The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Mjölnir]

And which gives zero sourcing aside from unnamed “analysts.” If you were looking at the projections, they were coming down.

One just needs to look around to find them. Forbes even said that $732 million domestic was a reasonable expectation after the OW, if the film would fare somewhat normally. TLJ did have a better weekend multiplier than TFA, but they still went safer due to some divisiveness etc.

This is of course all separate from that these late predictions are judging the direct current context, which is not the same as what the realistic expectations on the film is from the studio, which of course sets their hopes early on in production. That's of course the expectations that are actually relevant to the discussion about what the studio thinks.

 

[Agent Orange]

I would have rolled my eyes so far back in my head at the sight of Luke crushing walkers with the Force. I've read far too many bad expanded universe novels where Luke is nigh untouchable.

It worked in Genndy Tartakovsky's Clone Wars series - Mace Windu lays waste to the droid army by himself in one episode. It's a terrific animation showcase and I love it, but if he could do that... then why didn't we see it in Attack of the Clones?

 

[JeetKuneDo]

So it looks like only 3 people out of 60 predicted this low of a box office gross.

Nice one Johnson.

 

[Flemm]

Sounds simple but I think just that would have made a big difference.

Well, it's a movie that intentionally undercuts expectations.

I expect that episode 9 will not try to do the same thing, but will try to deliver a satisfying conclusion, with more traditional heroic moments.

But there are some lingering questions:

Are people invested enough in the new characters to be excited about a more traditional finale, when the time comes? Was this movie really divisive enough to negatively impact future installments? Will the third installment be able to deliver something that doesn't feel either like a retread of RotJ, or a rejection of this movie's choices, or both?

We'll see. The Last Jedi is a movie that responds very well to a certain type of analysis, which is why there are so many think pieces about it being the most intellectual Star Wars movie, and so on. But it consciously does that at the expense of delivering on the more traditional heroic moments that many fans want to see.

I can't be sure what, if any, impact that will have in the long run. I can be sure that I personally will get tired of the incessant social media debates, though, just because I get a little bored with everything becoming yet another battleground in the culture wars. The times we live in.

 

[Iceman]

Well, it's a movie that intentionally undercuts expectations.

I expect that episode 9 will not try to do the same thing, but will try to deliver a satisfying conclusion, with more traditional heroic moments.

But there are some lingering questions:

Are people invested enough in the new characters to be excited about a more traditional finale, when the time comes? Was this movie really divisive enough to negatively impact future installments? Will the third installment be able to deliver something that doesn't feel either like a retread of RotJ, or a rejection of this movie's choices, or both?

We'll see. The Last Jedi is a movie that responds very well to a certain type of analysis, which is why there are so many think pieces about it being the most intellectual Star Wars movie, and so on. But it consciously does that at the expense of delivering on the more traditional heroic moments that many fans want to see.

I can't be sure what, if any, impact that will have in the long run. I can be sure that I personally will get tired of the incessant social media debates, though, just because I get a little bored with everything becoming yet another battleground in the culture wars. The times we live in.

I like most of TLJ but apart from the Throne room scene it didn't blow my brains out and my general SW hype has taken a hit due to the series just not being as exotic as I want for a space opera with so many races and planets. The main characters apart from Snoke are all regular humans and if they did that with for eg LotR my excitement for that would have taken a hit too. Just escapism that is a bit too controlled for my liking in 2017.

 

[Flemm]

Just escapism that is a bit too controlled for my liking in 2017.

Well, we can't just have an escapist fantasy. Everything has to be fodder for endless circular arguments about gender and diversity, or did you miss the memo?

To me that is a separate thing from having more diverse lead characters, and more women in heroic roles, which I fully support. It's possible to do that, and even spark healthy debate on relevant issues, while still delivering a traditional heroic fantasy.

 

[Iceman]

Well, we can't just have an escapist fantasy. Everything has to be fodder for endless circular arguments about gender and diversity, or did you miss the memo?

To me that is a separate thing from having more diverse lead characters, and more women in heroic roles, which I fully support. It's possible to do that, and even spark healthy debate on relevant issues, while still delivering a traditional heroic fantasy.

I want more aliens in lead roles! All genders and colours welcome. I'm just anti-human.

