The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[spiderman2]

I am not sure how much it cost to make like TFA, vs RO vs TLJ but these kind of movies are never cheap to make though. A lot of big movies now days are 200+ budget. JW had a 150 budget when it came out a few years ago and that is kind of low for big movies like that now days.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Having watched the movie today I'm kinda surprised that it's not connecting all that well with the GA of North America. I mean the WoM seems more mixed than outright good or great. Not sure why it is like how it has turned out so far.

I liked the movie and I think TLJ is adequately fun, dynamic and engaging. Plus it has Luke and Leia in prominent roles for that nostalgia effect for OT fans.

 

[spiderman2]

Yeah I don't get it either there are so many great moments that you would think WOM would be much better. I think it is going to end up being more popular over time. I think it just being so different is the main reason for people not liking/loving it more.

 

[gerrym51]

Having watched the movie today I'm kinda surprised that it's not connecting all that well with the GA of North America. I mean the WoM seems more mixed than outright good or great. Not sure why it is like how it has turned out so far.

I liked the movie and I think TLJ is adequately fun, dynamic and engaging. Plus it has Luke and Leia in prominent roles for that nostalgia effect for OT fans.

It's making over 600 million in NA. The GA is going to it. I would say that the fanboys are NOT REWATCHING IT as compared to TFA and that is it's problem

 

[Blitzkrieg]

It's making over 600 million in NA. The GA is going to it. I would say that the fanboys are NOT REWATCHING IT as compared to TFA and that is it's problem

Hmmm. You have a good point there. After all is said and done TLJ would have sold close to 65 million tickets in North America. That's huge and the GA is the main driving force behind it. Plus after the OW I would have pegged TLJ's low end to mid range total at 680 million and seeing as TLJ might miss that mark by around 50 million or so does give the impression of less repeat viewings among the fans.

But even then if you look at this weekend's number, TLJ dropped 55.2% and no other movie in top 10 that was in wide release the weekend before dropped more than 40%. The average drop among the holdovers is 32.55% so TLJ's drop is quite hefty in actual context of the overall weekend. Some of it is definitely due to the lack of fans but some families/general public are also discarding TLJ in favor of Jumanji/TGS/PP3. Let's not forget about Insidious: The Last Key which possibly made as much as it did this weekend at the expense of TLJ's potential business.

 

[Agent Orange]

It's making over 600 million in NA. The GA is going to it. I would say that the fanboys are NOT REWATCHING IT as compared to TFA and that is it's problem

Example of a typical TLJ fan post on social media:

It inconsistent with the other movies now. Disney you messed up even if it was to make the movie realistic. Why is star wars space sometimes have sound and sometimes doesnt?

The fanbase is in the same curmudgeonly place as Star Trek fans nowadays. I will admit that I'm in the anti-Discovery camp but I'm not going to spend hours on social media telling other fans why they shouldn't like it. Sometimes change clicks with you, sometimes it doesn't. And sometimes it takes a while before it settles in.

 

[dataSlave]

Hmmm. You have a good point there. After all is said and done TLJ would have sold close to 65 million tickets in North America. That's huge and the GA is the main driving force behind it. Plus after the OW I would have pegged TLJ's low end to mid range total at 680 million and seeing as TLJ might miss that mark by around 50 million or so does give the impression of less repeat viewings among the fans.

But even then if you look at this weekend's number, TLJ dropped 55.2% and no other movie in top 10 that was in wide release the weekend before dropped more than 40%. The average drop among the holdovers is 32.55% so TLJ's drop is quite hefty in actual context of the overall weekend. Some of it is definitely due to the lack of fans but some families/general public are also discarding TLJ in favor of Jumanji/TGS/PP3. Let's not forget about Insidious: The Last Key which possibly made as much as it did this weekend at the expense of TLJ's potential business.

