The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[dataSlave]

Again, the pre release tracking was 675 final domestic. Given that OS for these films is pretty close to domestic, that’s 1.3-1.4 billion. This film is headed right about where it was expected by the industry.

Here is Mendelson from Forbes a month before TLJ premier. He was considered a pessimist but his predictions have been very close:

As of now, conventional wisdom suggests an opening weekend of around $215 million and a final total of around $750m in North America. That would be the second-biggest domestic opening of all time and the third-biggest domestic earner of all time, behind Avatar and Star Wars: The Force Awakens. At a glance, that seems reasonable, suggesting a 3.45x weekend-to-final multiplier on par with the first two Hobbit movies and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...ssimistic-box-office-prediction/#16b45dc85f1b

So the first half of the conventional wisdom was very close. But they industry watchers missed how steeply it would drop for there. With domestic now looking like low 600s, the actuals are set to miss pre-release consensus by 15-18%.

 

[TheVileOne]

Here is Mendelson from Forbes a month before TLJ premier. He was considered a pessimist but his predictions have been very close:



https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...ssimistic-box-office-prediction/#16b45dc85f1b

So the first half of the conventional wisdom was very close. But they industry watchers missed how steeply it would drop for there. With domestic now looking like low 600s, the actuals are set to miss pre-release consensus by 15-18%.

How are you getting low $600 millions?

 

[spiderman2]

Did Lucasfilm think Attack of the Clones was going to drop almost $480 million from The Phantom Menace?

That may still be 220 less then this does and AOTC it made more sinces for it to drop then for this to drop because AOTC was coming off TPM a movie people hated compared to this movie coming of TFA a movie a lot of people liked/loved.

If TLJ had the legs of TFA it would have brought in 53% more dollars this W/E. With RO legs it would have made 35% more money. The legs have to be regarded as a disappointment compared to any previous SW movie.

This and on top of that just bad legs for a big December movie in general.

 

[dataSlave]

How are you getting low $600 millions?

See my post #59 on this thread. It has the calculations. TLJ is now tracking like RO in dollars. That is the 3rd scenario with a $628 million projection for domestic cume.

 

[spiderman2]

Again, the pre release tracking was 675 final domestic. Given that OS for these films is pretty close to domestic, that’s 1.3-1.4 billion. This film is headed right about where it was expected by the industry.

Dead line just about a 5 days ago had it making 750 though and 675 I think sounds to low for expectations going into this before it had came out. Over the last few years it sure seems like more and more movie box office predections are being way off and that includes TFA. No one had it doing over 933 million USA or doing 250 million OW.

 

[gerrym51]

Assuming 100 million from China-i think it will be somewhat less-

I see 1.3 billion tops.

Great for a stand alone movie-Not great for the Star Wars franchise.

 

[Iceman]

What are we looking at for overseas total?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Here is Mendelson from Forbes a month before TLJ premier. He was considered a pessimist but his predictions have been very close:



https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...ssimistic-box-office-prediction/#16b45dc85f1b

So the first half of the conventional wisdom was very close. But they industry watchers missed how steeply it would drop for there. With domestic now looking like low 600s, the actuals are set to miss pre-release consensus by 15-18%.

Here’s the tracking, not Scott’s conventional wisdom.

http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-winchester-house-ghosts-built/

Note it was slipping, even before release.

 

[spiderman2]

Assuming 100 million from China-i think it will be somewhat less-

I see 1.3 billion tops.

Great for a stand alone movie-Not great for the Star Wars franchise.

I think 1.3 is at worst at best 1.5. The movie is at about 1.06 billion already and should be pretty close to 1.1 by the end of tomorrow. Then it should have around 100 million left USA. That means 1.2 then you still have the rest of the OS + China coming out soon. If it does like 50 million in China then you are up to 1.25+ what ever else it has left in the rest of the OS market. Most likely I think we are looking at 1.35-1.4. I agree that 1.3 is not great for star wars and even more so when you see how much TFA made. If it had dropped from TFA but still made like 1.5-1.6 I think it would look a lot better.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Tracking estimates/scenarios based on: link

http://forums.superherohype.com/showpost.php?p=36192529&postcount=127

TFA
Day 18 cume: $750,230,824
Day 119 cume: $935,642,689
Day 119 - Day 18 = $185,411,865

RO
Day 18 cume: $440,901,381
Day 140 cume: $532,177,324
Day 140 - Day 18 = $91,275,943

TLJ
Day 18 cume (estimated): $530,250,000

 

[dataSlave]

What are we looking at for overseas total?

