The "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) thread

[Zarex]

Remember all of the stuff they did during the NBA Championships...Burger King promo, Toys R Us had huge displays with all of their stuff....on TV they had TV spots for each of the team....2nd movie, NOTHING....absolutely nothing.

Which is likely a major reason why there was a 12%+ drop in box office revenue from the first film to ROTSS, despite the 2nd (in my opinion) being the superior film.

And this is also why I believe we're looking at a high stakes game of "studio chicken", at least for the next few months. According to reports at the time of the Disney purchase, the franchise the Mouse most wanted to reacquire was the FF. Their family of characters would greatly strengthen the MCU, and a reboot could potentially be a lead off for "Phase 3".

On the other hand, FOX can't be confident in releasing an expensive reboot of a formerly panned franchise with modest earnings just 56 days before Avengers 2. And with no ancillary revenue from merchandise.

Both parties have every incentive in the world to cut a deal, and I remain confident that they will.

 

[Kelly]

Ya know its weird.....

I didn't really like the first movie when I saw it for the first time, yet after I saw the extended version I watch it every time FX shows it....

I liked the 2nd one better the first time that I saw it, but I have no desire whatsoever to see it again...

 

[BigThanos]

Wow I'm glad there's other people who feel this way about this Fantastic 4 reboot. Me and a few people at my local comic store go on about this all the time.

I think all Marvel films should be with Marvel not just Fantastic Four though.

 

[Dark Raven]

Ya know its weird.....

I didn't really like the first movie when I saw it for the first time, yet after I saw the extended version I watch it every time FX shows it....

I liked the 2nd one better the first time that I saw it, but I have no desire whatsoever to see it again...

What's different about the extended version? What new scenes does it have?

 

[BigThanos]

Come on now - remember the title of this forum thread!

The thing I keep coming back to is the following -I don't see the potential revenues from this project being worth the enormous risk for FOX.

ROTSS grossed $289 million worldwide (per Box Office Mojo). Given the results of the recent reboots of Spider-man and X-Men, the reboot will likely struggle to reach this amount. But let's say, despite opening up just 56 days before Avengers 2 and disappointing many fans who want to see the team in the MCU, Trank's film sees a slight boost to $300 million.

I managed a movie theater about a million years ago, but at the time the studios kept 90% of proceeds from opening week, and the percentages dropped for each following week. From what I have heard, the splits going to the theaters are much more generous in overseas markets. But let's say in total FOX realizes about 65% of the gross, or $195 million.

The first two films looked as though they were cheaply made despite decent budgets, but if Trank, Millar and company are going to show us the negative zone and a fully CGI Thing, the budget will need a boost. ROTSS cost (again, per Box Office Mojo) $130 million. With four characters (at least) requiring expensive special effects, I am estimating a $50 million boost to $180 million.

On to merchandise and other ancillary revenue - unfortunately for FOX, there isn't any. Perouse Marvel 10Ks prior to the Disney buy out and you will see that despite giving away the house on film rights, Marvel maintained a majority interest in merchandise rights for licensed characters and control over their usage. And I don't think Disney is going to clear Avengers, Spider-man and Star Wars toys off the shelves to make room for stretchable Mr. Fantastics and Thing hands.

So in what I see as a best case scenario, FOX is looking at a $15 million return on an $180 million budget. And that's assuming their very green (though talented) director can keep the film's costs under control and Disney/Marvel doesn't do something wacky like release The Incredibles 3D in the same time frame.

There is a reason FOX nixed a third FF film despite receiving ancillary revenue from the sale of backpacks, toys and t-shirts. And why they have waited so long to put a reboot into production. Keep Hope Alive!

Wow...you guys inspire me! LOL!

 

[Kelly]

What's different about the extended version? What new scenes does it have?

It had 7 deleted scenes....a couple it was obvious they needed to be cut...but for the most part it was scenes that really furthered the story....I think they were just too dramatic, and Story couldn't handle that much drama.

 

[mclay18]

And this is also why I believe we're looking at a high stakes game of "studio chicken", at least for the next few months. According to reports at the time of the Disney purchase, the franchise the Mouse most wanted to reacquire was the FF. Their family of characters would greatly strengthen the MCU, and a reboot could potentially be a lead off for "Phase 3".