That is a very good point. The first W2W drop could have been a hangover from huge OW demand. But the pattern of underperforming almost everything else W2W has held for 4 weekends now. Ferdinand is the only film of any significance to open directly against TLJ. OW to 2nd w/e drop was 45.4% for Ferdinand (and vs 67.5% for TLJ. 2nd to 3rd w/e was +55.6% vs -26.6%. 4th w/e was -32.1% vs -55.2%.

PP3 is probably a moderate success and has held its audience much better than TLJ. It held much better in the 2nd w/e vs OW at -15.6% vs -26.6% for TLJ. This weekend is down 39.2% in the 2nd to 3rd w/e vs -55.2% for TLJ's 4th to 3rd w/e.

I won't bother to comp TLJ against Jumanji. That would just be too sad. I can accept that the first drop was an anomaly related to the huge opening. That doesn't explain why TLJ continues to drop faster than anything else. We could see this pattern emerging quite early on. That's why the bad weather excuse really never made any sense but it did keep the analysts confused for a week or so.

 

[Iceman]

Example of a typical TLJ fan post on social media:



The fanbase is in the same curmudgeonly place as Star Trek fans nowadays. I will admit that I'm in the anti-Discovery camp but I'm not going to spend hours on social media telling other fans why they shouldn't like it. Sometimes change clicks with you, sometimes it doesn't. And sometimes it takes a while before it settles in.

Yeah I see too many people obsessed with wanting to influence what I and other fans think (half telling me I should like it as well as the other half saying I shouldn't like it). I don't really see the point. Does anyone ever change their mind because of something like that?

 

[dataSlave]

OK the production cost debate got me curious. If this is too much of a thread jack let me know and I'll stop.

$200 million sounds WAY too low for TFA. Mojo has $245 mil. The Numbers has $306 mil and the NY Times had $250 mil + $30 for studio overhead. It seems clear that the differences relate to accounting for overhead, corporate support and likely the back end bonuses on gross box office.

Other things being equal, Disney will pay out less in back end participation for TLJ because the total box office will be so much lower. OTOH it looks like salary totals will be higher than for TFA. Harrison Ford was supposedly paid $10-20 million for TFA. The $35 million some are throwing around I'm sure includes back end bonuses. Let's use $15 million as the midpoint. Luke and Leia reportedly earned "low 7 figures" each. Say $5 million total. Adam Driver and Oscar Isaac "mid six figures" each. $1 million between them. Daisy Ridley and John Boyega $100-300k a piece. $0.4 million for the pair. There are many sources with similar data but this is a pretty comprehensive one.

https://www.cheatsheet.com/entertainment/star-wars-episode-viii-cast-how-much-make.html/?a=viewall

That gives us $21.4 million upfront salary for the top stars of TFA. Now Ford is gone but bigger roles and renewed visibility for Fischer and Hamill put their TLJ salaries in the "high 7 figure to low 8 figure range" - $10 mil each and $20 million together. Ridley and Boyega will have deals in the "multi million dollar range." Say $4 million each. Driver and Isaac will earn in the "7 figure range" so call it $1.5 million.

That gets us to $31 million for the stars of TLJ vs $21.4 million for TFA using middle of the range based on industry reports. Even if I take the low end on every single one, I can't make the salaries come out lower than TFA.

 

[InCali]

OK the production cost debate got me curious. If this is too much of a thread jack let me know and I'll stop.

$200 million sounds WAY too low for TFA. Mojo has $245 mil. The Numbers has $306 mil and the NY Times had $250 mil + $30 for studio overhead. It seems clear that the differences relate to accounting for overhead, corporate support and likely the back end bonuses on gross box office.