$523.3 mil international vs $517.1 mil domestic per Box Office Mojo was the last I saw.

 

[TheVileOne]

The Force Awakens had more intangible factors going for it than The Last Jedi.

Just as analytics can't prove which team will win the World Series based on stats alone.

 

[dataSlave]

Here’s the tracking, not Scott’s conventional wisdom.

http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-winchester-house-ghosts-built/

Note it was slipping, even before release.

That's fair. Mendelson's piece was 3 weeks prior to this one.

 

[spiderman2]

So the movie is now very close to RO both WW and USA looks like tomorrow it should pass WW and what like tueday/wed for USA? When it comes to USA and trying to pass a movie like JW it is about 17 million ahead at the same point in time in its run how ever its 3erd weekend numbers are looking to be only like 2 million difference.

 

[spiderman2]

Tracking estimates/scenarios based on: link

http://forums.superherohype.com/showpost.php?p=36192529&postcount=127

TFA
Day 18 cume: $750,230,824
Day 119 cume: $935,642,689
Day 119 - Day 18 = $185,411,865

RO
Day 18 cume: $440,901,381
Day 140 cume: $532,177,324
Day 140 - Day 18 = $91,275,943

TLJ
Day 18 cume (estimated): $530,250,000

Can you explain this more? I am kind of confused on what you are trying to show.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Can you explain this more? I am kind of confused on what you are trying to show.

One, TLJ is performing very badly in comparison to the Avengers sequel. And two, TLJ has been thus far trending more like RO than TFA.

 

[TheVileOne]

One, TLJ is performing very badly in comparison to the Avengers sequel. And two, TLJ has been thus far trending more like RO than TFA.

Performing like Rogue One isn't a bad thing for Star Wars. It would be bad if it was performing like Justice League or Batman v Superman.

 

[Iceman]

$523.3 mil international vs $517.1 mil domestic per Box Office Mojo was the last I saw.

Thanks for that. I was asking about overseas total forecasts (as in for the full run).

 

[Mysteryman]

Performing like Rogue One isn't a bad thing for Star Wars. It would be bad if it was performing like Justice League or Batman v Superman.

This.

 

[spiderman2]

Its 2nd weekend drop was a lot like Batman vs superman though.

 

[TheVileOne]

Its 2nd weekend drop was a lot like Batman vs superman though.

Batman v Superman only opened at $160 million or so. Also, it dropped over 54 percent in its third weekend. The Last Jedi did not.

 

[spiderman2]

Batman v Superman only opened at $160 million or so. Also, it dropped over 54 percent in its third weekend. The Last Jedi did not.

Yes but 2nd weekend batman vs superman had like a 69% drop from OW and TLJ had like a 67% drop.

 

[TheVileOne]

Yes but 2nd weekend batman vs superman had like a 69% drop from OW and TLJ had like a 67% drop.

So what? Batman v Superman stopped its run at under $900 million. The Last Jedi has already surpassed that?

 

[Sithborg]

Its 2nd weekend drop was a lot like Batman vs superman though.

Christmas Eve is a factor, though. Mid December releases always tend to throw off traditional views of legs because of the holidays.

I imagine it would've been a more traditional blockbuster 2nd weekend drop off.

 

[spiderman2]

So what? Batman v Superman stopped its run at under $900 million. The Last Jedi has already surpassed that?

That is a really big 2nd weekend drop that is what and if this movie didn't surpass 900 million that would be a really big problem considering TPM made almost a billion with out counting its release and that was with out 3d much smaller international market and 18 years of inflation and also considering TFA made a little over 2 billion.