then this confirms/supports my earlier analysis that audiences want to see Kinberg’s new vision at Marvel. They probably feel that he’s been too constrained and are waiting for his polished craft and exquisite filmmaking abilities to be guided and embraced by Feige and the MCU. A fresh Kinberg take is what is needed.

I for one am tremendously excited to see his graceful transition and welcome with open arms into the MCU. He can create a brand new fresh off the hot stove crisp delightful more MCU-centric X-men universe and build the world around that. Kinberg is clearly a talent and some would argue visionary and that needs nurturing. This is a sign from the audiences asking him to craft a new X-men vision and show off his directorial talents. If this happens there is no stopping the X-men box office collections intake transactions

 

[samsnee]

Are you like Kinberg’s agent or something?

 

[EnDz0n3]

This franchise has been "nurturing" Kinberg and his vision since 2006. It's time to throw the baby out with the bath water.

 

[psylockolussus]

Mana is beingsarcastic once again.

Opening against stiff competition (Pets). I think DP will open at $65mil and total will be $350 in NA and a total of $900mil ww

That's not gonna happen.

 

[samsnee]

Yeah no way this movie is grossing close to a billion. It’ll be lucky to make the same as the last one.

 

[psylockolussus]

$900 million worldwide and Dofp wasnt even close to $800 million. So that prediction must be a joke.

Also the X-Men are known for not having great legs at the box office, there's no way it could get $300 million in the U.S. with a $65 million opening weekend especially its opening against Secret Life of Pets 2 and that the summer movie season is crowded.

 

[Raiders]

$900 million worldwide and Dofp wasnt even close to $800 million. So that prediction must be a joke.

Also the X-Men are known for not having great legs at the box office, there's no way it could get $300 million in the U.S. with a $65 million opening weekend especially its opening against Secret Life of Pets 2 and that the summer movie season is crowded.

This is wildly wrong

 

[Orba]

Opening against stiff competition (Pets). I think DP will open at $65mil and total will be $350 in NA and a total of $900mil ww

That would mean it was the second worst opening for an X-Men team film but that it would end up beating the best an X-Men team film has ever managed ($234million) by over $100 million at the US box office. X-Men film usually get multiplies of about 2.5 (around 40% of their total domestic BO total is made the first weekend), to reach $350 it would need a multiplier that was double that.

If the current predictions of $40-55 million are accurate then the film is looking at $100-125 total at the US Box Office. The one thing that will help it a bit is that the past two X-Men team movies have made around 70% of their money outside the US, but its still going to be a big drop compared to the past few films unless they are able to overcome the general lack of interest.

 

[psylockolussus]

That would mean it was the second worst opening for an X-Men team film but that it would end up beating the best an X-Men team film has ever managed ($234million) by over $100 million at the US box office. X-Men film usually get multiplies of about 2.5 (around 40% of their total domestic BO total is made the first weekend), to reach $350 it would need a multiplier that was double that.

Makes perfect sense if there's one.

 

[Davidstorm]

There are only two routes to Dark Phoenix
if it is well received can do number equal to XM- 550-580m
if it is again a badly rated movie by critics and with bad comments, I will not be scared if I get 280m worldwide.

the hype of this movie is still low, so there is no possibility of being a venom 2.0 that made a mountain of money even being poorly rated.

 

[Leo Zelinsky]

Are you like Kinberg’s agent or something?

Lol that made me laugh so hard

 

[Frankeh]

900 million? Come on.

 

[Raiders]

That would mean it was the second worst opening for an X-Men team film but that it would end up beating the best an X-Men team film has ever managed ($234million) by over $100 million at the US box office. X-Men film usually get multiplies of about 2.5 (around 40% of their total domestic BO total is made the first weekend), to reach $350 it would need a multiplier that was double that.

If the current predictions of $40-55 million are accurate then the film is looking at $100-125 total at the US Box Office. The one thing that will help it a bit is that the past two X-Men team movies have made around 70% of their money outside the US, but its still going to be a big drop compared to the past few films unless they are able to overcome the general lack of interest.

Better word of mouth

 

[TheNewSlayer]

In the United States I see making it 150m total. In the World I could see making it 600m

US + Rest of the World = 750m total.

A Fox movie about the X-Men would never reach 1 billion.

 

[EnDz0n3]

Where are you getting $600Mil Foreign from? The Deadpool films and Logan movies that have captured the cultural zeitgeist were only able to muster $390-$460Mil Overseas. Days of Future Past, a movie that's more bombastic than "grounded" Dark Phoenix only scored $520Mil. You think Dark Phoenix would get a significant decrease in North America and a significant increase in Foreign markets?

 

[psylockolussus]

Yeah thats not gonna happen.