Other things being equal, Disney will pay out less in back end participation for TLJ because the total box office will be so much lower. OTOH it looks like salary totals will be higher than for TFA. Harrison Ford was supposedly paid $10-20 million for TFA. The $35 million some are throwing around I'm sure includes back end bonuses. Let's use $15 million as the midpoint. Luke and Leia reportedly earned "low 7 figures" each. Say $5 million total. Adam Driver and Oscar Isaac "mid six figures" each. $1 million between them. Daisy Ridley and John Boyega $100-300k a piece. $0.4 million for the pair. There are many sources with similar data but this is a pretty comprehensive one.

https://www.cheatsheet.com/entertainment/star-wars-episode-viii-cast-how-much-make.html/?a=viewall

That gives us $21.4 million upfront salary for the top stars of TFA. Now Ford is gone but bigger roles and renewed visibility for Fischer and Hamill put their TLJ salaries in the "high 7 figure to low 8 figure range" - $10 mil each and $20 million together. Ridley and Boyega will have deals in the "multi million dollar range." Say $4 million each. Driver and Isaac will earn in the "7 figure range" so call it $1.5 million.

That gets us to $31 million for the stars of TLJ vs $21.4 million for TFA using middle of the range based on industry reports. Even if I take the low end on every single one, I can't make the salaries come out lower than TFA.

I have a question that you might be able to clear up. It's been my contention that the Disney movie costs are inflated. First off, they GET money for advertising. Secondly, they sub so much of their production costs, commercials, etc. to their own subsidiaries that it really isn't costing Disney the XX million they pay ILM or the XX million they pay ABC and so on. Paying yourself isn't the same as paying someone else. Sure, there are some costs involved, but it's still not the same.

It seems to me that this means that a lot of money just gets pushed from here to there.

Thoughts?

 

[gerrym51]

I have a question that you might be able to clear up. It's been my contention that the Disney movie costs are inflated. First off, they GET money for advertising. Secondly, they sub so much of their production costs, commercials, etc. to their own subsidiaries that it really isn't costing Disney the XX million they pay ILM or the XX million they pay ABC and so on. Paying yourself isn't the same as paying someone else. Sure, there are some costs involved, but it's still not the same.

It seems to me that this means that a lot of money just gets pushed from here to there.

Thoughts?

Movie accounting is akin to 'voodoo'. Only the studio will actually ever know.

 

[TheVileOne]

Mojo has N/A for TLJ's budget. The cost of actors alone would make it much higher than RO. Carrie Fishcer and Mark Hamill are going to cost more than Forest Whitaker and Donnie Yen.

I find that hard to believe. Forest Whitaker is a more relevant actor these days than Mark Hamill, not to mention he's an Academy Award winner. Hamill did not get paid what Harrison Ford did in Force Awakens, who was not in The Last Jedi, so that might have evened costs out. I doubt Boyega or Daisy Ridley got huge pay increases either.

 

[InCali]

Movie accounting is akin to 'voodoo'. Only the studio will actually ever know.

I get that, but I'd still rather pay "my" other company than some "other" company.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I have a question that you might be able to clear up. It's been my contention that the Disney movie costs are inflated. First off, they GET money for advertising. Secondly, they sub so much of their production costs, commercials, etc. to their own subsidiaries that it really isn't costing Disney the XX million they pay ILM or the XX million they pay ABC and so on. Paying yourself isn't the same as paying someone else. Sure, there are some costs involved, but it's still not the same.

It seems to me that this means that a lot of money just gets pushed from here to there.

Thoughts?

Star Wars and Marvel are made, "at cost". And that isn't even really accurate, because they cover so much with the sponsors it probably covers part of the production value, beyond distribution and advertising.

With the NA box office, it will clear 600m at least. That means the movie is going to clear 400m for Disney in NA box office alone. They get 65%. That more then covers the cost of making TLJ. All overseas profits are basically gravy. Say they only get to 750m and only get 35% overall. They are making 260m. This is all before home media and without merch.