It would be a case of "studio chicken" if Fox decided to move The Fantastic Four to Avengers 2's May 1st date (or vice versa). Right now, they want to be the first MCU/superhero film of 2015... and it's in a month that doesn't usually feature superhero films. On paper, March is turning out some summer-sized hits. If Fox can make the F4 reboot a good pic and leverage a good marketing campaign, they could theoretically generate more money with a spring release than in a packed summer.

Why else did Marvel Studios/Disney move Captain America: The Winter Soldier from May to April 2014? They don't want to compete with ASM #2. Fox is doing the exact same thing with The Fantastic Four with that March 2015 release, they don't want to compete with MS/Disney's Avengers 2 in May.

On the other hand, FOX can't be confident in releasing an expensive reboot of a formerly panned franchise with modest earnings just 56 days before Avengers 2. And with no ancillary revenue from merchandise.

Just because ASM made a little less money than the Raimi films didn't stop Sony from setting ASM #2 for May 2014. And they didn't make any money from the merchandise sales either.

Like someone said, the profit is in the sequels if the reboot is well-received.

 

[Zarex]

It would be a case of "studio chicken" if Fox decided to move The Fantastic Four to Avengers 2's May 1st date (or vice versa). Right now, they want to be the first MCU/superhero film of 2015... and it's in a month that doesn't usually feature superhero films. On paper, March is turning out some summer-sized hits. If Fox can make the F4 reboot a good pic and leverage a good marketing campaign, they could theoretically generate more money with a spring release than in a packed summer.

"Studio Chicken" doesn't refer to the proposed FF release date, which I think is terrible and will be drowned in Avengers 2 hype. It refers to my belief that FOX would really prefer a check rather than pumping hundreds of millions of dollars into a franchise that at best will return very modest earnings.

Just because ASM made a little less money than the Raimi films didn't stop Sony from setting ASM #2 for May 2014. And they didn't make any money from the merchandise sales either.

Like someone said, the profit is in the sequels if the reboot is well-received.

The box office results and future potential of the FF and Spidey aren't comparable.

 

[mclay18]

It refers to my belief that FOX would really prefer a check rather than pumping hundreds of millions of dollars into a franchise that at best will return very modest earnings.

If Fox wanted that, they would've happily gave the rights back to Marvel in exchange for getting their logo on the film and 8% of the box-office pie. But obviously they feel that Fantastic 4 is still a Marvel property they feel they can make a profit from.

"Studio Chicken" doesn't refer to the proposed FF release date, which I think is terrible and will be drowned in Avengers 2 hype.

The box office results and future potential of the FF and Spidey aren't comparable.

How is it going to be drowned in Avengers 2 hype when it comes out nearly two months before? Studio chicken is a game studios play all the time, when the studios purposely put two competing movies on the same week and hope their rivals move it up or back a week to safer ground. That's not the case here.

In fact, I would bet money that Disney will debut the final trailer for Avengers 2 on prints for The Fantastic Four. It'd be nice synergy for both studios.

 

[Zarex]

If Fox wanted that, they would've happily gave the rights back to Marvel in exchange for getting their logo on the film and 8% of the box-office pie. But obviously they feel that Fantastic 4 is still a Marvel property they feel they can make a profit from.

I'm not so certain regarding FOX's confidence in the project - they're either going to have to keep to a budget as tight as the first two cheap-looking films or hope for a sizeable uptick in the box office. My guess is that Marvel would love to let FOX handle the distrution for the FF, as they had that same agreement with Universal regarding The Incredible Hulk.

How is it going to be drowned in Avengers 2 hype when it comes out nearly two months before? Studio chicken is a game studios play all the time, when the studios purposely put two competing movies on the same week and hope their rivals move it up or back a week to safer ground. That's not the case here.

In fact, I would bet money that Disney will debut the final trailer for Avengers 2 on prints for The Fantastic Four. It'd be nice synergy for both studios.

I understand the term "studio chicken". I managed a movie theater about a hundred years ago. I was using the term to describe the fact that FOX and Disney/Marvel may want the same thing - a cofinancing arrangement that puts the team in the lucrative MCU and reduces FOX's risk. But in order to get the best deal for their company FOX has to show confidence in the 2015 production while Disney/Marvel has to feign disinterest.

