The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[gerrym51]

i;ve often wondered? who actually makes the estimates?

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

i;ve often wondered? who actually makes the estimates?

The distributors who put out the films.

Our box office charts are compiled from data provided to us by distributors.

https://www.the-numbers.com/weekend-box-office-chart

But sometimes analysts for the trades like Deadline or the Wall Street Journal and the like.

 

[spiderman2]

Fan social media posts on The Force Awakens have been pretty toxic for the better part of two years as well. A chunk of the fanbase has concluded that "The Mouse" is evil and the even the prequels are better because they're "true" Star Wars. Why? Because George made them.

Aside from Rogue One's safe fan service Disney isn't going to win those people over. They've made up their minds.

I have to disagree with you what you are saying sounds more like what people are saying with this movie. I never heard any one say that TFA was worse then the prequels the only thing I have seen people say really is that it was a ok movie and was way to similar to ANH.

 

[dataSlave]

The distributors who put out the films.

https://www.the-numbers.com/weekend-box-office-chart

But sometimes analysts for the trades like Deadline or the Wall Street Journal and the like.

And in this case, one Disney subsidiary (Buena Vista) is acting as distributor for another (Lucasfilms).

 

[Agent Orange]

I have to disagree with you what you are saying sounds more like what people are saying with this movie. I never heard any one say that TFA was worse then the prequels the only thing I have seen people say really is that it was a ok movie and was way to similar to ANH.

As I said in a previous post, I think that a lot of people are underestimating how many people were underwhelmed by VII. I know people who haven't seen VIII because VII failed to peak their interest. "I'll wait for Netflix."

Everybody and their mother saw VII. It was "The Return". An event. Subtract the people who responded with "meh" to VII and the people who were "angry" with VIII and you get this box office. I figured 1.5 billion but I'm not surprised by this figure either.

Competition for eyeballs and interest is fierce nowadays. Star Wars isn't immune to it either.

 

[Flemm]

As I said in a previous post, I think that a lot of people are underestimating how many people were underwhelmed by VII.

Individual opinions will vary, of course, but generally speaking, the opening weekend will tell you what domestic audiences thought of the prior installment, while the legs will tell you roughly what they thought of the current one.

I don't see much reason to doubt that conventional wisdom in this case. This movie's opening came very close to the prior installment, much closer than anyone could have reasonably expected. But the legs have not been good for a Star Wars movie released during the holiday season. I don't think it makes any sense to blame that on the prior installment.

The other factor to consider would be the tendency for these big franchises to become increasingly front-loaded over time. People simply make up their minds quickly about whether or not they will see it, because it is a known commodity. The so-called fanboy effect could be playing a role in this case.

The real measure of what audiences thought of this movie will be the opening weekend of Episode 9.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

The idea or notion that TFA was or is disliked by the GA or fans alike is almost factually wrong. TFA has had an incredible reception from the moment it hit theaters. It's possible to produce anecdotal evidence to the contrary but it's BO run from the date of release to the date of closure delivers the ultimate verdict.

TFA opened to an unprecedented, stupendous, mind boggling 247.96 million and still managed a 3.78 multiplier. The multiplier is frankly insane even for a Dec. release. TFA held the record of the the best multiplier among 100m+ openers at the domestic box office before Wonder Woman beat it earlier this year. So basically it beat every f**king movie that opened to 100 million or more in terms of legs even tho it just happens to be the undisputed biggest of 'em all. It's an incredible display of strength and it'll remain an unrivalled achievement in that level.

TFA is also the 4th best selling Blu-Ray of all time in North America. It just shows how much people in North America loved TFA. It's not just a theatrical phenomenon. It has racked up crazy good numbers in ancillary revenues further proving it's staying power among the GA and the fans

Plus TLJ opened to f**king 220 million and it was because folks were excited for the follow up to TFA. The best marketing campaign for TLJ was that it's the direct sequel of TFA continuing the story of the Skywalker saga. TFA was universally loved at the time of it's release and I see no revisionism of history in the 2 years since then. It's still unanimously loved by most folks in North America. To say otherwise would be factually incorrect in the face of statistical evidence.

 

[Agent Orange]

Obviously the people around me aren't indicative of millions of ticket buyers. I'm simply relating what they thought of/think of The Force Awakens. I know plenty of people on the Rey = Mary Sue bandwagon (I'm not one of them - but that's a different debate) and my brother was particularly annoyed by Mark Hamill's singular scene in the film. One guy yelled out "What??" at my midnight screening.

I think that the general audience liked both of these films a great deal but it's a contingent of Star Wars fans that are being rubbed the wrong way. I didn't care much for Force Awakens and loved The Last Jedi. Disney has a tricky balancing act ahead of them. You really need to rely on the hardcore fanbase for massive repeat viewing numbers.