 

[dataSlave]

I have a question that you might be able to clear up. It's been my contention that the Disney movie costs are inflated. First off, they GET money for advertising. Secondly, they sub so much of their production costs, commercials, etc. to their own subsidiaries that it really isn't costing Disney the XX million they pay ILM or the XX million they pay ABC and so on. Paying yourself isn't the same as paying someone else. Sure, there are some costs involved, but it's still not the same.

It seems to me that this means that a lot of money just gets pushed from here to there.

Thoughts?

You have a point when you look at total profit but consider that each of those subsidiaries has its own expenses, capital investment and need to show a profit to justify its existence to corporate. So some of the marketing expense for movies becomes revenue to other subsidiaries but most of that money does not remain with Disney - only the profit on that business does. The rest is paid out in salary to the employees of that other subsidiary and expenses paid to their vendors.

Disney's profit margin is 17% net. So roughly one sixth of the dollars they spend this way with their own subsidiaries will stay with the company. I have no way to estimate the dollars or percentage of all marketing spending involved since Disney does not give investors transparency at that level. I'm assuming their transfer pricing between subsidiaries is reasonably fair since their business segments don't vary too much from the relative profitability one would expect.

So that just leaves the issue of expense attribution to corporate rather than individual projects. Disney seems to do a lot of that. If you look at the income statement there is a line called Selling, General and Administrative Expenses. SG&A is like financial purgatory and for Disney it amounted to $8.18 billion last year or 15% of total revenue. That's both a huge dollar amount and a huge chunk of sales where project expenses can be hidden and I think a fair chunk of movie production expenses are hiding but there's no way to prove it. Just for comparison, Ford Motor averages half that as a percentage of sales.

Disney is notorious in the industry for low balling expenses for PR purposes. But every once in a while the truth slips out. They tried to claim that Pirates of the Caribbean 4 was a $250 million movie. But Forbes dug deep and found UK tax filings Disney used to claim a large (20%) tax credit on production costs. Turns out they were telling the British tax authorities that Pirates 4 cost $410 million to produce.

Sorry if that's TMI. I tend to really geek on topics I care about.

 

[dataSlave]

I find that hard to believe. Forest Whitaker is a more relevant actor these days than Mark Hamill, not to mention he's an Academy Award winner. Hamill did not get paid what Harrison Ford did in Force Awakens, who was not in The Last Jedi, so that might have evened costs out. I doubt Boyega or Daisy Ridley got huge pay increases either.

I am saying that the increased salary of Hamill and Fischer more than offset not having to pay Harrison Ford. Even if Boyega and Ridley got "only" $1 million each, TLJ's payroll would be larger than TFA.

 

[Romannen]

I think everyone expected it to make less than TFA. But I'm not aware of any analyst or publication predicting TLJ would make less money than RO.

But it hasn't. RO made 1.056 billion, TLJ has 1.2 and counting...

 

[Warlock]

But it hasn't. RO made 1.056 billion, TLJ has 1.2 and counting...

No that is how much it has grossed at the box office (of which Disney only gets a certain percentage 65% domestic and about 35-40% foreign). TLJ has made far less net money than RO due to the initial outlay costs of making the film and advertising expenses (which far outstrips RO). The overall return on investment as a percentage outlay is and will continue to be vastly inferior.

Does that make sense?

 

[TheVileOne]

No that is how much it has grossed at the box office (of which Disney only gets a certain percentage 65% domestic and about 35-40% foreign). TLJ has made far less net money than RO due to the initial outlay costs of making the film and advertising expenses (which far outstrips RO). The overall return on investment as a percentage outlay is and will continue to be vastly inferior.

Does that make sense?

Not really. The final box office count isn't in for The Last Jedi, and it's only going based off of estimated budgeting numbers and profit splits.

 

[Warlock]

Not really. The final box office count isn't in for The Last Jedi, and it's only going based off of estimated budgeting numbers and profit splits.

You initially predicted TLJ would make between 1.4-1.6 billion. Do you think this is still the case, considering after 4 weekends it is at 1.2b?