Disney/Marvel hype for the sequel will begin at least by Christmas 2014 with stores stuffed with merchandise followed by a prominent Super Bowl ad. Due to existing merchandise agreements, there will be no FF film merchandise. And people with husbands/wives/significant others/life partners/girlfriends who don't post on Superhero Hype may have to choose which Marvel superhero team up film they are going to see in the theaters.

I doubt Disney is looking for "synergy" - they want their rights back.

 

[mclay18]

If Fox and Marvel were to co-finance and co-produce The Fantastic Four, they would've done it already (and settled on release agreements, like Disney distributing domestically and Fox distributing overseas). Plus, Fox has already attached non-Marvel personnel to run it -- Matthew Vaughn and Mark Millar -- so I think Marvel Studios getting involved now is a long shot at this point.

Even though Fox can't make any ancillary money off F4 merchandise, they're still going to make more money by fully owning the film as opposed to a big chunk. And if that reboot is well-received critically and financially, then that sets the stage for a big profit-turning sequel for 2017/2018.

And your logic about couples choosing between The Fantastic Four and Avengers 2 holds no water. The former will be winding down its theatrical run by the time the latter hits theaters. There's room for both due to the two month window between them.

 

[Zarex]

If Fox and Marvel were to co-finance and co-produce The Fantastic Four, they would've done it already (and settled on release agreements, like Disney distributing domestically and Fox distributing overseas). Plus, Fox has already attached non-Marvel personnel to run it -- Matthew Vaughn and Mark Millar -- so I think Marvel Studios getting involved now is a long shot at this point.

It is a long shot - but it doesn't appear as though any real money has been spent so far. FOX isn't any farther along with this film than they were with the failed Daredevil reboot.

Even though Fox can't make any ancillary money off F4 merchandise, they're still going to make more money by fully owning the film as opposed to a big chunk. And if that reboot is well-received critically and financially, then that sets the stage for a big profit-turning sequel for 2017/2018.

I would suggest that a FF film rebooted into the MCU, introduced with a teaser in the post credit scene of Avengers 2, released in the coveted early May slot in 2016 and supported with merchandise tie-ins comparable to what Disney/Marvel is doing with the Avengers would be much more lucrative for both parties. And in regard to sequels, ROTSS suffered a 13% drop off from the first FF film.

And your logic about couples choosing betweenThe Fantastic Four and Avengers 2 holds no water. The former will be winding down its theatrical run by the time the latter hits theaters. There's room for both due to the two month window between them.

I take it you are single with no children?

 

[mclay18]

It is a long shot - but it doesn't appear as though any real money has been spent so far. FOX isn't any farther along with this film than they were with the failed Daredevil reboot.

Uh, they are much further along. They have Matthew Vaughn attached to produce (which speeds things along). Most importantly, they're in pre-production with production to start in Vancouver this September -- and I'm pretty sure casting has started for the lead roles. The aborted Daredevil reboot wasn't even this far along.

I take it you are single with no children?

Yes, and why does that have to do with anything? Kids love superheroes... they'll pester their parents to see this if it looks good. Non-comic book fans will check it out due to Vaughn and Trank's involvement. Guys will have their choice on date night after enduring the Valentine's Day movie. And do not underestimate comic-book fans. They will come out to see this movie if it looks promising... especially with Vaughn and Trank behind it.

Why are you such a Debbie Downer? Just because Fox is making the F4 reboot doesn't mean they'll fudge it up. Tom Rothman isn't there like he did with the first two FF movies.

 

[Zarex]

Uh, they are much further along. They have Matthew Vaughn attached to produce (which speeds things along). Most importantly, they're in pre-production with production to start in Vancouver this September -- and I'm pretty sure casting has started for the lead roles. The aborted Daredevil reboot wasn't even this far along.

Vaughn will be busy working on the The Secret Service with FOX Cinematic Universe guru Mark Millar, so he won't be around to speed things up. My guess is he is attached to step in if the production goes south under Trank. And I don't believe the September production start has been confirmed.

Yes, and why does that have to do with anything? Kids love superheroes... they'll pester their parents to see this if it looks good. Non-comic book fans will check it out due to Vaughn and Trank's involvement. Guys will have their choice on date night after enduring the Valentine's Day movie. And do not underestimate comic-book fans. They will come out to see this movie if it looks promising... especially with Vaughn and Trank behind it.