 

[Adhesive Boy]

The problem with TLJ at the BO is how far the movie is below TFA in legs when it wasn't very far off in early interest.

The North American OW was just 11% below TFA, so that far everything looked great. Now we might look at it making, say, $1.35 billion WW, which would be 35% lower than TFA.

That shows that the legs, which is when the movie stops riding the hype and stands on it's own legs, is far weaker than that of TFA. Not even remotely close to how close the OW was to TFA's OW. Of course it's a bit of a mix between NA OW and WW total, but it still shows that the hype was there, it just doesn't carry itself like TFA or even RO.

If it was just that people weren't longing for SW as much, then the OW drop would have been closer to the total drop.

 

[Frodo]

The GA loved TFA . I would say that fandom has shifted on TFA from overwhelmingly praising it, to now, post TLJ, being far more critical of it and JJ.

When TFA was first released ,there were a lot more SW fans who defended it against criticisms. In the two years since the hype, and since Johnson's TLJ , a lot of the fans who defended TFA are much more critical of it and critical of JJ.

I think TFA is still thought highly of by the GA, but I've definitely seen more of a shift toward the negative among the SW fans toward it than they did in the first month of release.

JJ was considered " The man who saved SW". Now he's been painted as being" too slavish and worshipful" to the OT.

We'll see where SW fandom is on TFA and TLJ post episode 9.

 

[Marvolo]

TFA has had its detractors from day one. The "Mary sue" exaggerations, people falsely claiming it's a remake, people claiming it was too safe etc.

And on the internet there is this habit of turning against films. It becomes "cool" to hate on something that was positively received. It's happened with TFA. But it's not the general consensus. That I'm sure of.

 

[Vincanws]

Yes, there's certainly been enough whiney Internet comments in 2 years to put rest to the notion that The Force Awakens didn't have plenty of detractors. It would be impossible for it not to have had some impact on their decision to see The Last Jedi.

 

[Flemm]

TFA has had its detractors from day one. The "Mary sue" exaggerations, people falsely claiming it's a remake, people claiming it was too safe etc.

Agreed, which is why I would be hesitant to attribute the apparently mixed reception of this movie, and its relatively poor legs at the box office, to some vocal fans being upset. That may be a factor, but I doubt that its the only one, or the main one. Some amount of that is basically inevitable.

Speaking for myself personally, I liked certain things about the movie, especially Mark Hamill's performance, but my disappointment had to do with the fact that I was hoping to see the new characters at the center of this trilogy. I thought that they did not get the development that they deserved in The Last Jedi.

I'm a fan of the original trilogy, sure, but that's not why I was less than enthusiastic (even though I had a good time and did not feel that I had wasted my money by any stretch).

So it can be a mixture of different things.

One big factor is the movie not being overly family-friendly, imho. The movie is long, and it really drags at times. After seeing the movie in the first week, I will often go back with nieces and nephews, if the movie feels like a good fit, but we didn't do that this time.

It's a lot of money to spend on a movie that really made me think that the kids would probably check out by the halfway point.

That probably hurt the legs over the holidays.

 

[hitmanyr2k]

I think people liked TFA just fine. I think there are just many fans of the original trilogy that were anticipating the return of Luke since these movies were announced, were severely let down or underwhelmed by what was done with his character and saw no reason to go back and watch the movie again. I fall in that camp.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

If anything I appreciate Abrams and Kasdan & Arndt and Edwards & Gilroy and Weitz more after TLJ.

 

[dataSlave]

The GA loved TFA . I would say that fandom has shifted on TFA from overwhelmingly praising it, to now, post TLJ, being far more critical of it and JJ.

When TFA was first released ,there were a lot more SW fans who defended it against criticisms. In the two years since the hype, and since Johnson's TLJ , a lot of the fans who defended TFA are much more critical of it and critical of JJ.

I think TFA is still thought highly of by the GA, but I've definitely seen more of a shift toward the negative among the SW fans toward it than they did in the first month of release.

JJ was considered " The man who saved SW". Now he's been painted as being" too slavish and worshipful" to the OT.

We'll see where SW fandom is on TFA and TLJ post episode 9.

I think there is a certain degree of revisionism going on in fandom. I am torn as to the cause. My primary suspicion is that the 10% who hated TLJ now feel like abandoned spouses. And they are starting to look back and wonder where it all went wrong. A lot of things probably look different in retrospect, especially with the hindsight colored by their reaction to TLJ.

The cool to hate what's popular thesis may explain some of it - especially with newer, younger fans. But I can't imagine that sentiment turning someone who has loved SW for 40 years against the franchise - at least not on its own. It's not as if loving SW for decades made them the cool kids at school. t:

 

[Iceman]

TFA has had its detractors from day one. The "Mary sue" exaggerations, people falsely claiming it's a remake, people claiming it was too safe etc.

