The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Agent Orange]

The adjusted for inflation chart is interesting and really displays what an anomaly/behemoth The Force Awakens was. It's domestic gross was almost in original Star Wars territory.

The Last Jedi has sold more tickets than the The Phantom Menace's two sequels. It's landing pretty much where I thought it would give or take a couple hundred million dollars.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/franchises/chart/?id=starwars.htm

 

[Iceman]

Too bad they can't do two more movies with this story instead of just one more. It feels like the characters need more time to gel and more aspects of the narrative need to be explored before going into the last act and resolution.

Yeah I think from the start they should have planned to have 6 Episode films dealing with the New Republic, Rey, the First Order, Kylo, Snoke, the end of the OT characters, and the rebuilding of the Jedi Order.

Agreed with these.

 

[Flemm]

It's landing pretty much where I thought it would give or take a couple hundred million dollars.

1.5-1.6B would have been an excellent number, I think.

1.3 or 1.35 might be considered a little disappointing, but not enough to really matter as an individual result.

The overall trend for future Star Wars movies will be more meaningful to watch. The big nostalgia trip of The Force Awakens, and the return of the beloved original trilogy characters, has come and gone, so it will be interesting to see where the franchise goes from here.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Today’s update:

STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI
$1.7M Wednesday (Est.)
$578.6M Total (North America)
#StarWarsTheLastJedi* #StarWars* #TheLastJedi* #BoxOffice

STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI
$5.1M Wednesday (Overseas) (Est.)
$651.1M Total (Overseas)
$1.229B Total (Worldwide)

 

[gerrym51]

this is on china box office twitter- i could not link to it

THE LAST JEDI earned est. ¥9.5M ($1.5M) on Thurs, taking its one week total to ¥223M ($34.3M). Going up again Jumanji and two new local wide releases tomorrow, The Last Jedi will account for just 2.6% (~7,000) of nationwide screenings on Fri, down from 34.5% (~91,000) last Fri.


it's dropping a tremendous amount of screens it's 2nd weekend

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

#Disney pushed 4232 exhibitors to play #StarWarsTheLastJedi for at least 4 weeks and that period ends today on day #28. Tomorrow it loses 27% of its locations dropping down to 3090 sites.

https://***********/GiteshPandya/status/951546533077495810

TFA, RO, and TLJ held on to the same number of theaters from the opening until after Day 28.

TFA -> Opening (4134) Day 29 (3822) change -7.5%
RO -> Opening (4157) Day 29 (3162) change -23.9%
TLJ -> Opening (4232) Day 29 (3090) change -27.0% (EDIT)

Day 29
Avatar (2009): 3285 theaters
Jurassic World (2015): 3441 theaters
The Avengers (2012): 3670 theaters
Titanic (1997): 2767 theaters
The Dark Knight (2008) 3590 theaters

 

[Warlock]

Well we know it won't beat The Avengers or even The Age of Ultron worldwide, however the question is, does it have another 45m in it to beat The Avengers domestic total of 623.4m from 2012?

If Rogue One did 48.8m from this point on, it is going to be close.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

TLJ & R1 numbers are fluctuating with dailies with either one edging out the other one in this set of weekdays. It's great that TLJ managed to get ahead of R1 on Wednesday considering that the last Wednesday was boosted by winter break. So the Wed. number was very good for TLJ. R1 dropped only 2.1% on Thu. TLJ might drop bigger what with 4 new openers on Jan 11th (previews) cutting into TLJ's business.

The early predictions seem to indicate a 5th weekend gross between (16.5-17.5) million. With an identical PTA to R1 on the 4 Day MLK Weekend, TLJ can gross around 16.42 million. That'll be 38k behind R1. So TLJ will be keeping pace with R1 and not fall too far behind in daily numbers.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

TLJ is going to be in 72 less theaters than RO was starting tomorrow. I don't know the screen count but I assume it's lower as well. So that's an addition pressure that'll make it harder to keep up with RO...maybe the fact that tickets cost slightly more in late 2017-18 than in 2016-17 helps in TLJ's favor.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Well we know it won't beat The Avengers or even The Age of Ultron worldwide, however the question is, does it have another 45m in it to beat The Avengers domestic total of 623.4m from 2012?

If Rogue One did 48.8m from this point on, it is going to be close.

I think 630 million was still in the table after the 4th weekend but the weekday figures haven't been strong enough to cement the 630 million final total. The current trend is fluctuating w.r.t R1. If TLJ manages to keep pace with R1 as it is doing nao, the former could end up finishing with 626.8 million (after Tuesday, the same projection was 625.9 million).

Even tho TLJ beat R1 on Wednesday numbers, it fell behind on overall ratios. But TLJ will need to drop a further 2% against R1 if Avengers were to remain ahead of Ep. VIII. I could see a drop of 1.5% from the 28th day to the end of TLJ's BO run against R1 and that will mean TLJ's final total hovers around 626.1 million (still around 2.5 million more than TA). So I think TLJ will still have enough in the tank to just sneak past The Avengers.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

TLJ is going to be in 72 less theaters than RO was starting tomorrow. I don't know the screen count but I assume it's lower as well.

The screen count/showtimes is going to be lower too. For the past 10-12 days or so both Jumanji & The Greatest Showman are doing better business than TLJ in the sense that they are most likely (Jumanji is definitely superior although I'm not exactly sure about TGS) bringing in more in revenues for the theater owners. Exhibitors were under duress to show TLJ in 4,232 theaters for 4 straight weeks but nao that they are under no contractual obligation, they can finally reject a TLJ showing in favor of a better performer. That'll hurt TLJ.