My point was that time available to go movies decreases signficantly as your responsibilities increase. With two Marvel superhero team-up films opening within two months, for many people, one will become the "let's wait to catch it on On-Demand" film.

Why are you such a Debbie Downer? Just because Fox is making the F4 reboot doesn't mean they'll fudge it up. Tom Rothman isn't there like he did with the first two FF movies.

Admittedly, I am extremely cynical regarding this film. Everything about the film leads me to think this is an attempt to extend the rights for another seven years rather than put the best FF film possible on screen. The reboot announcement within days of the Marvel sale to Disney, Fox putting out four X-Men films before revisiting the FF and the declining box office which kept FF 3 from being made makes me think that FOX does not have a lot of confidence in this film.

Given the potential high cost of production and the lack of ancillary income from merchandise, I don't see this film being any more successful at the box office than Marvel's Hulk reboot. So we could be looking at a "one-off" production and another seven year wait until FOX has to pump out another FF film or agree to a buyout with Disney/Marvel. Maybe Trank & Company can pull off a great FF film, but I doubt it..

 

[mclay18]

Admittedly, I am extremely cynical regarding this film. Everything about the film leads me to think this is an attempt to extend the rights for another seven years rather than put the best FF film possible on screen. The reboot announcement within days of the Marvel sale to Disney, Fox putting out four X-Men films before revisiting the FF and the declining box office which kept FF 3 from being made makes me think that FOX does not have a lot of confidence in this film.

Actually the reboot was announced as early as August 2009, well over a year prior to Disney buying Marvel Entertainment. They kicked it around in development until Josh Trank blew people away with Chronicle, and that's when they got him. I'm sure Fox knew they had a deadline order to get the film produced... they're not dummies.

As for the March date, it's unproven territory for a superhero film (so you do have a point there). On paper though, several films have opened in March to the tune of $70M+ and closed with over $210M in the till. That's significantly more than the last two F4 movies did, and they were in prime summer weekends. (It doesn't help that they weren't good either.)

The release date could very much change, and it could end up being a summer release after all. However, if Fox has a good movie on their hands, they ought to keep it in March. It might get lost in the shuffle if it's a June or August release.

 

[Mr. Dent]

Actually the reboot was announced as early as August 2009, well over a year prior to Disney buying Marvel Entertainment.

Disney bought Marvel in August 2009. :/

 

[Zarex]

Actually the reboot was announced as early as August 2009, well over a year prior to Disney buying Marvel Entertainment. They kicked it around in development until Josh Trank blew people away with Chronicle, and that's when they got him. I'm sure Fox knew they had a deadline order to get the film produced... they're not dummies.

From the article you linked to:

The FF reboot news comes less than a day after it was announced that the Walt Disney Company had made a deal to acquire Marvel Entertainment for $4 billion.

While this could be seen as FOX stating their legal rights in lieu of the sale, the cynical among us (me!) would suggest that they were looking to shake an additional few hundred million from the Mouse on top of the $4 billion.

As for the March date, it's unproven territory for a superhero film (so you do have a point there). On paper though, several films have opened in March to the tune of $70M+ and closed with over $210M in the till. That's significantly more than the last two F4 movies did, and they were in prime summer weekends. (It doesn't help that they weren't good either.)

The release date could very much change, and it could end up being a summer release after all. However, if Fox has a good movie on their hands, they ought to keep it in March. It might get lost in the shuffle if it's a June or August release.

You may be right, but I think that even a good reboot of the FF will fail given the difficulties the film faces. XM:FC was critically praised, but underperformed at the box office. So we are now we are looking at a reboot of the reboot with DOFP. I can't see a critically acclaimed FF reboot being less expensive to make or exceeding the worldwide box office of XM:FC regardless of how well it is made.

 

[mclay18]

From the article you linked to:

The FF reboot news comes less than a day after it was announced that the Walt Disney Company had made a deal to acquire Marvel Entertainment for $4 billion.

I keep getting it mixed up with October 2010, when Disney bought the distribution rights to Iron Man 3 and The Avengers from Paramount.

I apologize.

 

[Zarex]

I keep getting it mixed up with October 2010, when Disney bought the distribution rights to Iron Man 3 and The Avengers from Paramount.

