The North Korean Situation II

[craigdbfan]

No, not at all. If anything things have gotten worse.

Japan set up Patriot defenses in Tokyo and the top admiral for the US military said North Korea was very much a threat and that we could shoot down any missile targeting the homeland, foreign bases and other US interests.

North Korea has evacuated their embassy in London. North Korea warned forigners in South Korea to evacuate due to the threat of nuclear war and the US and South Korea are now saying that North Korea will test their missile at any time.

 

[enterthemadness]

No, not at all. If anything things have gotten worse.

Japan set up Patriot defenses in Tokyo and the top admiral for the US military said North Korea was very much a threat and that we could shoot down any missile targeting the homeland, foreign bases and other US interests.

North Korea has evacuated their embassy in London. North Korea warned forigners in South Korea to evacuate due to the threat of nuclear war and the US and South Korea are now saying that North Korea will test their missile at any time.

Well....-_-....

 

[mikey1974]

wonderful. China still standing on the sidelines being all useless?

 

[IamtheBatman]

China's worried that if NK launches a nuclear missile than the US will launch one and wouldn't those nuclear winds affect China to and if NK hits Japan will Japan retaliate?

 

[mikey1974]

China's worried that if NK launches a nuclear missile than the US will launch one and wouldn't those nuclear winds affect China to and if NK hits Japan will Japan retaliate?

exactly. which is why they should be helping to try and resolve this.

 

[Hobgoblin]

Dick Cheney Comments on NK

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.co...ere-in-deep-doo-doo-on-north-korea/?hpt=hp_t1

 

[Thundercrack85]

China's worried that if NK launches a nuclear missile than the US will launch one and wouldn't those nuclear winds affect China to and if NK hits Japan will Japan retaliate?

It's a more long-term worry. Right now Japan does not have a military. It has a relatively small, but advanced self-defense force.

If North Korea keeps this crap up, Japan could rearm. And a 21st century Japanese military (especially a 21st century navy) would be rivaled only by the United States. That would really upset China's goal of becoming Asia's dominant power.

They'd still become it, but they'd have to deal with a militarily powerful Japan in their front yard.

 

[JJJ's Ulcer]

Dick Cheney Comments on NK

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.co...ere-in-deep-doo-doo-on-north-korea/?hpt=hp_t1

If there's one person we don't need to listen to on anything ever again, it's Dick.

 

[mikey1974]

If there's one person we don't need to listen to on anything ever again, it's Dick.

this

 

[DarkKnight88]

Especially anyone who uses the word "deep doo doo". Is he trying to be funny?

 

[JJJ's Ulcer]

Long story short: China is getting sick of North Korea's crap

I'm not even sure China can stop them at this point. But if anyone can....

 

[Destructus86]

Long story short: China is getting sick of North Korea's crap

I'm not even sure China can stop them at this point. But if anyone can....

They could if they wanted to. But I think they want other people to handle it so they don't have to spend the money on a war. China is already being more social to other nations...more than in the past. Even to us. They can see the winds are changing and they need to open up a bit to the rest of the world. NK is sinking fast.

 

[mikey1974]

I don't expect them to fight a war for us. or even with the US and SK. I just wanted them to say they don't support NK on this. take a stand already. cause they sure as hell don't want US land forces running all over the Korean peninsula,nor a long-term US presence in the immediate area ( besides the DMZ) right on their doorstep. yet that's exactly what will end up happening if it comes to war.

 

[JJJ's Ulcer]

They could if they wanted to. But I think they want other people to handle it so they don't have to spend the money on a war.

I'm not sure I'm following your logic. They're not worried about "spending money on a war." They're worried about a neighboring nuclear-powered nation that acts like an unpredictable mental-patient, a potentially unprecedented refugee crisis on their border if a war did break out, the fact that when NK acts up it pulls more US warships into the region and creates an excuse for more military drills and the simple fact such a destabilizing force in the region is a serious detriment to their own economy and future. Plus, NK would inevitably lose any war and America and South Korea would end up on their doorstep. If things get serious enough, China will buckle down hard on NK. They did it in 2003 when they cut off oil to the DPRK in order to get them to return to six-party talks. China is not interested in a war and if things get hot enough, they won't just sit back and wait for others to step in.