How much money do you think TLJ will make after cost expenditures, vs. Rogue One? (Any comparisons to TFA are obviously pointless). That is what was being discussed, not Box Office takings, where TLJ has now passed RO, as you mentioned.

Estimated budgeting numbers are all that's available at this point, unless some insiders at Disney want to chime in with actual figures? I wouldn't be surprised if a few are reading this forum.

 

[TheVileOne]

You initially predicted TLJ would make between 1.4-1.6 billion. Do you think this is still the case, considering after 4 weekends it is at 1.2b?

Considering it's already at over $1.2 billion, yes I believe $1.4 billion is within realm of possibility.

How much money do you think TLJ will make after cost expenditures, vs. Rogue One? (Any comparisons to TFA are obviously pointless). That is what was being discussed, not Box Office takings, where TLJ has now passed RO, as you mentioned.

Estimated budgeting numbers are all that's available at this point, unless some insiders at Disney want to chime in with actual figures? I wouldn't be surprised if a few are reading this forum.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/disney...heaters-on-star-wars-the-last-jedi-1509528603

Disney negotiated a 65 percent split on box office revenue for the film, which usually doesn't happen. I don't think a similar deal was made for Rogue One, which this film has already surpassed at the domestic box office. Usually, the split on revenue for a film like this is a lower percentage.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

No that is how much it has grossed at the box office (of which Disney only gets a certain percentage 65% domestic and about 35-40% foreign). TLJ has made far less net money than RO due to the initial outlay costs of making the film and advertising expenses (which far outstrips RO). The overall return on investment as a percentage outlay is and will continue to be vastly inferior.

Does that make sense?

You mean Rogue One, that needed massive reshoots that weren't cheap? That Rogue One? Also 65% of domestic gross is a new deal for Disney. More then what they got before.

 

[dataSlave]

Movie accounting is akin to 'voodoo'. Only the studio will actually ever know.

That's why it's always so interesting whenever we get a look at numbers they have to file with a government. Disney leaked a $250 million for Pirates of the Caribbean 4 to the press and the public. They told the British government $410 million. Of course there are also legal penalties for lying to the government.

For Pirates of the Caribbean 5 Disney was very careful to not use jurisdictions that would expose their budget. In fact the government of the Australian state of Queensland hid the size of the tax subsidy from the voters there.

 

[Warlock]

That's why it's always so interesting whenever we get a look at numbers they have to file with a government. Disney leaked a $250 million for Pirates of the Caribbean 4 to the press and the public. They told the British government $410 million. Of course there are also legal penalties for lying to the government.

For Pirates of the Caribbean 5 Disney was very careful to not use jurisdictions that would expose their budget. In fact the government of the Australian state of Queensland hid the size of the tax subsidy from the voters there.

Woah woah woah! Are you implying that Disney understated their production costs by over $150 million dollars and lied to the media and public? Say it isn't so! It's not as if they would ever do something like that to make their figures look better than they are, that's far too dastardly. I mean they are the very bastion of honesty and transparency.

That aside, we can look at relative amount and perhaps assume the same degree of understatement with all projects, e.g 35-40% understatement of costs etc.

Edit: I wouldn't be surprised if many movie production companies do this to some extent, however 250/410 is almost a 40% reduction which seems far too large to simply be an error or honest mistake.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Woah woah woah! Are you implying that Disney understated their production costs by over $150 million dollars and lied to the media and public? Say it isn't so! It's not as if they would ever do something like that to make their figures look better than they are, that's far too dastardly. I mean they are the very bastion of honesty and transparency.

That aside, we can look at relative amount and perhaps assume the same degree of understatement with all projects, e.g 35-40% understatement of costs etc.

No. No one in the industry does that.

The Pirates films are a rather special circumstance. Since DMC and AWE filmed back to back the location, Depp and method of film have always inflated the cost.

Also, one of the bits of black magic being avoided here is when a films budget balloons to cover other losses.