I apologize.

None required - the timeline is confusing as hell to keep track off.

An interesting point is that while Disney/Marvel said that existing rights deals would be maintained at the time of the purchase, so far they have spent hundreds of millions ($278 million to Sony for merchandise rights, $110+ to Paramount for distribution rights) in reacquiring assets. I don't see why they wouldn't have similar discussions regarding their First Family.

 

[mclay18]

None required - the timeline is confusing as hell to keep track off.

An interesting point is that while Disney/Marvel said that existing rights deals would be maintained at the time of the purchase, so far they have spent hundreds of millions ($278 million to Sony for merchandise rights, $110+ to Paramount for distribution rights) in reacquiring assets. I don't see why they wouldn't have similar discussions regarding their First Family.

Disney will probably wait to see how the F4 reboot is shaping up before they reacquire the merchandising rights or whatever. That way, if it's a hit with kids, all those toy profits go to them instead of News Corporation.

I simply don't think Disney can just swoop in and buy the reboot away from Fox, because Fox isn't simply distributing (like Universal and Paramount were). If Disney/Marvel Studios really wants a hand in it, the best thing they can do is enter a co-financing deal with Fox... and the studios have partnered before on Lincoln. It's certainly possible, but only if both want to do it.

But if that happened, Marvel and Disney would also want a hand in further X-Men films too.

 

[Mr. Dent]

None required - the timeline is confusing as hell to keep track off.

An interesting point is that while Disney/Marvel said that existing rights deals would be maintained at the time of the purchase, so far they have spent hundreds of millions ($278 million to Sony for merchandise rights, $110+ to Paramount for distribution rights) in reacquiring assets. I don't see why they wouldn't have similar discussions regarding their First Family.

Those are different circumstances. Disney already had an existing stake in the Spidey merchandising. It was a 50-50 joint venture with Sony for the merchandising, they just wanted to make the relationship simpler and Sony wanted more control over the films, so they worked that deal out. And obviously, they wanted the distribution rights for their own films so they could get it out the way they wanted. Getting back the FF is completely different from those two, reasonable transactions.

 

[Zarex]

Those are different circumstances. Disney already had an existing stake in the Spidey merchandising. It was a 50-50 joint venture with Sony for the merchandising, they just wanted to make the relationship simpler and Sony wanted more control over the films, so they worked that deal out. And obviously, they wanted the distribution rights for their own films so they could get it out the way they wanted. Getting back the FF is completely different from those two, reasonable transactions.

I agree. While Disney could count on earning hundreds of millions of dollars by having complete control over their most popular hero's branded items and by distributing all of the MCU films, the financial windfall, if any, from obtaining rights to the FF family of characters is much more difficult to estimate.

But while Marvel may be willing to wait this one out, I don't know if FOX has that luxury. I believe a cofinancing arrangement that puts the FF into the MCU could bump the expected box office by at least $100 million, and I will "Keep Hope Alive" that a deal can be made until the FF reboot is in theaters.

 

[mclay18]

I think a co-producing deal, like a deal with Marvel Studios, would be more complicated than it's worth. Feige and the Fox studio heads would definitely clash on story ideas and where to go.

If Disney and Marvel were to take a more passive deal, like chipping for the production budget and handling international release, I think Fox would probably agree to that. But an active role where the two have to agree on story and casting? Forget about it...

 

[Zarex]

I think a co-producing deal, like a deal with Marvel Studios, would be more complicated than it's worth. Feige and the Fox studio heads would definitely clash on story ideas and where to go.

If Disney and Marvel were to take a more passive deal, like chipping for the production budget and handling international release, I think Fox would probably agree to that. But an active role where the two have to agree on story and casting? Forget about it...

My hope would be that Feige and his proven team would take the lead in any production, but that hope (and this thread) may be moot. Per Production Weekly:

Fox's reboot of FANTASTIC FOUR working title HENRY STREET is scheduled to begin filming in Vancouver on June 17th.

Don't know if this is a reputable source, or even if FOX has the cast in place to move forward with this. If they do, I would be surprised if this isn't one of the major box office flops of 2015.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

This reeks of a semi-bluff. Fox is trying to push Marvel's buttons, hoping to get them to cave.