 

[Marvolo]

WASHINGTON — A new assessment of North Korea’s nuclear capability conducted by the Pentagon’s intelligence arm has concluded for the first time, with “moderate confidence,” that the country has learned how to make a nuclear weapon small enough to be delivered by a ballistic missile.

"They now have a deliverable warhead,” said Mark Fitzpatrick, a former State Department official now at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. “They don’t have anything that could reach American bases beyond Japan.”

www.nytimes.com/2013/04/12/world/as...r-missile-capability-us-agency-says.html?_r=0

 

[JJJ's Ulcer]

Going back to Seoul in a bit more than a week to start my new job with Samsung. How delightful. Permanent state of Cuban missile crisis here I come.

 

[Marvolo]

I wouldn't go anywhere near Korea for anything less than a 7 figure salary.

 

[JJJ's Ulcer]

I wouldn't go anywhere near Korea for anything less than a 7 figure salary.

I guess that's the difference between you and me then. My girlfriend and friends are over there. If something did occur (and I still think the odds are strongly against that) I'd want to be there with them.

 

[Thundercrack85]

I do wonder what would happen if North Korea did an atmospheric test with a nuclear warhead.

 

[JJJ's Ulcer]

I do wonder what would happen if North Korea did an atmospheric test with a nuclear warhead.

Radioactive fallout. I hope they're not that insane. What I worry about more than the actual regime firing a warhead at Seoul (or Japan or wherever) is an over-eager Strangelovian general who takes matter in to his own hands.

Anyway, my mom's freaking out about it (but not my dad or my girlfriend I should note), so I've agreed to give the US embassy my contact information in case they ever need to do an emergency evac.

 

[hippie_hunter]

I'm not sure I'm following your logic. They're not worried about "spending money on a war." They're worried about a neighboring nuclear-powered nation that acts like an unpredictable mental-patient, a potentially unprecedented refugee crisis on their border if a war did break out, the fact that when NK acts up it pulls more US warships into the region and creates an excuse for more military drills and the simple fact such a destabilizing force in the region is a serious detriment to their own economy and future. Plus, NK would inevitably lose any war and America and South Korea would end up on their doorstep. If things get serious enough, China will buckle down hard on NK. They did it in 2003 when they cut off oil to the DPRK in order to get them to return to six-party talks. China is not interested in a war and if things get hot enough, they won't just sit back and wait for others to step in.

In my opinion, I think that China is starting to realize that they would be just better off without North Korea.

The thought that America would be on their doorstep if North Korea collapsed is an antiquated one IMO. US forces are hated in South Korea and their presence is only barely tolerated because of the threat that North Korea poses. The moment that North Korea ceases to be, the South Korean government will inevitably demand that American forces withdraw as immediate as possible. And if they don't, they will be voted out of office and replaced by a new government that will do so. China has to be smart enough to know that without North Korea, that there is no future for the American military based in a united Korea.

China also has to be smart to know that a united Korea would be the best way to expand their influence. South Korea isn't going to be able pick up the tab to fix the damage the Kim regime has done to the North and deep down, they probably don't want to do it. However, international and domestic pressure along with the precedence of West Germany absorbing East Germany would force South Korea to absorb North Korea. They're going to need aid to rebuild the north and China will be in the best position to help rebuild the Korean Peninsula and provide new opportunities for Chinese businesses to expand into new markets and increase Chinese influence tremendously in the region. A united Korea that is pro-China is a much more favorable than an insane North Korea and a South Korea that has American forces based in the region.

Also, South Korea is just far more valuable to China than North Korea is. South Korea is China's fourth largest trading partner after the European Union, United States, and Japan (two of these partners are also anti-North Korea as well).

