The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Silver Surfer]

It's gonna need 210m more to get to 1.3, can't say I'm confident. It's all up to China now.

 

[spiderman2]

It's gonna need 210m more to get to 1.3, can't say I'm confident. It's all up to China now.

Are the reports for China still like 50 told tracking or has that went up? If it does 50 in China then it would need 160 for the rest. We will know a lot more after this weekend has the movie open's in China on Friday and with the time different it is already Thursday in China.

 

[Mysteryman]

Disney paid less for Star Wars than they did for Pixar.

Sounds like a good investment to me.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Are the reports for China still like 50 told tracking or has that went up? If it does 50 in China then it would need 160 for the rest. We will know a lot more after this weekend has the movie open's in China on Friday and with the time different it is already Thursday in China.

Seems to be more like 60 now. We’ll see.

 

[Blade X]

That decision was made when they agreed to pay $4.1 billion for Lucasfilms. They had to try and recover that outlay ASAP so we are stuck with movies every year due to financial considerations. I agree that creatively it would be better to have more time between them.

They made all of that money back from sales of all that SW merchandise a while ago.

 

[Aximili86]

Yeah. I doubt this "Star Wars every year" strategy is just to recuperate funds outlayed to George in the purchase. This is Disney - while 4 billion is hardly chump change, it's the type of cash they can afford to invest if it's going to pay off in the longterm.

 

[dataSlave]

They made all of that money back from sales of all that SW merchandise a while ago.

Their royalty rate is 15% of wholesale, or about 7% of retail sales. The profits on sales of ALL SW merchandise since 1977 don't add up to $4 billion.

And 15% is an excellent rate. Most licensees pay 8-10%.

 

[Mjölnir]

But how can this be?! This movie is so hated... t:

It's not as disliked as The Phantom Menace and it's pretty likely that it will make less money than the inflation adjusted sum TPM made. There weren't any boosts from 3D and the likes either.

TPM is a good example of how you can make a ton of money with an incredibly strong property and a lot of hype, even if you don't make a very good film.

 

[Silver Surfer]

If the diminishing returns continue for Star Wars, which I think they will with Solo next, Disney will ratchet up Star Wars production to make up for the losses in boxoffice revenue. Expect 2 Star Wars movie a year in the near future.

 

[Spider-Fan]

If the diminishing returns continue for Star Wars, which I think they will with Solo next, Disney will ratchet up Star Wars production to make up for the losses in boxoffice revenue. Expect 2 Star Wars movie a year in the near future.

That likely will happen eventually whether returns diminish or not.

 

[dataSlave]

If the diminishing returns continue for Star Wars, which I think they will with Solo next, Disney will ratchet up Star Wars production to make up for the losses in boxoffice revenue. Expect 2 Star Wars movie a year in the near future.

God I hope not. I could see it happening but would hate to see the SW equivalents of Cars 3 and the Planes spinoff series from that franchise. Ugh.

 

[gerrym51]

George Lucas says all the money is in action figures(toys)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Z1LC0YbCHU

 

[cristianegan]

STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI earned a disappointing ¥3.4M ($0.52M) from Thurs midnights with an avg attendance of just 22 ppl/screening. Comps: TFA(¥15.9M/77 ppl); R1 (¥3.7M/31 ppl). Likely to lose its opening weekend to local rom-com holdover Ex-File 3: Return of the Exes.

https://***********/ChinaBoxOffice/...share|twsrc^m5|twgr^email|twcon^7046|twterm^2

 

[dataSlave]

George Lucas says all the money is in action figures(toys)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Z1LC0YbCHU

That's where the low-risk money is. No $400-600 million upfront investment. Already been there, done that with the movie. The estimated $5 billion in TFA merchandise sales was worth over $350 million profit to Disney. That's why analysts are concerned that TLJ merchandise shipments were half that.