 

[gerrym51]

It was so easy: single great battle with Luke (sth like DV scene from RO - Luke dropping some walkers ;-)) and him not dying at the end. The fans would have stormed the cinemas to see it over and over...

I think in the next movie we will find Luke is still alive. How? I can think of several ways but i'm sure there are others!

 

[JeetKuneDo]

Well, we can't just have an escapist fantasy. Everything has to be fodder for endless circular arguments about gender and diversity, or did you miss the memo?

To me that is a separate thing from having more diverse lead characters, and more women in heroic roles, which I fully support. It's possible to do that, and even spark healthy debate on relevant issues, while still delivering a traditional heroic fantasy.

Kennedy needs to watch this to find out you can have great female characters without the need to make the male characters weak:

Hire a better writer in other words. It's lazy/inept to just make one group of characters weak because you can't figure how to make another group of characters strong.

 

[Flemm]

Well, to take a different example, I admire what Jenkins did with Wonder Woman partially because I think it was possible for someone to go into that movie being very skeptical about the whole thing, and come out with an entirely different view.

That matters more, I think, than simply stoking the flames of existing opinions.

The gender commentary in The Last Jedi is very obvious and didactic, so it's only going to have a polarizing effect. People are just going to argue about it, and it will just confirm existing opinions, or be irritating, or be irrelevant to people who just went to see the movie for fun.

Now, this movie is in a different situation. Wonder Woman was a much more precarious scenario. That movie had to land. It had to make money and prove that a female-driven superhero movie could do that.

Star Wars is in a different position, and can probably afford to be a bit more divisive. But I still don't see much point in it. It's not that I disagree with Johnson's opinions on these issues. I'm probably more likely to agree with him than not, on many things. But so what?

I don't think that he's going to change anyone's mind with this movie. The gender commentary is too heavy-handed.

 

[Vincanws]

Rian did what he did. I hope he has no regrets whatsoever about making the movie the way he wanted.

I'm pretty sure he doesn't give a toss.

 

[Shadow Moses]

I'll be surprised if episode IX makes 1billion. People underestimate the damage TLJ has done. It was a self contained movie that discarded pretty much all the plot points from TFA and asks very little (if any) in return. It felt more like the 3rd movie in a trilogy. Even people that like it can't see where the story will go next. With the original 3 characters all gone we are left with just Kylo & Rey who already did battle in TFA. Are we supposed to look forward to broom kid?

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

It was so easy: single great battle with Luke (sth like DV scene from RO - Luke dropping some walkers ;-)) and him not dying at the end. The fans would have stormed the cinemas to see it over and over...

Sounds simple but I think just that would have made a big difference.

Agreed with both of you.

 

[Agent Orange]

I have no clue as to why fans are so troubled by Luke "dying". As a Jedi it means that he's become one with the Force - something that all Jedi strive for in life or death. As a kid I always felt that Obi-Wans presence loomed large over Luke in Empire and Return despite his brief appearances and I fully expect Luke to play a larger role as a Force Ghost in IX. Irony of ironies because fans will probably get their "wise" Jedi Master Luke in this form.

Rey says that she feels "peace and purpose" from Luke. He's not finished.

 

[Iceman]

I have no clue as to why fans are so troubled by Luke "dying". As a Jedi it means that he's become one with the Force - something that all Jedi strive for in life or death. As a kid I always felt that Obi-Wans presence loomed large over Luke in Empire and Return despite his brief appearances and I fully expect Luke to play a larger role as a Force Ghost in IX. Irony of ironies because fans will probably get their "wise" Jedi Master Luke in this form.

I think most people expected Luke to die in this trilogy. If he'd done the exact thing he did in this film as a hologram as the real Luke and then died, I think it would have been more palatable to many. Unlike Obi Wan and Yoda who are already past it when we first meet them, I think many wanted to see one genuine (non-hologram) last hurrah from Luke as Jedi-Grandmaster before he went out. People have had their fantasies of what Luke could have achieved in all these years having seen him as Jedi master in RotJ and I guess for a fair number those personal fantasies weren't quite fulfilled.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

TLJ came in slightly below estimates for the 3/4-day weekend.