And on the internet there is this habit of turning against films. It becomes "cool" to hate on something that was positively received. It's happened with TFA. But it's not the general consensus. That I'm sure of.

Is that a common thing? A lot of the films that are currently held in high regard obviously didn't see that for some reason.

 

[Agent Orange]

Is that a common thing? A lot of the films that are currently held in high regard obviously didn't see that for some reason.

Christopher Nolan's Dark Knight Trilogy is generally held in high regard, especially the middle chapter, but man, are it's detractors loud. Freaking loud.

I read a Thor: Ragnarok social media post the other day featuring an interview with Tessa Thompson - the comments under the link were toxic. "That's not Valkyrie!" "Disney and their SJW crap!" "Taika Waititi ruined Thor! Too much comedy!"

These comments aren't indicative of general consensus but again, these folks are loud.

 

[Iceman]

Christopher Nolan's Dark Knight Trilogy is generally held in high regard, especially the middle chapter, but man, are it's detractors loud. Freaking loud.

I read a Thor: Ragnarok social media post the other day featuring an interview with Tessa Thompson - the comments under the link were toxic. "That's not Valkyrie!" "Disney and their SJW crap!" "Taika Waititi ruined Thor! Too much comedy!"

These comments aren't indicative of general consensus but again, these folks are loud.

I don't know how loud the detractors for TDK are as I've barely heard them. Rises sure but that wasn't something that happened after the event to be cool, they were there from the beginning. Same goes for all those Ragnarok criticisms. Most people loved it but those comments above were there on day 1. And TLJ doesn't seem to be any more mixed now than it was after the first people here saw it with most liking it but a good number of people not liking it.

 

[Agent Orange]

I don't know how loud the detractors for TDK are as I've barely heard them. Rises sure but that wasn't something that happened after the event to be cool, they were there from the beginning. Same goes for all those Ragnarok criticisms. Most people loved it but those comments above were there on day 1. And TLJ doesn't seem to be any more mixed now than it was after the first people here saw it with most liking it but a good number of people not liking it.

I see my fair share of "Batman Begins is the best Nolan Bat-film. Dark Knight just has Heath" comments. Plot holes (Batman left The Joker at the party!) discussions often drive me up the wall. I don't think that a lot of people have a concrete grasp on what a plot hole actually is. Filmmakers often need to make tough sacrifices to keep the momentum of the narrative flowing.

The Rises/Bruce Wayne, TLJ/Luke Skywalker criticisms and concerns are pretty similar come to think of it. I have an affinity for flawed, broken heroes who rise up and inspire, so I have a blind spot there I suppose.

 

[Iceman]

I see my fair share of "Batman Begins is the best Nolan Bat-film. Dark Knight just has Heath" comments. Plot holes (Batman left The Joker at the party!) discussions often drive me up the wall. I don't think that a lot of people have a concrete grasp on what a plot hole actually is. Filmmakers often need to make tough sacrifices to keep the momentum of the narrative flowing.

The Rises/Bruce Wayne, TLJ/Luke Skywalker criticisms and concerns are pretty similar come to think of it. I have an affinity for flawed, broken heroes who rise up and inspire, so I have a blind spot there I suppose.

I guess I don't actively read current discussions of TDK nowadays as its merits are clear as day for me and I've already discussed it to death. Any of these things that get brought up wouldn't register with me as significant and even worth discussing so I probably forget them if I see them.

Rises, TFA, R1 and TLJ all had a similar impact on me on first viewing where I liked them fine but was slightly disappointed. I liked all of the other 3 (aside from TLJ) much more on my 2nd viewings although none are my favourites. TLJ might take a 3rd viewing. I liked it nearly all the way through but just don't like that ending for Luke and a chunk of the film (Canto Bight) feels like a waste of time and many of the supporting characters didn't quite hit the mark for me. The Throne room scene is all kinds of awesome though and I happen to like some parts that aren't popular (like Snoke).

Btw nothing wrong with liking what you like. I just watched and loved Gods of Egypt which seems to have been universally panned. t:

 

[Flemm]

I see my fair share of "Batman Begins is the best Nolan Bat-film. Dark Knight just has Heath" comments. Plot holes (Batman left The Joker at the party!) discussions often drive me up the wall.

Well, one thing that makes these discussions a little tricky is that we are talking about a high number of people (the audience for these movies is very large, it's not a niche audience), so basically every possible opinion or reaction is going to be represented in one way or another.

That's why an anecdote or a few comments on social media, or whatever, don't necessarily mean much on their own. Even a substantial number of angry people on the internet doesn't necessarily represent much of anything about the wider response, although it can have an impact, in certain ways.

A few vocal people deciding that The Dark Knight is not the greatest thing that has ever happened to Batman or the superhero genre doesn't say anything about the overall response to that movie, or its overall impact. Those opinions existed back when the movie was released, they just didn't represent a large chunk of the audience. That doesn't mean that they were wrong, automatically, it just means that they were dissenting views, rather than the majority opinion.