The logic just points to that sooner or later, China will come to realize this and I personally don't see North Korea having a long lasting future.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

But if the US military is instrumental in defeating NK you better believe they'll be allowed to estsblish a base in Korea for many more years.

 

[Marvolo]

I guess that's the difference between you and me then. My girlfriend and friends are over there. If something did occur (and I still think the odds are strongly against that) I'd want to be there with them.

Well I didn't know you had family there. I thought you were just an expat doing a job.

I still wouldn't want to go there, but I get where your coming from.

 

[hippie_hunter]

But it the US military is instrumental in defeating NK you better believe they'll be allowed to estsblish a base there for many more years.

The South Korean government would never consider allowing the US to stay in a united Korea. They would get voted out immediately if they didn't demand the US to leave after North Korea is defeated.

 

[JJJ's Ulcer]

In my opinion, I think that China is starting to realize that they would be just better off without North Korea.

I agree. I'm sure they regret that whole interference they pulled off in the first Korean war that basically caused the divided situation that endures today.

The thought that America would be on their doorstep if North Korea collapsed is an antiquated one IMO.

Yes and no. They definitely wouldn't be pleased with the US on their doorstep, but I'm sure they'd come to some agreement about a buffer-zone or whatever between the upmost Korean border and China. Leaked wikileak diplomatic cables do confirm the Chinese were discussing this with the US. A stable US and Korean presence on their border is probably, pros and cons taken into consideration, preferred to their current situation.

US forces are hated in South Korea and their presence is only barely tolerated because of the threat that North Korea poses.

I think you're overstating it a bit. There was only one real anti-American flare-up in 2002 and that was when an army truck ran over a couple schoolgirls. You're making it sound like it's Saudi Arabia. Some fringe-nationalists hate them and the media sometimes does a negative report about the behavior of soldiers during their R&R (some of it deserved), but most people seem indifferent to their presence. They don't like them; they just don't care. And what antipathy is aimed at the US army presence doesn't extend to teachers or businessmen who work there. I've worked in Seoul for 5 years and only had one really racist encounter. If you want to know what country is hated in South Korea, it's Japan. They really REALLY hate Japan.

The moment that North Korea ceases to be, the South Korean government will inevitably demand that American forces withdraw as immediate as possible. And if they don't, they will be voted out of office and replaced by a new government that will do so. China has to be smart enough to know that without North Korea, that there is no future for the American military based in a united Korea.

I think you're leaping to too many unsupported what-ifs. The US is still in Germany even though they've been reunified for over 20 years.

China also has to be smart to know that a united Korea would be the best way to expand their influence. South Korea isn't going to be able pick up the tab to fix the damage the Kim regime has done to the North and deep down, they probably don't want to do it. However, international and domestic pressure along with the precedence of West Germany absorbing East Germany would force South Korea to absorb North Korea. They're going to need aid to rebuild the north and China will be in the best position to help rebuild the Korean Peninsula and provide new opportunities for Chinese businesses to expand into new markets and increase Chinese influence tremendously in the region. A united Korea that is pro-China is a much more favorable than an insane North Korea and a South Korea that has American forces based in the region.

Also, South Korea is just far more valuable to China than North Korea is. South Korea is China's fourth largest trading partner after the European Union, United States, and Japan (two of these partners are also anti-North Korea as well).

The logic just points to that sooner or later, China will come to realize this and I personally don't see North Korea having a long lasting future.

But the collapse and rebuilding of the North will be a brutal slog. I'm not sure China wants to foot the bill for that, especially in the face of their own growing economic troubles. There's also the inevitable refugee crisis that would result from hundreds of thousands of North Koreans fleeing across the Yalu river into China. I also don't know why you think Koreans would like a Chinese presence anymore than a US presence. China, while not hated on the level of Japan, is thought of in derogatory terms as "dirty" and a "bully" and they haven't forgotten the fact it's been propping up the DPRK for six decades.