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Star-Wars-Ep-VIII-The-Last-Jedi#tab=box-office

 

[Silver Surfer]

It was so easy: single great battle with Luke (sth like DV scene from RO - Luke dropping some walkers ;-)) and him not dying at the end. The fans would have stormed the cinemas to see it over and over...

Sounds simple but I think just that would have made a big difference.

Gotta give the people what they want if you want repeat viewing out the wazoo. For whatever reason they decided to compelety subvert fan expectations starting from the toss.

 

[Agent Orange]

I think most people expected Luke to die in this trilogy. If he'd done the exact thing he did in this film as a hologram as the real Luke and then died, I think it would have been more palatable to many. Unlike Obi Wan and Yoda who are already past it when we first meet them, I think many wanted to see one genuine (non-hologram) last hurrah from Luke as Jedi-Grandmaster before he went out. People have had their fantasies of what Luke could have achieved in all these years having seen him as Jedi master in RotJ and I guess for a fair number those personal fantasies weren't quite fulfilled.

I guess I'm in the minority but I absolutely love the astral projection. It illustrates the vast power of the Force without getting silly (throwing AT-ATs around). In a lot of ways the Force itself is the primary focus of this trilogy. Disney is pushing the franchise further into fantasy territory over it's previous soft sci-fi (fantasy) status.

It wouldn't surprise me to see Dave Filoni's post-Star Wars Rebels project revolve around the post-Return of the Jedi, pre-Force Awakens galaxy. Failures with Ben aside, I would really like to see those years dramatized.

The prospect of that excites me and I hope they're able to convince Hamill to voice Luke. I'm actually surprised that he's never portrayed the character in animated form (video games etc.) considering his extensive voice acting resume.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

I think most people expected Luke to die in this trilogy. If he'd done the exact thing he did in this film as a hologram as the real Luke and then died, I think it would have been more palatable to many. Unlike Obi Wan and Yoda who are already past it when we first meet them, I think many wanted to see one genuine (non-hologram) last hurrah from Luke as Jedi-Grandmaster before he went out. People have had their fantasies of what Luke could have achieved in all these years having seen him as Jedi master in RotJ and I guess for a fair number those personal fantasies weren't quite fulfilled.

That was never going to happen. Mark Hamill is 66 years old. He's older than Alec Guinness was in ANH.

 

[InCali]

I guess I'm in the minority but I absolutely love the astral projection. It illustrates the vast power of the Force without getting silly (throwing AT-ATs around). In a lot of ways the Force itself is the primary focus of this trilogy. Disney is pushing the franchise further into fantasy territory over it's previous soft sci-fi (fantasy) status.

It wouldn't surprise me to see Dave Filoni's post-Star Wars Rebels project revolve around the post-Return of the Jedi, pre-Force Awakens galaxy. Failures with Ben aside, I would really like to see those years dramatized.

The prospect of that excites me and I hope they're able to convince Hamill to voice Luke. I'm actually surprised that he's never portrayed the character in animated form (video games etc.) considering his extensive voice acting resume.

I liked it too. It was clever and different.

I still think his Force Ghost should hang out in Kylo's bedroom and sing 99 bottles all night, every night though....

 

[Iceman]

That was never going to happen. Mark Hamill is 66 years old. He's older than Alec Guinness was in ANH.

I wasn't talking about anything more than what he actually did do, just not as a hologram.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

I wasn't talking about anything more than what he actually did do, just not as a hologram.

Ah...understood. Sorry about that. But I do think a lot fans wanted something that they had no possibility of ever getting, which was a Luke in the middle of his prime.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

I liked it too. It was clever and different.

Same. I also loved it.

 

[Iceman]

Ah...understood. Sorry about that. But I do think a lot fans wanted something that they had no possibility of ever getting, which was a Luke in the middle of his prime.

Yeah, shame they couldn't have got the big 3 back in an earlier set of films. I was really glad about seeing Luke doing his badass thing here although I would have definitely preferred it without the hologram and seeing him die separately afterwards. And I think there's truth to fans wanting a lot more beyond what was possible after waiting so long.

 

[InCali]

I'm not entirely sure we will see a total wrap up at the end of Ep 9. Just because that's how it was done in the past doesn't necessarily mean it will always be that way.