One reason I disagree with those saying Lucasfilms was a better buy than Pixar is merchandise. Disney has pulled in over $20 billion in sales and north of $1 billion in merchandise profit from just 2 Pixar franchises - Cars and Toy Story. With Nemo, Monsters, The Incredibles and others, the Pixar totals have to be at least double that.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I don't know why TPM is considered to be not a well liked movie. I mean I love the movie (only recently watched it and loved it to bits) but I know the online consensus of TPM is not a good one. But to say that it wasn't well liked upon release is bit of stretch. It broke the OW record in 1999 (5 Day opener tho)with unbelievable hype surrounding the movie and it was the 2nd biggest movie of all time (Unadjusted) upon it's release and even tho TPM had a 5 day opening, it clawed it's way to a 4.08 multiplier. That's extremely good consider TPM released in Summer and had plenty of other big releases/big breakouts around it (The Mummy, Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me, The Blair Witch Project, The Sixth Sense etc.). It didn't drop below 40% before the start of fall (The weekend after the Labor Day Weekend). It dropped less than 30% on more weekends than it dropped north of 30%. That's insane no matter how we spin it. All of these stats would suggest that TPM was very well liked when it came out. The WoM on TPM must have absolutely fantastic because the numbers it pulled on a daily basis are great. TPM's reputation has probably deteriorated over time but it was gigantic upon it's release with great reception.

 

[gerrym51]

STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI earned a disappointing ¥3.4M ($0.52M) from Thurs midnights with an avg attendance of just 22 ppl/screening. Comps: TFA(¥15.9M/77 ppl); R1 (¥3.7M/31 ppl). Likely to lose its opening weekend to local rom-com holdover Ex-File 3: Return of the Exes.

https://***********/ChinaBoxOffice/...share|twsrc^m5|twgr^email|twcon^7046|twterm^2

Why does that poster have Rey and Lukes position switched? Is it a China thing? Does North America also have a switched poster? Just wondering?

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Why does that poster have Rey and Lukes position switched? Is it a China thing?

Yes it is a China thing. That one is the official Chinese poster for The Last Jedi. It's also the official International poster for TLJ.

 

[dataSlave]

Why does that poster have Rey and Lukes position switched? Is it a China thing? Does North America also have a switched poster? Just wondering?

I see two factors and wouldn't even hazard a guess on which one was more important. 1) China was still a closed society when the original trilogy was released. Not that much of an installed base of fans invested in Luke Skywalker - much less so than in the US. Why not feature the new character who will surely feature in future films? 2) China is a very ethnocentric society and Rey is the only one of the lead characters who looks like she could be even part Asian.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

From BoxOffice

STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI
$5.1M Wednesday (Est.)
$544.5M Total (North America)

 

[DKDetective]

Their royalty rate is 15% of wholesale, or about 7% of retail sales. The profits on sales of ALL SW merchandise since 1977 don't add up to $4 billion.

And 15% is an excellent rate. Most licensees pay 8-10%.

That is also the recent royalty rate. Kenner had a killer advantageous royalty rate until about 1985 when they accidentally let the licensing agreement expire after the end of OT. Lucasfilm negotiated a much better royalty rate in the 1990s when they announced the special editions and the prequels.

 

[Sithborg]

If the diminishing returns continue for Star Wars, which I think they will with Solo next, Disney will ratchet up Star Wars production to make up for the losses in boxoffice revenue. Expect 2 Star Wars movie a year in the near future.

I don't see anyone in LFL or Disney being that dumb.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

OS...

STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI
$12.4M Wednesday (Overseas) (Est.)
$563.8M Total (Overseas)
$1.108B Total (Worldwide)

 

[Iceman]

If they were covering an era with a lot of Jedi like The Clone Wars I think they could come up with enough interesting properties to get more regular but while the spinoffs are not directly related and we have Episode films set in this new era I think it will be difficult. Will be interesting to see how the land lies after this batch of films is over.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

@ChinaBoxOffice:

STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI earned a disappointing ¥3.4M ($0.52M) from Thurs midnights with an avg attendance of just 22 ppl/screening. Comps: TFA(¥15.9M/77 ppl); R1 (¥3.7M/31 ppl). Likely to lose its opening weekend to local rom-com holdover Ex-File 3: Return of the Exes.

Pretty much as expected.

 

[Flemm]

Ex-File 3: Return of the Exes

Sounds intriguing, tbh