The Last Jedi is a bit of a tricky movie to evaluate, simply because the response was very good in certain ways (critics, cinema score, opening weekend), and the overall box office is very good (it would be phenomenal for most things).

So I think that one has to be a little patient. The legs have not been particularly good, so that is an indicator that the response was a little mixed among the wider audience.

But I would not leap to the conclusion that some vocal fans being upset is the cause of that, or representative of the reasons for that somewhat disappointing sustained interest at the box office.

 

[Agent Orange]

It's been interesting to follow The Last Jedi's box office progression, for sure.

We saw four films cross 1 billion at the box office in 2017 and the MCU didn't have a representative.

1. The Last Jedi 1,264.9 billion
2. Beauty and the Beast 1,263.5 billion
3. The Fate of the Furious 1,236.0 billion (insanity)
4. Despicable Me 3 1,034.8 billion (Colour me surprised. I figured this was fading)
5. Spider-Man: Homecoming 880.2 million
6. Wolf Warrior 2 870.3 (854 million from China!!! Safe to say that this franchise is their Star Wars?)

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Thor: Ragnarok, Wonder Woman and Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (yuck) round out the top 10.

I expect Infinity War to push the original Avengers box office take domestically and internationally. It will be a monster. 6 years of anticipation.

My biggest box office disappointment from 2017 was War for the Planet of the Apes's paltry 490.7 million take. I'm not sure why Dawn didn't click with audiences but it obviously had an affect on the finale. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes made 710 million worldwide.

Blade Runner 2049's box office didn't surprise me but it bombed big time considering it's budget. Oh well. I loved it.

 

[Agent Orange]

I guess I don't actively read current discussions of TDK nowadays as it's merits are clear as day for me and I've already discussed it to death. Any of these things that get brought up wouldn't register with me as significant and even worth discussing so I probably forget them if I see them.

Rises, TFA, R1 and TLJ all had a similar impact on me on first viewing where I liked them fine but was slightly disappointed. I liked all of the other 3 (aside from TLJ) much more on my 2nd viewings although none are my favourites. TLJ might take a 3rd viewing. I liked it nearly all the way through but just don't like that ending for Luke and a chunk of the film (Canto Bight) feels like a waste of time and many of the supporting characters didn't quite hit the mark for me. The Throne room scene is all kinds of awesome though and I happen to like some parts that aren't popular (like Snoke).

Btw nothing wrong with liking what you like. I just watched and loved Gods of Egypt which seems to have been universally panned. t:

Canto Bight dragged (undeniably) for me on my first viewing but I appreciated what Rian was trying to do on the second. I dig the tragedy of the best laid plans going to waste. And I'm also in the minority here because I like DJ and what Benicio did with the character and what he represented. The stuttering is bizarre but oh, so him.

 

[spiderman2]

It's been interesting to follow The Last Jedi's box office progression, for sure.

We saw four films cross 1 billion at the box office in 2017 and the MCU didn't have a representative.

1. The Last Jedi 1,264.9 billion
2. Beauty and the Beast 1,263.5 billion
3. The Fate of the Furious 1,236.0 billion (insanity)
4. Despicable Me 3 1,034.8 billion (Colour me surprised. I figured this was fading)
5. Spider-Man: Homecoming 880.2 million
6. Wolf Warrior 2 870.3 (854 million from China!!! Safe to say that this franchise is their Star Wars?)

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Thor: Ragnarok, Wonder Woman and Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (yuck) round out the top 10.

I expect Infinity War to push the original Avengers box office take domestically and internationally. It will be a monster. 6 years of anticipation.

My biggest box office disappointment from 2017 was War for the Planet of the Apes's paltry 490.7 million take. I'm not sure why Dawn didn't click with audiences but it obviously had an affect on the finale. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes made 710 million worldwide.

Blade Runner 2049's box office didn't surprise me but it bombed big time considering it's budget. Oh well. I loved it.

I agree about Apes having a drop of like 220 million was odd. Normally if a movie in a franchise makes less then the one before it is either a reboot something that always turns people away or it is considered much worse then the one before it in the franchise or the one before was the first one in the franchise so it had the whole being a new thing on its side. War was one of those very few movies that had a big drop from the one before with out being either a reboot or with out the movie being considered a much worse movie then the one before has War got even better reviews then dawn. Funny thing is that number 6 movie if not for this web site and its forum I would have never even heard of that movie before lol. Even though a MCU movie didn't make a billion or more this year still 4 of the top 10 boxoffice movies of 2017 are still Disney movies + a movie like Coco is at 621 million and like most animated movies is showing good legs has it is only around 5 million or so away from a multipler of 4.0.