So that's an addition pressure that'll make it harder to keep up with RO...maybe the fact that tickets cost slightly more in late 2017-18 than in 2016-17 helps in TLJ's favor.

There are lots of things that are extremely favorable for TLJ when compared to R1 or any other movie. TLJ has had the benefit of running almost exclusively in all the IMAX and theater brand PLFs across North America for the past month. I reckon theater owners couldn't possibly risk playing Jumanji or another movie in a bigger capacity hall or a bigger screen in fear of paying a fine as was imposed/mandated by Disney.

Here's a fun fact, if you see Jumanji and TLJ's numbers are close to each other in any given day you can pretty much conclude that Juamnji kicked TLJ's a$$ in actual admissions. TLJ was propped up by the income from the biggest auditoriums & biggest screens while other movies didn't get the advantage of the same. Jumanji has been in an unfair and unjust competition from the start (lesser theaters, lesser screens & no IMAX/PLFs) against TLJ.

Edit: TLJ will be sharing the IMAX screens with both Jumanji & The Commuter this weekend. I wonder how does it affect TLJ this weekend.

 

[gerrym51]

It's saturday morning in China-they are 1 day ahead of North America.

According to BOT -TLJ did indeed fall 93 percent from opening friday

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Boxoffice.com is projecting 16.5 for the four-day weekend, which would put it around 597 after Monday. If that’s the case it should hit 600 midweek.

 

[Iceman]

1.5-1.6B would have been an excellent number, I think.

1.3 or 1.35 might be considered a little disappointing, but not enough to really matter as an individual result.

The overall trend for future Star Wars movies will be more meaningful to watch. The big nostalgia trip of The Force Awakens, and the return of the beloved original trilogy characters, has come and gone, so it will be interesting to see where the franchise goes from here.

This is the 3rd modern SW movie so I think we can start taking TLJ numbers as reflective of where SW is nowadays and if the number isn't disappointing we are saying SW is globally a smaller product than Avengers as all the Avengers films we know about are expected to do more than TLJ, or have done more. Of course domestically it's still the biggest franchise of all.

 

[spiderman2]

Boxoffice.com is projecting 16.5 for the four-day weekend, which would put it around 597 after Monday. If that’s the case it should hit 600 midweek.

If it does the same OS then it would be at about 1.266 billion after Monday WW. If it does 16.8 it would fall about .3 million behind RO when it comes to 5th weekend numbers and around half of what TFA made. Making less then RO considering the big lead it had at the start with a much higher OW would be bad.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

After opening weekend, it hasn't kept all that ahead of Rogue One. It's only 30 million dollars (9.22%) ahead of Rogue One minus the opening weekend and 217 million dollars (-37.66%) behind The Force Awakens. It's been dropping its % lead versus RO from week to week and it's still running behind Rogue One for Monday through Thursday if that Thursday estimate holds. A SW episode should be doing way better than a spin-off at all points in the time line.

The opening weekend is a function of marketing and in the case of something not being a new IP, the public's feelings about its preceding installment and its brand popularity. Word of mouth for the new release doesn't kick in until after.

 

[spiderman2]

What are the Thursday numbers?

 

[gerrym51]

i can never link to china box office twitter so i copied

THE LAST JEDI dropped to 6th place earning just ¥3.5M ($0.53M) on its 2nd Friday, a massive 94.5% plummet from its opening day.

 

[gerrym51]

Just like me with JL some here are having trouble facing it. I feel your pain but what is is.

This movie has underperformed and probably will continue to underperform

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

What are the Thursday numbers?

$1.7 million estimate not actual (yet).

https://www.the-numbers.com/daily-box-office-chart

 

[spiderman2]

Oh ok I had only seen wed numbers.

 

[Agent Orange]

Just like me with JL some here are having trouble facing it. I feel your pain but what is is.

This movie has underperformed and probably will continue to underperform

It will go down as 2017's highest grossing film and was praised critically. Justice League was eviscerated critically and forgotten in a week.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

TLJ Thursday (Day 28) actual - $1,678,949

Day 28
Jurassic World: $3,251,190
The Force Awakens: $3,129,967
The Avengers: $2,774,984
Rogue One: $1,698,971
Age of Ultron: $1,402,043

Day 25 to Day 28
The Avengers: $19,092,321
Jurassic World: $15,995,340
The Force Awakens: $13,198,013
Age of Ultron: $11,287,849
Rogue One: $7,726,810
The Last Jedi: $7,583,038 (TLJ % change from TFA: -42.54%) (TLJ % change from RO: -1.86%)

 

[gerrym51]

It will go down as 2017's highest grossing film and was praised critically. Justice League was eviscerated critically and forgotten in a week.

That was a low blow-lol you got me there.

I'm still in pain.

 

[InCali]

That was a low blow-lol you got me there.

I'm still in pain.

I thought it would be in the 1.4-6 range when all was said and done, so I'd say it performed a little bit below my expectations. I wish it was the first time I've been wrong......

EDIT: It's true though that there's really no comparison between TLJ and JL (TLJ will make more the twice as much at the box office) except that there are people who want to defend each of them and people who hated both. I guess you could say that about a lot of movies.